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We document the implications of the 2014 revisions to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey and offer guidance on how to handle the irregularities in population and unemployment statistics that resulted from two particular revisions. First, new population projections were adopted to assign survey weights. Second, a narrower definition of unemployment was adopted. We propose methods to adjust the survey weights for the pre-2014 period in order to discern changes in population statistics by age groups and regions without interruption over time and to calculate the unemployment rates according to both broader and narrower definitions since 2004. / Bu çalışmada TÜİK Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketi’ninde 2014 yılında yapılan düzenlemelerden kaynaklanan bazı sonuçları bulguluyor, nüfus ve işsizlik istatistiklerinde yapılan revizyonların özellikle ikisinden kaynaklanan sorunların nasıl ele alınması gerektiği hakkında yol gösteriyoruz. İlk revizyon, anket ağırlıklarının dayandırıldığı yeni nüfus projeksiyonlarının kabul edilmesidir. İkincisi ise, dar tanımlı bir işsizlik tanımına geçilmesidir. Bu çalışmada 2014 öncesindeki anket ağırlıklarını nüfus istatistiklerinde yaş bazında ve bölgesel olarak kopma olmayacak şekilde yeniden ayarlamak ve işsizlik oranlarını geniş ve dar tanımlı olarak 2004 yılından itibaren hesaplamak için yöntemler öneriyoruz., NA

This paper provides an empirical analysis of firms’ delegation decisions by using a matched employer-employee dataset from Britain. In our analysis, we first investigate if firm-provided training is positively related to delegating authority, as predicted by the existing theories. We then consider variables that can potentially increase the value of delegation. In particular, we conjecture that firms become more likely to delegate authority as they face higher uncertainty or as the employees acquire more precise information. To test these hypotheses, we use market conditions to measure uncertainty and correlates of worker productivity to measure the precision of the employee’s information. / Bu çalışma, Britanya’da oluşturulan eşlenmiş işveren-çalışan veri setini kullanarak, firmaların yetkilendirme (delegasyon) kararlarının ampirik bir analizini sunmaktadır. Analizimizde ilk olarak, mevcut teorilerin öngördüğü üzere firma tarafından sağlanan eğitim ile yetkilendirme kararları arasında pozitif bir ilişkili olup olmadığını araştırıyoruz. Daha sonra, yetkilendirmenin değerini potansiyel olarak artırabilecek değişkenleri ele alıyoruz. Özellikle, daha yüksek belirsizlikle karşılaştıklarında veya çalışanların daha kesin bilgiler edinmelerinin mümkün olduğu ortamlarda firmaların yetkilendirme olasılıklarının arttığı hipotezini test ediyoruz. Bu analizde, belirsizliği ölçmek için piyasa koşullarını kullanırken, çalışanın edinebileceği bilgilerinin kesinliğini ölçmek için ise işçi üretkenliğini etkileyen değişkenleri kullanmaktayız., NA

This papers aims to identify and explain the differences in information and communications technologies (ICT) adoption for a sample of 142 developed and developing countries. In addition, we examine the relationships between specific combinations of technologies and the factors explaining them. Although income is a key factor for all country groups, its role is more significant for middle-digitalization countries. Using several multivariate techniques, we detect different patterns of digitalization. The patterns are explained to differing degrees by the type of country, by differences in economic development, and by socio-demographic and institutional variables. Factors such as quality of regulation and infrastructure explain ICT adoption in high-income countries. The ICT combination associated with specific income groups as well as the explanatory variables detected for each of them might be useful to implement the most appropriate policy actions to reduce the digital divide.

The increase in foreign direct investments raises concerns about labor market consequences in many countries. It is feared that multinational firms are inclined to shift jobs abroad and increase job volatility. We use firm-level data to examine if multinationality and foreign ownership affect the wage elasticity of labor demand. Unlike previous studies, we distinguish the effect on different skill groups of employees. We find no general difference in wage elasticity between foreign and domestic firms but the wage elasticity is higher in multinational firms than in national firms, in particular for medium-skilled workers.

This paper presents empirical evidence of the effect of FDI inflows on productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe, using industry-level data. Four conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong convergence effect in productivity, both at the country and at the industry level. Second, FDI inflow plays an important role in accounting for productivity growth. Third, the impact of FDI on productivity critically depends on the absorptive capacity of recipient countries and industries. Fourth, there is important heterogeneity across countries, industries and time with respect to some of the main findings. JEL Classification: C23, F21, O33

This paper proposes a new testing procedure for detecting error cross section dependence after estimating a linear dynamic panel data model with regressors using the generalised method of moments (GMM). The test is valid when the cross-sectional dimension of the panel is large relative to the time series dimension. Importantly, our approach allows one to examine whether any error cross section dependence remains after including time dummies (or after transforming the data in terms of deviations from time-specific averages), which will be the case under heterogeneous error cross section dependence. Finite sample simulation-based results suggest that our tests perform well, particularly the version based on the [Blundell, R., Bond, S., 1998. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87, 115–143] system GMM estimator. In addition, it is shown that the system GMM estimator, based only on partial instruments consisting of the regressors, can be a reliable alternative to the standard GMM estimators under heterogeneous error cross section dependence. The proposed tests are applied to employment equations using UK firm data and the results show little evidence of heterogeneous error cross section dependence.

For non-stationary vector autoregressive models (VAR hereafter, or VAR with moving average, VARMA hereafter), we show that the presence of common cyclical features or cointegration leads to a reduction of the order of the implied univariate autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIMA hereafter) models. This finding can explain why we identify parsimonious univariate ARIMA models in applied research although VAR models of typical order and dimension used in macroeconometrics imply non-parsimonious univariate ARIMA representations. Next, we develop a strategy for studying interactions between variables prior to possibly modelling them in a multivariate setting. Indeed, the similarity of the autoregressive roots will be informative about the presence of co-movements in a set of multiple time series. Our results justify both the use of a panel setup with homogeneous autoregression and heterogeneous cross-correlated vector moving average errors and a factor structure, and the use of cross-sectional aggregates of ARIMA series to estimate the homogeneous autoregression.

We consider the impact of the 2004 EU enlargement on enterprise performance and the exporting behavior of German service enterprises in Germany’s eastern border region. Our results from regression adjusted difference-in-differences estimators combined with matching and panel data from official statistics suggest that the EU enlargement had a negative impact on the turnover and export intensity of large enterprises in the border region. For small enterprises, we find an annual increase in turnover by 2.3% in 2004 and an annual decrease in profitability by 1.5 and 1.9 percentage points in 2004 and 2005, respectively.

We study the impact of trade on productivity using Chilean plant-level data (1982-1999). Our contribution is to disentangle the impact of export and import barriers. Firstly, we estimate the production functions to obtain plant TFP. Secondly, we estimate trade barriers (border effects) between Chile and its trading partners at the industry level and over time. Finally, we test the impact of trade barriers by regressing productivity on border effect estimates. A fall in export barriers improves productivity in traded sectors, while the reduction of import barriers might foster productivity in export industries but it hurts firms in import-competing ones., Ce travail étudie l'impact des réformes commerciales chiliennes sur l'évolution de la productivité des établissements manufacturiers. Nous utilisons des données de panel micro sur la période 1979-2000. La principale contribution du papier consiste en la construction et l'utilisation de deux types de mesures de la libéralisation commerciale pour distinguer les difficultés à l'exportation et à l'importation. Nous estimons d'abord la productivité totale de facteurs au niveau des établissements en tenant compte de l'hétérogénéité intrinsèque des firmes qui évolue au cours du temps. Ensuite, à l'aide des équations de gravité nous estimons pour chaque industrie les effets des frontières entre le Chili et ses principaux partenaires. Enfin nous estimons l'impact de la libéralisation du commerce extérieur en utilisant les mesures estimées dans l'étape précédente. Nous trouvons que la réduction des difficultés à l'exportation a un effet positif sur la productivité dans les secteurs exposés au commerce relativement aux secteurs abrités. Par ailleurs, par rapport à ces derniers, les firmes appartenant aux secteurs exportateurs augmentent leur productivité à la suite d'une réduction des barrières à l'importation. Ce n'est pas le cas pour les firmes opérant dans les secteurs en concurrence avec les biens d'importations dans les quels les estimations des fonctions des productions révèlent des rendements croissants.

International audience; We study linear factor models under the assumptions that factors are mutually independent and independent of errors, and errors can be correlated to some extent. Under the factor non-Gaussianity, second-to-fourth-order moments are shown to yield full identification of the matrix of factor loadings. We develop a simple algorithm to estimate the matrix of factor loadings from these moments. We run Monte Carlo simulations and apply our methodology to data on cognitive test scores, and financial data on stock returns.

International audience; Vector autoregressions (VARs) are important tools in time series analysis. However, relatively little is known about the finite-sample behaviour of parameter estimators. We address this issue, by investigating ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators given a data generating process that is a purely nonstationary first-order VAR. Specifically, we use Monte Carlo simulation and numerical optimisation to derive response surfaces for OLS bias and variance, in terms of VAR dimensions, given correct specification and several types of over-parameterisation of the model: we include a constant, and a constant and trend, and introduce excess lags. We then examine the correction factors that are required for the least squares estimator to attain the minimum mean squared error (MSE). Our results improve and extend one of the main finite-sample multivariate analytical bias results of Abadir, Hadri and Tzavalis [Abadir, K.M., Hadri, K., Tzavalis, E., 1999. The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases. Econometrica 67, 163-181], generalise the univariate variance and MSE findings of Abadir [Abadir, K.M., 1995. Unbiased estimation as a solution to testing for random walks. Economics Letters 47, 263-268] to the multivariate setting, and complement various asymptotic studies.

This paper studies the impact of outsourcing on individual wages in three European countries with markedly different labour market institutions: Germany, the UK and Denmark. To do so we use individual level data sets for the three countries and construct comparable measures of outsourcing at the industry level, distinguishing outsourcing by broad region. Estimating the same specification on different data shows that there are some interesting differences in the effect of outsourcing across countries. We discuss some possible reasons for these differences based on labour market institutions.

State price densities (SPD) are an important element in applied quantitative finance. In a Black-Scholes model they are lognormal distributions with constant volatility parameter. In practice volatility changes and the distribution deviates from log-normality. We estimate SPDs using EUREX option data on the DAX index via a nonparametric estimator of the second derivative of the (European) call price function. The estimator is constrained so as to satisfy no-arbitrage constraints and it corrects for intraday covariance structure. Given a low dimensional representation of this SPD we study its dynamic for the years 1995–2003. We calculate a prediction corridor for the DAX for a 45 day forecast. The proposed algorithm is simple, it allows calculation of future volatility and can be applied to hedging exotic options.