1. Impacts of climate change on the Bay of Seine ecosystem: Forcing a spatio‐temporal trophic model with predictions from an ecological niche model
- Author
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Quentin Nogues, Samantha Grusd, Aurore Raoux, Georges Safi, Emma Araignous, Tarek Hattab, Boris Leroy, Pierre Bourdaud, Frida Ben Rais Lasram, Juliette Champagnat, Nathalie Niquil, Ghassen Halouani, Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), France Energies Marines [Brest], Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa ( MA-RE), University of Cape Town, Department of Biological Sciences, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa, Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Ifremer, Laboratory of Fisheries Resources, Boulogne-Sur-Mer, France, MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), Musée National d'Histoire Naturelle de Luxembourg (MNHN), Normandie Université (NU), Morphodynamique Continentale et Côtière (M2C), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Nord]), Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO), Laboratoire Ressources halieutiques Boulogne sur mer (LRHBL), Halieutique Manche Mer du Nord (HMMN), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Ecological niche ,Ecospace ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Climate change ,Forcing (mathematics) ,Aquatic Science ,Oceanography ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,climate change ,13. Climate action ,ecological niche modelling ,fisheries ,Environmental science ,Ecosystem ,14. Life underwater ,[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology ,Bay ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,Trophic level ,trophic interactions - Abstract
(IF 2.67; Q1); International audience; Climate change is already known to cause irreversible impacts on ecosystems that are difficult to accurately predict due to the multiple scales at which it will interact. Predictions at the community level are mainly focused on the future distribution of marine species biomass using ecological niche modelling, which requires extensive efforts concerning the effects that trophic interactions could have on the realized species dynamics. In this study, a set of species distribution models predictions were used to force the spatially-explicit trophic model Ecospace in order to evaluate the potentials impacts that two 2,100 climate scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, could have on a highly exploited ecosystem, the Bay of Seine (France). Simulations demonstrated that both scenarios would influence the community of the Bay of Seine ecosystem: as expected, more intense changes were predicted with the extreme scenario RCP8.5 than with the RCP2.6 scenario. Under both scenarios, a majority of species underwent a decrease of biomass, although some increased. However, in both cases the stability of the majority of species dynamics was lowered, the sustainability of the fishery. Differences between niche modelling predictions and those obtained through the forcing in Ecospace highlighted the paramount importance of considering trophic interactions in climate change simulations. These results illustrate the requirement of multiplying novel approaches for efficiently forecasting potential impacts of climate change.
- Published
- 2021