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This paper estimates the effects of potential post-Brexit UK trade and domestic agricultural policy scenarios on the economic welfare (real income) of farm households, at both regional (devolved ad...

Johne's disease is an endemic contagious bacterial infection of ruminants which is prevalent in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. It can lower financial returns on infected farms by reducing farm productivity through output losses and control expenditures. A farm-level analysis of the economics of the disease was conducted taking account of farm variability and different disease prevalence levels. The aim was to assess the financial impacts of a livestock disease on farms and determine their financial vulnerability if farm support payments were to be removed under future policy reforms. A farm-level optimization model, ScotFarm, was used on 50 Scottish dairy farms taken from the Farm Business Survey to determine the impacts of the disease. A counterfactual comparison of five alternative "disease" scenarios with a "no-disease" scenario was carried out to evaluate economic impact of the disease. The extent of a farm's reliance on direct support payments was considered to be an indicator of their financial vulnerability. Under this definition, farms were grouped into three financial vulnerability risk categories; "low risk," "medium risk," and "high risk" farms. Results show that farms are estimated to incur a loss of 32% on average of their net profit under a standard disease prevalence level. Farms in the "low risk" and "medium risk" categories were estimated to have a lower financial impact of the disease (22 and 28% reduction on farm net profit, respectively) which, along with their lower reliance on farm direct support payments, indicate they would be more resilient to the disease under future changes in farm payment support. On the contrary, farms in the "high risk" category were estimated to have a reduction of 50% on their farm net profit. A majority of these farms (61%) in the "high risk" category move from being profitable to loss making under the standard disease scenario when farm support payments are removed. Of these, 15% do so because of the impact of the disease. These farms will be more vulnerable if changes were to be made in farm support payments under future agricultural policy reforms.

We estimate the impact of diversification on the performance of farm businesses using measures of economic viability among farms in Scotland and Sweden. We derive indicators of viability using national level accounting surveys for the period 2000–2012 and account for short-term and long-term effects within our estimates of viability. A higher proportion of Scottish farms emerge as being more short-term and long-term viable than Swedish farms. This could, we propose, be due to emphasis on enhancing farm viability within Scottish planning for rural development, compared to Sweden which emphasized productivity and environmental enhancement. Moreover, for both countries the trend in viability is relatively stable until 2007, when both panels begin to display the impact of policy and market change. Findings based on a multinomial logistic regression indicate that farms which run additional ventures outside traditional agriculture, and are diversified in the sense that they obtain revenue from two or more agricultural enterprises, are more viable compared to specialized agricultural units. Other factors which affect viability were found to be structural, biophysical and institutional, specifically the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 2003. However the significance and magnitude of these effects differ across the two countries. Consequently, these results seem to imply the importance of emphasizing non-specialized agricultural activities within rural development policy and, moreover, informs the rationale behind proposed redistributions of CAP payments.

This repository contains a series of brochures promoting the work of the Land Economy, Environment and Society research group.

The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application) simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

This paper estimates the inefficiencies associated with the regionalisation of the milk quota trade. An optimisation model is developed to estimate the economic value of quota. Quota values are aggregated to derive quota sale and purchase curves under two scenarios: first, where quotas can be traded nationally and second, where the trade of quota is regionally restricted. Quota trade is simulated and the consequent effects on supplier structure estimated. Through the derivation of sectoral cumulative cost curves it is possible to estimate the impact of regionalising quota trade on sector efficiency. The model is solved using National Farm Survey data from Ireland and the inefficiencies of regionalised quota trade in Ireland are estimated at €27 million. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of restricted quota trade, especially in the context of eventual quota removal.

Irish agriculture has undergone fundamental transformations in the last two decades. A growing divergence between farming and non-farming incomes and a significant increase in part-time farming have led to intense debates surrounding the future viability of the Irish farmer. Irrespective of such deliberations, agriculture still remains an important employer and contributor to the regional economies of Ireland, a factor that is discussed in this paper. An analysis of the financial performance of farms shows that the regions that rely most on agriculture as an employer have the most economically and physically disadvantaged farms. The paper examines the role of agricultural policy in addressing this regional imbalance. In particular, the recent decoupling policy is examined. The results of economic models suggest that the decoupling reform increases the viability of farming in Ireland across all regions. However, the decision to implement the historical decoupled payment scheme has served to perpet...