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This paper uses GARCH models and daily data to investigate the effect of the Canada – U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) and NAFTA on the volatility of, and the relationship between stock market returns and changes in bilateral exchange rates of the member countries. Empirical results indicate that the CUSFTA had a stabilizing effect on the Canadian and U.S. equity markets while increasing the volatility of the CAD/USD exchange rate. NAFTA further reduced the two stock markets’ volatility, however unlike CUSFTA, NAFTA also reduced the volatility of the CAD/USD exchange rate. Additional results indicate that during NAFTA, the Mexican stock market is more volatile than the other stock and bilateral exchange markets. Moreover, the exchange rate of the Mexican peso against both the U.S. and Canadian dollars has been more volatile than the Canadian dollar/US dollar exchange rate. Evidence also suggests that all three stock markets are positively correlated with each other with the U.S. market being much less correlated with the Canadian and Mexican stock markets than the latter two markets are correlated with each other. Evidence found in this paper suggests a negative relationship between the stock and bilateral currency markets that is statistically significant except for the U.S. equity market when paired with an exchange rate that involves the Mexican peso.

We study the importance of individual characteristics and national factors influencing individual attitudes towards the impact of multinational corporations on local businesses. Our sample includes more than 40 000 respondents in 29 countries from the 2003 National Identity Survey conducted by the International Social Survey Programme. We find that individual demographic factors and socioeconomic status, such as gender, age, income and education, are strong predictors of their attitudes. For example, income and education are positively associated with favourable attitudes towards the impact of multinational corporations (MNCs) on local businesses while age is negatively associated with individual attitudes towards MNCs. In addition, hierarchical ordered logit model results show that approximately 8% of total variations in individual attitudes around our sample mean are not explained by differences in personal traits. Instead, they are due to country-level heterogeneity such as, but not limited to,...

During the past two decades, a growing body of research has explored the implications of increased trade and financial openness for the relationship between output and inflation. This paper reviews proposed theoretical channels through which the degree of openness might ultimately affect the output-inflation trade-off and surveys the empirical studies that have sought to determine the net effect of greater openness on this trade-off. In addition, the paper utilizes a single cross-country data set to evaluate, taking into account recent developments in the literature, the likely sign and significance of this net effect. In particular, we find current data imply that there is a negative and significant relationship between openness and the sacrifice ratio, regardless of the transmission channel that is proposed.

PurposeMegachurches are thriving in religious markets at a time when Americans are asserting their ability as consumers of religious products to engage in religious switching. The apparent success of megachurches, which often provide a low cost and low commitment path by which religious refugees may join the church, seems to challenge Iannocconne's theory that high commitment churches will thrive while low commitment churches will atrophy. This paper aims to investigate this issue.Design/methodology/approachThis paper employs a signaling model to illustrate the strategy and organizational forms megachurches employ to indicate a match between what the church produces and the religious refugee wishes to consume in an effort to increase their membership. The model illustrates that megachurches expect little in regard to financial or time commitment of new attendees. However, once the attendees perceive a good fit with the church, the megachurch increases its expectation of commitment. Data from the FACT2000 survey provide evidence in support of the model's predictions.FindingsData from the FACT2000 survey provide evidence in support of the model's predictions.Originality/valueThe paper serves to illustrate the dynamic process by which megachurches attract new attendees and transform those that find a good fit between their needs and what the church offers into full members of the church.

Though the recent literature offers intuitively appealing bases for, and evidence of, a linkage among religious beliefs, religious participation and economic outcomes, evidence on a relationship between religion and trust is mixed. By allowing for an attendance effect, disaggregating Protestant denominations, and using a more extensive data set, probit models of the General Social Survey (GSS), 1975 through 2000, show that black Protestants, Pentecostals, fundamentalist Protestants, and Catholics, trust others less than individuals who do not claim a preference for a particular denomination. For conservative denominations the effect of religion is through affiliation, not attendance. In contrast, liberal Protestants trust others more and this effect is reinforced by attendance. The impact of religion on moderate Protestants is only through attendance, as frequency of attendance increases trust of others while the denomination effect is insignificant.

The standard time-inconsistency-based explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation requires an inverse relationship between the sacrifice ratio and openness, but Daniels et al. (2005, Openness, central bank independence, and the sacrifice ratio. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 37 (2), 371–379.) have provided evidence that controlling for central bank independence reveals a positive relationship. This paper embeds the time-inconsistency approach within a model of a multisector, imperfectly competitive, open economy. In this setting, greater openness raises the sacrifice ratio but reduces the inflation bias. Thus, failure to observe an inverse relationship between openness and the sacrifice ratio does not necessarily imply that the time-inconsistency approach is irrelevant to understanding the openness–inflation relationship.

This paper develops a model of an open economy containing both sectors in which wages are market-determined and sectors with wage-setting arrangements. A portion of the latter group of sectors coordinate their wages, taking into account that their collective actions influence the equilibrium inflation outcome in an environment in which the central bank engages in discretionary monetary policymaking. Key predictions forthcoming from this model are (1) increased centralization of wage setting initially causes inflation to increase at low degrees of wage centralization but then, as wage centralization increases, results in an inflation drop-off; (2) a greater degree of centralized wage setting reduces the inflation-restraining effect of greater central bank independence; and (3) increased openness is more likely to reduce inflation in nations with less centralized wage bargaining. Analysis of data for seventeen nations for the period 1970–1999 provides generally robust empirical support for all three of these predictions.

Traditional explanations of the negative correlation between openness and inflation presume that an inverse relationship between the degree of openness and the sacrifice ratio reduces the inflation bias of descretionary monetary policy. Temple (2002) concludes, however, that such a relationship fails to emerge in cross-country data. Our analysis of the same cross-country data considered by Temple indicates that once the degree of central bank independence and its interaction with greater openness and the sacrifice ratio. In addition, increased openness lessens the positive effect of central bank independence on the sacrifice ratio.

This paper applies a two-country framework that allows for currency substitution in an environment in which policymakers optimally vary interest rates in light of utility-based objectives, one country pegs the value of its currency to the other nation’s currency, and government revenue is generated via explicit taxes and seigniorage. The analysis illustrates the roles that currency substitution, currency preferences, and efficiency of tax systems play in contributing to the likelihood of a “run” on one nation’s currency. We explore how these factors interact to influence the probability of a currency crisis in the country that fixes its exchange rate.

This paper surveys the literature that uses two-country models to analyze monetary and fiscal policy issues faced in interdependent economies. We discuss sources of structural interdependence that researchers typically include in these models. We describe many of the types of policy interactions that researchers have considered and summarize the key results that they have obtained. Finally, we briefly explain the limitations of two-country models and outline directions that this literature might usefully be extended.

In this paper, a two-country leader-follower model with imperfect asset substitution is used to derive the optimal sterilization coefficients for two-country flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes. It is found that, in general, incomplete sterilization is optimal. However, both the origin and the type of macroeconomic shocks the economies experience are important in determining the appropriate degree of sterilization. We also find that sterilization policies have spill-over effects (strategic complements) in both cases. Thus, in a competitive policy-making environment, greater sterilization by one country leads to greater sterilization by the other country. Further, the impact of increasing capital market integration is examined in particular. We show that greater integration compounds this problem, leading to full sterilization as the optimal outcome under perfect capital mobility.

This article considers a transition toward European monetary union that combines increased substitution of currencies and greater monetary, financial, and fiscal policy coordination. It explores how such a transition would affect national inflation and interest rates and required reserve ratios when governments depend in part on seigniorage funding for public expenditures. We find that greater coordination of policies would lead to lower inflation and interest rates but higher reserve-requirement ratios. Because higher reserve-requirement ratios could place European banks at a competititve disadvantage, we conclude that the interaction between reserve requirements and seigniorage concerns makes it less likely that the gradualist approach of the Maastricht treaty is a sustainable means of transition to European union.

The recent advances in the econometrics of integrated time series by Johansen are applied to the much examined Fisher effect. While the existing literature is concerned with whether there is a stable long-run equilibrium relation between the nominal rate of interest and inflation, the existence of a one-to-one relation along this path is also tested. Moreover, it is found that in the long run there is a unidirectional causality from the inflation rate to the rate of interest. However, in the short-run there is a feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables.

Most nations have experienced ‘base drift’ of their money stocks and associated price-level non-trend-stationarities. Recent explanations for this fact have emphasized tensions among various possible objectives of central banks in closed-economy or small-open-economy frameworks. In contrast, this paper explores structural and policy interdependence among economies as an explanation for price-level non-trend-stationarities. It demonstrates that such interdependence can induce central banks to follow non-trend-stationary policies even if they desire only to smooth prices in their home economies.

Considerable recent work has reached mixed conclusions about whether and how globalization affects the inflation–output trade-off and suggests that the ultimate effect of openness on the output–inflation relationship is influenced by a variety of factors. In this paper, we consider the impact of exchange-rate pass through and examine how pass through conditions the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio. We develop a simple theoretical model showing how the extent of both pass through and openness can interact to influence the output–inflation relationship. Next we empirically explore the nature of these two variables and their interaction. Results indicate that greater pass through increases the sacrifice ratio, that there is statistically significant interaction between pass through and openness, and—once the extent of pass through is taken into account alongside other factors that affect the sacrifice ratio, such as central bank independence—openness fails to exert an empirically robust effect on the sacrifice ratio.

This paper considers a model of an open economy in which the degree of income-tax progressivity influences the interaction among openness, central bank independence, and the inflation rate. Our model suggests that an increase in the progressivity of the tax system induces a smaller response in real output to a change in the price level. This implies that increased income-tax progressivity reduces the equilibrium inflation rate and that the effect of increased income-tax progressivity on inflation is smaller when the central bank places a higher weight on inflation or when there is greater openness. Examination of cross-country inflation data provides empirical support for these key predictions.

This paper develops and evaluates empirically the implications of a theoretical model of an open economy in which variations in both trade openness and capital mobility can influence the sacrifice ratio. Key predictions forthcoming from the model are that both forms of globalization can independently affect the sacrifice ratio, once the influences of the level of central bank independence and the degree of wage stickiness in nations’ economies are taken into account. Examination of cross-country data encompassing 58 disinflations for 16 countries yields evidence consistent with these essential predictions of the theoretical framework.