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In mountains, grasslands managed for livestock production sustain local economies, culture and identity. However, their future fodder production is highly uncertain under climate change: While an extended growing season may be beneficial, more frequent and intense summer droughts could also reduce fodder quantity and quality. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are another major driver of grassland biomass production, but combined effects of future land use transitions and climate change are rarely quantified.We modelled combined climate and LULC scenarios for grassland production of the Maurienne Valley (French Alps) by 2085. We built a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) from long‐term grassland production monitoring data complemented with expert knowledge. We assessed the potential of two candidate adaptations, intensification as an incremental solution and silvopastoralism as a transformative solution to compensate combined impacts of two climate scenarios and three land use change scenarios.Total biomass production was far more sensitive to LULC than to climate scenarios. Production losses were largest under the conservation LULC scenario (−28% on average between 2020 and 2085), followed by the tourism development scenario (−7%) and the business‐as‐usual scenario (+3%). Climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 altered the seasonality of production by increasing potential production from May to July while decreasing summer regrowth.Synthesis and applications: Changes in LULC are more decisive for global biomass production than climate change. However, under the most extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5), the seasonal shift in production and increased interannual variability threaten the current grass‐based protected designation of origin (PDO) production system. Only the intensification adaptation solution showed significant gains in total biomass production. Still, the silvopastoralism would require less investment compared to the intensification and have a similar efficiency when assessing the gains of biomass by the surface concerned with adaptation solutions. Along with decreased total annual production due to decreasing grassland area compounded by more extreme climate change, the seasonal shift in production and increased interannual variability threaten the current grass‐based PDO production system. Further Bayesian modelling co‐developed with local stakeholders and experts could greatly contribute to adaptation planning of the regional production system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem Service (ES) mapping has become a key tool in scientific assessments of human-nature interactions and is being increasingly used in environmental planning and policy-making. However, the associated epistemic uncertainty underlying these maps often is not systematically considered. This paper proposes a basic procedure to present areas with lower statistical reliability in a map of an ES indicator, the vegetation carbon stock, when extrapolating field data to larger case study regions. To illustrate our approach, we use regression analyses to model the spatial distribution of vegetation carbon stock in the Brazilian Amazon forest in the State of Pará. In our analysis, we used field data measurements for the carbon stock in three study sites as the response variable and various land characteristics derived from remote sensing as explanatory variables for the ES indicator. We performed regression methods to map the carbon stocks and calculated three indicators of reliability: RMSE-Root-mean-square-error, R -coefficient of determination - from an out-of-sample validation and prediction intervals. We obtained a map of carbon stocks and made explicit its associated uncertainty using a general indicator of reliability and a map presenting the areas where our prediction is the most uncertain. Finally, we highlighted the role of environmental factors on the range of uncertainty. The results have two implications. (1) Mapping prediction interval indicates areas where the map's reliability is the highest. This information increases the usefulness of ES maps in environmental planning and governance. (2) In the case of the studied indicator, the reliability of our prediction is very dependent on land cover type, on the site location and its biophysical, socioeconomic and political characteristics. A better understanding of the relationship between carbon stock and land-use classes would increase the reliability of the maps. Results of our analysis help to direct future research and fieldwork and to prevent decision-making based on unreliable maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying and mapping ecosystem services (ES) is seen as one way to improve decision making and land management to better integrate environmental issues. This study aimed to characterize ES supply in deforestation context where an improvement of scientific knowledge should help develop more efficient environmental management. For three case studies in the Brazilian Amazon impacted by deforestation, seven indicators of potential ES supply were mapped at a spatial resolution of 30 × 30 m: biodiversity index (indicator of food web support); richness of pollinators (pollination); index of soil chemical quality (support to production); water available for plants (water regulation); soil carbon stocks (support to production and climate regulation); rate of water infiltration into the soil (soil erosion control); and vegetation carbon stocks (climate regulation). To map these indicators, in situ measurements of ES for 135 sampling points and remote sensing data were linked using regression methods. These methods were used to predict ES values and identify environmental factors that influence ES supply. The resulting maps help in understanding the influence of environmental factors on ES spatial distribution within the sites. The analyses illustrate the influence of land-use changes on ES supply and the role of context effects due to the heterogeneity of the biophysical environment, the temporality of deforestation and/or their diversified sociopolitical contexts. From a methodological viewpoint, the study highlights the importance of choices inherent in all cartographic practices and that need to be considered, especially in the context of rendering ES maps operational. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying and mapping ecosystem services (ES), their indicators and their relationships is of crucial importance for environmental management. In this article, we analyze the spatial distribution of multiple-ES indicators at three locations on the pioneer fronts of the Brazilian Amazon. We identify trade-offs and synergies between six ES indicators for soil, vegetation and biodiversity characterization. We also propose spatial representations of multiple-ES indicators (vegetation carbon stocks, rates of water infiltration into soil, soil chemical quality, soil carbon stocks, biodiversity and richness in Sphingidae). Finally, we discuss three different methods to map them depending on the goals of the maps, arguing that maps lean on objective-oriented approaches. The study is based on remote sensing and sampling data from 135 sampling points. We created multiple-ES indicators maps based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a score of ES richness, and discrimination of land cover units. PCA is an appropriate tool for showing high correlations between indicators, nevertheless has notable limitations for visual communication. The scoring method may help mapping ES hotspots, however it fails to consider relationships among them. The land-cover-based method has the advantage of being simple and easy to interpret, still it may not consider important indicators not related to land-cover changes. We discuss the interests and limitations of these different ways to map multiple-ES indicators, regarding the final goals of the maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Amazonia, our knowledge of the trade-offs and possible thresholds in the relationships among social, economic and environmental parameters remains quite limited and hinders the design of sustainable socio-environmental systems. To fill this gap, we analyzed relationships among landscape metrics, socio-economic patterns, biodiversity and soil-based ecosystem services within a total of 51 farms located at 6 sites of the Colombian and Brazilian Amazon. Farms were representative of an initial set of 274 and they represented colonization ages from 10 to 80 years and a range of public policies found in the region. Cluster analysis separated farms in 7 types of production systems according to 5 main criteria (size of the farm, human capital, incomes, farm products and production intensity) selected from an initial set of 18 criteria. Biodiversity was summarized into a composite index Bd built with data from 8 different groups: trees, shrubs, grasses and forbs, birds, Saturnidae and Sphingidae moths, Drosophilidae, earthworms and ants. Provision of ecosystem services was quantified by a composite indicator of 6 sub-indicators of soil hydrological functions, C storage and chemical fertility. Increasing intensity of production systems was linked to a significant decrease of indicators of natural capital biodiversity (Bd) and soil based ecosystem services ( Es ) with 20% and 37.3% variance explained, respectively. No relationship was observed between production systems and an indicator of human wellbeing ( Sb ) based on a set of 5 criteria identified with the farmers. Findings indicate that early colonizers migrate when a certain level of development has been achieved (as a result of their activities) and are replaced by wealthier populations. An overall indicator of sustainability ( Su ) – that combines production efficiency ( Ep ), Sb , Bd and Es indices (ranging from 0.1–1.0) – decreases significantly with the landscape intensification ( Li) with 18.7% variance directly explained by this relationship. Su was also significantly related to production systems (36.4% variance explained): while this indicator remained relatively stable with a value of 0.5 across the early and intermediate phases following deforestation, it dropped down considerably (0.2) for production systems based on cattle ranching on highly degraded pastures with less than 2% forest cover remaining. Restoration with sylvopastoral systems allowed some farms of this former group to increase sustainability to a value of 0.35 after less than 5 years. Agroforestry systems on sites deforested at the same time maintained values around 0.5, as they allowed the maximum production efficiencies and maintained relatively high values of the Biodiversity ( Bd ) and Ecosystem services ( Es ) indexes. This is evidence that beyond the general negative trade-off between human development and natural capital observed in Amazonia, agro ecological options to revert the trend are quite promising. A general methodological approach for the reconstruction of sustainable landscapes in farms of the deforested Amazonian region is proposed as a conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The forest transition framework describes the temporal changes of forest areas with economic development. A first phase of forest contraction is followed by a second phase of expansion once a turning point is reached. This framework does not differentiate forest types or ecosystem services, and describes forests regardless of their contribution to human well-being. For several decades, deforestation in many tropical regions has degraded ecosystem services, such as watershed regulation, while increasing provisioning services from agriculture, for example, food. Forest transitions and expansion have been observed in some countries, but their consequences for ecosystem services are often unclear. We analyzed the implications of forest cover change on ecosystem services in Costa Rica, where a forest transition has been suggested. A review of literature and secondary data on forest and ecosystem services in Costa Rica indicated that forest transition might have led to an ecosystem services transition. We modeled and mapped the changes of selected ecosystem services in the upper part of the Reventazón watershed and analyzed how supply changed over time in order to identify possible transitions in ecosystem services. The modeled changes of ecosystem services is similar to the second phase of a forest transition but no turning point was identified, probably because of the limited temporal scope of the analysis. Trends of provisioning and regulating services and their tradeoffs were opposite in different spatial subunits of our study area, which highlights the importance of scale in the analysis of ecosystem services and forest transitions. The ecosystem services transition framework proposed in this study is useful for analyzing the temporal changes of ecosystem services and linking socio-economic drivers to ecosystem services demand at different scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape dynamics result from forestry and farming practices, both of which are expected to have diverse impacts on ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we investigated this general statement for regulating and supporting services via an assessment of ecosystem functions: climate regulation via carbon sequestration in soil and plant biomass, water cycle and soil erosion regulation via water infiltration in soil, and support for primary production via soil chemical quality and water storage. We tested the hypothesis that patterns of land-cover composition and structure significantly alter ES metrics at two different scales. We surveyed 54 farms in two Amazonian regions of Brazil and Colombia and assessed land-cover composition and structure from remote sensing data (farm scale) from 1990 to 2007. Simple and well-established methods were used to characterize soil and vegetation from five points in each farm (plot scale). Most ES metrics were significantly correlated with land-use (plot scale) and land-cover (farm scale) classifications; however, spatial variability in inherent soil properties, alone or in interaction with land-use or land-cover changes, contributed greatly to variability in ES metrics. Carbon stock in above-ground plant biomass and water infiltration rate decreased from forest to pasture land covers, whereas soil chemical quality and plant-available water storage capacity increased. Land-cover classifications based on structure metrics explained significantly less ES metric variation than those based on composition metrics. Land-cover composition dynamics explained 45 % ( P < 0.001) of ES metric variance, 15 % by itself and 30 % in interaction with inherent soil properties. This study describes how ES evolve with landscape changes, specifying the contribution of spatial variability in the physical environment and highlighting trade-offs and synergies among ES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ecosystem services are perceived diversely by forest stakeholders in Cameroon. • Provisioning and cultural services are the most frequently perceived as significant. • Bushmeat provision is perceived as limiting for local Cameroonian populations. • Spatial and socio-demographic variables can shape perceptions of ES abundance. In Central Africa, local populations are deeply dependent on tropical forests, which provide numerous ecosystem services (ES). For the first time in Central Africa, we assessed the perceptions of ES provided by tropical forests to local populations, considering three land allocation types: a protected area, a Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)-certified logging concession, and three community forests. We conducted a questionnaire survey with 225 forest stakeholders in southeastern Cameroon, combining an open-ended question and 16 directed questions to evaluate the perceptions of ES significance and abundance, respectively. The ES most frequently reported as significant were provisioning (93% of respondents) and cultural & amenity services (68%), whereas regulating services were less mentioned (16%). Bushmeat provision was the only ES perceived as highly significant but not very abundant. There were slight variations of perceptions among forest land allocation types and respondents, suggesting a relative homogeneity in ES abundance. For further integrative ES assessment, we suggest quantifying ES with complementary ecological and economic approaches, such as meat provision, recreation, tourism, timber provision, spiritual experience, firewood provision, water quality regulation, and inspiration for culture. We also give three concrete recommendations for forest management, the most urgent being to provide sources of protein alternative to bushmeat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthworms, as ecosystem engineers, help to mineralize soil organic matter, construct and maintain soil structure, and often stimulate plant growth and protect plants from pests. The aim of this study was (i) to determine the connection between earthworm traits and indicators of soil ecosystem services and (ii) to identify earthworm “response” traits, which are selected by the landscape or changes in the soil, and “effect” traits, which contribute to soil processes. In the southern portion of the state of Parà (eastern Brazilian Amazonia), we sampled earthworms at 135 points distributed among 3 locations, 9 sub-locations and 27 farms (5 sampling points per farm). At each point, three 25 cm × 25 cm soil samples were hand-sorted for earthworms. We measured eight functional traits in 1148 individuals: relative gizzard size, type of typhlosole, length and type of caudal setae, pigmentation, overall length, thickness of septa and musculature in anterior segments. We found a significant, although relatively low, relationship between landscape classes and trait proportions. Earthworm trait proportions significantly covaried with soil parameters and indicators of soil ecosystem services. We did not find significant covariation between earthworm morphospecies and soil ecosystem services. We identified earthworm “response” traits that had been selected and assessed consequences of these changes on effects of earthworm communities (via their “effect” traits) on soil processes and ecosystem services. Typhlosole type, gizzard size and septa thickness were identified as “response” traits selected by soil and landscape conditions. These traits were also identified as “effect” traits for their influence on soil structure. Results indicated a connection between earthworm traits and landscape degradation and soil services, which is a new step toward conceptualizing earthworm ecological studies that go beyond the species level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use changes in the Amazon region strongly impact soil macroinvertebrate communities, which are recognized as major drivers of soil functions ( Lavelle et al., 2006 ). To explore these relations, we tested the hypotheses that (i) soil macrofauna communities respond to landscape changes and (ii) soil macrofauna and ecosystem services are linked. We conducted a survey of macrofauna communities and indicators of ecosystem services at 270 sites in southern Colombia (department of Caqueta) and northern Brazil (state of Pará), two areas of the Amazon where family agriculture dominates. Sites represented a variety of land use types: forests, fallows, annual or perennial crops, and pastures. At each site we assessed soil macroinvertebrate density (18 taxonomic units) and the following ecosystem service indicators: soil and aboveground biomass carbon stock; water infiltration rate; aeration, drainage and water storage capacities based on pore-size distribution; soil chemical fertility; and soil aggregation. Significant covariation was observed between macrofauna communities and landscape metric data (co-inertia analysis: RV = 0.30, p < 0.01, Monte Carlo test) and between macrofauna communities and ecosystem service indicators (co-inertia analysis: RV = 0.35, p < 0.01, Monte Carlo test). Points located in pastures within 100 m of forest had greater macrofauna density and diversity than those located in pastures with no forest within 100 m (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.01). Total macroinvertebrate density was significantly correlated with macroporosity ( r 2 = 0.42, p < 0.01), as was the density of specific taxonomic groups: Chilopoda ( r 2 = 0.43, p < 0.01), Isoptera ( r 2 = 0.30, p < 0.01), Diplopoda ( r 2 = 0.31, p < 0.01), and Formicidae ( r 2 = 0.13, p < 0.01). Total macroinvertebrate density was also significantly correlated with available soil water ( r 2 = 0.38, p < 0.01) as well as other soil-service indicators (but with r 2 < 0.10). Results demonstrate that landscape dynamics and composition affect soil macrofauna communities, and that soil macrofauna density is significantly correlated with soil services in deforested Amazonia, indicating that soil macrofauna have an engineering and/or indicator function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]