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A series of ecological restoration programmes (ERPs) have been implemented in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau to reverse ecological deterioration. However, the multiple ecological benefits of these ERPs and their driving factors remain unclear. This study analyzed the dynamic changes in fractional vegetation cover (FVC), ecosystem services [water yield (WY), net primary productivity (NPP), and soil conservation (SC)], and sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the Forest Protection and Construction Programme (FPCP), Grassland Protection and Construction Programme (GPCP), Sandy Land Control Programme (SLCP), and Soil Erosion Control Programme (SECP) in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2015. The geographically weighted regression model was used to reveal the spatial differences of drivers of various ecological benefits. The results showed that ecological benefits increased synergistically in the GPCP and SLCP, while trade‐offs between NPP and WY were observed for the FPCP and SECP. ERPs resulted in a significant increase (p < 0.05) in FVC, SDG 15.1.1, and SDG 15.3.1 and a significant decrease (p < 0.01) in SDG 15.4.2, except for the SLCP. ERPs improved the FVC, WY, and SC, but did not reverse grassland degradation. The ecological benefits of the FPCP and SLCP were poor after 2010, while the ecological benefits of the SLCP have been better since 2012. FVC and WY were dominated by precipitation, and NPP was dominated by FVC. Slope dominated SC in the GPCP, SECP, and SLCP, while precipitation dominated SC in the FPCP. This study can provide scientific support for sustainable vegetation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid urbanization has led to significant changes in ecosystem services (ESs) and thus increased ecological risks. Understating how ESs respond to land use/land cover (LULC) patterns is critical for identifying and controlling ecological risks. However, little is known about the ES patterns, interactions, and drivers at different urban hierarchical scales, posing great challenges for multiscale landscape planning. This study evaluated changes in multiple ESs and identified ecological risks using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model in the Nanjing metropolitan area at the main urban, city, and metropolitan scales during 2000–2020. Then, ES interactions and drivers at different urban hierarchical scales were explored using Spearman's correlation analysis and the GeoDetector. By integrating the ES information above, a new multiscale landscape planning framework was proposed to mitigate ecological risks at different urban hierarchical scales. The results showed that most ESs have declined due to rapid urbanization. The ecological risks decreased with increasing spatial scale. The ES trade-offs/synergies at the small spatial scale may change at a larger spatial scale. Landscape composition was the dominant driver of ESs at the main urban scale, and the influence of natural factors strengthened with an increasing spatial scale. The construction of blue-green infrastructure is an effective way to mitigate ecological risk, but the effect is scale-dependent. Different urban hierarchical scales may face different ecological risks, and targeted landscape planning should be designed for different urban scales. The multi-scale landscape planning framework proposed in this study helps to identify the most effective landscape planning measures at different urban hierarchical scales. More attention should be paid to landscape configuration at small scales and ecological restoration at large scales. This study provides a technical framework to guide sustainable landscape planning and build resilient cities. [Display omitted] • Ecological risks were identified from the perspective of ecosystem services (ESs). • ES pattern, interaction, and drivers varied at different urban hierarchical scales. • Ecological risks decreased with increasing urban hierarchical scales. • A multi-scale framework was proposed to develop landscape planning. • The scale-explicit landscape planning can effectively mitigate ecological risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of landscape patterns on ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for the design and management of ecological restoration programs. However, the impacts of landscape configuration on ES from a geospatial perspective have not been studied sufficiently. This study analyzed the landscape composition and pattern changes and quantified the changes in water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, water purification, and habitat quality under the Grain for Green Program (GFGP) from 2000 to 2020 in Kaihua County. The responses of ES to landscape patterns were revealed by geographic detector and geographically weighted regression models. The results showed that landscape fragmentation and diversity increased, and forest landscape area and aggregation increased because of the GFGP implementation. Water yield declined with the decrease in the mean patch area of the landscape, while other ES improved due to the increase in Shannon's diversity index and largest patch index. The interspersion and juxtaposition of cropland and forest land played an important role in improving ES under the GFGP. In addition, some ES may be closely related to natural factors and connection to landscape patterns, such as soil retention and topography, water yield and precipitation, but this response to landscape pattern changes was captured due to the subjective nature of the GFGP. The results can provide scientific guidance for forest landscape restoration to better improve ES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization has substantially changed landscape patterns and seriously disturbed the structure and function of the ecosystems. However, the spatial characteristics and relationships between landscape patterns and ecosystem service values (ESVs) along the urban-rural gradient remain unclear. Based on high-resolution images, this study used concentric buffer zones to explore the characteristics and relationship between landscape pattern indexes (LPIs) and ESVs in the rural-urban gradient to reveal the impact of urban development on urban ecosystems. The results showed that the landscape heterogeneity was high in the urban fringe 18–20 km from the urban center. The PD, ED, LSI, SHAPE_MN, DIVISION, SPLIT, and SHIDI variables had the lowest values in the urban center, while CONTAG and AI had the high values in the urban. Water bodies and forest land are the main land use/land cover (LULC) types that provide ecosystem services. The total ESV of Kunshan city totaled 5597.31 × 106 CNY in 2018. The average ESV increased from 2.42 × 106 CNY to 9.92 × 106 CNY along the urban-rural gradient, which indicated that natural landscapes had higher ESVs. ED and Landscape Division Index (DIVISION) had positive effects on ESV, while Largest Patch Index (LPI), Contagion (CONTAG), Proportion of Like Adjacencies (PLADJ), Patch Cohesion Index (COHESION), and Aggregation Index (AI) had negative effects on ESV. The results of the regression model indicated there were quantitative relationships between ESVs and LPIs, which revealed how landscape pattern affected ESVs. The study can provide a scientific reference for the optimization of urban landscape patterns and urban and rural sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Soil types, vegetation types, and ecosystem services (ESs) differed at each altitude. • Similarities/differences in ESs among different soil types were identified. • Vegetation may promote or inhibit soil ESs, depending on soil and vegetation types. • Optimal soil and vegetation combinations were determined from an ES perspective. • Detailed soil and vegetation management measures were developed for each altitude. Soil provides diverse ecosystem services (ESs) to people, yet anthropogenic activities result in the degradation and loss of soil ESs. Therefore, there is an urgent need to take effective measures to protect and manage soils for sustainable development. However, the differences in ESs across soil types are not well understood, and the coupling effects of soil and vegetation on ESs at different altitudes remain unclear. In this study, the composition of soil and vegetation types under different altitude gradients were analyzed and the differences/similarities of ESs (in terms of water yield, carbon storage, and soil conservation) among different soil types were identified. Following this, the optimal soil and vegetation combinations under different altitude gradients were determined from an ES perspective. The results revealed that soil types and ESs differed markedly at each altitude gradient. ESs in the high-altitude zone were significantly higher than those in the low-altitude zone (p < 0.01). There was an obvious difference in the ES supply capacity of soil types, with brown earths and dark felty soils exhibiting higher ESs compared to purplish soils, paddy soils, red earths, and yellow earths. The felty soils and alpine steppe combination, brown coniferous forest soils and evergreen needleleaf forest combination, and brown earths and evergreen broadleaf forest combination provided the highest water yield, carbon storage, and soil conservation, respectively. Vegetation can promote or inhibitat soil ESs, depending on the vegetation and soil types. Based on the results, detailed soil and vegetation management measures were proposed for different altitudes. Dark-brown earths and dark felty soils were identified as priority soil types for protection. This study provides an important reference for soil management and landscape restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impacts of climate change and vegetation restoration on ecosystem services is essential for sustainable ecosystem management. However, the characteristics of nonlinear impacts of climate change and vegetation change on ecosystem services are still unclear, especially the determination of their impact thresholds. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecological shelter (QPES) was chosen as the study area. The changes in precipitation, temperature, fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and ecosystem services (water yield, net primary productivity (NPP) and soil conservation) were analyzed, the impacts of climate and vegetation cover changes on ecosystem services were evaluated, and the thresholds were quantitatively identified. The results showed that annual mean precipitation increased from 2000 to 2014 and dropped sharply in 2015, with temperatures rising significantly (p < 0.05) and vegetation recovering significantly (p < 0.01) from 2000 to 2015. NPP showed a fluctuating and rising trend from 2000 to 2015. Water yield and soil conservation were greatly affected by precipitation. NPP and soil conservation increased as vegetation improved. The impact threshold of precipitation on ecosystem services was 533 mm. When the annual mean temperature higher than −3.44 °C, the positive impact on ecosystem services was weakened; when it higher than 1.98 °C, the impact on ecosystem services was negative. The FVC thresholds in the study region and in the alpine steppe zone, alpine forest zone, alpine meadow zone, subtropical coniferous forest zone, alpine desert zone and temperate desert zone were 0.61, 0.37, 0.67, 0.53, 0.65, 0.20 and 0.24, respectively. This study provides an important reference for large-scale ecological management and moderate restoration. [Display omitted] • The trends of ecosystem services over a long time series were analyzed. • Ecosystem services showed fluctuation changes, and drivers may be unstable. • Impacts of climate and vegetation cover changes on ecosystem services were non-linear. • FVC thresholds can be incorporated into ecological restoration policy thresholds. • Sustainable ecosystem management requires appropriate restoration of vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) resulted in the increase of broad-leaved forests. • Ecological restoration projects did not lead to a sustained increase in ESV. • The impact of wetland loss on ESV outweighed that of forestland increase. • Location and scope of different ERPs and the LUCC brought by them were different. • ERPs with different location and scope had achieved different benefits. Ecosystem service value (ESV) is greatly affected by changes in land use/land cover (LULC), and land use decisions are critical drivers of LULC change. ESV assessment has become an important basis for evaluating the effectiveness of land use decisions. The implementation location and scope of different land use decisions have not received sufficient research attention, and there is therefore little information on the actual effects of such decisions. Northeast China has been the subject of multiple land use decisions in the past, and a lack of information on their effectiveness has created challenges to sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we used the latest benefit transfer method specifically developed for China to evaluate the changes in ESV and quantified the location and scope of different land use decisions to evaluate their benefits. The results showed that the total ESV increased from about $353.54 billion in 2000 to $354.86 billion in 2010 because of the expansion of river and lake, broad-leaved forest, and paddy field. However, the total ESV decreased to $353.39 billion in 2015 due mainly to decreases in wetlands, rivers and lakes, and dry farmland. The impact of wetland loss on ESV outweighed that of forestland increase. The Grain for Green Program (GFGP) and the Natural Forests Conservation Program (NFCP) increased ESV in the 2000–2010 period but decreased it in the 2010–2015 period. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) led to a continuous increase in ESV, but the Natural Wetland Conservation Program (NWCP) did not lead to an increase in ESV from 2000 to 2015. The effectiveness of the GFGP, NFCP, and NWCP should be enhanced, and priority conservation areas need to be established. This study can provide a reference for balancing the influence of multiple land use decisions in order to promote sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of ecosystem services (ESs) and their drivers in mountainous areas is important for sustainable ecosystem management. However, the effective construction of landscape heterogeneous units (LHUs) to reflect the spatial characteristics of ESs remains to be studied. The southern hill and mountain belt (SHMB) is a typical mountainous region in China, with undulating terrain and obvious spatial heterogeneity of ESs, and was selected as the study area. In this study, we used the fuzzy k-means (FKM) algorithm to establish LHUs. Three major ESs (water yield, net primary productivity (NPP), and soil conservation) in 2000 and 2015 were quantified using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and Carnegie Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model. Then, we explored the spatial variation in ESs along terrain gradients and LHUs. Correlation analysis was used to analyze the driving factors of ESs in each terrain region and LHU. The results showed that altitude and terrain niche increased along LHUs. Water yield and soil conservation increased from 696.86 mm and 3920.19 t/km2 to 1061.12 mm and 5117.90 t/km2, respectively, while NPP decreased from 666.95 gC/m2 to 648.86 gC/m2. The ESs in different LHUs differed greatly. ESs increased first and then decreased along LHUs in 2000. In 2015, water yield decreased along LHUs, while NPP and soil conservation showed a fluctuating trend. Water yield was mainly affected by precipitation, temperature and NDVI were the main drivers of NPP, and soil conservation was greatly affected by precipitation and slope. The driving factors of the same ES were different in different terrain areas and LHUs. The variation and driving factors of ESs in LHUs were similar to some terrain gradients. To some extent, LHUs can represent multiple terrain features. This study can provide important support for mountain ecosystem zoning management and decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Priority conservation region was established by balancing ecosystem services. • The selection of conservation priorities was proved to be reliable by analyzing spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem services. • The implementation of the Grain-for-Green Programme and the increase in rainfall have improved ecosystem services. • Forest land types should be taken into account for future forest management. Ecosystems are severely damaged with rising global temperatures, the rapid increase in population and the continuous exploitation and utilization of natural resources. The selection of conservation priorities is of great significance to regional ecological security and sustainable development. Here we identified conservation priorities by balancing ecosystem services trade-offs and analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem services. Water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, habitat quality, and ecological recreation were quantified using the InVEST model. By comparing conservation efficiencies under each scenario, we found the conservation efficiencies of the conservation priorities for water yield, soil conservation, habitat quality, carbon storage, and ecological recreation to be 1.05, 1.76, 1.30, 1.37 and 1.41, respectively. The conservation efficiencies of ecosystem services were consistently greater than 1 during the years 2000–2015. The implementation of the Grain-for-Green Programme and increased rainfall have improved ecosystem services and our results are of great significance to regional ecological and environmental protection and the improvement of ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ecosystem services differed for different vegetation types. • Ecosystem services and vegetation types have large spatial heterogeneity. • Organic agriculture and mixed forest are sustainable measures. • The priority conservation areas were determined by using OWA method. • The framework can provide reference for vegetation protection and management. Natural vegetation plays a vital role in ecosystem services, while anthropogenic land-use change causes extensive damage to natural vegetation, decreasing ecosystem services, and impacting human well-being. Therefore, it is of great significance to establish protected areas and implement vegetation protection measures. Ecosystem services depend on the vegetation type and terrain, but this topic has not been considered in detail in policy implementations. In this study, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to evaluate water yield, carbon storage, soil conservation, and water purification in the Chuan-Dian ecological shelter. Statistical methods were applied to analyze the differences in ecosystem services of different vegetation types and determine spatial variations in ecosystem services along terrain (altitude, slope, landform relief, and terrain niche) gradients. The results showed that ecosystem services differed for different vegetation types, and natural forests provided higher ecosystem services than other vegetation types, except for water yield. The rational allocation of forests, shrubs, and grasses and the implementation of organic agriculture and agroforestry systems are important measures to ensure sustainable economic and ecological development. We used the ordered weighted average method to select priority conservation areas based on ecosystem services. The priority conservation areas can play an important role in vegetation management in mountainous regions. This study provides new perspectives for vegetation protection and sustainable development in large-scale mountain areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Water-related ecosystem services were evaluated under four LULC scenarios and two climate scenarios. • The RCP4.5 scenario reduced water yield, while the RCP8.5 scenario increased water yield. • Climate change will be the major driver of water yield. • Land use/cover change will be the major driver of water purification. • The returning farmland to lakes scenario reduced water yield but increased water purification. Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes alter ecosystem services that directly and indirectly affect human well-being. The impacts of management scenarios and different climate scenarios on water-related ecosystem services are uncertain in the context of future LULC and climate change interactions. Therefore, here, we analyzed the impact of future climate change and land management scenarios on water-related ecosystem services by 2030 in the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone (JHEEZ). Water yield and water purification were modelled for 2030, and the models were built on LULC scenarios and climate scenarios by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (InVEST) model. We used the Beijing Normal University Earth system model (BNU-ESM) for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and we simulated four LULC scenarios using the future LULC simulation (FLUS) model. Four 2030 LULC scenarios, including rapid urbanization (RUS), farmland protection (FPS), ecological protection (EPS), and returning farmland to lakes scenario (RLS), were designed and compared with the year 2015 as the baseline. We found that the water yield of each LULC scenario under RCP4.5 had a decreasing trend: 10.41% (RUS), 12.43% (FPS), 13.69% (EPS), and 13.83% (RLS). However, the water yield increased under RCP8.5 and were 5.92%, 3.77%, 2.35%, and 2.18%, respectively. Water purification increased more in all LULC scenarios under the RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. The water purification of all land-use scenarios from small to large was FPS, RUS, EPS, and RLS. Our results indicated that climate change had a greater impact than LULC on water yield, but LULC change had a greater impact on water purification. Our results provide scientific guidance for decision makers to develop better LULC policies to achieve sustainable water resource management in watershed-dominated regions. The integrated assessment approach to climate and land management also applies to other conditions to help achieve sustainable management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• ESs and EFZs under different scales were assessed. • The spatiotemporal changes in ESs were broadly similar at different scales. • The spatiotemporal distribution of the EFZs varied at different scales. • Natural factors had greater impacts on the formation of EFZs at both two scales. • This study provides a theoretical basis for the zoning management of QPES. Ecological functional zones (EFZs) are crucial components of ecosystem management that maintain the sustainability of ecosystems. Clarifying EFZs and their driving factors can inform the management of regional ecosystems. This study analyzed the dynamic changes of four ecosystem services (ESs) on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau ecological shelter (QPES) at different scales in 2000 and 2015: water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), net primary productivity (NPP), and habitat quality (HQ). The K-means clustering algorithm was applied to classify EFZs, then the geographic detector model was used to reveal the driving factors for the formation of EFZs at different scales. The results demonstrated a decrease in WY and SC and an improvement in NPP and HQ in the QPES. The ecological regulating functional zone (E1), ecological supply functional zone (E2), and ecological supporting functional zone (E3) were classified based on the ESs that dominated the different areas. E1 was based primarily on NPP, E2 was based on WY, and E3 on HQ. The areas of E1 and E2 expanded and E3 decreased at the 1 km scale; while E1 expanded, E3 decreased and E2 remained unchanged at the county scale. Precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index were the most important driving factors affecting the formation of EFZs either at the 1 km scale or the county scale. Socioeconomic factors were also major driving factors of EFZs formation at the county scale, and all driving factors except gross domestic product had greater explanatory power in 2015 than in 2000. This study offers scientific justification for multiple-scale sustainable management in the QPES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Urbanization was divided into three different stages according to change in urban land. • Changes in wetland and ESs in different urbanization stages were detected. • Urbanization and wetland change had linear or nonlinear effects on variations in ESs. • Different ESs showed varied responses to urbanization and wetland change. • Wetland restoration has the potential to eliminate the negative effects of urbanization. Urbanization has had a profound impact on wetlands, and wetland conservation and restoration have attracted much attention. However, the detailed impacts of different urbanization and wetland changing processes on ecosystem services (ESs) are not well understood. Based on long-time series of remote sensing data (1990–2020), flood mitigation (FM), water purification (WP), carbon sequestration (CS), and biodiversity conservation (BC) were quantified in the Hang-Jia-Hu (HJH) region, China. According to the changing trend of urban land, the study period was divided into three urbanization stages: slow urbanization (1990–1998), rapid urbanization (1998–2013), and moderate urbanization (2013–2020). Regression analysis was used to explore the quantitative relationship between urbanization/wetland changes and ESs. The results showed that the urban land expansion rates in the slow urbanization, rapid urbanization, and moderate urbanization stages were 46.51 km2/yr, 100.62 km2/yr, and 70.87 km2/yr, respectively, and the corresponding wetland changing rates were 5.14 km2/yr, 19.54 km2/yr and −20.88 km2/yr, respectively. FM decreased in the slow and moderate urbanization stages and increased in the rapid urbanization stage, and WP increased in the slow and rapid urbanization stages and decreased in the moderate urbanization stage. Urbanization led to a decrease in FM, CS, and BC. Wetland restoration improved these ESs, while wetland loss caused a decline in multiple ESs in the slow and rapid urbanization stages. Wetland restoration partially offsets the negative effects of urbanization and wetland loss on ESs in the rapid urbanization stage. Urbanization and wetland changes have linear and nonlinear effects on ESs in different urbanization stages. Wetland restoration is an effective way to improve ESs in urbanization regions. This study can make an important contribution to sustainable wetland ecosystem development in urbanization regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The ERP has caused significant changes in the landscape pattern. • The impact of landscape patterns on WESs in different periods was assessed from a geospatial perspective. • Landscape composition has a greater impact on WESs than configuration. • PD and CONTAG are the main factors affecting WESs. Understanding the changes and drivers of water ecosystem services (WESs) can provide guidance for the management of ecological restoration programs (ERPs). This study analyzed the changes in WESs (water yield and water purification) and landscape patterns in the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone (JHEEZ) from 2000 to 2020 and revealed the effect of landscape patterns on WESs in different periods (development priority and ecological priority) through a geographic detector (GD) and geographic weighted regression (GWR). During the development priority period, there was an increase in landscape diversity and aggregation, as well as a decrease in landscape fragmentation and complexity. Additionally, the area of water bodies landscape decreased while the aggregation of cropland and built-up land increased. In contrast, during the ecological priority period, landscape diversity, fragmentation, and complexity increased, while landscape aggregation decreased. The water body area also increased, and cropland fragmentation increased. Water yield experienced an initial decrease and subsequent increase, while water purification continued to improve. Patch density and the contagion index are the main factors affecting WESs, and the improvement of water connectivity and the reduction of fragmented Landscape are of great significance to WESs. This study analyzed the impact of landscape pattern changes on WESs from a geospatial perspective and provided a reference for the sustainable development of ERPs in the JHEEZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of monoculture plantations for the restoration of forests has increased worldwide, but this approach may reduce ecosystem services (ESs) and result in ES trade-offs, posing great difficulties for ecosystem management. There is often a trade-off between provisioning services (PSs) and regulating and habitat services (RHSs). Coordinating ES trade-offs through scientific and effective management is key to achieving sustainable development and improving human well-being. In this study, bamboo forest, a monoculture plantation type, was studied in Anji County, China. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to evaluate product provision (PP), flood mitigation (FM), soil conservation (SC), nitrogen retention (NR), phosphorus retention (PR), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ). A forest conservation (FC) scenario was established to explore the impact of bamboo forest expansion on ESs. The grain for green (GFG) scenario and the intercropped bamboo forest (IBF) scenario (a nature-based solution) were developed to reduce or eliminate ES trade-offs. The results showed that the expansion of bamboo forests led to an increase in PP (+13.71%) and declines in FM (−2.23%), CS (−15.69%), SC (−3.63%), NR (−30.14%), PR (−9.16%), and HQ (−11.84%). The GFG scenario greatly increased multiple ESs (but not PP) but strengthened the trade-offs between PSs and RHSs. IBF was able to generate income (+66.89%), improve a variety of ESs (FM, +10.01%; CS, +22.09%; SC, +52.56%; NR, +28.48%; PR, +19.17%; HQ, +17.89%), and eliminate ES trade-offs. Intercropping vegetation can increase the economic income from bamboo forests and enhance ESs by providing crops and increasing canopy structure, aboveground biomass, root systems and litter. Some suggestions are proposed to improve plantation forest management. This study can serve as a reference for forest management in plantation regions within and beyond China. [Display omitted] • Bamboo forests expansion increased PP but decreased regulating ESs. • Scenario analysis was used to try to reduce or eliminate ES trade-offs. • GFG can improve regulating services but strengthen ES trade-offs. • IBF can increase economic income and improve multiple important ESs. • Agroforestry based on natural solutions can effectively manage ES trade-offs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The relative contributions of climate and LULC change to ESs were distinguished. • The changes in water yield and soil retention were related to climate change. • The change in NPP was mainly dominated by LULC change. • Afforestation reduced water yield, while deforestation and urbanization increased it. • Decisions should consider the relative contributions of climate and LULC changes. Understanding impacts of land use/cover (LULC) and climate change ecosystem services (ESs) is critical to human well-being. However, existing studies seldom determined the relative contributions of LULC and climate change to ESs from a geospatial perspective, and the impacts of different LULC conversions on ESs remain unclear. This study established a framework for distinguishing the relative spatial contributions of climate and LULC change to water yield, net primary productivity (NPP) and soil retention and applied it to Zhejiang Province. The results showed that all ESs showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020. Changes in water yield and soil retention were dominated by climate change, accounting for 75.22% and 77.69% of the total study area, respectively, while the changes in NPP were dominated by LULC changes, accounting for 82.70% of the total study area. We further quantified the impact of three major forms of LULC changes (urbanization, deforestation, and afforestation) on ESs in their respective regions. Deforestation and urbanization reduced NPP by 192 gC/m2 and 115.75 gC/m2, respectively, while afforestation increased NPP by 220.10 gC/m2. Afforestation reduced the water yield by 84.27%, while deforestation and urbanization increased it by 37.94% and 62.42%, respectively. Deforestation reduced soil retention by 38.28%, while urbanization and afforestation increased it by 3.91% and 63.28%, respectively. Five suggestions for improving ES management were proposed based on our results. This study can provide a detailed reference for decision-makers seeking sustainable ecosystem management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Considering ecosystem service trade-offs to identify ecological sources. • OWA was used to set up multiple ecological source scenarios. • Circuit theory was used to constructed an ecological security pattern. • Results can provide implications for ecosystem security in fast-growing cities. A well-constructed ecological security pattern (ESP) can promote linkages between ecological sources, mitigate the degradation of ecosystems, and facilitate sustainable urban development. However, when determining the ecological sources for ESPs, previous studies have less frequently or insufficiently considered the ecosystem service trade-offs. Our research aims to fill this research gap to improve the assessment of ESPs. Through a case study in a rapidly urbanizing region—the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone in China—we demonstrate the application possibilities of the proposed framework. Ecosystem services in the study area were evaluated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model, ecological sources were screened using the ordered weighted averaging method; then, an ESP was constructed using the minimum cumulative resistance model and circuit theory. The results indicated that crop production and water purification were higher in the east and lower in the west, while the water yield showed the opposite trend. Habitat quality and carbon storage were higher in the south and lower in the north. Eleven scenarios were set to determine ecological sources based on ecosystem service trade-offs. By comparing service efficiency, scenario 5 was selected as our optimal scenario, and the service efficiencies of ecological sources for crop production, water yield, habitat quality, carbon storage and water purification were 1.35, 1.15, 1.21, 1.06 and 0.92, respectively. There were no significant ecological sources in the developed eastern and central regions due to rapid urbanization and drastic land use changes in the area. There were 31 major ecological sources located in the western and northwestern parts of the study area, where water bodies and wetlands were well developed. There was a total of 70 ecological corridors in the study area, with 53 key ecological corridors. Based on these results, we proposed three measures to improve the sustainability of ecosystems to cope with the rapid urbanization while providing ecological quality. This study can provide implications for ecosystem security in other fast-growing cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implementing the policy of returning farmland to lakes (RFL) led to land use/land cover (LULC) changes and affected ecosystem service trade-offs. Consequently, the implementation intensity of RFL has become an important issue. The LULC of the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone (JHEEZ) has transformed significantly because of the implementation of RFL. In this study, we simulated the LULC change of the JHEEZ in 2030 and then analyzed the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services under four RFL intensity scenarios. Our results showed that water yield first increased and then decreased, and crop production decreased; in contrast, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water purification continuously increased. The levels of the five ecosystem services were most balanced in the mild RFL scenario. In this scenario, water yield and crop production decreased by 0.46% and 5.95%, respectively. In contrast, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water purification increased by 0.35%, 3.49% and 3.20%, respectively. Under the moderate and strong RFL scenarios, increases in regulation services were at the expense of significant reductions in supply services. In all RFL scenarios, carbon storage, habitat quality and water purification increased in synergy, except for natural RFL scenarios. These three ecosystem services were in a trade-off relationship with water yield and crop production. However, under the natural RFL scenario, water yield was synergistic with these three ecosystem services. Therefore, the implementation of RFL may enhance ecosystem service trade-offs. Our results reveal the impact of different intensities of RFL on ecosystem service trade-offs and suggest that the intensity of RFL implementation should be factored into policy making and ecosystem management. This study can provide a useful reference for decision makers to choose the optimal restoration intensity of lake and wetland. • Four returning farmland to lakes scenarios were designed and their impacts on ecosystem services were quantified. • Trade-offs among ecosystem services were simulated under four returning farmland to lakes scenarios. • Ecosystem services were most balanced in the mild returning farmland to lakes scenario. • The implementation intensity of returning farmland to lakes should be focused in policy making and ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]