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En esta investigación se estudió la causalidad en el sentido unidireccional de Granger, desde el índice Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker hacia la volatilidad del mercado accionario chileno, la cual se modela por un procedimiento autorregresivo condicional. Se aplican tres pruebas de causalidad y, de manera complementaria, la prueba de bicorrelación cruzada. Los resultados indican que este índice causa la volatilidad del mercado con la mayoría de las pruebas aplicadas. Esto señala la potencial relevancia de contar con este nuevo indicador para los agentes que participan en los mercados financieros, entre ellos reguladores, compañías y corredores. Adicionalmente, los resultados son congruentes con la evidencia sobre la capacidad predictiva del índice sobre la volatilidad del precio del petróleo y otros índices.

This paper analyzes the time-varying causality between government bond and oil returns of the United States over the monthly period of 1859:10 to 2019:03, that is, the longest possible span of historical data, starting from the beginning of the modern era of the petroleum industry. While the standard constant parameter causality test fails to pick up any evidence of causality, the time-varying framework shows evidence of bi-directional spillovers over the entire sample period. The results are robust to the inclusion of stock returns as a control variable in the model. We also detect evidence of time-varying causality-in-volatility between sovereign bond and oil markets, as well as spillovers in returns and volatility from the oil market to corporate bonds.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the adaptive market efficiency in the price–volume (P–V) relationship of the stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange. The period under study goes from 1982 to 2015. In order to detect causality and, thus, determine adaptive efficiency in the market, one linear and two non-linear tests are applied. There are few papers in the literature that study the P–V relationship in Latin American markets; as such, this paper may be of interest and importance to financial academics and practitioners alike.,The Diks and Panchenko (DP) non-parametric Granger causality and the Brooks and Hinich (BH) cross-bicorrelation tests are applied.,Derived from the DP test, the findings show that there exists bi-directional non-linear Granger causality in 25.71 per cent of the firms studied, compared to 8 per cent when applying the linear Granger causality test. Therefore, there is evidence of weak-form efficiency in the market. From the BH test, evidence is shown of the adaptive market efficiency, since 71.42 per cent of firms exhibited some form of non-linear dependence in certain periods of time. With these results, the information process should be better studied for a greater comprehension of regulatory policies in the market and better decision-making tools for the investors.,This paper complements studies on the P–V relationship and efficiency in a Latin American market.,Este documento analiza la eficiencia adaptativa del mercado para la relacion precio-volumen de las empresas que cotizan en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. El periodo bajo estudio es de 1982 a 2015. Para detectar causalidad y determinar la eficiencia adaptativa del mercado, se aplico una prueba lineal y dos no-lineales. Existen pocos documentos en la literatura que estudien la relacion precio-volumen en mercados latinoamericanos. Como tal, este documento puede ser de interes e importancia tanto para academicos como para profesionales de las finanzas.,Se aplico la prueba de causalidad no-parametrica de Diks y Panchenko y la prueba de bicorrelacion cruzada de Brooks y Hinich.,Derivado de la prueba DP, los hallazgos muestran que existe causalidad no-lineal bidireccional en 25.71% de las empresas bajo estudio, comparado a un 8% cuando se aplica la prueba de causalidad lineal de Granger. Por lo tanto, existe evidencia de eficiencia en forma debil del mercado. De la pruba BH, se muestra evidencia de eficiencia adaptativa del mercado, dado que el 71.42% de las empresas exhibieron alguna forma de dependencia no-lineal en ciertos periodos de tiempo. Con estos resultados, el proceso de informacion debe ser mejor estudiado para una mayor comprension de las politicas regulatorias del mercado y mejores herramientas para la toma de decisiones por los inversionistas.,Este documento complementa los estudios sobre la relacion precio-volumen y la eficiencia en un mercado latinoamericano.

We model the changes in volatility in the Mexican Stock Exchange Index using a Bayesian approach. We study the time series with a wide set of models characterized by a Markov switching heterogeneit...

Causality patterns are analysed for daily Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Argus Sour Crude Index (Argus) oil prices, Argus is the reference price for exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. Nonparametric Granger causality testing uncovers bi-directional causal links between Brent and WTI prices at multiple lags. Unidirectional causality from both Brent to Argus and WTI to Argus is also documented. If the current Saudi Arabia attempt to increase market share is successful, variations in Argus prices may start preceding movements in Brent and WTI, also.

This work applies a test that detects dependence between pairs of variables. The kind of dependence is a non-linear one, and the test is known as cross-bicorrelation, which is associated with Brooks and Hinich [1]. We study dependence periods between U.S. Standard and Poor's 500 (SP500), used as a benchmark, and six Latin American stock market indexes: Mexico (BMV), Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (IPSA), Colombia (COLCAP), Peru (IGBVL) and Argentina (MERVAL). We have found windows of nonlinear dependence and comovement between the SP500 and the Latin American stock markets, some of which coincide with periods of crisis, leading to an interpretation of a possible contagion or interdependence.

Crop prices in the United States (USA), and especially corn prices, have been displaying important changes in the last 10 years, after the ethanol mandate in 2005. Motivated by these significant price changes, there has been a growing interest in the study of price transmission from oil prices to agricultural commodity prices. In this contribution, we concentrate on the relationship between the price of oil and the prices of three agricultural commodities that are used for biofuels production: corn, soybeans, and sugar. In doing so, we apply linear Granger causality tests, the nonlinear causality test of Diks and Panchenko (J Econ Dyn Control 30:1647–1669, 2006), and the Brooks and Hinich (J Empir Financ 6:385–404) cross-bicorrelation test to daily data over the period from 1990 to 2016.

In this paper, we use a cross bicorrelation test to study the relationship between the real price of oil and industrial production in the United States. We find evidence of nonlinearity, for different window frames, over the period from February 1974 to May 2013. Interestingly we find evidence of nonlinearity in two periods that coincide with periods of economic or political instability. Furthermore, we find that in both cases the price of oil leads U.S. industrial production. These findings are important, because they complement the existing literature regarding the existence of a nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between the oil price and economic activity.

In this paper, we apply a nonstructural approach to analyze coffee price returns behavior over time. In particular, we use the Hinich portmanteau statistic test (H) to detect nonlinear dependence of the International Colombian Arabica Coffee price return for the period of June 29, 1990 to July 1, 2010 (5,219 observations). Our results sheds light that in 10 out of 173 episodes, a standard volatility model like GARCH for instance, does not entirely capture all the nonlinearity patterns that are present in the data. And we report some events whose arrival might have induced nonlinear dynamics. Our findings also suggest that the weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) cannot be supported in this market. Key words: Colombian Arabica coffee price, Hinich portmanteau statistic test, nonlinear dependence.

This work presents a mathematical model for reciprocal dumping and transboundary pollution, under a setting of oligopolistic competition. To control emissions, governments can establish two environmental regulation instruments: quotas and taxes. To do so, they calculate the optimal values for these variables and implement environmental policies, which aim to maximize the welfare function for both consumers and manufacturing companies and improve tax revenue and the social cost of polluting. With this model, we are able to conclude that when the social cost of polluting is high, governments should impose a quota for the level of pollution or a tax for contaminating. However, if the cost to abate pollution is high, the government may increase the pollution quota or reduce the tax.

This paper is aimed at studying a MS-GARCH model applied to Bitcoin. The Bayesian estimation of the model shows that Bitcoin’s volatility can be modelled using two states of volatility, high and low. The modelled volatility is not stable over time. Twenty eight periods of high volatility were found, the largest period of volatility occurred during 2013. The findings help explain what happened during these high volatility periods.

The study empirically investigates the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) in the Pakistan stock market over the period of 1992 to 2015. Daily data of returns (KSE-100) is divided into eight sub-samples of equal length of three years each and into different market conditions and are subjected to linear/nonlinear tests to elucidate how market-efficiency has behaved over time and whether a relationship exists between market conditions and levels of return predictability. The tests reveal that returns have gone through periods of dependence and independence over eight sub-samples thus Pakistan Stock Exchange is an adaptive market and consistent with the AMH. Furthermore, certain market conditions are more conducive to the predictability of returns as market conditions have also gone through episodes of significant dependence and independence of return predictability, which is also consistent with the AMH. Therefore, overall results of the study suggest that the AMH better elucidates the behaviour of stock returns than conventional efficient market hypothesis (EMH).

This paper analyzes the direction of the causality between crude oil, gold and stock markets for the largest economy in the world with respect to such markets, the US. To do so, we apply non-linear Granger causality tests. We find a nonlinear causal relationship among the three markets considered, with the causality going in all directions, when the full sample and different subsamples are considered. However, we find a unidirectional nonlinear causal relationship between the crude oil and gold market (with the causality only going from oil price changes to gold price changes) when the subsample runs from the first date of any year between the mid-1990s and 2001 to last available data (February 5, 2015). The latter result may explain the lack of consensus existing in the literature about the direction of the causal link between the crude oil and gold markets., submitted

In this paper we investigate the adaptive market efficiency of the agricultural commodity futures market, using a sample of eight futures contracts. Using a battery of nonlinear tests, we uncover the nonlinear serial dependence in the returns series. We run the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test to uncover the moments in which the nonlinear serial dependence, and therefore adaptive market efficiency, occurs for our sample., Comment: 11 pages

This paper calculates the optimal tax of the emission of polluting agents in oligopolistic possess and under conditions of the reciprocal dumping, in which the firms count on the appropriate technology to decrease the pollution and can decide the amount of emissions generated. In this model the optimal tax mainly depends on the amount of the marginal disutility to pollute, as well as the abatement cost.

El presente estudio examina los determinantes teóricos y la evidencia empíri- ca sobre el uso de instrumentos derivados en América Latina para la gestión de riesgo. Los instrumentos derivados, el desarrollo de sus mercados, así como su uso es sin duda una de las más potentes innovaciones financieras disponibles para personas y empresas. Se muestra que si bien las firmas latinoamericanas usan derivados, hay una carencia de investigación que no permite entender sus determinantes. Se indaga sobre las causas e incentivos del desarrollo del mercado chileno de derivados, concluyéndose que su de- sarrollo no ha podido despegar en bolsa; no obstante, el mercado OTC ha mostrado un sano desarrollo. Por último se plantean metas y desafíos para países latinoamericanos y se proponen posibles ideas de investigación para llenar el vacío existente sobre aspectos empíricos de la gestión de riesgo en estas economías.

Este trabajo utiliza una extension multivariante de la prueba no parametrica de no linealidad de Hinich (1991) con el objetivo de investigar si existe una relacion no lineal entre el indice de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (IPC) y el tipo de cambio peso/dolar medida a traves de la correlacion cruzada y la bicorrelacion cruzada en el periodo 1994-2012 durante tres subperiodos de administracion presidencial. Este metodo divide la muestra en ventanas y proporciona informacion sobre la dependencia no lineal. El principal hallazgo es que no se detectan ventanas de correlacion cruzada significativas. No obstante se observan ventanas de tiempo con una bicorrelacion cruzada significativa, lo que sugiere una relacion no lineal y bidireccional entre las series. Este trabajo concluye que para los tres subperiodos de administracion presidencial ambas series mantienen la misma relacion no lineal y bidireccional para cualquier cambio en el gobierno con ventanas significativas concentradas al principio del periodo presidencial sin importar el partido gobernante. Por ultimo es importante destacar que los periodos no lineales bidireccionales se concentraron a mediados del ultimo periodo presidencial mexicano, lo que indica que los factores financieros externos y economicos globales afectaron esta relacion.