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Rapid growth and globalization of the domestic economy have dramatically accelerated urbanization in China, resulting in significant environmental impacts and challenges for sustainable development. Using a multistate model accounting for distributional aspects of age, sex, education, and migration in rural and urban regions, we estimate the magnitude of urbanization in China through 2030 and examine some major associated sustainability issues. Results indicate that: (1) for a range of assumptions, China’s urban population will nearly double from 2000 to 2030; (2) the labor force will constitute a larger share of total population in urban areas than rural due to internal migration of younger workers—this appears particularly true for the mega-urban metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai; (3) rural populations will experience more aging than urban; and (4) level of education among China’s rural labor force will remain low, which could pressure China’s industrial structural transition from an agricultural to a service-based economy.

Growing population, rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and changing consumption preferences stimulate intensification of livestock production and excessive fertilization of crops in China. We present an innovative approach that sheds light on options to prevent negative environmental consequences of food production. Trends indicate that agricultural production expansion will take place in “profitable” locations around densely populated areas, where there are generally insufficient natural resources to recycle production wastes. This will likely lead to increased environmental impacts and risks to human health, with the largest impacts in close proximity to population hotspots. We identify trends in Chinese agricultural production and devise and compare feasible mitigation scenarios. We present a spatial allocation procedure that facilitates management of agricultural production expansion, accounting for environmental and health constraints. This procedure, based on behavioral principles, uses a spatial risk preference structure induced by local conditions, including environment, production, and demand, with important research and policy implications.

Existing research inadequately explains the factors that drive temporary internal migration in China. Using data for 2005 drawn from 1,903 households in 43 rural villages, we calculate binomial and multinomial logit (BL, MNL) models of probabilities that an adult belongs to one of three categories of worker-on-farm, off-farm, or temporary migrant-as a function of individual and household characteristics. We control for village fixed effects, paying close attention to male/female differences. Nearly all coefficients-even for village dummies-vary significantly by sex. For two variables-age and schooling-the relationships are non-linear. There is an optimal age and amount of schooling that maximizes the probability that a worker will be employed away from the family farm. For schooling, this is low, suggesting that educated workers are underemployed. This might indicate that schooling beyond primary grades is poor quality, or at least inappropriate for the job market.

This paper applies methods of probabilistic population forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of China’s future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of China’s current fertility level (with published figures ranging from 1.2 to 2.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. The model applied in this paper will be based on assumed uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of China’s population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also for considerations on a global scale.

Background China has a national policy regulating the number of children that a woman is allowed to have. The central concept at the individual level application is "illegal pregnancy". The purpose of this article is to describe and problematicize the concept of illegal pregnancy and its use in practice. Methods Original texts and previous published and unpublished reports and statistics were used. Results By 1979 the Chinese population policy was clearly a policy of controlling population growth. For a pregnancy to be legal, it has to be defined as such according to the family-level eligibility rules, and in some places it has to be within the local quota. Enforcement of the policy has been pursued via the State Family Planning (FP) Commission and the Communist Party (CP), both of which have a functioning vertical structure down to the lowest administrative units. There are various incentives and disincentives for families to follow the policy. An extensive system has been created to keep the contraceptive use and pregnancy status of all married women at reproductive age under constant surveillance. In the early 1990s FP and CP officials were made personally responsible for meeting population targets. Since 1979, abortion has been available on request, and the ratio of legal abortions to birth increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. Similar to what happens in other Asian countries with low fertility rates and higher esteem for boys, both national- and local-level data show that an unnaturally greater number of boys than girls are registered as having been born. Conclusion Defining a pregnancy as "illegal" and carrying out the surveillance of individual women are phenomena unique in China, but this does not apply to other features of the policy. The moral judgment concerning the policy depends on the basic question of whether reproduction should be considered as an individual or social decision.