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textabstractWe draw on a discontinuity at a large university, wherein second-year students with a low first-year grade point average are allocated to a full year of forced, frequent, and regular attendance, to estimate the causal effect of additional structure on academic performance. We show that the policy increases student attendance but has no average effect on grades. The effects differ, however, depending on how course instructors handled unforced students, such that we observe significant grade decreases in courses where unforced students were given full discretion over their attendance. Our evidence suggests that grades decrease in these courses because the policy prevented forced students from picking their desired mix of study inputs.

We study the effects of a policy aimed at attracting more experienced and better qualified teachers in primary schools in disadvantaged neighborhoods in Uruguay. Teachers in these schools could earn higher salaries. Estimates from regression discontinuity models show that the policy increased experience by two to three years. The policy was especially successful in ‘hiring experience from other schools’, but also increased tenure. However, the effect on student outcomes appears to be small. The distinction between ‘hiring or keeping’ teachers seems important for explaining this result. Keeping teachers appears to be more beneficial for students than hiring experienced teachers. We also find that the effect of the policy is better for schools that replaced teachers with less than five years of experience.

Many studies have found a strong association between economic outcomes of nations and their performance on international cognitive tests. This association is often interpreted as evidence for the importance of cognitive skills for economic growth. However, noncognitive skills also affect performance on cognitive tests. Following Borghans and Schils (2012), we exploit exogenous variation in the ordering of questions asked by the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) to decompose student performance into two components: the starting performance and the decline in performance during the test. The latter component is interpreted as a measure of noncognitive skills. Students from different countries exhibit differences in performance at the start of the test and in their rates of deterioration in performance during the test. Both components have a positive and statistically significant association with economic growth, and the estimated effects are quite similar and robust. Our results show that noncognitive skills are also important for the relationship between test scores and economic growth.

This paper investigates the empirical validity of the setup of a large-scale government neighbourhood investment programme in the Netherlands. Selection of neighbourhoods into the programme was determined by a measure of neighbourhood quality. At first sight this is a textbook example for the application of a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of the programme on neighbourhood outcomes. Neighbourhoods close to the threshold should be similar before the programme starts. However, at the discontinuity threshold we observe a surprisingly large gap in the share of non-Western immigrants between neighbourhoods that were selected into the programme and neighbourhoods that were not. In addition, there is non-compliance with the assignment rule based on the quality index. The pattern of non-compliance is consistent with investing in neighbourhoods with a high share of non-Western immigrants. Finally, the way in which neighbourhoods were defined could be a likely explanation for the imbalance in the share of non-Western immigrants at the discontinuity threshold.

This paper investigates the effect of physical and sexual child maltreatment on several types of illegal and problematic behaviour. By using variation within pairs of twins, we are able to mitigate concerns about confounding factors from previous studies. Using ordinary least squares and twin fixed effects estimation approaches, we find that child maltreatment has a large effect on illegal and problematic behaviours such as drug abuse, conduct disorders, and crime. The estimated effects suggest an increase of illegal and problematic behaviour between 50 and 100%. Our findings are consistent with the so-called cycle of violence hypothesis.

This paper examines the causal link that runs from classroom quality to student achievement using data on twin pairs who entered the same school but were allocated to different classrooms in an exogenous way. In particular, we apply twin fixed-effects estimation to assess the effect of teacher quality on student test scores from second through eighth grade of primary education, arguing that a change in teacher quality is probably the most important classroom intervention within a twin context. In a series of estimations using measurable teacher characteristics, we find that (a) the test performance of all students improves with teacher experience; (b) teacher experience also matters for student performance after the initial years in the profession; (c) the teacher experience effect is most prominent in earlier grades; (d) the teacher experience effects are robust to the inclusion of other classroom quality measures, such as peer group composition and class size; and (e) an increase in teacher experience also matters for career stages with less labor market mobility, which suggests positive returns to on-the-job learning of teachers.

We examine how the gender of a sibling affects labor market outcomes and family formation. Identification is complicated by parental preferences: if parents prefer certain sex compositions over others, children' s gender affects not only the outcomes of other children but also the existence of potential additional children. We employ two empirical strategies that both address this problem. First, we use a large sample of singletons to estimate whether first-borns are affected by the gender of their second-born sibling. Second, we look at a sample of dizygotic (i.e. non-identical) twins. We find that a same-sex sibling increases men's earnings and family formation outcomes (marriage and fertility), as compared to an opposite-sex sibling. The results for women are similar but the effects are smaller in magnitude and less robust. We argue that the income result for men could be driven by competition between brothers, as we find that men with brothers choose higher paying occupations. For women, we find suggestive evidence that the income premium may come partly from lower unemployment, which could be due to shared job search networks. The effects on family formation might stem from differential parental treatment for men, and from competition between sisters for women.

School dropout is an important social and economic problem. This paper investigates the effect of an intensive coaching program aimed at reducing school dropout rates among students aged 16–20. Students received support and guidance with their study activities, personal problems and internships in firms. The coaching program lasted one or two years. Students were randomly assigned to the coaching program. We find that one year of coaching reduced school dropout rates by more than 40% from 17 to 10 percentage points. The second year of coaching further reduced school dropout by 1 percentage point. The program is most effective for students with a high ex-ante probability of dropping out, such as students no longer obliged to be in formal education, male students, and students not living with both parents. Cost-benefit analysis suggests that one year of coaching is likely to yield a net social gain.

In many Dutch cities there are Geert Groote schools. This is no coincidence, because Geert Groote's (1340-1384) ideas form the foundation of modern education in the Netherlands and many other countries. Much less known is that his investments, and those of his followers, have put the Netherlands on the pathway towards the Golden Age. In this study, we describe the mechanism by which the influence of Groote so impressive. Furthermore, we present econometric estimates that indicate a long-lasting legacy. This research provides an explanation for high literacy, economic growth and societal developments in the Netherlands in the period before the Dutch Republic. We establish a link between the Brethren of the Common Life (BCL), a religious community founded by Geert Groote in the city of Deventer in the late fourteenth century, and the early development of the Netherlands. The BCL stimulated human capital accumulation by educating Dutch citizens without inducing animosity from the dominant Roman Catholic Church or other political rulers. Human capital had an impact on the structure of economic development in the period immediately after 1400. The educated workforce put pressure on the Habsburg monarchy leading to economic and religious resentment and eventually to the Revolt in 1572. The analyses show that the BCL contributed to the high rates of literacy in the Netherlands. In addition, there are positive effects of the BCL on book production and on city growth in the fifteenth and sixteenth century. Finally, we find that cities with BCL-roots were more likely to join the Dutch Revolt. These findings are supported by regressions that use distance to Deventer as an instrument for the presence of BCL. The results are robust to a number of alternative explanations. The statistical programme used for the regression analysis and the data used for this research can also be downloaded below (attachment, if necessary rename the file as a .zip).

We analyse the causal effect of education on starting and quitting smoking, using longitudinal data of Australian twins. We take into account the endogeneity of education, censoring of smoking durations and the timing of starting smoking versus that of completing education by using the flexible Mixed Proportional Hazard (MPH) specification. Unobserved effects in the specification are assumed to be twin specific and possibly correlated with completed education years. In addition, we use various unique control indicators reflecting the discounting behaviour of individuals that may affect both the smoking decision and the number of education years. In contrast to previous studies in our model specification, differences in the number of education years cannot explain differences in smoking behaviour at young ages. We find one additional year of education to reduce the duration of smoking with 9 months, but no significant effect of education on starting smoking. The effect of education on quitting smoking largely confines to male twins. This suggests that education policies that succeed in raising the level of education may improve public health through an increase of smoking cessation, but are not effective in preventing smoking at young ages.

This paper reports about a randomized experiment in which training vouchers of €1000 were given to low-skilled workers. The vouchers increase training participation by almost 20 percentage points in two years, relative to a base rate of 0.45. This increased participation comes at a substantial deadweight loss of almost 60%. Consistent with predictions from human capital theory, we find that vouchers cause a shift towards more general forms of training. We do not find any significant impact of the program on monthly wages or on job mobility. The program does, however, have a significant impact on future training plans. Compared to always-takers, new trainees are more often male, more risk averse, work shorter hours and are less likely to have participated in training prior to treatment. Compared to never-takers, they are more often female, work longer hours and have a somewhat lower formal education level.

This paper examines whether gay and lesbian workers sort into tolerant occupations. With information on sexual orientation, prejudice and occupational choice taken from Australian Twin Registers, we find that gays and lesbians shy away from prejudiced occupations. We show that our segregation results are largely driven by those gay and lesbian workers with disclosed identities, and robust to the inclusion of unobserved factors that are inherited and observed factors that strongly correlate with productive skills and vocational preferences. Our segregation estimates are generally large and consistent with prejudice based theories of employer and employee discrimination against gay and lesbian workers.

In many countries there is a deep concern about shortages of Science and Engineering workers (S&E). This article focuses on the effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating the supply of S&E workers in the Netherlands. Despite the ‘common wisdom’ of severe and increasing shortages, we do not find evidence for a tight labour market of S&E workers. Instead, the data suggest that S&E workers have become less scarce since 1996. Stimulating enrolment in S&E studies may not be an effective policy for increasing R&D activity in the Netherlands because the majority of Dutch S&E freshmen do not end up working in R&D. They drop out during their S&E study or choose other jobs. In addition, the internationalization of the market for S&E workers tends to counter the effects of supply-side policies because the growing supply of foreign S&E graduates puts downward pressure on wages. As a result, demand-side policies may be more effective because they are directly targeted at fostering R&D.

This paper investigates the effect of a major reform in the final years of the two highest levels of Dutch secondary education. The reform focused on increasing active and independent learning and aimed to improve the match between secondary and higher education. We use data from six graduation cohorts from Dutch higher education and exploit the fact that two recent graduation cohorts contain both students that were treated with the new curriculum and students that were treated with the old curriculum. The effects of the curriculum change have been estimated by using a difference-in-differences approach for matched samples of treated and untreated graduates. We find that the reform had no effect on student performance and labour market outcomes.

This paper investigates the effect of the timing of tracking on completion of higher education by exploiting unique variation from the Dutch education system. At the age of 12 Dutch students can enrol in tracked schools or in comprehensive schools. The comprehensive schools postpone enrolment into tracked classes by one or two years. OLS- and IV-estimates, using regional variation in the supply of schools as instruments, show that early tracking has a detrimental effect on completion of higher education for students at the margin of the Dutch high and low tracks. The negative effects of early tracking are larger for students with relatively high ability or students with a higher socioeconomic background. In addition, we find no negative effects of comprehensive classes on higher ability students. These results suggest that increasing participation in comprehensive classes would increase graduation from higher education.

We use a novel quasi-experimental strategy to estimate the effect of expanding early schooling enrollment possibilities on early achievement. It exploits two features of the school system in The Netherlands. The first is rolling admissions; children are allowed to start school immediately after their 4th birthday instead of at the beginning of the school year. The second is that children having their birthday before, during and after the summer holiday are placed in the same class. These features generate sufficient exogenous variation in children’s enrollment opportunities to identify its effects on test scores. Making available one additional month of time in school increases language scores of disadvantaged pupils by 6 percent of a standard deviation and their math scores by 5 percent of a standard deviation. For non-disadvantaged pupils we find no effect.

This paper estimates the causal effect of teenage childbearing on educational attainment using two cohorts of Australian twins and their relatives. Our main finding is that the negative effect of teenage childbearing on educational attainment appears to be small. We find no difference in educational attainment between teen mothers and their identical twin sisters. Data on the relatives of the twins enable us to compare a teen mother with both her twin sister and her other sibling sisters. When twin sisters are used as a control group instead of sibling sisters, the estimated difference in educational attainment is much smaller.

This paper investigates whether studying abroad increases the propensity to live abroad later on. We use an instrumental variable approach based on cut-offs in the ranking of Dutch higher education graduates who applied for a scholarship programme for outstanding students. Applicants ranked above the cut-off received a scholarship to study abroad. Applicants ranked below the cut-off were denied a scholarship. Assignment of a scholarship increases the probability to study abroad and the number of months spent studying abroad. Studying abroad and the number of months spent studying abroad increase the probability of currently living abroad.

This paper evaluates the effects of two subsidies targeted at schools with large proportions of disadvantaged pupils. The first scheme gives primary schools with at least 70% disadvantaged minority pupils extra funding for personnel. The second scheme gives primary schools with at least 70% pupils from any disadvantaged group extra funding for computers and software. The cutoffs provide a regression discontinuity design that we exploit in a local difference-in-differences framework. For both subsidies we find negative point estimates, which are for some outcomes significantly different from 0. Extra funding for computers and software seems especially detrimental for girls' achievement. The negative effects of extra funding for computers and software are consistent with results from other recent studies casting doubt on the efficacy of computers in schools. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

This study investigates the long-term effects of peace-time military conscription on educational attainment and earnings by exploiting a policy change that exempted a complete birth cohort from military service. We find that compulsory military service decreases the proportion of Dutch university graduates by 1.5 percentage points from a baseline of 12.3 per cent. In addition, being a conscript reduces the probability of obtaining a university degree by almost four percentage points. The effect of military service on earnings is also negative and long-lasting. Approximately 18 years after military service, we still find a negative effect of 3 to 4 per cent. The effect of conscription on educational attainment does not fully explain the wage reduction. Jel classification H56; J31; J24

This paper investigates the impact of student support on performance and time allocation of students in Dutch higher education. In 1996 the maximum duration of grants was reduced by 1 year, and thereby limited to the nominal duration of the study program. This reform could have had substantial financial consequences for students. We evaluate the effects of the reform using a difference-in-differences approach. Our main findings are that after the reform, students early in their study (i) switched less to other programs, (ii) obtained higher grades, while (iii) they did not spend more time studying or working. In addition, for students not older than 20 years when they started their study we find larger effects on all performance variables (switching, percentage of completed courses, graduation in the first year and grade point averages). These findings are consistent with recent evidence on heterogeneous treatment effects for higher ability students.

In recent years, a wave of new studies on the effects of educational interventions on student performance has emerged. The realization that inputs in the education process are endogenous is important for the validity of traditional findings. Because of ignoring endogeneity bias, all traditional estimates might be wrong. Recent studies exploit exogenous variation in interventions in education produced by controlled or natural experiments. Results generated by this methodological innovation differ substantially from the traditional findings. This article reviews this new literature, illustrates new methods for identifying causal effects of interventions in education and compares the findings with the traditional literature.

This paper analyzes the determinants of choosing a technical study at university level and of staying in it. We find that – in The Netherlands – there is little correlation between the probability of a student choosing a technical study and the probability of completing it. This implies that a substantial number of technically talented people choose non-technical studies. Especially female students and students from high income families are unlikely to attent a technical study but these students are relatively successful in such studies. A large part of these technically talented students are attracted to medical studies and law schools, where they are no more likely to persist than other medical and law students. This finding is predicted by the tournament model in which rewards are based on relative performance instead of absolute performance.

This paper investigates the effect of a new type of financial incentive in education targeted at regional authorities. Previous studies have focused on financial incentives for students, teachers or schools. We identify the effect by exploiting the gradual introduction of a new policy aimed at reducing school dropout in the Netherlands. The introduction of the policy in 14 out of 39 regions and the use of a specific selection rule for the participating regions allow us to estimate local difference-in-differences models. Using administrative data for all Dutch students in the year before and the year after the introduction of the new policy we find no effect of the financial incentive scheme on school dropout. In addition, we find suggestive evidence for manipulation of outcomes in response to the program.

This paper investigates the question whether crime reduces investment in human capital or whether education reduces criminal activity by using fixed effect estimation on data of Australian twins. The study takes genetic and socio-economic factors shared by the twins into account. We find that early arrests (before the age of 18) have a strong effect on human capital accumulation. In addition, we find that education decreases crime. However, controlling for early arrests and early behaviour problems reduces the estimated effect of human capital on crime to less than on third of the previously estimated association. From this, we conclude that the strong association between human capital and crime is mainly driven by the effect of early criminal behaviour on educational attainment. The strong detrimental effects of early criminal behaviour become also transparent if we consider the estimated effects of early arrests on three measures of crime. We also find large effects of early criminal behaviour on participation in crime later on. This suggests that programs that succeed in preventing early criminal behaviour might yield high social and private returns.

In this paper we investigate the determinants of higher education enrolment in The Netherlands and estimate three different economic models referring to investment motives, consumption motives, and a combination of these two. By estimating these models for different years (1982 and 1991) we identify changes over time. The importance of financial variables appears to be vanishing. Moreover, we find that enrolment is no longer related to ability variables. We offer explanations for these findings. Finally, we employ the results to simulate some policy measures.

We use two large data sets to estimate the Risk Augmented Mincer equation and test for risk compensation in expected earnings. We replicate earlier findings of a positive premium for risk and a negative premium for skew and add confirmation of the key results if we control for individual ability. We compare risk compensation and risk distributions between some labor market groups and find that immigrants and natives do not differ in risk attitudes, that public sector workers are undercompensated for their risk, and that risk compensation by gender is not fully consistent with higher risk aversion for women. We express concern that a linear compensation model may be too simple.