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Med bakgrund till det ökade intresset för aktier och dagens ekonomiska läge är det högst aktuellt att undersöka relationen mellan makroekonomiska svängningar och aktiepriserna på den svenska börsen. Det finns flera teorier som försöker förklara hur aktiepriser förändras, en allmän slutsats är att externa faktorer påverkar priset genom oförväntade händelser. Chen, Roll och Ross konstruerade en tidsseriemodell för att studera hur oförväntade makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar aktieavkastningen på New York-börsen. Deras slutsatser landade i att oförväntade förändringar i samtliga variabler har en signifikant relation till aktieprisavkastningen. Med detta i åtanke är syftet med uppsatsen att undersöka om avkastningen på olika branscher på den svenska börsen påverkas av oförväntade månatliga förändringar i inflation (KPI), konjunkturläget (BNP), avkastningskurvan, riskpremien samt växelkursen under tidsperioden 2000-2023. Det genomförs även en jämförande analys mellan de europeiska länderna Sverige, Tyskland, Danmark och Finland. De branschindex som studeras är finans, industri, teknologi, sjukvård och detaljhandel för respektive land. Genom en multipel regressionsmodell har få signifikanta samband påvisats, däremot finner vi ett mönster i negativa respektive positiva relationer mellan oförväntade makroekonomiska händelser och aktieavkastningen för samtliga länder. Sammanfattningsvis finner vi inga tydliga skillnader i vilka branscher som påverkas av respektive riskfaktor, däremot finns en skillnad i antal signifikanta värden mellan länderna. Nationella makroekonomiska händelser påvisar flest signifikanta samband till tyska branschindex, följt av danska och finska. Minst signifikanta samband påvisas för de svenska branschindexen. En förklaring bakom resultatet kan vara att ländernas aktiemarknader är mer eller mindre effektiva och investerare på respektive marknad är olika mottagliga till ny information. Avslutningsvis ser vi det vara rimligt att både branscher och länder påverkas av riskfaktorerna i olika stor utsträckning. Att bygga en aktieportfölj med tillgångar från både olika branscher och länder är därmed betydelsefullt för att sprida sina risker. Considering the increased interest in the stock market and the current economic situation, it is highly relevant to examine the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and share prices on the Swedish stock exchange. There are several theories that try to explain how stock prices change, a general conclusion is that external factors affect the price through unexpected events. Chen, Roll, and Ross constructed a time series model in order to study how unexpected macroeconomic factors affect stock returns on the New York Stock Exchange. Their conclusions resulted in that unexpected changes in all variables have a significant relationship to share price returns. With this in mind, the purpose of the essay is to investigate whether the return on various sector indexes on the Swedish stock exchange is affected by unexpected monthly changes in inflation (CPI), economic state (GNP), the term structure, the risk premium and the exchange rate during the time period 2000-2023. A comparative analysis is also carried out between the European countries Sweden, Germany, Denmark and Finland. The examined sector indexes are finance, industry, technology, healthcare and retail for each country. Through a multiple regression model, the result shows that few macroeconomic variables are significant in explaining stock returns. However, we find a pattern in negative as well as positive relationships between unexpected risk factors and stock returns for all countries. We find no significant differences in which sectors are affected by each risk factor but there is a difference in the number of significant values ​​between the countries. National macroeconomic events show the most significant relations to German sector indexes, followed by Danish and Finnish. Least significant relationships are found for the Swedish sector indexes. An explanation behind the result could be that the countries stock markets are more or less efficient and investors in each market are differently receptive to new information. Our conclusion is that we see it as reasonable that both sectors and countries are affected by the risk factors to varying degrees. Building a stock portfolio with assets from both different sectors and countries is therefore important for spreading your risks.

In 1999 the European Council celebrated in Helsinki, on a proposal by the Commission, made Türkiye a candidate country for EU membership. In order to make further progress in the process, a number of reforms, both political and economic, had to be implemented. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to study the evolution of one of the main macroeconomic indicators: unemployment. Secondly, through the estimation of dynamic econometric models, to analyse the possible differences in the evolution of unemployment in Türkiye and in the EU27, depending on variables such as per capita income, population, inflation, investment or public debt. And also, what has been the Keywords: Unemployment rate; Great Recession, Covid-19; macroeconomic variables; labour market policies.

RESUMEN El objetivo de este artículo consiste en identificar los factores del contexto macroeconômico que coadyuvan al cierre de empresas en Perú. Para lograr este objetivo, se efectuaron regresiones estadísticas utilizando el método de los mínimos cuadrados ordinarios, con datos de panel, correspondientes a veinticuatro departamentos. Los resultados indican que la mortalidad de las empresas tiende a aumentar en la medida en que disminuye la tasa de crecimiento del producto interno bruto, o en tanto que tiendan a incrementarse la tasa de inflación, el grado de apertura al comercio exterior, el crédito financiero y la carga tributaria. JEL: D21, L21, L26, M20. ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to identify the macroeconomic factors that contribute to the closure of companies in Peru. To achieve this objective, statistical regressions were carried out by applying the ordinary least squares method to panel data corresponding to all 24 departments. The results indicate that business mortality tends to increase inversely to the growth rate of the gross domestic product, and directly to the rate of inflation, the degree of openness to foreign trade, financial credit, and the tax burden. JEL: D21, L21, L26, M20. RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é identificar os fatores do contexto macroeconômico que contribuem para o fechamento de empresas no Peru. Para atingir esse objetivo, foram realizadas regressões estatísticas usando o método dos mínimos quadrados ordinários, com dados em painel, correspondentes a vinte e quatro departamentos. Os resultados indicam que a mortalidade das empresas tende a aumentar à medida que diminui a taxa de crescimento do produto interno bruto, ou seja, à medida que aumenta a taxa de inflação, o grau de abertura ao comércio exterior, o crédito financeiro e a carga tributária. JEL: D21, L21, L26, M20.

Purpose This study aims to investigate whether changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate and housing supply have permanent effects on housing inflation in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, data from 2010M01 to 2020M06 and changes in consumer interest rate, exchange rate, housing supply and housing inflation were used. Relationships between variables are analyzed first by the Granger causality tests and then the conditional frequency domain causality tests. The conditional frequency domain causality test specifically reveals the permanent causality between variables, whether there is a permanent effect. Findings According to the Granger causality test results, there are causality relationships from changes in the consumer interest rate and exchange rate to housing inflation. However, there is no causality relationship between housing supply and housing inflation. According to the conditional frequency domain causality test results, there is causality for the permanent and mid-term from changes in the consumer interest rate to housing inflation and causality for the mid-term and temporary from changes in the exchange rate to housing inflation. Additionally, it was found that there are causality relationships between changes in the consumer interest rate and changes in the exchange rate. Research limitations/implications The first limit of the study is that only 2010M01-2020M06 months can be considered. Because the date that variables started common is 2010M01. Besides, there is a limit in the study in variables used. Many variables, both micro and macro, can be added to affect housing inflation. Originality/value Housing inflation is a remarkable issue in Turkey. There is an increase in the number of studies on the subject in recent years. For this reason, the study is trying to contribute by approaching the subject from a different angle. The most important contribution of the study is that it has not been investigated whether the determinants of housing inflation have permanent or temporary effects, which were not done in previous studies. In addition, the method used reveals how many months the effects of changes in exchange rates, consumer interest rates and housing supply on housing inflation last. Based on the findings obtained from the methods, important economic and political implications have been put forward in depth.

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic, financial variables and the stock market in Saudi Stock Exchange. For this purpose, macroeconomic, financial variables, and Saudi stock index were analyzed for the period of 2000 to 2018. The variables were: Imports, Exports, Listed domestic companies, Foreign direct investment, GDP, Broad money, Inflation rate, and Tadawul stock index (TASI). Correlation was used to capture the relationship. The study showed strong relationships between IMP-GDP, IMP-EXP, IMP-LD, IMP-BM, GDP-EXP, GDP-LD, GDP-BM, and LD-BM while TASI has weak relationship with the financial and economic variables.

This study aims to analyze the response of demand for money to shocks in macroeconomic variables such as income, inflation and interest rates in Indonesia. The study used time-series data from 2008: Q1 - 2019; Q4 with SVAR approach. Based on the result there was a positive response from money demand to income shocks but a negative response to inflation and interest rate shocks. Income variable is volatile and contributes the most to money demand compared to inflation and interest rates.

This research examines the cointegration of macroeconomic variables and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index toward IHSG. The Sampling data used is non probability sampling techniques by using historical monthly data from January 2015 to December 2019. The method used in this study are Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test for stationarity test, Johansen Test for Cointegration, and Error Correction Model for short-term relationships with eviews 10. The findings showed that DJIA Index not cointegrated with IHSG because investors are more responsive to global market and domestic sentiment. Exchange rates not cointegrated with the IHSG because exchange rate and IHSG movements do not always had a negative relationship. Interest rates are not cointegrated with IHSG because most of the sectors in the IDX affected by external sentiment than interest rates. Meanwhile, inflation have a cointegration relationship but does not have a short-term relationship with IHSG because inflation is generally known as a continuous increase in the price of goods as a whole. Crude oil have a cointegration relationship but does not have a short-term relationship with IHDG, which implies that an increase or decrease in crude oil in the short term can not affect IHSG.

This study examined the influence of remittances and macro-economic variables on poverty in ASEAN-4 countries (i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) over the 1991 to 2019 period using a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study documented that remittance and unemployment have a significant effect on poverty reduction in the long run. Meanwhile, economic growth and the Gini coefficient were found to have an insignificant influence on poverty reduction. The speed of adjustment due to shocks in the short term is restored within eight months into the long-run equilibrium. Our results emphasize that poverty in ASEAN-4 must be addressed with pragmatic macroeconomic policies, especially policies that affect the poor's income. Besides, with the real contribution of remittances, the strengthening of international cooperation related to migrant workers is also essential to alleviate poverty.JEL Classification: F22, F24, I32, J01, O15How to Cite:Fahrizal, T., Aliasuddin., & Majid, M. S. A. (2021). Do Remittances Matter for Poverty Reduction in ASEAN?. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 13-30. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.19154.

This study explores the dynamic relation between economic growth and stock market depth in the presence of three more macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate, inflation and interest rate of Bangladesh. We use Johansen and Juselius (1990) test of co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to detect the possible short-run and long-run causal relation among the selected economic forces. The results of the study evidence that the lagged error-correct term of GDP (i.e., the proxy of economic growth) is found statistically significant in all three models. This manifest that GDP tends to converge to its long-run equilibrium path in response to changes in its regressors. But we find a complex network of causal linkage between the variables in the short-run. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policymakers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Bangladesh economy and the Bangladesh stock market.

This study aims to analyze the correlation between control corruption and political stability, macro variables on economic growth in Asia. Study population consist of 47 countries, employing secondary data from Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Development Indicators, and United Nations Development Programme. The data were analyzed using dynamic panel regression (GMM) during 2002-2018 period with Stata 14 software. The result of the analysis shows control corruption and political stability positively affect economic growth. Macroeconomic variables consist of foreign direct investment and human capital positively affects economic growth. While government size has no significant effect on economic growth. The findings of this study confirms that economic growth can be increased through reducing levels of corruption, strong political stability, increase capital inflow, optimally government consumption especially increasing portion of the education budget and creating jobs widely.

RESUMEN Este artículo analizó el alto grado de integración de la industria automotriz de México con la economía estadounidense, ya que alrededor del 73,0 % del total de las exportaciones de vehículos manufacturados se dirigen a este país. El objetivo consistió en analizar la influencia de algunas variables macroeconómicas sobre la producción de automóviles ligeros en México y su exportación a los Estados Unidos, para lo cual se formuló un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas. Se concluyó que tanto la producción de automóviles como las exportaciones resultaron ser altamente significativas, lo que muestra la alta interrelación entre estas variables. JEL: B23; C01; C3; F15; F40. ABSTRACT The present investigation analysed the high degree of integration of the automotive industry of Mexico with the American economy, given that about 73,0 % of the total exports of manufactured vehicles are directed to this country. The objective was to analyse the influence of some macroeconomic variables on the production of light cars in Mexico and their exportation to the United States, for which a model of simultaneous equations was formulated. It was concluded that both automobile production and exports were highly significant, which shows the high interrelation between these variables. JEL: B23; C01; C3; F15; F40. RESUMO Este artigo analisou o alto grau de integração da indústria de automóveis do México com a economia estadunidense, já que ao redor de 73,0% do total das exportações de veículos manufaturados se dirigem a este país. O objetivo consistiu em analisar a influência de algumas variáveis macroeconômicas sobre a produção de automóveis leves no México e sua exportação aos Estados Unidos, para isso, formulou-se um modelo de equações simultâneas. Concluiu-se que tanto a produção de automóveis como as exportações resultaram altamente significativas, o que deixa ver a alta inter-relação entre estas variáveis. JEL: B23; C01; C3; F15; F40.

This study explores relationships between annual advertising expenditure and major macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Advertising is sometimes viewed as a concern of business units only not worth being researched at macroeconomic level. This nature has been mostly studied on advertising industries in the advanced economies. Due to a lack of high frequency time series data on advertising expenditure in the developing economies, this work has been limited to an exploratory study using the multiple regression and correlation analysis. The study covers the period of 2001 to 2018. Its findings show that advertising has positive relationship with GDP and savings. This study provides further evidence on the cyclical nature of advertising that moves with the state of the economy. During the economic slowdown in the period of 2015 to 2017, Nigeria advertising expenditure continued to fall. In 2013, the period with the highest advertising revenue in the study, the ratio of advertising expenditure as percentage of GDP accounted for 0.061%, which was below 0.2%, a very negligible number indicating more scope for growth in the market.

We investigate whether crude oil price volatility is predictable by conditioning on macroeconomic variables. We consider a large number of predictors, take into account the possibility that relative predictive performance varies over the out-of-sample period, and shed light on the economic drivers of crude oil price volatility. Results using monthly data from 1983:M1 to 2018:M12 document that variables related to crude oil production, economic uncertainty and variables that either describe the current stance or provide information about the future state of the economy forecast crude oil price volatility at the population level 1 month ahead. On the other hand, evidence of finite-sample predictability is very weak. A detailed examination of our out-of-sample results using the fluctuation test suggests that this is because relative predictive performance changes drastically over the out-of-sample period. The predictive power associated with the more successful macroeconomic variables concentrates around the Great Recession until 2015. They also generate the strongest signal of a decrease in the price of crude oil towards the end of 2008.

Recently, modeling and forecasting of high-frequency data (such as daily price) volatility using GARCH-MIDAS attract the attention of many researchers. Thus, the objective of this study is to model the average daily coffee price volatility from 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2019. The GARCH-MIDAS component model decomposes the conditional variance into short run component which follows a mean-reverting unit GARCH process and long-run component which consider different frequency macroeconomic indicators via mixed interval data sampling (MIDAS) specification. Unit root test results show the return series are stationary at level, while macroeconomic variables are stationary at first difference except interest rate, which is stationary at level. From the result of estimated model, all selected indicators are crucial in explaining price volatility. . Moreover, the estimated GARCH-MIDAS model with money supply as a main driver is used for out-sample forecast. Based on, DM test statistic multiplicative GARCH-MIDAS model provides an explanation for stylized facts that cannot be captured by standard GARCH model.

Happiness is a well-researched and complex field of science. The complexity creates results that are diverse from study to study. Macro-economic variables such as income inequality, inflation and unemployment are frequently occurring. Because studies in happiness are diverse in their conclusions, we hypothesise that time-series regressions on separate western European countries will create different results. In order to find out if same macroeconomic variables affect nations average happiness differently. We created time-series regressions with robust standard errors between 1983-2020 for Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, and France separately. Using initially mentioned variables in order to determine their effects on average happiness, taken from Veenhoven´s World Database of Happiness, our results were as diverse as previous research. The only variable that displayed consensus in its effect was inflation. Income inequality (GINI) and unemployment rate depicts all possible hypothesis, negative, positive, and no correlation depending on nation. This indicates that every country might react differently and perhaps should not be bundled together and generalized. Future research needs to be conducted in similar manner as the time-series data increases, and to further analyze if happiness is a practical and nation-comparable measure of welfare.

La economía argentina se caracteriza por sucesivos periodos de inestabilidad marcada en las principales variables macroeconómicas lo que suscita la generación de un contexto volátil donde la incertidumbre enmarca cualquier toma de decisión económica y financiera. Este contexto es particularmente nocivo para los negocios de las empresas pequeñas y medianas, quienes encuentran serios inconvenientes para lograr rentabilidad económica del negocio, generando a posteriori estrangulamientos en el giro financiero, todo lo cual puede afectar la capacidad de la PYME para continuar operativa durante estos ciclos económicos. Este trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo plantear el abordaje de determinadas herramientas que pueden permitir, en la actualidad morigerar el impacto sobre la rentabilidad financiera del negocio y tener la posibilidad de transitar el ciclo económico adverso con éxito Argentine economy is characterized by successive periods of marked inestability in its key macroeconomic variables, which implies a volatile context where uncertainty frames any economic and financial decision-making. This context is particularly harmful to small and medium-sized companies, who find serious inconveniences to achieve economic profitability of their business, subsequently generating bottlenecks in financial parameters, all of which may affect its ability of remain operative during these cycles. The aim of this research paper is approaching certain tools that should allow to moderate the impact on business´ financial profitability and reach the possibility of successfully going through adverse economic cycle. Fil: Padován, Alex A. Universidad Abierta Interamericana. Rosario; Argentina.

Fiscal policy influences economic conditions through public spending and taxes, generating positive or negative impulses, both on short and long term. The present research focuses on analysing the effects of the discretionary changes in the fiscal policy in seven post-communist countries of the European Union during the period 2000–2018. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) has been applied in order to obtain the convergence rates to equilibrium with a clear analysis of the periods needed to achieve the long-run fiscal sustainability. Also, the error correction vector model (VECM), which is based on the autoregressive vector (VAR) model, has been used in the second part of the analysis focusing on the Cholesky factorization of innovations. Impulse-response functions aiming to estimate the response of government expenditures to the shock produced by three macroeconomic variables have been identified.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the specific characteristics of the company and the macroeconomic variables on the capital structure of the companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2007 and 2014 using the panel data approach. To measure specific characteristics of a company, the profitability ratio, payable dividends ratio and the stock price performance ratio were applied; also, variables such as GDP growth rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and the ratio of the amount of bank credits as macroeconomic variables have been employed. The results of this research showed that in the whole industry, the variables of profitability ratio, the payable dividends ratio and the ration of the amount of bank credits have a negative and significant effect, and GDP growth rate has a positive and significant effect on capital structure. Similarly, the results show that the effects of specific corporate variables differ from macroeconomic variables on capital structure according to the type of industry.

This study aims to investigate the effect of macroeconomic factors on Palestine and Amman Stock Exchange returns. Also, the study handles the political events in the area and their impact on Palestine and Amman stock markets returns. This study applied the macro-econometric model based on Arbitrage Pricing Theory. In addition, the most important political events are selected, and their effect was tested using the event study methodology. The results show that the consumer price index, gross domestic product, and exchange rate have a significant impact on stock index returns, but industrial production index and balance of trade have no significant effect. In addition, the results reveal that the political events have a significant effect on Palestine and Amman stock markets returns. For instance, at Palestine Stock Exchange, seven out of eleven events had a significant impact on the Palestinian general index returns. Regarding the Amman Stock Exchange, there were nine out of eleven events, which had a significant impact on the Jordanian general index returns. The main results show that the macroeconomic factors and political events have a significant impact on the Palestine and Amman stock market returns. Both Palestine and Amman Stock Markets are inefficient and the markets do not absorb uncertain information and noisy events.

Research purpose. Stocks as well as other securities are a crucial part of the financial market that helps to redistribute financial resources amongst market participants, which in a modern economy include not only professional stock players but also many common individuals seeking to increase their capital. Previous studies found a strong relationship between the macroeconomic variables and stock returns but often the explanatory power of those models seems to be limited in the applicable region. The aim of this article is to establish whether each region’s stock indices have to be predicted based on a separate set of variables. Design / Methodology / Approach. The article uses correlation–regression analysis method to confirm the initial hypothesis regarding regional limitations of such prediction models. Findings. The same set of independent variables cannot be directly applied to different regions because although the chosen Y2B model did provide an accurate relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock indices in the United Kingdom, it failed to provide accurate (usable) results in other regions (Estonia, European Union, France, Germany, Latvia and Lithuania), Originality / Value / Practical implications. The results are important in order to define the way that the smaller and less-researched economies should be examined because detailed researches of power economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom, China or Germany often cannot be directly applied outside the initial research region. Therefore, the need of separate studies for smaller regions such as Baltic States is confirmed.

We use an exhaustive list of Indonesia’s macroeconomic variables in a comparative analysis to determine which predictor variables are most important in forecasting Indonesia’s inflation rate. We use monthly time-series data for 30 macroeconomic variables. Using both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability evaluations, we report consistent evidence of inflation rate predictability using 11 out of 30 macroeconomic variables.

This paper aims to explore which macroeconomic factors affect the volatility of the automakers stock prices by employing a multifactor model. The study uses quarterly panel data of 39 automakers quoted on the stock exchanges in the 11 countries. It studies the effects of 19 macroeconomic variables from January 2000 to December 2017, and proposes the mixed-effect model constructed based on employing genetic algorithm and AIC criterion, and compares its explanatory power with the existing multifactor model (El Khoury, 2015). This paper suggests that the proposed model can shed more light on explaining the variability of stock prices of the quoted automakers. The findings show there are positive linkages between automaker's stock return volatility and explanatory variables such as stock market development, GDP and unemployment. Conversely, an inverse linkage between the dependent variable and money supply and IPI was found. The study demonstrates that selected macroeconomic factors can also be used as predictors., Grant Agency of the Czech RepublicGrant Agency of the Czech Republic [1625536S]

This study analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic variables that influence inflation. Through our research, we will analyze the influence of GDP growth, remittances, level of exports, level of imports, and foreign direct investments on the inflation rate for the Western Balkan. The research has applied panel data using dynamic approaches such as fixed effects, and Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimation to determine relationships between variables and their impact on inflation. The research used annual series data from 2003 to 2019 provided by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Likewise, to test a stationary of data was applied three estimations for the unit root test and Johansen cointegration. The research results reveal that in the short run, all variables influence the inflation rate, except for foreign direct investment, which has insignificant influence. Moreover, the analyses through the Arellano–Bover/Blundell—Bond estimation reveal that GDP growth, imports, and foreign direct investments have a positive influence on the inflation rate, while, working remittances and exports have a negative influence on the inflation rate. These conclusions provide sufficient information for future debates and examination on macroeconomic variables that potentially affect inflation.

PurposeFama–French model (FFM) has been successful in helping to predict the financial markets, but investors have been interested in creating more sophisticated models to better predict the performance of the stock market. The objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model to better predict the performance of the Mexican Stock Market.Design/methodology/approachThe study divides the Mexican Stock Market into six different portfolios. The criteria to build those portfolios are the same one used in Fama–French (1992). The study comprises 78 stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Market that are analyzed monthly during 1997–2018. The study analyzes the period before and after the 2008–2009 financial crisis to identify whether there are important changes. The estimation applies the traditional and an extended version of the FFM that include macroeconomic variables such as country risk, economic activity, inflation rate, and exchange rate and some financial variables recommended in the literature.FindingsResults indicate that classic FFM variables are statistically significant in most cases, but relevant macroeconomic variables such as the interest rate, exchange rate and country risk stand out for being weakly relevant in most of the portfolios. However, it is noticed that some of these macroeconomic variables became relevant for different portfolios only after the 2008–2009 crisis, especially in portfolios which include small market capitalization firms.Research limitations/implicationsThe study includes the stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Market. One limitation is the small number of stocks available, which reduces the possibility of creating well diversified portfolios. This study includes 78 stocks. The stocks removed from the sample are from firms that were not listed during six consecutive months or whose market capitalization did not change in the same period. Outlier data were removed from the sample to capture in better way the general performance of the stock market.Practical implicationsThe objective of the extended version is to create a more robust econometric model than the traditional model. It is expected that such estimations can be helpful to investors to make better decisions when they try to predict performance in the stock market.Social implicationsAn extended version of the FFM can be helpful to investors to make better decisions when they try to predict performance in the stock market.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge there are no more studies in the literature of the Mexican financial market that apply the same methodology.

The research investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables on the volatility of the commodity futures market in India (together with oil futures, agricultural commodity futures and metal futures). The monetary policies, financial market information and economic environments are determined by the macroeconomic variables. The low-frequency macroeconomic variables and daily price volatility is studied in the research employed by the GARCH-MIDAS model. This model simplifies the series of volatility into long- and short-run modules, which allow for the testing of the macroeconomic variables can control the long-run variance or not. The current study reveals the effect on long-run volatility factor in the commodity market, and the majority of verified data have shown that low-frequency variables have a positive impact in the long-run variance of the commodity futures market. The outcome of the study suggested that the national and international economic variables perform a substantial part in assessing the price volatility of the commodity futures market in India.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables and firm-specific factors on corporate profitability in Singapore and Hong Kong before, during and after the global financial crisis. This paper uses the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments to examine the impact of macroeconomic and firm-specific factors on corporate profitability. The model includes firm-specific factors (firm size, leverage, liquidity, sales growth and previous year’s profitability) and macroeconomic factors (real GDP growth and inflation rate). Corporate profitability is represented by ROA, ROE and Tobin’s Q. Results from the pooled sample showed that past profitability, firm size and leverage have a strong relationship with firm performance. Our pooled sample results also showed that Hong Kong firms are more affected by macroeconomic factors during the global financial crisis than Singapore firms. Our study provides insights into the relationship between firm-specific factors, macroeconomic factors and firm performance under three different economic periods in two developed economies in the Asia-Pacific.

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of a few selected macroeconomic variables on the Swedish stock market index OMXS30. The study uses time series monthly data during the period 2000-2019. To investigate these relationships, the time series are transformed into stationary processes. Then, we construct a Vector autoregressive model (VAR) and conduct Granger causality tests. The results indicated a negative relationship between inflation and the return on stocks, interest rate and the return on stocks, as well as positive relationship between money supply and the return on stocks. The VAR-model and the Granger causality test failed to show any statistically significant relationship between exchange rate and stock prices. The same Granger Causality tests suggests a bidirectional relationship between interest rate and the return of OMXS30, as well as unidirectional relationship between inflation and the stock prices, where inflation Granger causes the return of OMXS30.

Dünya ekonomisi son yıllarda giderek gelişme kaydetmiştir. Birçok ülke ekonomisi oluşan bu gelişmeyi devamlı hale getirerek büyümeye devam etmektedir. Devam edemeyen ülkeler birçok zorluklarla karşılaşmaktadır. Bu zorlukların en önemli olanı orta gelir tuzağı olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Bu tuzak, ülkelerin gelişme aşamasında aynı gelir düzeyinden uzun süre çıkamaması durumudur. Bu tuzağın aşılmasında her ülke farklı çözüm yolu bularak tuzağa yakalanmama veya çıkmanın peşindedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, bazı orta gelirli ülkelerin gelişme göstermesiyle karşımıza çıkan orta gelir tuzağından hangi yollarla çıkmaya çalıştıklarını ve karşılaştıkları zorluklar incelenip analiz edilmektedir. Türkiye ve Güney Kore benzer ekonomik özellikleri barındırırken, Türkiye'nin orta gelir tuzağına yakalanmasına karşın Güney Kore'nin bir üst seviyeye çıkmasındaki nedenler açıklanmıştır. Güney Kore küresel piyasadaki diğer ülkeler ile rekabet gücü elde etmişken, Türkiye orta gelir tuzağından kurtulmak için hangi yolları izlediğine bakılmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda birinci bölümde büyüme ve kalkınmanın kavramsal çerçevesi açıklanmıştır. Orta gelir tuzağının teorik alt yapısına bakılmış ve bu tuzağı açıklayan yaklaşımlara değinilmiştir. İkinci bölümde ise, orta gelir tuzağındaki bazı ülkeler incelenmiş ve literatür taramasına değinilmiştir. Son bölümde ise Türkiye ve Güney Kore belirli göstergeler neticesinde karşılaştırma yapılmaktadır., The world economy has progressively improved in recent years. Many countries ' economies continue to grow by making this development continuous. Countries that cannot continue face many challenges. The most important of these challenges is the middle income trap.This trap means that countries cannot come out at the same level of income for a long time at the stage of development. In overcoming this trap, each country seeks to avoid or exit the trap by finding a different solution. The purpose of this study, some middle-income countries are developing examine the ways in which they are trying to get out of the middle income trap and the challenges they face analyzed. While Turkey and South Korea have similar economic characteristics, Despite Turkey's middle income trap, South Korea's next level reasons for its exit are explained. South Korea competes with other countries in the global market having gained power, what ways does Turkey follow to get rid of the middle income trap references. In this direction, the conceptual framework of growth and development is explained in the first chapter. The theoretical infrastructure of the middle income trap was looked at and approaches explaining this trap were mentioned. In the second section, some countries in the middle income trap were examined and literature review was mentioned. In the final section, Turkey and South Korea specific indicators as a result, comparison is made.

The main objective of this thesis is to find information of how, or if, the selected macroeconomic variables consumer price index, interest rate, exchange rate, industrial production, oil price and money supply have affected the Swedish stock market (OMXafgx) during the time-period 1973-2017. Findings in this research proves that all variables are co-integrated with the Swedish stock market, but only one of the variables selected, industrial production, have a short- and a longrun relationship affecting the Swedish stock market. A negative long run relation is also identified for money supply. Huvudsyftet med denna uppsats är att finna information om hur, eller om, de utvalda makroekonomiska variablerna konsumentpris index, ränta, växelkurs, industriproduktion, oljepris och penningmängd har någon påverkan på den svenska aktiemarknaden (OMXafgx) från 2973-2017. Resultaten från denna undersökning visar att alla variablerna är samintegrerade med den svenska aktiemarknaden. Dock är det endast industriproduktion som har en kort- och långsiktig relation som påverkar den svenska aktiemarknaden. En negativ långsiktig relation identifieras även för penningmängd.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the recent recession and of macroeconomic variables over the indebtedness in Brazilian industry sectors. The gap derives from the preference for investigating the reaction of capital structure according to economic sectors. However, it has to be considered that industry sectors react differently to variations in the economic context, since they have different optimal points of capital structure composition. The relevance of the chosen topic lies in carrying out a sectorial analysis of the effect of recession and of macroeconomic variables on capital structure composition, identifying the most sensitive sectors. It is also relevant in terms of being based on classical financial theories applied to the current context, in order to help predict the proportion of debt given fluctuations in a set of macroeconomic variables. Standing out among the main contributions of this article are the analysis of the level of indebtedness of Brazilian companies given the occurrence of recession and variations in the macroeconomy, identifying sectors that are most exposed to modifying their capital structure due to these factors. Six research hypotheses were formulated and tested using multiple linear regression, with two-stage fixed effects based on panel data collected from 211 companies, classified into six sectors, with data relating to the first quarter of 2010 up to the first quarter of 2018. The results revealed that the recent Brazilian recession was relevant for the capital structure of the sectors studied, with inflation only being significant for the health sector. The level of indebtedness of the basic materials sector was shown to be the most dependent on economic fluctuations and that of telephony and utilities was shown to be the least dependent. In addition, it was verified that the company-specific variables have greater relevance in determining capital structure compared to the macroeconomic ones. Resumo O objetivo do trabalho é analisar a influência da recente recessão e de variáveis macroeconômicas sobre o endividamento nos setores industriais brasileiros. A lacuna se configura pela preferência em investigar a reação da estrutura de capital em função dos setores econômicos. Entretanto, há de se considerar que setores industriais reagem de formas distintas diante de variações do cenário econômico, pois têm diferentes pontos ótimos de composição de estrutura de capital. A relevância do tema escolhido é realizar análise setorial do efeito da recessão e de variáveis macroeconômicas na composição da estrutura de capital, identificando os setores mais sensíveis. Também é relevante no aspecto de se apoiar em teorias financeiras clássicas aplicadas ao contexto atual, de forma a auxiliar na previsão da proporção do endividamento ante a oscilações de um conjunto de variáveis macroeconômicas. Como principais contribuições deste artigo, destacam-se a análise do nível de endividamento das empresas brasileiras ante a ocorrência de recessão e as variações na macroeconomia, identificando setores mais expostos a modificar sua estrutura de capital devido a esses fatores. Formularam-se seis hipóteses de pesquisa, testadas com o uso de regressão linear múltipla, com efeitos fixos em dois estágios a partir de dados em painel coletados de 211 empresas, classificadas em seis setores, com dados referentes ao período do primeiro trimestre de 2010 até o primeiro de 2018. Os resultados revelaram que a recente recessão brasileira foi relevante para a estrutura de capital dos setores pesquisados, sendo que a inflação foi significante apenas para o setor de saúde. O nível de endividamento do setor de materiais básicos mostrou-se o mais dependente das oscilações econômicas e o de telefonia e utilidades, o menos dependente. Adicionalmente, verificou-se que as variáveis específicas das empresas têm maior relevância na determinação da estrutura de capital quando comparadas às macroeconômicas.

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variable shocks on industrial and financial stock returns in the Borsa Istanbul. To this end, we use the generalized forecast error variance decompositions and generalized impulse responses. The results show that inflation, the growth rate of the money supply, and the exchange rate provide significant information for forecasting industrial and financial stock market volatility. The impact of industrial production on stock returns appears to be negligible, both in the short and long horizons. The study extends our understanding of sectoral stock market behavior in a developing country.

Investor sentiment is an important aspect of behavioural finance, which provides explanation of anomalies to the asset&rsquo, s intrinsic values. Sentiments can easily affect individual investors. Historically, Australia is regarded as rich in resources but poor in capital, and this motivates the paper to further study and compare the effects of investor sentiment on performance returns. Aggregate and cross-sectional effects, as well as predictive regression analysis to forecast the relationships, while controlling for the macroeconomic variables, are used by employing Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and trade volume as sentiment proxies. Contrary to some studies with aggregate stock markets, it is discovered that in the short term, investor sentiment poses a positive impact with strong predictive power on the forecast of portfolio returns but not so much in the long run, which supports the classical theories of rational investors. In both Australian and New Zealand markets, the sentiment proxies also cannot predict the returns portfolios with dividends in the long/short portfolio and book-to-market ratio long/short portfolio.

This study aims to investigate whether the Islamic equity style index containseconomic information which is useful for investors and financial practitioners. Thestudy fills the gap in the previous literature by investigating the relationshipbetween Islamic equity style indices and macroeconomic variables. Using aVector Autoregressive (VAR) model with monthly data from June 2006 to May2017, our results show that first, there is unidirectional flow of information fromLarge Growth (LG) to the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI); second, LargeGrowth (LG) Granger-causes the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI); third,Large Value (LV) also Granger-causes KLCI. A robustness check with anAugmented VAR model obtained similar results to the short-run model. Ourresults imply that equity style indices have prior information which is faster thanLEI and KLCI. This knowledge is certainly useful for fund managers whendesigning Shariah-compliant portfolio investments. For policymakers, Islamicequity style indices are useful for predicting the direction of other macroeconomicvariables such as business cycles, and hence help to predict the future directionand turning points in the economy.

Recent research on asset allocation emphasizes the importance of considering non‐traditional asset classes such as commodities and real estate—the former for their diversification properties, and the latter due to its importance in the average investor's portfolio. However, modelling and forecasting asset return co‐movements is challenging because the dependence structure is dynamic, regime‐specific, and non‐elliptical. Moreover, little is known about the economic source of this time‐varying dependence or how to use this information to improve investor portfolios. We use a flexible framework to assess the economic value to investors of incorporating better forecasting information about return co‐movements between equities, bonds, commodities, and real estate. The dependence structure is allowed to be dynamic and non‐elliptical, while the state variables follow Markov‐switching stochastic volatility processes. We find that the predictability of return co‐movements is significantly improved by incorporating macro and non‐macroeconomic variables, in particular inflation uncertainty and bond illiquidity. The economic value added to investors is significant across levels of risk aversion, and the model outperforms traditional multivariate GARCH frameworks.

We use wavelet analysis to study the relationship between the yield curve and macroeconomic indicators in Canada. We rely on the Nelson–Siegel approach to model the zero-coupon yield curve and use the Kalman filter to estimate its time-varying factors: the level, the slope and the curvature. Apart from establishing a bidirectional yield–macro relation, the paper broadens the existing literature by exploring the link between the monetary policy and the yield curve. We reached several conclusions. First, the monetary policy variable, the bank rate, affects mainly short-run interest rates. Arguably, the main driver for economic activity is the long-run interest rate (instead of the short run), suggesting that monetary policy is mostly ineffective. Second, we concluded that concerning the inflation rate, the Bank of Canada is very proactive. Third, regarding the unemployment rate, we found that both the slope and the curvature are leading indicators for the long-run evolution of unemployment. Finally, our results suggest that the industrial production index leads the yield curve factors and not the other way., FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia(POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006683)