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The ecosystem services in an area are quite dependent on its ambient land use and land cover (LULC) attributes. Here we assess the spatio-temporal distribution of Ecosystem Services Value (ESV) for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, based on the then existing LULC aspects of the Kolkata Urban Agglomeration in eastern India. Further, these are simulated for 2030, 2040 and 2050 to determine the future potential ESV. The respective LULC layers were extracted from Landsat images using the support vector machine method and future projections were done using Markov Chain-Cellular Automata models. Results reveal that all LULC aspects are likely to significantly decrease except built-up tracts. The available ESV shall concomitantly decline by 29.7%, especially due to wetland loss. The ESV patterns also showed strong spatial correlation/clustering, with higher ESV patches locating along rivers/wetlands. These results can better inform management of high-value EVS components for sustaining/improving the urban environmental quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization has profound influence on the changes of land use and land cover, which on the other hand exert significant impact on ecosystem services and their values, especially in the urban agglomerations. Kolkata urban agglomeration of India has been selected to determine the causes in changes of ecosystem services under present and projected land use land cover scenario. Land use land cover maps of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were prepared by support vector machine method, using LANDSAT satellite imageries and projected up-to 2040 using CA–Markov model. Built-up land was increased by 65.39% during 1990–2020 and will further increase to 76.88% by 2040. Built-up lands are mainly encroaching crop lands and wetlands. During the period of fifty years (1990–2040), the ecosystem service value will decrease from $38,486.49 to $28,060.79, with annual rate of decrement of 0.54%. During the same period, the spatial extent of very low ecosystem service value will be increased from 16.60 to 58.88%; whereas, the area coverage of very high ecosystem service value will be decreased from 2.69 to 2.35%. Water supply contributed highest ecosystem service value followed by disturbance regulation and nutrient cycling; whereas, lacking in soil formation, pollination and biological control services contributed lowest. The study will help in decision making process for sustainable management of natural resources and also provide useful guideline for the quality improvement in urban ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]