1. Can the president really affect economic growth? Presidential effort and the political business cycle
- Author
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Rohlfs, Chris, Sullivan, Ryan, and McNab, Robert
- Subjects
United States. Senate -- Political activity ,Economic growth -- Economic aspects -- Political aspects ,Presidents -- Elections ,Business cycles -- Economic aspects -- Political aspects ,Company growth ,Business, general ,Economics - Abstract
Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first-term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second-term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high-quality presidents--who probably have the highest return to effort--and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24), I. INTRODUCTION Presidential election is often seen as a referendum on the performance of the economy. Ronald Reagan won the presidency in 1980 with a campaign that asked the question, [...]
- Published
- 2015
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