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The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts and trade-offs of scenarios representing movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM + ESM). Our approach provides the first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of a tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. For the five Amazon focal countries, namely, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Bolivia and Ecuador, we find that a tipping point would create economic losses of US$256.6 billion in cumulative gross domestic product by 2050. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in intensifying agriculture in cleared lands, climate-adapted agriculture and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth and a return on investment of US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can support the design of regional development strategies for the Amazon biome, build the business case for action and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable policy implementation.

The intensification, extensification and abandonment of agricultural land will each play a major role in the future development of European landscapes. However, their impacts on various dimensions of sustainability vary spatially. This creates challenges but also opportunities for landscape managers and policymakers to optimize biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this study, we conduct a spatial assessment of the impacts of these three major agricultural development trajectories on ten ecosystem service and biodiversity indicators across the European Union (EU) and the UK. Using a spatial resolution of 1 km2, we exposed high spatial variation in impacts and strong differences in the spatial patterns depending on the indicator. Aggregating all positive and negative impacts of a trajectory, hot- and cold spots of total positive and negative impacts could be distinguished. An assessment of trade-offs and synergies between impacts of each trajectory was used to map areas dominated by beneficial impacts, detrimental impacts, or high trade-offs between impacts. The results indicate very diverse spatial trade-off and synergy patterns, with generally high sub-regional variation, emphasizing (i) the need for reflecting trade-offs and context-specificity in landscape planning and management and (ii) the potential advantages of spatial targeting of agricultural development and conservation strategies. Biodiversity and ecosystem service impact mapping exercises can, thus, be a major tool to effectively navigate trade-offs and synergies and explore effective sustainable landscape solutions. • Environmental impacts of agricultural change are strongly variable across the EU. • We mapped trade-off and synergy analyses to assess the desirability of trajectories. • Spatial planning is a key tool to target agronomic and conservation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscapes are closely linked to human well-being, but they are undergoing rapid and fundamental change. Understanding the societal transformation underlying these landscape changes, as well as the ecological and societal outcomes of landscape transformations across scales are prime areas for landscape research. We review and synthesize findings from six important areas of landscape research in Europe and discuss how these findings may advance the study of ecosystem change and society and its thematic key priorities. These six areas are: (1) linkages between people and the environment in landscapes, (2) landscape structure and land-use intensity, (3) long-term landscape history, (4) driving forces, processes, and actors of landscape change, (5) landscape values and meanings, and (6) landscape stewardship. We propose that these knowledge areas can contribute to the study of ecosystem change and society, considering nested multiscale dynamics of social-ecological systems; the stewardship of these systems and their ecosystem services; and the relationships between ecosystem services, human well-being, wealth, and poverty. Our synthesis highlights that knowledge about past and current landscape patterns, processes, and dynamics provides guidance for developing visions to support the sustainable stewardship of social-ecological systems under future conditions.

• Community wetlands are more socially inclusive yet less prevalent than private wetlands. • Community wetland users acknowledge and value a wider range of ecosystem services. • Community management practices are more aligned with sustainable development goals. • Traditional practices are more resilient in nature and provide more benefits to society. • Sustainable planning strategies should incorporate local community perspectives. Urban wetlands are well-known to provide multiple ecosystem services and are essential for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The management practices of local institutions are strongly influential on the sustainability outcomes of urban wetlands, yet the beliefs and value systems underlying distinct management approaches have not been studied thoroughly. Therefore, this study aims to elucidate the perceptions of local stakeholders regarding the ecosystem services provided by urban wetlands, their linkages to the SDGs, and pertinent threats to the wetlands, to reveal the connections between local awareness and sustainable management practices. Using the East Kolkata Wetlands (EKW) in India as a case study, we used a mixed-method approach to interview 120 local stakeholders associated with two differentially managed wetland systems – community and private. Our results demonstrate that the community wetlands are more socially inclusive in nature than the private wetlands. The private users emphasized economic benefits and livelihood security above all, whereas the community users strongly valued diverse provisioning services and cultural services in addition to the livelihood security. Further, community users identified a greater number of ecosystem services as contributing toward the SDGs relative to private users. We suggest that sustainable development strategies consult and incorporate the perceptions of local community wetland management groups, as these management practices are rooted in more comprehensive value systems and are more aligned with sustainable outcomes. These insights reveal the importance of local awareness of ecosystem services, and may be of value to urban planners and policymakers working toward sustainable urban management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We present new sustainable land system scenarios for Europe for 2050. • Unique values informed each scenario via the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). • Natural grasslands and forests will decline without sustainability targets. • Equal targets under varied NFF scenarios yield diverse outcomes for 20 % of Europe's land. • Identifying convergences/disagreements in sustainability valuations aids dialogue. Ambitious international targets are being developed to protect and restore biodiversity under the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and the European Union's Green Deal. Yet, the land system consequences of meeting such targets are unclear, as multiple pathways may be able to deliver on the set targets. This paper introduces a novel scenario approach assessing the plural implementations of these targets. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) developed by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services aims to illustrate the different, positive ways in which society can value nature. It therefore offers a lens through which the spatial implementation of sustainability targets may be envisioned. We used CLUMondo, a spatially explicit model, to simulate plural land system scenarios for Europe for 2050. The model builds on current land system representations of Europe and explores how and where sustainability targets can be implemented under projected population trends and commodity demands. We created three different scenarios in which the sustainability targets are met, each representing an alternative, normative view on nature as represented by the NFF, favoring land systems providing strong climate regulation (Nature for Society), species conservation (Nature for Nature), or agricultural heritage features (Nature as Culture). Our results show that, irrespective of the NFF view, meeting sustainability targets will require European land systems to drastically change, as natural grasslands and forests are forecast to expand while productive areas are projected to undergo a dual intensification and diversification trajectory. Despite each NFF perspective showcasing a similar direction of change, 20% of Europe's land area will differ based on the adopted NFF perspective, with hotspots of disagreement identified in eastern and western Europe. These simulations go beyond existing scenario approaches by not only depicting broad societal developments for Europe, but also by quantifying the land system synergies and trade-offs associated with alternative, archetypal, interpretations and values of how nature may be managed for sustainability. This quantification exemplifies a means towards constructive dialogue, on the one hand by acknowledging areas of contention, and bringing such issues to the fore, and on the other by highlighting points of convergence in a vision for a sustainable Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest plantation areas across the globe are increasing in size and in 2019 Eucalyptus monocultures in Brazil covered 6.97 million hectares (0.8%). These monocultures hardly provide ecosystem services and do not support wildlife habitats. A transition towards more sustainable Eucalyptus plantations is urgently needed to support the provisioning of ecosystem services and conserve biodiversity. This transition requires the development of sustainable business models. We studied the upscaling of sustainable Eucalyptus plantation alternatives in Brazil, by analysing the potential barriers that need to be overcome using the Technological Innovation Systems perspective and semi-structured interviews of relevant stakeholders across the Eucalyptus value chain. Although the provisioning of ecosystem services is improved by alternative plantation management, we identified four blocking mechanisms that inhibit the functioning of the innovation system and as such hamper upscaling; 1) the productivist approach by incumbent actors on plantation management that is focussing only on short-term profit maximisation and results in a strong resistance to change current practices, 2) the weak societal and governmental vision that does not put sufficient pressure to change practices, 3) additional certification to support alternatives is in its infacy to develop niche markets which also hampers the development of financial support, and 4) failed demonstration projects in the past that have led to a lack of proof of concept for further experimentation and knowledge development. These barriers combined lead to a system lock-in, resistant to change and not capable for a diffusion of sustainable alternatives. We conclude that the directionality of a sustainability transformation should be enhanced by formulating long-term goals and strong commitment of public and private actors. We discuss how a mission oriented approach could foster such directionality for the urgently needed regime transformation in Eucalyptus paper and pulp production. • Monoculture Eucalyptus plantations are the norm but do not provide ecosystem services. • Alternatives address the provision of ecosystem services and include mixed stands. • Alternative plantations face difficulties in upscaling. • Upscaling is blocked by various barriers, leading to a lock-in. • To overcome this system lock-in directionality is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methods to map nature-based recreation are increasingly used, especially in ecosystem services research and practice. Researchers that map nature-based recreation beyond local scales, however, have relied much on physical attributes, e.g. land cover and topography. In such instances the recreational potential of land is modeled based on expert judgement and not on public preferences. Participatory mapping data is based on public preferences and as such can be used to improve proxy-based methods to map the recreational potential of land. In this paper, we use data from an online mapping survey (the Hotspotmonitor/Greenmapper) to spatially analyze the recreational potential of land. We employed point pattern analyses to 1) investigate which physical attributes contribute to the recreational potential of land, at both a regional and a national scale, and 2) how preferences for such attributes differ between respondents from distinct geographical regions. We find that interregional differences, whereas prominent at the regional scale, are small at national scale, suggesting there is a shared understanding of what places are ‘hotspots’ for recreation within the Netherlands. These hotspots, however, are difficult to map using physical attributes alone. Discussing these discrepancies, our paper provides insights that contribute to a better understanding and mapping of the recreational potential of land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysical drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science. Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are particularly prone to the effects of climate change. One way for cities to adapt is by enhancing their green infrastructure (GI) to mitigate the impacts of heat waves and flooding. While alternative GI design options exist, there are many unknowns regarding public support for the various options. This study aims to fill this gap by performing a socio-cultural valuation of urban GI for climate adaptation that encompasses multiple dimensions: people’s notion of and concerns about climate impacts, the degree to which people acknowledge the benefits of GI to alleviate such impacts, and people’s preferences for different GI measures, including their willingness to pay (WTP). Data were collected through photo-assisted face-to-face surveys (n = 200) with residents in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and linked to GI GIS data. Respondents had a notion of and concerns about climate impacts, but did not necessarily acknowledge that GI may help tackle these issues. Yet, when residents were informed about the adaptation capacity of different GI measures, their preferences shifted towards the most effective options. There was no information effect, however, on people’s WTP for GI, which was mostly related to income and ethnicity. Our study shows that economic valuation alone would miss nuances that socio-cultural valuation as applied in this paper can reveal. The method revealed preferences for particular adaptation designs, and assists in detecting why policy for climate adaptation may be hampered. Understanding people’s views on climate impacts and adaptation options is crucial for prioritizing effective policy responses in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is increasingly advocated that no net loss policies, aimed to avoid, minimize and lastly offset environmental impacts from development, should not only focus on impacts on biodiversity, but also on the consequences for ecosystem services. The Biodiversity Strategy of the European Union explicitly specifies the ‘no-net-loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2020′ as a target. The extent to which ecosystem services could be compensated, however, largely depends on the needs and wants of the people that are affected by the development. Empirical studies investigating the public perception of offset policies are limited. In this study we examine the extent to which local residents perceive woodland restoration as adequate compensation for impacts from urban development on the rural countryside. We use a choice experiment to study whether local residents in East Lothian, Scotland – where the high demand for housing is posing a large challenge for local authorities – are willing to accept additional housing in return for the addition of woodlands to the landscape. Using a latent class model we identify four classes of residents, each with different preferences for woodland restoration and additional housing. A majority of the respondents (75%) expressed that residential development will have a negative impact on the countryside, predominantly on biodiversity, agriculture and the traditional character of the landscape. Respondents, however, differed widely in their willingness to offset these impacts: residents who felt most affected by housing were least willing to offset additional residential development. If no net loss policies are to tackle both biodiversity and ecosystem services, we need to look beyond the ecological impacts from development by taking a closer look at the impacts of environmental change on human well-being. Only after a better understanding of how different beneficiaries are affected by the environmental impacts from development can we begin to discuss how those affected may be compensated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many global land change scenarios are driven by demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel. However, novel demands for other ecosystem services give rise to nexus issues and can lead to different land system changes. In this paper we explore the effects of including multiple different demands in land change scenarios. Our reference scenario is driven by demands for crop production, ruminant livestock production, and provisioning of built-up area. We then compare two alternative scenarios with additional demands for terrestrial carbon storage and biodiversity protection, respectively. These scenarios represent possible implementations of globally agreed policy targets. The simulated land system change scenarios are compared in terms of changes in cropland intensity and area, as well as tree and grassland area changes. We find that the carbon and biodiversity scenarios generally result in greater intensification and less expansion of cropland, with the biodiversity scenario showing a stronger intensification effect. However, the impact of setting the targets impacts different world regions in different ways. Overall, both scenarios result in a larger tree area compared to the reference scenario, while the carbon scenario also yields more grassland area. The land systems simulated while accounting for these additional demand types show strong patterns of specialization and spatial segregation in the provisioning of goods and services in different world regions. Our results indicate the relevance of including demands for multiple different goods and services in global land change assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative studies that assess and map the relationship between the supply and social demand of ecosystem services are scarce. Here we address both supply and social demand sides by spatially analyzing ecosystem service trade-offs from three value-dimensions – i.e., biophysical, socio-cultural and economic, and across different landscape units in southeast Spain. To accomplish this goal, within different landscape units, we quantify the supply side by mapping the biophysical values of five ecosystem services, and the social demand exploring their socio-cultural and economic values by analyzing social preferences and contingent valuation methods, respectively. Our results show that the assessments of ecosystem services using different value-dimensions are complementary and useful for (1) identifying ecosystem service trade-offs, both on the supply- and on the social demand-side, and (2) analyzing spatial mismatches among the three value-dimensions of ecosystem services. We also believe that our approach facilitates the exploration of ecosystem services trade-offs on a spatial landscape scale, and results can be used by managers to identify areas in which services are declining or priority areas for conservation based on maximizing ecosystem services, and will be useful in detecting potential conflicts associated with new management and planning practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Multiple disturbances can cumulatively impact ecosystem functioning. [•] An earthquake had the greatest impact on the ecosystem. [•] Climate variation had a stronger impact on water yield and soil conservation. [•] Landscape change had a stronger impact on water purification. [•] Identification of the sensitive areas enhances an ecosystem management plan. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We explore the relationship between biodiversity, ecosystem services and conservation policy. A framework for studying their interdependence is proposed. We argue that a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for making a transition to a truly sustainable economy is that biodiversity conservation and its analysis take into account unwanted and avoidable indirect – i.e. rebound – effects of all kinds of biodiversity policy. We identify five types of such rebound effects and propose the terms biodiversity (two types), ecological, service and environmental rebound for these. The service rebound is associated with the problem of incongruence or conflicts, and thus the potential need for trade-offs, between ecosystem services or between such services and biodiversity conservation. Effective biodiversity policy requires the minimization of these various rebound effects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the value of ecosystem services provided by mangroves. It presents a meta-analysis of the economic valuation literature and applies the estimated value function to assess the value of mangroves in Southeast Asia. We construct a database containing 130 value estimates, largely for mangroves in Southeast Asia. Values are standardised to US$ per hectare per year in 2007 prices. The mean and median values are found to be 4185 and 239 US$/ha/year respectively. The values of mangrove ecosystem services are highly variable across study sites due to, amongst other factors, the bio-physical characteristics of the site and the socio-economic characteristics of the beneficiaries of ecosystem services. We include explanatory variables in the meta-analysis to account for these influences on estimated mangrove values. A geographic information system (GIS) is used to quantify potentially important spatial variables, including the abundance of mangroves, the population of beneficiaries, and the density of roads in the vicinity of each study site. The meta-analytic value function is used to estimate the change in value of mangrove ecosystem services in Southeast Asia under a baseline scenario of mangrove loss for the period 2000–2050. The estimated foregone annual benefits in 2050 are US$ 2.2 billion, with a prediction interval of US$ 1.6–2.8 billion. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Emphasis on rural development by the European Commission has renewed the need for tools that can help in determining local development options. Incentives that encourage multifunctionality would be aided by ascertaining the strengths and weaknesses of a region. This article provides a methodological framework for identifying local development capital using scenario storylines, maps and visualisations of possible development outcomes to prompt discussion with local stakeholders about regional potentials. Result from a case study in Northern Portugal show that these tools are particularly suited to gaining a richer understanding of development assets and constraints and for providing insight in the role of spatial variation within regions, which is rarely addressed in scenario studies. The spatial heterogeneity of human, policy and environmental factors are shown to determine where different types of rural development are possible. We conclude that these tools can be used by local government agencies and land managers to develop policy interventions that consider local human capacities, willingness and environmental considerations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Regional distinctiveness is supported by the European Union in rural development policy. However, there is little information about the spatial distribution of the potential for rural development across Europe. The concept of territorial capital is used to consider spatial characteristics in assessing the capacity for rural development. Expert-based descriptions of territorial capital are translated into mappable proxies to locate regions with development capacities in intensive agriculture, off-farm employment, rural tourism and conservation. Combining these potentials, the capacity for multiple functions within regions is assessed. A partial validation of the expert-based weighing of territorial capital is done by comparison with an empirical approach based on logistic regression. The results indicate strong variation between regions in rural development potentials. In Western Europe, regions with high rural tourism probability also share a high potential for conservation while opportunities for intensive agriculture and off-farm employment are generally low. In other parts of Europe these correlations are less pronounced. Several regions offer limited potential in all four considered functions while few regions have potential in all four functions. The assessment provides policymakers with assistance in identifying competitive rural development projects. Targeting rural development policies to high potential areas may increase policy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Informing the post-2020 development agenda requires better models and data. • Approaches do not capture interactions of economy, society and environment. • Economy-wide models linked with ecosystem services (ES) modeling fills the gap. • GTAP linked with ES modeling can inform international discourse and advocacy. • The IEEM Platform linked with ES modeling can inform national policy. The year 2020 is a critical year for sustainable development policy and practice with the review and renewal of various international commitments including the Sustainable Development Goals, the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Paris Agreement. The post-2020 agenda needs to be informed by more robust analytical approaches that capture the interactions between the economy, society and the environment. In this paper, we review the state of the art in available models and datasets that lay the groundwork for future analytical work to inform this agenda. Based on this review, we propose an integrated modeling approach for global analysis to underpin international policy discourse and advocacy, and; a sub-global approach focusing on evaluating specific strategies and policy portfolios to make progress toward sustainability commitments considering detailed local country context. Both approaches rely on integrating whole of economy computable general equilibrium models with spatial land use land cover and ecosystem services models. Endogenizing feedbacks between modeling system components ensures that evidence is based on interactions between all system components. Recent advances in methods, data and available tools discussed herein reduce barriers to entry for this type of complex systems analysis and increases the timeliness of policy advice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Low-meat and no-meat diets rely strongly on global pollinator abundance and diversity. • The location of land and water footprints differs among USA diets. • Low-meat diets support natural nitrogen fixation despite lower demand for land. • Trade-offs between global and local impacts of dietary shift call for sustainable trade. Low-meat and no-meat diets are increasingly acknowledged as sustainable alternatives to current Western food consumption patterns. Concerns for the environment, individual health or animal welfare are raising consumers' willingness to adopt such diets. Dietary shifts in Western countries may modify the way human-environment systems interact over distances, primarily as a result of existing trade flows in food products. Global studies have focused on the amount of water, land, and CO 2 emissions embodied in plant-based versus animal-based proteins, but the potential of alternative diets to shift the location of environmental impacts has not yet been investigated. We build on footprint and trade-based analyses to compare the magnitude and spatial allocation of the impacts of six diets of consumers in the United States of America (USA). We used data on declared diets as well as a stylized average diet and a recent dietary guideline integrating health and environmental targets. We demonstrate that low-meat and no-meat diets have a lower demand for land and utilize more crops with natural nitrogen fixation potential, yet also rely more widely on pollinator abundance and diversity, and can increase impacts on freshwater ecosystems in some countries. We recommend that governments carefully consider the local impacts of the alternative diets they promote, and minimize trade-offs between the global and local consequences of dietary shifts through regulation or incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wild food is an iconic ecosystem service that receives little attention in quantifying, valuating and mapping studies, due to the perceived low importance or due to lack of data. Here, we synthesize available data on the importance of wild food as ecosystem service, its spatial distribution and relations between supply, demand and benefits in the European Union (EU), covering all terrestrial wild food groups. A wide variety of game (38 species), mushrooms (27 species) and vascular plants (81 species) is collected and consumed throughout the EU. Income, age, gender, possibilities for collecting, and cultural factors explain the importance of wild food. While the economic and nutritional values of wild food comprise a few thousands of the GDP or total consumption, over 100 million EU citizens consume wild food. Collecting wild food is an appreciated recreational activity; collecting and consuming wild food provide important cultural ecosystem services, including recreation and sense of place. Because of these benefits, wild food should be included in EU ecosystem service assessments. Better estimates could be made if better data on wild food abundance and production are available and by systematic inventories of participation in wild food collecting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]