Search

Significance We are experiencing the accelerated loss and reconfiguration of biological diversity. Meanwhile, those charged with natural resource management are struggling to meet the challenges of monitoring and managing wildlife populations across vast areas crisscrossed by political borders. What if, akin to weather maps, we could track and forecast the dynamics of wildlife populations across space and time? Using the world’s most extensive large carnivore monitoring program, we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit quantification of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation., The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world’s largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes.

1. Selection for crypsis has been recognized as an important ecological driver of animal colouration, whereas the relative importance of thermoregulation is more contentious with mixed empirical support. A potential thermal advantage of darker individuals has been observed in a wide range of animal species. Arctic animals that exhibit colour polymorphisms and undergo seasonal colour moults are interesting study subjects for testing the two alternative hypotheses: demographic performance of different colour morphs might be differentially affected by snow cover with a cryptic advantage for lighter morphs, or conversely by winter temperature with a thermal advantage for darker morphs. 2. In this study, we explored whether camouflage and thermoregulation might explain differences in reproduction and survival between the white and blue colour morphs of the Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus under natural conditions. 3. Juvenile and adult survival, breeding propensity and litter size were measured for 798 captive-bred and released or wild-born Arctic foxes monitored during an 11-year period (2007–2017) in two subpopulations in south-central Norway. We investigated the proportion of the two colour morphs and compared their demographic performance in relation to spatial variation in duration of snow cover, onset of snow season and winter temperatures. 4. After population re-establishment, a higher proportion of blue individuals was observed among wild-born Arctic foxes compared to the proportion of blue foxes released from the captive population. Our field study provides the first evidence for an effect of colour morph on the reproductive performance of Arctic foxes under natural conditions, with a higher breeding propensity of the blue morph compared to the white one. Performance of the two colour morphs was not differentially affected by the climatic variables, except for juvenile survival. Blue morph juveniles showed a tendency for higher survival under colder winter temperatures but lower survival under warmer temperatures compared to white morph juveniles. 5. Overall, our findings do not consistently support predictions of the camouflage or the thermoregulation hypotheses. The higher success of blue foxes suggests an advantage of the dark morph not directly related to disruptive selection by crypsis or thermoregulation. Our results rather point to physiological adaptations and behavioural traits not necessarily connected to thermoregulation, such as stress response, immune function, sexual behaviour and aggressiveness. Our findings highlight the need to explore the potential role of genetic linkage or pleiotropy in influencing the fitness of white and blue Arctic foxes as well as other species with colour polymorphisms. apparent survival, Arctic fox, camouflage, capture–mark– recapture models, colour polymorphism, fitness, reproductive performance, snow cover This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society

Knowledge about the connectivity among natural populations is essential to identify management units for effective conservation actions. Conservation-minded management has led to the recovery of large carnivore populations in northern Europe, possibly restoring connectivity between the two separated, but expanding brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations on the Scandinavian peninsula to the west and Karelia, a part of the large Eurasian population, to the east. The degree of connectivity between these populations has been poorly understood, therefore we investigated the extent of connectivity between the two populations using autosomal microsatellites and Y chromosome haplotypes in 924 male bears (the dispersing sex), sampled during a period of 12 years (2005–2017) across the transborder area where these two populations meet. Our results showed that the two populations are not genetically isolated as reported in earlier studies. We detected recent asymmetrical gene flow at a rate (individuals per generation) of 4.6–5.5 (1%) from Karelia into Scandinavia, whereas the rate was approximately 27.1–34.5 (8%) in the opposite direction. We estimated historical gene flow of effective number of migrants to be between 1.7 and 2.5 between the populations. Analyses of Y chromosome markers supported these results. Successful recovery and expansion of both populations led to the restoration of connectivity, however, it is asymmetric, possibly due to different recovery histories and population densities. By aligning monitoring between neighboring countries, we were able to better understand the biological processes across the relevant spatial scale. Brown bear Genetic structure Male gene flow Microsatellites Migration Recovery Ursus arctos Wildlife monitoring Y chromosome

The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population in Fennoscandia experienced a drastic bottleneck in the late 19th century as a result of high hunting pressure. In the 1990s, despite nearly 70 years of protection, the population showed no signs of recovery. In order to mitigate the population decline and facilitate re-establishment, conservation actions including supplementary feeding and red fox culling were implemented in 1998, followed by the reintroduction of foxes from a captive breeding programme, starting in 2006. A positive demographic impact of these actions is evident from a doubling of the population size over the past decade. We used genetic data collected in eight subpopulations between 2008 and 2015 to address whether the recent demographic recovery has been complemented by changes in genetic variation and connectivity between subpopulations. Our results show that genetic variation within subpopulations has increased considerably during the last decade, while genetic differentiation among subpopulations has decreased. A marked shift in metapopulation dynamics is evident during the study period, suggesting substantially increased migration across the metapopulation. This shift followed the recolonization of an extinct subpopulation through the release of foxes from the captive breeding programme and was synchronized in time with the implementation of supplementary feeding and red fox culling in stepping stone patches between core subpopulations in mid-Scandinavia. Indeed, the increase in genetic variation and connectivity in the Scandinavian arctic fox population suggests that metapopulation dynamics have been restored, which may indicate an increase in the long-term viability of the population. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons CC-BY license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Estimating wildlife population size is fundamental for wildlife management and conservation. However, making monitoring of population size less resource demanding while still keeping a high monitoring accuracy and precision remains a recurrent challenge. One proposed alternative to count individuals is to instead focus on counting a segment of the population that is easier to monitor but at the same time well informative on total population size. We show how total population size can be estimated from group counts by using an individual-based population model in a social living species. We developed a wolf ( Canis lupus ) specific Individual Based Model and used Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to fit this population model to the time series of annual number of packs, reproductions and pairs obtained from Scandinavian monitoring data. Model informative priors were obtained with data from collared individuals by the Scandinavian wolf research project. The fitted model was then used to estimate a conversion factor from number of packs to total number of individuals and to number of reproductions. There was a good fit between the retained simulations by ABC and the observed Scandinavian wolf population trajectory. The fitted simulations returned a conversion factor of 8.0 (95% CI = 6.62–10.07) from number of packs to total population size and of 1.0 (95% CI = 0.93–1.12) to number of reproductions in December. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the conversion factor from packs to total population size was positively correlated with pup survival and litter size and negatively correlated with subadult, vagrant and adult survivals. Using an individual based model allowed us to model the full complexity of demographic traits of a social-living species such as the wolf. The flexibility of the model also meant that the conversion factor could be estimated for any month during the year. Our approach to estimate total population size from counts of groups requires having a population model where both individuals and groups are explicitly described and can be applied to other wolf populations and group-living species where counting all individuals over a large area is unfeasible.

For socially monogamous species, breeder bond dissolution has important consequences for population dynamics, but the extent to which extrinsic or intrinsic population factors causes pair dissolution remain poorly understood, especially among carnivores. Using an extensive life-history data set, a survival analysis and competing risks framework, we examined the fate of 153 different wolf (Canis lupus) pairs in the recolonizing Scandinavian wolf population, during 14 winters of snow tracking and DNA monitoring. Wolf pair dissolution was generally linked to a mortality event and was strongly affected by extrinsic (i.e. anthropogenic) causes. No divorce was observed, and among the pair dissolution where causes have been identified, death of one or both wolves was always involved. Median time from pair formation to pair dissolution was three consecutive winters (i.e. approximately 2 years). Pair dissolution was mostly human-related, primarily caused by legal control actions (36·7%), verified poaching (9·2%) and traffic-related causes (2·1%). Intrinsic factors, such as disease and age, accounted for only 7·7% of pair dissolutions. The remaining 44·3% of dissolution events were from unknown causes, but we argue that a large portion could be explained by an additional source of human-caused mortality, cryptic poaching. Extrinsic population factors, such as variables describing the geographical location of the pair, had a stronger effect on risk of pair dissolution compared to anthropogenic landscape characteristics. Population intrinsic factors, such as the inbreeding coefficient of the male pair member, had a negative effect on pair bond duration. The mechanism behind this result remains unknown, but might be explained by lower survival of inbred males or more complex inbreeding effects mediated by behaviour. Our study provides quantitative estimates of breeder bond duration in a social carnivore and highlights the effect of extrinsic (i.e. anthropogenic) and intrinsic factors (i.e. inbreeding) involved in wolf pair bond duration. Unlike the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors that are commonly reported on individual survival or population growth, here we provide quantitative estimates of their potential effect on the social unit of the population, the wolf pair.

Spatial capture–recapture models (SCR) are used to estimate animal density and to investigate a range of problems in spatial ecology that cannot be addressed with traditional nonspatial methods. Bayesian approaches in particular offer tremendous flexibility for SCR modeling. Increasingly, SCR data are being collected over very large spatial extents making analysis computational intensive, sometimes prohibitively so. To mitigate the computational burden of large‐scale SCR models, we developed an improved formulation of the Bayesian SCR model that uses local evaluation of the individual state‐space (LESS). Based on prior knowledge about a species’ home range size, we created square evaluation windows that restrict the spatial domain in which an individual's detection probability (detector window) and activity center location (AC window) are estimated. We used simulations and empirical data analyses to assess the performance and bias of SCR with LESS. LESS produced unbiased estimates of SCR parameters when the AC window width was ≥5σ (σ: the scale parameter of the half‐normal detection function), and when the detector window extended beyond the edge of the AC window by 2σ. Importantly, LESS considerably decreased the computation time needed for fitting SCR models. In our simulations, LESS increased the computation speed of SCR models up to 57‐fold. We demonstrate the power of this new approach by mapping the density of an elusive large carnivore—the wolverine (Gulo gulo)—with an unprecedented resolution and across the species’ entire range in Norway (> 200,000 km2). Our approach helps overcome a major computational obstacle to population and landscape‐level SCR analyses. The LESS implementation in a Bayesian framework makes the customization and fitting of SCR accessible for practitioners working at scales that are relevant for conservation and management.

In wide ranging species, portions of the same population often fall within different administrative jurisdictions; where different regulations apply. The same species can be fully protected or heavily harvested on different sides of a border. This can generate a source–sink dynamic from the areas with lower to those with higher mortality, a process known as compensatory immigration. We tested this hypothesis on the wolverine (Gulo gulo) population of southern Scandinavia, which is shared between two countries: Sweden and Norway. Wolverines are fully protected in Sweden, but subject to intensive population regulation in Norway. Using non-invasive genetic sampling and capture–recapture modeling, we analyzed the dynamics of wolverine survival and emigration patterns between 2002 and 2013. Wolverines in Norway experienced a lower survival than in Sweden. Migration across the national border was directed towards movements from Sweden to Norway. There was a functional relationship between harvest rate in Norway and emigration rates across the national border, both at the individual and population level, thus confirming the compensatory immigration hypothesis. Contrasting management regimes within the same population can generate undesired demographic and spatial dynamics, jeopardize conservation goals on the two sides of a border, and reduce the efficiency of management actions. This calls for the adoption of a coordinate population approach in large carnivore conservation and management. Failing to do so can cause a waste of the already limited resources allocated for large carnivore conservation, and it might hinder effective conflict mitigation.

Population expansions of boreal species are among the most substantial ecological consequences of climate change, potentially transforming both structure and processes of northern ecosystems. Despite their importance, little is known about expansion dynamics of boreal species. Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are forecasted to become a keystone species in northern Europe, a process stemming from population expansions that began in the 19th century. To identify the relative roles of geographic and demographic factors and the sources of northern European red fox population expansion, we genotyped 21 microsatellite loci in modern and historical (1835-1941) Fennoscandian red foxes. Using Bayesian clustering and Bayesian inference of migration rates, we identified high connectivity and asymmetric migration rates across the region, consistent with source-sink dynamics, whereby more recently colonized sampling regions received immigrants from multiple sources. There were no clear clines in allele frequency or genetic diversity as would be expected from a unidirectional range expansion from south to north. Instead, migration inferences, demographic models and comparison to historical red fox genotypes suggested that the population expansion of the red fox is a consequence of dispersal from multiple sources, as well as in situ demographic growth. Together, these findings provide a rare glimpse into the anatomy of a boreal range expansion and enable informed predictions about future changes in boreal communities.

Understanding the response of boreal species to past climate warming can help to predict future responses to climate change. In the Northern Hemisphere, the distribution and abundance of northern populations have been influenced by previous glaciations. In this study, we investigated the population history of the Fennoscandian red fox (Vulpes vulpes), which is a generalist carnivore currently undergoing range expansion in the tundra ecosystem. By analysing a 696 bp sequence of the mitochondrial DNA (N = 259) and two Y chromosome-specific microsatellite loci (N = 120), we specifically investigated where the red fox survived the Last Glacial Maximum and how Fennoscandia was recolonized. There was high genetic continuity across most of Fennoscandia, and we identified at least two recolonization pathways: one from continental Europe and one from the northeast (Siberia). Mitochondrial haplotype diversity displayed a significant decline with increasing latitude, consistent with expectations of unidirectional colonization. Each region displayed signatures of recent demographic and/or range expansions. For Finland, an additional recolonization route was suggested from the mismatch distribution analysis and identification of novel haplotypes. We concluded that, as with many boreal generalist species, the Fennoscandian red fox originates from multiple refugia, suggesting that it has benefited from diverse evolutionary histories, potentially enhancing its tolerance to different habitat conditions.

Inbreeding (mating between relatives) is a major concern for conservation as it decreases the fitness of offspring and can increase the extinction risk of populations. While pedigrees have traditionally been used to measure individual inbreeding, molecular markers have opened up new avenues to characterize inbreeding. However, a limitation has been that small numbers of markers can only roughly measure the proportion of an individual’s genome that is identical-by-descent (IBD) due to inbreeding. We used whole-genome resequencing of 97 grey wolves (Canis lupus) from the highly inbred Scandinavian wolf population, originally founded by only two individuals, to identify IBD chromosome segments as runs of homozygosity (ROH). This gave the very high resolution required to precisely measure the realized IBD fraction of the genome as FROH. We found a striking pattern of complete or near-complete homozygosity of entire chromosomes in many individuals. The majority of individual IBD was contributed by long IBD segments (>5cM) originating from common ancestors of parents within the last ~10 generations. However, although most IBD segments were very short (

Source at http://doi.org/10.1080/17518369.2017.1323621 The distribution of traditional breeding dens on the Varanger Peninsula (70–71°N) in northernmost Fennoscandia indicates that this area once harboured a large Arctic fox population. Early 20th century naturalists regarded the coastal tundra of the Fennoscandian Low Arctic to be a stronghold for the species. At the start of our research in 2004, however, the local Arctic fox population was critically small and most neighbouring populations had been extirpated. Here, we synthesize the results of 11 years of research to highlight ecosystem drivers behind the critical state of the Arctic fox in Low-Arctic Fennoscandia. We identify two fundamental drivers: (1) an increasingly climate-driven irregularity of the lemming cycle and (2) a management- and climate-driven increase in the abundance of red fox that is subsidized by more ungulate carrion. Arctic fox reproductive success is low when lemmings are scarce (despite high vole abundance), while red foxes exclude Arctic foxes from high-quality breeding territories in summer and from marine and terrestrial carrion in winter. Red fox culling on Varanger Peninsula may have prevented the extirpation of the Arctic fox population. However, one decade after the onset of this management action the Arctic fox population has failed to increase either because the action has been insufficient or because demographic and environmental stochasticity has precluded a positive response. We discuss options for future research and management of the Arctic fox in the Fennoscandian Low Arctic.

The Terai is one of the world's most spectacular landscapes, encompassing parts of Nepal and northern India. This area used to harbour large and continuous populations of charismatic species like elephants, tigers and rhinoceros. However, recent habitat fragmentation reduced these populations into small, partially or completely isolated remnants. The largest of these fragments in Nepal is the Bardia National Park. Here, the elephant population was functionally extinct in the early 1970s and -80s, but was rescued by a considerable number of immigrants in 1994. In order to assess population size, sex ratio, age structure, and levels of genetic variation, we carried out non-invasive genetic sampling, using elephant dung as the source of DNA. A capture-mark-recapture estimate of population size suggested that there were 57 individuals in the study area, which agrees well with field observations. Notably, a strongly male-biased sex ratio was evident among sub-adult individuals. This observation suggests the presence of sub-adult immigrants in the population, which was supported by formal migrant detection analysis. Genetic variation was quite high and the evidence for male immigrants suggests that there are good prospects for maintenance of genetic diversity. A decade ago a large-scale project was initiated in the Terai region to link remaining populations of large mammals through dispersal corridors. The program is basically founded on the assumption that habitat fragments are isolated with little or no migration between them. Our results indicate that this may not be the case, at least not for the Asian elephant in western Nepal, which therefore reduces the alleged extinction risk from genetic erosion and stochastic demographic events.

The timing and origin of reindeer domestication has been highly debated. Recent molecular analyses show several mitochondrial lineages of domestic reindeer across Eurasia suggesting different origins of Fennoscandian and Siberian domestic reindeer. In order to investigate the origin of domestic Fennoscandian reindeer, we sequenced a mitochondrial control region fragment of 68 ancient reindeer remains from archaeological sites in Finnmark, the major county for extant reindeer husbandry in Norway, spanning from ca. BC 3400 to AD 1800. The majority of the Stone and Iron Age reindeer assemblages in Finnmark are from settlements in the eastern part of the county, in the Varangerfjord area. The reindeer remains from these settlements show affiliation to the large and complex Beringian haplotype cluster, found in extant reindeer from the Kola Peninsula to north-eastern Russia. A distinct haplotype shift is observed in the late medieval period, when the typical haplotype signatures of extant domestic Fennoscandian reindeer appeared in coastal regions of both eastern and western Finnmark. These haplotypes were not found among the Stone and Iron Age wild reindeer samples of Finnmark, suggesting that this population was not ancestral to extant domestic reindeer of Fennoscandia.

Despite the importance of the reindeer husbandry in the subsistence of many northern cultures the origin and spread of domestic reindeer is still highly debated. Recent analyses of mitochondrial DNA in reindeer herds across Eurasia revealed distinct geographic structures of domestic reindeer in Fennoscandia and Russia, pointing towards independent origins of domestic reindeer in these areas. A high degree of haplotype sharing between the extant wild reindeer population in the Hardangervidda mountain region in southern Norway and the domestic herds in Fennoscandia indicate that this population could have contributed in the early domestication or augmented the domestic population. However, genetic analyses of excavated reindeer remains from the early medieval period from the Hardangervidda region revealed no haplotype sharing with extant domestic reindeer, demonstrating that reindeer from Hardangervidda did not contribute in the early domestication process in Fennoscandia. The substantial temporal genetic alteration observed in this population is related to introgression of domestic reindeer into the wild gene pool in the 19th century during periods when reindeer husbandry was practiced in this mountain region.

Isolation of small populations can reduce fitness through inbreeding depression and impede population growth. Outcrossing with only a few unrelated individuals can increase demographic and genetic viability substantially, but few studies have documented such genetic rescue in natural mammal populations. We investigate the effects of immigration in a subpopulation of the endangered Scandinavian arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), founded by six individuals and isolated for 9 years at an extremely small population size. Based on a long-term pedigree (105 litters, 543 individuals) combined with individual fitness traits, we found evidence for genetic rescue. Natural immigration and gene flow of three outbred males in 2010 resulted in a reduction in population average inbreeding coefficient (f), from 0.14 to 0.08 within 5 years. Genetic rescue was further supported by 1.9 times higher juvenile survival and 1.3 times higher breeding success in immigrant first-generation offspring compared with inbred offspring. Five years after immigration, the population had more than doubled in size and allelic richness increased by 41%. This is one of few studies that has documented genetic rescue in a natural mammal population suffering from inbreeding depression and contributes to a growing body of data demonstrating the vital connection between genetics and individual fitness.

Noninvasive genetic monitoring has the potential to estimate vital rates essential for conservation and management of many species. In a long-term genetic capture-mark-recapture study using scats we evaluated temporal variation in adult survival in a wolverine (Gulo gulo) population in southern Norway. In contrast to most previous studies of large mammals we found evidence for negative density dependence in adult survival in this large carnivore. Both sexes showed the same pattern of density dependence, with higher annual survival rates in adult females than males. In addition, we also found an additive mortality effect of harvesting in the population, resulting in the lowest adult survival rates at a combination of high population density and high harvest rate. The additive effects of density and harvest on adult survival of wolverines have relevance to the conservation and management of solitary carnivores with strong intrasexual territoriality, especially for species where combats among conspecifics can cause serious injury or even mortality.

The Norwegian red deer population (Cervus elaphus) was from the mid eighteenth to the early twentieth century drastically reduced in size and distribution but has the last century expanded both demographically and spatially. We have investigated genetic variation, differentiation and admixture in this spatially expanding ungulate population, using 14 microsatellites. The present genetic structure is moderate to strong with an average F ST = 0.08. Low M-ratios indicate loss of genetic variation in all localities and signals of a recent bottleneck was identified in 14 of 15 localities. Genetic distances between the localities indicate two main routes of dispersal during expansion, from the north–west and south–west, respectively. Bayesian assignment tests verify a break of the dataset in two, and demonstrate 99.9% probability for the existence of five sub-populations, which coincide well with five relict populations described by historic records. Computer simulations suggest that the observed genetic differentiation is recent rather than ancient, and that it may be explained by models of fragmentation or of founder events and subsequent merging rather than by models of recent bottlenecks in some particular demes within an ancient genetic structure.

Human population expansion and associated degradation of the habitat of many wildlife species cause loss of biodiversity and species extinctions. The small Simen Mountains National Park in Ethiopia is one of the last strongholds for the preservation of a number of afro-alpine mammals, plants and birds, and it is home to the rare endemic Walia ibex, Capra walie. The narrow distribution range of this species as well as potential competition for resources with livestock, especially with domestic goat, Capra hircus, may compromise its future survival. Based on a curated afro-alpine taxonomic reference library constructed for plant taxon identification, we investigated the diet of the Walia ibex and addressed the dietary overlap with domestic goat using DNA metabarcoding of faecal samples. Faeces of both species were collected from different localities in the National Park. We show that both species are browsers, with forbs, shrubs and trees comprising the largest proportion of their diet, supplemented by grasses. There was a considerable overlap in dietary preferences. Several of the preferred diet items of the Walia ibex (Alchemilla sp., Hypericum revolutum, Erica arborea and Rumex sp.) were also among the most preferred diet items of the domestic goat. These results indicate that there is potential for competition between the two species, especially during the dry season, when resources are limited. Our findings, in combination with the expected increase in domestic herbivores, suggest that management plans should consider the potential threat posed by domestic goats to ensure future survival of the endangered Walia ibex. published

The southern Norwegian wolverine (Gulo gulo) population was considered functionally extinct in the 1960s but has partly recovered in recent years. Proper management of this population is highly dependent on reliable estimates of critical population parameters such as population size, sex ratio, immigration rate, and reproductive contribution from immigrants. We report on a large-scale population monitoring project assessing these parameters through genetic tagging of individuals, with feces as the source of DNA. Sixty-eight different individuals were detected among 147 successfully genotyped samples collected in 2000 and 2001. Sixty of these individuals were represented in the 2001 sample, which may be considered a minimum estimate of the population size. Almost 50% of these animals were sampled only once, however, indicating that the true population size may be markedly higher. Accordingly, a capture-recapture estimate based on the observed resampling rates suggested a population size of 89 wolverines (95% confidence interval (CI) = 74-104), which is approximately 35% higher than an estimate of 64 obtained from the number of active natal dens (95% CI = 46-95; p = 0.08). Indirect estimates of dispersal distances inferred from mother-offspring relationships sug- gested that wolverine males have the ability to disperse up to 500 km, a distance exceeding anything previously reported in the literature. Dispersal distances of more than 100 km were detected for females. Bayesian clus- tering analysis and subsequent assessment of individual relationships suggest that immigrants from northern Scandinavia have contributed and still contribute to the southern Norwegian gene pool, counteracting genetic erosion and reducing the risk of inbreeding depression. Additional sampling efforts will be undertaken during the coming years to allow for observations of population trends, immigration rate, and reproductive variance among individuals. Such data will provide an important basis for the design of an appropriate conservation plan for this small and vulnerable population.

The grey wolf ( Canis lupus ) was numerous on the Scandinavian peninsula in the early 19th century. However, as a result of intense persecution, the population declined dramatically and was virtually extinct from the peninsula by the 1960s. We examined historical patterns of genetic variability throughout the period of decline, from 1829 to 1979. Contemporary Finnish wolves, considered to be representative of a large eastern wolf population, were used for comparison. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variability among historical Scandinavian wolves was significantly lower than in Finland while Y chromosome variability was comparable between the two populations. This may suggest that long-distance migration from the east has been male-biased. Importantly though, as the historical population was significantly differentiated from contemporary Finnish wolves, the overall immigration rate to the Scandinavian peninsula appears to have been low. Levels of variability at autosomal microsatellite loci were high by the early 1800s but declined considerably towards the mid-20th century. At this time, approximately 40% of the allelic diversity and 30% of the heterozygosity had been lost. After 1940, however, there is evidence of several immigration events, coinciding with episodes of marked population increase in Russian Karelia and subsequent westwards migration.

The glacial-interglacial cycles of the upper Pleistocene have had a major impact on the recent evolutionary history of Arctic species. To assess the effects of these large-scale climatic fluctuations to a large, migratory Arctic mammal, we assessed the phylogeography of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) as inferred from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence variation in the control region. Phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes seem to reflect historical patterns of fragmentation and colonization rather than clear-cut relationships among extant populations and subspecies. Three major haplogroups were detected, presumably representing three separate populations during the last glacial. The most influential one has contributed to the gene pool of all extant subspecies and seems to represent a large and continuous glacial population extending from Beringia and far into Eurasia. A smaller, more localized refugium was most likely isolated in connection with ice expansion in western Eurasia. A third glacial refugium was presumably located south of the ice sheet in North America, possibly comprising several separate refugial populations. Significant demographic population expansion was detected for the two haplogroups representing the western Eurasian and Beringian glacial populations. The former apparently expanded when the ice cap retreated by the end of the last glacial. The large continuous one, in contrast, seems to have expanded by the end of the last interglacial, indicating that the warm interglacial climate accompanied by marine transgression and forest expansion significantly confined population size on the continental mainland. Our data demonstrate that the current subspecies designation does not reflect the mtDNA phylogeography of the species, which in turn may indicate that morphological differences among subspecies have evolved as adaptive responses to postglacial environmental change.

The fragmentation of populations is an increasingly important problem in the conservation of endangered species. Under these conditions, rare migration events may have important effects for the rescue of small and inbred populations. However, the relevance of such migration events to genetically depauperate natural populations is not supported by empirical data. We show here that the genetic diversity of the severely bottlenecked and geographically isolated Scandinavian population of grey wolves (Canis lupus), founded by only two individuals, was recovered by the arrival of a single immigrant. Before the arrival of this immigrant, for several generations the population comprised only a single breeding pack, necessarily involving matings between close relatives and resulting in a subsequent decline in individual heterozygosity. With the arrival of just a single immigrant, there is evidence of increased heterozygosity, significant outbreeding (inbreeding avoidance), a rapid spread of new alleles and exponential population growth. Our results imply that even rare interpopulation migration can lead to the rescue and recovery of isolated and endangered natural populations.

Carnivores are the top trophic level of food webs, eventually only superseded by man. Being at the top, they often require large spaces from which to obtain enough prey, a requirement that can create severemanagement complicationswhen they roamoutside protected areas or wildlife management zones. This can cause human-wildlife conflicts, usually resulting in the interface becoming a population sink for large predators (Woodroffe and Ginsberg, 1998). Human-carnivore relations are therefore often the proximate cause of the distribution and abundance of these predators today. But it is not only the carnivores’ relationship with man that limits their abundance. In spite of being at the top of the food web, carnivore populations can be regulated by other trophic levels, most commonly through food availability. Carnivores can also be regulated by intraguild competition, whereby the composition of a particular carnivore guild and their interspecific interactions determine the abundance of a given carnivore species within it. Furthermore, carnivores are potentially

The identification of hybrids is often a subject of primary concern for the development of conservation and management strategies, but can be difficult when the hybridizing species are closely related and do not possess diagnostic genetic markers. However, the combined use of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), autosomal and Y chromosome genetic markers may allow the identification of hybrids and of the direction of hybridization. We used these three types of markers to genetically characterize one possible wolf-dog hybrid in the endangered Scandinavian wolf population. We first characterized the variability of mtDNA and Y chromosome markers in Scandinavian wolves as well as in neighboring wolf populations and in dogs. While the mtDNA data suggested that the target sample could correspond to a wolf, its Y chromosome type had not been observed before in Scandinavian wolves. We compared the genotype of the target sample at 18 autosomal microsatellite markers with those expected in pure specimens and in hybrids using assignment tests. The combined results led to the conclusion that the animal was a hybrid between a Scandinavian female wolf and a male dog. This finding confirms that inter-specific hybridization between wolves and dogs can occur in natural wolf populations. A possible correlation between hybridization and wolf population density and disturbance deserves further research.