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This research was supported by Economic and Social Research Council grant ES/K007394/1 and carried out in the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC). The effects of COVID-19 are likely to be social stratified. Disease control measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic mean that people spend much more time in their immediate households, due to lockdowns, the need to self-isolate, and school and workplace closures. This has elevated the importance of certain household–level characteristics for individuals’ current and future wellbeing. The multi-dimensional poverty and health inequalities literature suggests that poor health and socio-economic conditions cluster in the general population, which may exacerbate societal inequalities over time. This study investigates how COVID-19-related health- and socio-economic vulnerabilities occur at the household level, and how they are distributed across household types and geographical areas in the United Kingdom. Using a nationally representative cross-sectional study of UK households and applying principal components analysis, we derived summary measures representing different dimensions of household vulnerabilities critical during the COVID-19 epidemic: health, employment, housing, financial and digital. Our analysis highlights four key findings. First, although COVID-19-related health risks are concentrated in retirement-age households, a substantial proportion of working age households also face these risks. Second, different types of households exhibit different vulnerabilities, with working-age households more likely to face financial and housing precarities, and retirement-age households health and digital vulnerabilities. Third, there are area-level differences in the distribution of household-level -vulnerabilities across England and the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Fourth, in many households, different dimensions of vulnerabilities intersect; this is especially prevalent among working-age households. The findings imply that the short- and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to significantly vary by household type. Policy measures that aim to mitigate the health and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic should consider how vulnerabilities cluster and interact with one another across different household types, and how these may exacerbate already existing inequalities. Publisher PDF

Objective: This paper studies postseparation fertility behavior. The aim is to investigate whether, and if so how, separation affects second birth spacing in Western European countries. Methods: This analysis makes use of rich survey data from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, as well as from Finnish register data. We thus cover the behavior of a large proportion of the population of Western Europe. We also use descriptive measures, such as Kaplan¿Meier survival functions and cumulative incidence curves. In the multivariate analysis, we employ event history modeling to show how education relates to postseparation fertility behavior. Results: There are large differences in postseparation fertility behavior across European countries. For Spain and Italy, we find that only a negligibly small proportion of the population have a second child after separating from the other parent of the firstborn child. The countries with the highest proportion of second children with a new partner are the United Kingdom, Germany, and Finland. In all countries, separation after first birth leads to a sharp increase in the birth interval between first and second births. Contribution: Our study is a contribution to the demographic literature that aims at understanding birth spacing patterns in Western Europe. Furthermore, we draw attention to the role of postseparation policies in explaining country differences in fertility behavior in contemporary societies., The research leading to these results received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 320116 for the research project FamiliesAndSocieties. We also acknowledge funds from the Academy of Finland (decision number 275030 and 293103) and the German Science Foundation (KR 2855/3–1 and TR 457/7–1). This paper was presented at the Annual Conference of the Population Association of America (PAA) in San Diego in April 2015 and at the IUSSP-International Seminar “Separation, Divorce, Repartnering and Remarriage around the World” in Montreal in May 2015. We are grateful for the many valuable comments that we received at these meetings. We would particularly like to thank Elizabeth Thomson and Trude Lappegård for their insightful input. For language editing, we are grateful to Renée Lüskow and Lena Klein. Any remaining errors are ours

Recent research has found a migrant mortality advantage among immigrants relative to the UK-born population living in England and Wales. However, while all-cause mortality is useful to show differences in mortality between immigrants and the host population, it can mask variation in mortality patterns from specific causes of death. This study analyses differences in the causes of death among immigrants living in England and Wales. We extend previous research by applying competing-risks survival analysis to study a large-scale longitudinal dataset from 1971 to 2012 to directly compare causes of death. We confirm low all-cause mortality among nearly all immigrants, except immigrants from Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (who have high mortality). In most cases, low all-cause mortality among immigrants is driven by lower mortality from chronic diseases (in nearly all cases by lower cancer mortality and in some cases by lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD)). This low all-cause mortality often coexists with low respiratory disease mortality and among non-western immigrants, coexists with high mortality from infectious diseases; however, these two causes of death contribute little to mortality among immigrants. For men, CVD is the leading cause of death (particularly among South Asians). For women, cancer is the leading cause of death (except among South Asians, for whom CVD is also the leading cause). Differences in CVD mortality over time remain constant between immigrants relative to UK-born, but immigrant cancer patterns shows signs of some convergence to the cancer mortality among the UK-born (though cancer mortality is still low among immigrants by age 80). The study provides the most up-to-date, reliable UK-based analysis of immigrant mortality.

Previous research shows low mortality for most immigrants compared to natives in host countries. This advantage is often attributed to health selection processes in migration and to protective health behaviours. Little research has examined the role of data quality, especially the registration of moves. Registration errors relating to moves between origin and host countries can mismatch deaths and risk populations, leading to denominator bias and an under-estimation of migrant mortality (data artefact). The paper investigates the mortality of immigrants in England and Wales from 1971 to 2001 using the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS LS), a 1% sample of the population of England and Wales. We apply parametric survival models to study the mortality of 450,000 individuals. We conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of entry and exit uncertainty on immigrant mortality rates. The analysis shows that most international migrants have lower mortality than natives in England and Wales. Differences largely persist when we adjust models to entry and exit uncertainty and they become pronounced once we control for individual socioeconomic characteristics. This study supports low mortality among immigrants and shows that results are not a data artefact.

This study examines fertility variation by residential context in Britain. While there is a large literature on fertility trends and determinants in industrialised countries, to date longitudinal research on spatial fertility variation has been restricted to the Nordic countries. We study fertility variation across regions of different sizes, and within urban regions by distinguishing between central cities and suburbs. We use vital statistics and longitudinal data and apply event history analysis. We investigate the extent to which the socio-economic characteristics of couples and selective migrations explain fertility variation between residential contexts, and the extent to which contextual factors potentially play a role. Our analysis shows that fertility levels decline as the size of an urban area increases; within urban regions suburbs have significantly higher fertility levels than city centres. Differences in fertility by residential context persist when we control for the effect of population composition and selective migrations. Publisher PDF

Fertility rates are known to be higher in city suburbs. One interpretation is that the suburban ‘context’ influences the behaviour of individuals who reside there while an alternative is that the ‘composition’ of the suburban population explains the higher fertility levels. Furthermore, suburban in-migrants who intend to have children may have a significant influence on suburban fertility rates. Using Finnish longitudinal register data we show that fertility rates are higher in the suburbs and rural areas and lower in the cities. Fertility variation across these residential contexts decreases significantly after controlling for women’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics. However, it does not disappear entirely suggesting that the local context may have some influence on fertility. While movers to suburbs do display higher fertility levels than non-migrant residents, their overall impact is not great because they form a small share of the suburban population.

This article is an introduction to Special Collection 6 of Demographic Research whose articles investigate the interrelations between the family and migration behaviour of individuals in industrialised countries. We first review the life-course approach and previous research on the interplay between family change and migration. We then describe the contribution of the articles in the collection. This is followed by a discussion of selected issues raised in the papers and an outline of future research avenues. We argue that the life-course approach and event-history analysis offer a fruitful framework to examine how individuals simultaneously structure their family lives and residential trajectories and thus shape demographic change in society. (authors)

A growing body of literature looks at the consequences of family migration from a gender perspective. The studies show that women’s economic well-being and employment suffer from family migration, which is usually stimulated by the career of the male earner in the family. This study extends current research on the subject by examining the effect of family migration on union dissolution. We use the event-history data of two retrospective surveys from Russia and apply hazard regression. The analysis shows that couples who move frequently over long distances have a significantly higher risk of union dissolution than couples who do not move or move only once. Our further analysis reveals that the risk of disruption for frequent movers is high when the migrant woman has a job. Frequent migrants had a high risk of union dissolution in the Soviet period but not so during the post-Soviet socio-economic transition. We argue that frequent moving increases union instability through a variety of mechanisms, the effect of which may vary across socio-economic contexts, however.

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionEuropean countries are witnessing increases in immigration streams and the ethnic heterogeneity of their populations (Castles and Miller 2009). A large body of literature has examined various aspects of immigrants' lives in Europe, including their employment and education (Adsera and Chiswick 2007; Kogan 2007; Rebhun 2010; Rendall et al. 2010), health and mortality (Sole-Auro and Crimmins 2008; Wengler 2011; Hannemann 2012), residential and housing patterns (Musterd 2005; Arbaci 2008), legal status and citizenship (Seifert 1997; Baubock 2003; Howard 2005), and linguistic, cultural, and religious diversity (Foner and Alba 2008; Gungor, Fleischmann, and Phalet 2011). The recent literature has also exhibited an increasing interest in the study of family dynamics and patterns among immigrants and their descendants. One stream of research examines the formation and dissolution of exogamous marriages in Europe, with the aim of deepening our understanding of the factors that influence the spread and stability of mixed marriages and their role in immigrant integration (Coleman 1994; Gonzalez-Ferrer 2006; Kalmijn and Tubergen 2006; Dribe and Lundh 2012; Milewski and Kulu 2014). Another stream investigates fertility dynamics among immigrants and their descendants (Andersson 2004; Toulemon 2004; Milewski 2007; Kulu and Milewski 2007; Coleman and Dubuc 2010; Goldscheider, Goldscheider, and Bernhardt 2011).The aim of the current paper is to investigate the union formation and dissolution of immigrants and their descendants in the UK and to compare their patterns to those of the 'native' British population.3 We extend the previous literature in the following ways. First, we study various partnership transitions among immigrants and their descendants, including formation and dissolution of cohabitations and marriages. Further, we study the formation and dissolution of both the first and second unions. We thus move beyond the 'one-life-event-at-a-time' approach, which is dominant in the literature on migrant families. We believe that the study of several partnership events over the life course provides us with much richer information about the opportunities and constraints that migrants face than does an analysis of only one (or of the first) marriage of the migrants.Second, we examine family trajectories among the descendants of migrants, whose share has significantly increased in the last decades in the UK and other European countries (Sobotka and Toulemon 2008). Research has shown that the fate of the 'second generation' is not as rosy as we may wish. Their educational qualifications often remain below those of the majority population, and their labour market performance is often poor (Fassmann 1997; Alba 2005; Meurs, Pailhe, and Simon 2006; Aparicio 2007; Brinbaum and Cebolla-Boado 2007; Van Niekerk 2007; Kristen, Reimer, and Kogan 2008; Aeberhardt et al. 2010; Fibbi, Lerch, and Wanner 2007). The current study provides information on the demographic behaviour of important population subgroups in the UK and will improve our understanding of how various factors shape the fate of the 'second generation' in the European context. This information will be valuable for the development of future integration policies.Third, to our knowledge, this is the first study on union formation among immigrants and ethnic minorities in the UK that explicitly compares their partnership trajectories to those of the native population from the longitudinal and life course perspectives. Although the dynamics of mixed marriages and fertility of ethnic minorities in Britain have been examined (Coleman 1994; Coleman and Dubuc 2010; Feng et al. 2012; Hampshire, Blell, and Simpson 2012), the topics of union formation and dissolution, and particularly the rise of cohabitation, have not been covered in the recent literature (for earlier cross-sectional research, see Berrington 1994; 1996). …

Researchers are divided on the trends and causes of internal migration in postsocialist Central and Eastern Europe. Theories run in opposite directions: some scholars argue that increasing similarities with Western market economies are explaining the migration processes, whereas others claim that specific developments during the postsocialist socioeconomic restructuring are playing a major role. In this paper we contribute to the existing discussion by providing an analysis of personal and contextual determinants of migration to urban and rural destinations in post-Soviet Estonia. We base our study on the data of the Estonian Labour Force Survey from 1995. Our research population consists of 8480 people aged 15 years to 68 years in early 1989. We analyze the intensity of urban-bound and rural-bound migration from January 1989 to December 1994, using the techniques of multilevel event-history analysis. We show that personal characteristics (age, marital status, employment status, education, and ethnicity) and contextual factors (unemployment level and the share of ethnic minorities) are both important in shaping the intensity of migration to urban and rural destinations in post-Soviet Estonia. Although the differences in migration behaviour by demographic characteristics in Estonia are in line with universalistic explanations, the regionally varying effect of socioeconomic status on migration is specific to developments in postsocialist countries, as a result of general economic hardship during the socioeconomic transition.

Research on the residential and housing differences of urban populations in post-second world war Central and Eastern Europe has a tradition extending back to the 1960s. Most studies have focused on the Polish, Czech and Hungarian (large) cities using aggregatelevel data and testing simultaneously the impact of a few factors on residential and housing differences. This research clarifies the housing differences in the late Soviet era of Tartu (the second largest city in Estonia). Using the individual-level data of the 1989 Soviet census and multivariate methods, the article demonstrates that several factors (age, education, occupation, employment sector, ethnic origin, place of origin) shape the individual's housing and living conditions in the late Soviet period in Tartu. On the one hand, the results support the importance of the policy of different institutions (state, enterprises) in shaping people's living conditions; on the other hand, they also point to people's resources and desires as the cause. Depuis les annees 1960, on trouve regulierement des recherches sur les differences de quartier et de logement des populations urbaines dans l'Europe centrale et orientale de l'apres-guerre. La plupart des etudes sont consacrees aux (grandes) villes polonaises, tcheques et hongroises, a partir de donnees globales, et testent simultanement l'impact de quelques facteurs sur les differences de quartier et de logement. Cet article eclaire les differences d'habitat a Tartu (deuxieme ville d'Estonie) vers la fin de l'ere sovietique. Se basant sur les donnees individuelles du recensement sovietique de 1989 et sur des methodes multivariables, il demontre que plusieurs facteurs (âge, instruction, emploi, secteur d'activite, origine ethnique, lieu de naissance) configurent les conditions de logement et de vie des habitants de Tartu a cette epoque. D'un cote, les resultats confirment l'importance de la politique de diverses institutions (etat, entreprises) dans les conditions de vie de la population; de l'autre, ils revelent aussi comme cause les ressources et aspirations des gens.

Conventional research has used aggregate statistics and bivariate methods in studying migration in Soviet society and has stressed the critical role of a single (usually structural) determinant in an individuals migration. This research tests the dominant view using individual level data and multivariate methods. The objective is to clarify the extent to which structural-environmental factors and the extent to which personal characteristics determined the first residence and migration of Russian-born Estonians in post-war Estonia. The data of the retrospective survey on 265 ethnic Estonians born in Russia between 1915 and 1969 and settled in Estonia between 1940 and 1988 are used. It appears that the first residence and migration of the ethnic Estonians was shaped by an immigration cohort -- the variable reflecting structural-environmental conditions. However several personal characteristics -- age earlier life-environment language usage and education -- also turned out to be important determinants of residence and migration of the ethnic Estonians. The results provide evidence to the view that migration in the Soviet Union was a complex outcome of interaction of structural forces and peoples references and therefore differed less from other parts of the world than often presumed. (authors)

Two European geographers survey the change in numbers, location, and composition of Estonia's non-titular population utilizing census returns for the period 1934-2000. Much attention is devoted to an investigation of return migration of non-Estonians to other FSU republics in the 1990s. Also covered are changes in the spatial distribution of Estonia's minorities and the dynamics of age structure as a result of its natural evolution, the sharp decline in fertility, and emigration of younger cohorts. Additionally, the authors also investigate trends in employment affecting the country's principal ethnic minorities. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J10, J11, R23. 8 figures, 3 tables, 56 references.

International migration studies in Europe have been mainly directed at immigration in Western and Northern Europe from Southern Europe and Third World countries in the 1950s-60s. However return migration to Estonia during the period after re-independence (1991) has not yet been explored. The situation in Estonia is particularly interesting in the context of 1990s European return migration. This is because Estonia is one of the countries in Europe where return migrants have a varied emigration background and it already has a return migration experience that took place prior to the 1990s. This article seeks to clarify the scope of return migration of Estonians in the 1990s and to analyze the essence of return migration and the factors that have an impact on it. It begins with a short overview of the formation and condition of the Estonian diaspora at the end of the 1980s and an observation of the return migration of the 1990s. Data are drawn upon the databases of the National Computing Centre (Population Register) and the Estonian Citizenship and Migration Board as well as census data of the countries residence of the diaspora Estonians. Moreover the return of the diaspora Estonians to Estonia is analyzed on the basis of the data from a questionnaire completed by 106 returning Estonians.

In this article the author examines the role an individuals early growth environment plays in her/his later migration behavior. The research subjects are ethnic Estonians from Russia living within Estonia. The author compares different groups of foreign-born Estonians in their choices of residence by variables reflecting their early growth environment. The results support the hypothesis that the socialization variables significantly impact the choice of residence of foreign-born Estonians. The chance that foreign-borns would live in North Estonia and urban areas compared with South Estonia and rural areas is much higher in ethnic return migrants whose parents level of education was/is higher whose parental home was Russian-speaking and who grew up in cities. Thus the results of the research enable us to argue that the social environment not only influences an individuals migration behavior directly but also indirectly through the growth environment of her/his childhood. (authors)

Recently there has been growing interest among scholars in ethnic return migration. This article examines return migration during the post World War 2 period of descendants of Estonians who emigrated to Russia at the end of the nineteenth and at the beginning of the twentieth century. A case of return migration of West-Siberian Estonians from the Omsk province is used as an example. Structuration theory is adopted and return migration is treated as a behavioural norm that evolves, spreads and becomes embedded within an ethnic minority living outside its homeland. The research shows that in the case of West-Siberian Estonians the main carrier of the migration behavioural norm is a generation. The behavioural norm of Estonians born in the 1910s-1920s has been return migration to Estonia, while the migration behaviour of the 1930s-1940s and the 1950s-1960s generations can be characterized by urbanization in West Siberia. Behind these inter-generation differences in migration behaviour can be found the different socialization of the generations, appearing largely on the level of practical consciousness. The results give reason to assume that ethnic return migration over a long period depends neither directly nor indirectly on momentary environmental changes, but rather on changes in people’s values, habits, identity etc., which in the case of an ethnic minority living outside its historical homeland may be followed generation by generation.

Over the past decades Europe has witnessed fundamental changes of its population dynamics and population structure. Fertility has fallen below replacement level in almost all European countries, while childbearing behavior and family formation have become more diverse. Life expectancy has increased in Western Europe for both females and males, but has been declining for men in some Eastern European countries. Immigration from non-European countries has increased substantially, as has mobility within Europe. These changes pose major challenges to population studies, as conventional theoretical assumptions regarding demographic behavior and demographic development seem unfit to provide convincing explanations of the recent demographic changes.This book, derived from the symposium on “The Demography of Europe” held at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany in November 2007 in honor of Professor Jan M. Hoem, brings together leading population researchers in the area of fertility, family, migration, life-expectancy, and mortality. The contributions present key issues of the new demography of Europe and discuss key research advances to understand the continent’s demographic development at the turn of the 21st century.

Over the past decades Europe has witnessed fundamental changes of its population dynamics and population structure. These changes pose major challenges to population studies, as conventional theoretical assumptions regarding demographic behavior and demographic development seem unfit to provide convincing explanations of the recent demographic changes. This book, derived from the symposium on “The Demography of Europe” held at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, in 2007 in honor of Professor Jan M. Hoem, brings together leading population researchers in the area of fertility, family, migration, life expectancy, and mortality. The contributions present key issues of the new Demography of Europe and discuss research advances to understand the continent’s demographic development at the turn of the 21st century.

This study examines fertility variation across housing types and childbearing patterns following housing changes. While the effect of family changes on housing choices has been studied in detail little is known about childbearing patterns within various housing types and this despite the fact that many studies suggest housing to be an important determinant of fertility. We use longitudinal register data from Finland and apply hazard regression. First we observe a significant variation in fertility levels across housing types - fertility is highest among couples living in single-family houses and lowest among those residing in apartments with the variation remaining significant even after controlling for the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of women. Second our results show elevated fertility levels after couples have changed dwellings suggesting that much of the fertility variation across housing types is attributed to selective moves. Third the study reveals a relatively highrisk of third birth for couples in single-family houses several years after the move. This suggests that living in spacious housing and in a family-friendly environment for a relatively long time leads to higher fertility. (authors)

There is a growing body of literature that looks at the causes of below-replacement fertility in developed countries. While the variation in childbearing patterns across countries and between socio-economic groups within a country has been studied in detail, little is known about the differences in fertility patterns across settlements within a country. A few recent studies suggest that there are persistent differentials between high- and low-fertility settlements in contemporary Europe. This study examines fertility variation across settlements in four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We base our study on aggregate and individual-level register data. We first examine annual total and parity-specific fertility across settlement type from the mid-1970s to the early twenty-first century. We proceed to study the relative contribution of the socio-economic characteristics of the local populations and the characteristics of the settlements to this variation, using hazard regression models.

Previous research has proposed four competing views on an individual's fertility following a move from one social context to another. Each view has received support but has also been challenged in the literature. This study contributes to the existing discussion on fertility by providing an analysis of the effects of internal migration on the fertility of post-war Austrian and Polish female cohorts. The study is based on retrospective event-history data and applies intensity regression to both single and simultaneous equations. The analysis shows, firstly, that natives in urban areas in general and in large cities in particular have lower fertility compared with non-migrants in rural areas, both in Austria and Poland. Secondly, it reveals that people who move from one place to another adopt the fertility behaviour that dominates at the destination. Thirdly, we observe an elevated first-birth risk for women who move because of union formation, and a short-term postponement of childbearing for those who settle in a large city. The country comparison shows some differences in fertility variation across settlements, but overall the results are quite similar, despite the different post-war societal contexts of the two countries. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Competing views exist concerning the impact of geographical mobility on childbearing patterns. Early research shows that internal migrants largely exhibit fertility levels dominant in their childhood environment, while later studies find migrants’ fertility to resemble more closely that of natives at destination. Some authors attribute the latter to adaptation, but others claim that selection of migrants by fertility preferences may be the cause. Moreover, the short-term fertility-lowering-effect of residential relocation has also been proposed and challenged in the literature. This paper contributes to the existing discussion by providing an analysis of the effect of internal migration on fertility of post-war Estonian female cohorts. We base our study on retrospective event-history data and apply intensity regression for both single and simultaneous equations. Our analysis shows that first, the risk of birth decreases with increasing settlement size and the decrease is larger for higher-order parities. Second, it shows that migrants, whatever their origin, exhibit fertility levels similar to those of non-migrants at destination. Our further analysis supports the adaptation hypothesis. We find no evidence on strong selectivity of migrants by fertility preferences, although we observe elevated fertility levels after residential relocations arsing from union formation.