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The option-implied oil price volatility is a strong negative predictor of economic growth beyond traditional uncertainty measures. A rise in oil volatility also predicts an increase in oil inventories and a reduction in oil consumption, in line with a propagation channel through the oil sector. We explain these findings within a macro-finance model featuring stochastic uncertainties and precautionary oil inventories: firms increase oil inventories when oil volatility rises, which curbs oil use for production and depresses economic activity. In the model and the data, aggregate equity prices fall at times of high oil volatility, with differential exposures across economic sectors.

This paper examined the causal relationships among CO2 emission, oil consumption, and economic growth in Thailand. The data used in this study was the yearly data from 1971 to 2014. The ARDL and Granger causality approaches were employed. Overall, the empirical results showed that it had established a long-run relationship among CO2 emission, oil consumption, and economic growth. Moreover, there is a one-way (unidirectional) short-run Granger causality between oil consumption and CO2 emission. In addition, there is a one-way (unidirectional) long-run Granger causality between oil consumption and CO2 emission and a one-way long-run causal route from oil consumption to economic growth and CO2 emission. Finally, the empirical results of this study provided that policymakers need to improve efficiency in oil consumption not to increase CO2 emissions. Furthermore, policymakers should endeavor to overcome the constraints on oil consumption to achieve economic growth.Keywords: oil consumption, CO2 emission, economic growth, ARDL, and Granger causality approachesJEL Classifications: C13, C20DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11811

The dynamic evolution of the seasonal patterns in world oil consumption is dictated by complex interactions between regional consumers. Although this global pattern was stable and predictable in the past, recently it has undergone dramatic changes that have not been well understood yet. This paper contributes to literature on oil consumption behaviours by analysing the counter-balance of ‘coincident’ and ‘counter-directional’ regional seasonal patterns that have time-varying amplitude relative to their longer-term trends. It is shown that the recent global seasonal changes have been mainly driven by long-run demand trends in fast-growing emerging markets and, to a lesser extent, by idiosyncratic changes in regions’ seasonal amplitude. Our analysis is relevant to energy policy in general as both global and regional oil consumption seasonality have important implications for oil pricing, investment decisions, hedging, geopolitics and energy security.

This research aims to study the existence and direction of the short-run or long-run relationship between per capita oil consumption and gross domestic product in India. The data from 1965 to 2015 had analyzed by employing the vector error correction model. For the verification of the same result, a standard Granger causality test had performed. The study results have suggested the existence of a long-run relationship and show the direction of changes in gross domestic product cause changes in oil consumption. As a policy implication, economic growth can be considered a policy variable to improve India's oil resources.

Few study has been conducted to forecast India's dependence on foreign oil, although India is the world's third-largest oil consumer and exporter, making it a key player in the oil market. This work is aimed to accurately forecast India's dependence on foreign oil. To develop better forecasting techniques, this study used linear Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and nonlinear Back Propagation (BP) to correct nonlinear metabolic grey model (NMGM) forecasting residuals in three steps: (i) integrating the metabolic idea with a nonlinear grey model to develop NMGM, (ii) integrating the proposed NMGM with ARIMA to develop NMGM-ARIMA, and (iii) integrating the proposed NMGM with BP to develop NMGM-BP. To further improve forecasting accuracy, this work forecasted the India's dependence on foreign oil from two perspectives: (i) direct forecasting the change of ratio of imports oil to total oil consumption in India, (ii) indirect forecasting, i.e., the difference between the forecasted oil consumption and production was divided by the forecasted oil production. The proposed NMGM-ARIMA and NMGM-BP were used to fit the India's dependence on foreign oil for 1995–2017 and forecast the data for 2018–2030. The mean relative error of the proposed forecasting models was around 1.5%, which could produce a convincing forecasting results. Our forecasting results show that India's dependence on foreign oil will reach 90% around 2025, which poses serious challenge to Indian oil security and the global oil market.

We trace the transmission channels of oil and finance to determine the extent of the energy-led and finance-led growth hypotheses in China from 1965 to 2016. We failed to find evidence that...

There are background issues has generated this study, which one from the global crude oil price get reduced to around 70% in the second semester of 2014. Several observations were associated with an imbalance between the pattern of supply and demand for crude oil. This study is purposed at examining the effect of the variable crude oil production from the Gulf Country and the USA, furthermore is the variable consumption of crude oil on changes in the price of WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate). The secondary data has obtained by U.S. agencies. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The results processed by multiple linear regression methods in the period of observation Q3 2001 - Q4 2018, the results describe that the variables of crude oil production from Saudi countries (Persian Gulf Country) give a significant negative result (β = -4.993; significant level 0.028), and for USA Oil production variable gives a significant positive result (β = 0.177; significant level 0,000) whereas OECD country consumption shows a positive result that is not significant for changes in crude oil prices (β = 1,926; significant level 0.058)&nbsp

China’s domestic oil production has lagged the growth in domestic oil consumption since the beginning of the 21st century, leading to a growing reliance on imports. In response, the Chinese governm...

Coal-to-liquid (CTL) technology has attracted attention in China as an alternative way to alleviate oil shortages. However, due to low profits and environmental problems, Chinese CTL policy is cautious and unstable, rendering the future development of CTL technology uncertain. Considering security, economic and environmental constraints, this study uses system dynamics models to predict the long-term development of the CTL industry in China. The results show that CTL production will steadily increase over the next few years, and a greater increase will occur after 2021. If the government will not provide support policies for CTL industry, we forecast CTL production will be 29.3 million tons by 2030. Once government actively supports CTL, its production is projected to reach 51.8 million tons, which is 45 times greater than that in 2015. When environmental issues are also considered, the production is expected to 47.3 million tons. The sensitivity analysis shows that under different refined oil prices, CTL production ranges from 29.3 to 56.3 million tons. At present, China's CTL only accounts for 0.2% of its oil consumption, and the EROI value of CTL is approximately 0.9:1. The low EROI implies little importance for CTL from a net energy perspective. Based on these research findings, this research offers some relevant policy suggestions.

This paper tries to ensure the relationship between gross capital formation (GCF) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the case of Pakistan for the period 1980–2016 by employing Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model under the expansion of Environmental Kuznets hypothesis (EKC) while controlling for coal and oil consumption variables as a potential factors of CO2 emissions. Our main objective is to check whether or not the effect of changes in GCF on CO2 emissions is asymmetric or symmetric for Pakistan that is among one of the main contributors to CO2 emissions in Asia, as the emissions were grown by 15.6 million tonnes or 8.5% increase in percentage terms in 2016. Our result confirms the existence of an asymmetric effect of GCF shocks on CO2 emissions both in the short and long-terms. Moreover, our empirical finding also suggests that coal and oil consumptions have a significant contribution to CO2 emissions both in the short and long-terms. Further, our results also significantly support the existence of the EKC hypothesis both in the long and short-terms. That confirms the inverted U-shaped connection among per capita growth and CO2 emissions in Pakistan. In the last, our study suggests that the implementation and use of clean energies and technologies are vital for controlling pollution in Pakistan.

Economic growth, urbanization, and financial market development (FMD) may increase energy demand in any economy. Non-renewable sources of energy consumption, i.e., oil consumption and natural gas consumption (NGC), could have environmental consequences. We examine the effects of economic growth, urbanization, and FMD on the oil consumption and NGC in Middle East countries using the period 1975–2019. In the panel results, we found a positive effect of income and a negative effect of income-squared on oil and natural gas consumption. Hence, we corroborate the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in oil and natural gas consumption models of the Middle East region. Urbanization has a positive effect on oil and natural gas consumption. FMD has a positive effect on oil consumption and has a negative effect on NGC. From the long-run, country-specific results, we validate the existence of the EKC hypothesis in the oil consumption models of Iran and Iraq. The EKC is also found in the natural gas consumption models of Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE. From the short-run results, the EKC hypothesis is validated in the oil consumption models of Iran, Iraq, and Israel. The EKC is also corroborated in the NGC models of Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE. In the long run, urbanization has a positive effect on oil consumption in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Further, urbanization has a positive effect on the NGC in Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Conversely, urbanization has a negative effect on oil consumption in Israel. In the short run, urbanization has a positive effect on oil consumption in Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, and Qatar. Moreover, urbanization has a positive effect on the NGC in Iraq. On the other hand, urbanization has a negative effect on oil consumption in Saudi Arabia and Iran. In the long run, FMD has a positive effect on oil consumption in Saudi Arabia and Israel. In the short run, FMD has a positive effect on oil consumption in Israel, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, FMD has a negative effect on oil consumption in the UAE. Moreover, a positive effect of FMD on NGC is found in the UAE. However, FMD has a negative effect on the NGC in Israel.

The article focuses on the energy industry report in South Korea as of March 2013. It states that the country has no important domestic hydrocarbon resources and is hence dependent on imports. It tells that the oil consumption is expected to gain by an average of 1.7 percent a year in 2013-2020. Moreover, gas will play an increasingly big role in electricity generation as the share of oil-fired power generation in total power output remains to fall in the period to 2020.

The article presents an outlook for the energy market of Latin America. It states that Latin America will be the fastest-growing region for oil production growth wherein majority of the growth is said to come from Brazil and Venezuela. It adds that regional oil demand is expected to rise from 8.413 million barrels/day (b/d) in 2010 to 9.2 million b/d in 2016.

The article provides an overview on the performance of the energy industry in Kazakhstan. It reports on the forecast of energy consumption, oil and natural gas consumption, oil and natural gas supply, electricity consumption and supply, coal consumption and supply, nuclear consumption and supply, and alternatives consumption and supply. Also noted is the market demand of oil and gas, as well as the agreement made by the authorities regarding energy policy.

The article provides an overview on the performance of automotive industry in Spain. It reports on the five-year forecast of new passenger car registration, income and demographics, passenger car registrations, commercial vehicle registrations, and oil price and petrol consumption. Also noted is the international comparison of passenger cars, along with highlights on market share, market segmentation, and pricing.

The article provides an overview on the performance of automotive industry in Slovakia. It reports on the five-year forecast of new passenger car registration, income and demographics, passenger car registrations, commercial vehicle registrations, and oil price and petrol consumption. Also noted is the international comparison of passenger cars, along with highlights on market share, market segmentation, and pricing.

The article provides an overview of the performance of automotive industry in France. It reports on the five-year forecast of new passenger car registration, income and demographics, passenger car registrations, commercial vehicle registrations, and oil price and petrol consumption. Also noted is the international comparison of passenger cars, along with highlights on market share, market segmentation, and pricing.

The article provides an overview of the performance of the automotive industry in Denmark. It reports on the five-year forecast of new passenger car registration, income and demographics, passenger car registrations, commercial vehicle registrations, and oil price and petrol consumption. Also noted is the international comparison of passenger cars, along with highlights on market share, market segmentation, and pricing.

The article provides an overview on the performance of the energy industry in Slovakia. It reports on the forecast of energy consumption, oil and natural gas consumption, oil and natural gas supply, electricity consumption and supply, coal consumption and supply, nuclear consumption and supply, and alternatives consumption and supply. Also noted is the market demand of oil and gas, as well as the agreement made by the authorities regarding energy policy.

The article presents long-term forecast for the oil and gas industry in Africa in 2011. It mentions that the 2011-2015 oil demand trend is expected to accelerate for the 2015-2020 period, reflecting the underdeveloped nature of various key economies. The oil consumption in the region is expected to rise by 18% following a 14.3% growth in 2011-2015.

The article offers information on the oil and gas industry in Asia Pacific region. It states the rapid growth of oil and gas consumption that expands petrochemicals systems for liquefied natural gas (LNG). It mentions the regional use of oil rise 30.22 million (mn) barrels per day (b/d) and oil production set to decrease 7.88mn b/d by 2015 with the importing average of 18.15mn b/d. Meanwhile, an overview of oil consumption from 2008 to 2015 which includes China, India, and Japan is presented.

The article focuses on the long-term economic forecasts for the oil and gas industry in the Middle East. It says that the oil consumption in the area will likely increase by 15.3% from 2015-2020 with Qatar as the leading contributor. It mentions that Iraq is considered the biggest contributor to the growth of oil supply in the region. It states that the biggest rise in gas consumption for 2010-2020 will be experienced by various states including Iraq, Israel and Qatar.

The article presents the forecast on oil and gas demand and consumption in Great Britain for 2015 to 2020. It mentions the deterioration of the weak demand trend of oil in Great Britain and the decrease of 1.3% in the oil consumption. It states that the decline in European oil production reflects the downturn in Great Britain's oil production trend. It also mentions the moderation on gas demand growth and the production decrease in the developed Europe.

The article offers information on the forecast scenario of the gas and oil reserves in Italy for the third quarter of 2011. It states that since 1999, oil consumption in Italy has declined steadily while it predicts a 1.63 mn barrels a day (b/d) consumption by 2015. It also mentions Eni SpA's statement that oil production at the Val d'Agri oil complex is expected to increase in September 2010. Several tables which show oil and gas and other energy forecasts in Italy are also presented.

The article focuses on the long-term forecast of the oil and gas industry in African region in 2011. It says that there is an expected increase in oil demand between 2015-2020 period reflecting the developing nature of various key economies. It tells that oil consumption in Africa is assumed to augment by 18.8% in 2015-2020 following the 15.6% growth in 2010-2015. Moreover, 9.0% of oil production in Africa in the 2015-2020 period indicates a reduction from the rate of expansion in 2010-2015.

The article presents business forecast for the oil and gas industry in Libya for the second quarter (Q2) of 2011. It states that nearly 80% of the proven oil reserves in Libya which is located in the Sirte Basin, Libya is accountable for 90% of the oil output in the country. It also mentions that oil production is expected to increase by 46.5 billion barrel (bbl) in 2010. Meanwhile, during the forecast period, gas reserves is expected to reach 1,600 billion cubic meter (bcm) from 1,540 bcm.

The article focuses on the price outlook of oil products worldwide. It says that overall consumption of oil during the winter season have benefited from the low temperatures and the positive pricing impact will prove temporary. Hence, in December 2010 the International Energy Agency (IFA) region end-user prices increased by 3.6% in U.S. Dollar terms, with an increase in diesel prices by 2.9%, and gasoline by 3.5%. Moreover, there is an expected 8-10% of risk of summer 2011 gasoline pump prices.

The article focuses on the oil and gas supply and demand in the Asia Pacific region. Oil consumption in the region is forecasted to reach 27.85 mn b/d in 2011 to 30.80 mn b/d in 2015. It says that the estimated oil production in the region in 2010 is 8.82 mn b/d to 9.17 mn b/d in 2013. It states that oil import estimate for the region is 18.46 mn b/d in 2010 which is expected to reach 21.96 mn b/d in 2015. Several tables on the region's oil production and consumption are also presented.

The article focuses on oil and gas forecasts in Argentina. It says that a decrease in Argentine oil production of 10.58% is predicted to occur between 2010 and 2020, with crude volumes peaking at 685,000b/d in 2013. The oil consumption is expected to increase by 14.34% between 2010 and 2020, while gas production is set to rise from an estimated 43.0bcm in 2010 to 46.0bcm in 2012 and 2013 before returning back to 32.1bcm by 2020. It adds that gas reserves will be at 308bcm by 2015.

The article focuses on the forecast of Business Monitor International Ltd. (BMI) regarding the oil and gas industry in Asia Pacific region from 2010-2020. It states the oil demand growth in for the region is expected to slow beyond 2015, however, there will be strong consumption trend in China, India, and Pakistan. It mentions that 1.82% decline in the oil consumption is expected to happen in Japan at the end of the 10-year period while there will be 2.53% growth in Australia.

The article focuses on the performance of energy sector in Germany from 2009 to 2020. It says that the country's oil consumption in 2009 reaches to an estimated 320.4 million tonnes and is expected to reduce due to augmented efficiency to over 300 million toe by 2020. It tells that Germany is a large importer of energy products, wherein its imports accounted for 71.5% of energy consumption in 2010. Moreover, its 2009 domestic gas production totaled for only 13% of final domestic gas consumption.

The article presents the regional market overview of the oil and gas industries in West and North Africa for the first quarter of 2011. It mentions that gas was an important export product in the region mostly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), in which Nigeria, Libya and Algeria were renegotiating terms to retain a share of its revenues. Furthermore, a table which shows the rate of oil consumption in several African states in 2008-2015 is presented.

The article presents the long-term forecasts of oil and gas industry in the Middle East from 2010 to 2019 by Business Monitor International Ltd. (BMI). It states that the region's oil consumption will increase by 15.7% in the given forecast period. BMI adds that an increase of 15.9% in the region's oil production is expected during the forecast period. Several charts depicting the consumption, production and refining capacity of the country's oil and gas industry are also provided.

The article presents an outlook for the global oil supply, demand and price for 2010 by Business Monitor International Ltd. (BMI). BMI notes that the increasing investments in oil exploration, new production and development have resulted to higher crude prices. BMI forecasts that the global oil consumption will increase to 2.06% in 2010. Charts which depict information on the global oil consumption and production are also provided.