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Worker churn is procyclical in the German labor market. We study the plant-level connection of churn and employment growth using the new Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel from 1975 to 2014. Churn is V-shaped in employment growth. Through analyzing this pattern by worker skill, age, and tenure, we establish that churn is unlikely to result from plant reorganization but rather from uncertainty about match quality. In a dynamic labor demand framework with a time-to-hire friction, churn can be interpreted as a manifestation of idiosyncratically stochastic separation shocks. These shocks become larger and more predictable during booms, leading to procyclical churn. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FTP/2007-2013) / ERC Grant agreement no. 282740. Felix Wellschmied gratefully acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Economics through research grants ECO2014-56384-P, MDM 2014-0431, and Comunidad de Madrid MadEco-CM (S2015/HUM-3444). Heiko Stüber gratefully acknowledge support from the German Research Foundation (DFG) under priority program “The German Labor Market in a Globalized World” (SPP 1764). Christian Merkl gratefully acknowledge support from SPP 1764 and the Hans Frisch Stiftung.

Households face large income uncertainty that varies substantially over the business cycle. We examine the macroeconomic consequences of these variations in a model with incomplete markets, liquid and illiquid assets, and a nominal rigidity. Heightened uncertainty depresses aggregate demand as households respond by hoarding liquid “paper” assets for precautionary motives, thereby reducing both illiquid physical investment and consumption demand. We document the empirical response of portfolio liquidity and aggregate activity to surprise changes in idiosyncratic income uncertainty and find both to be quantitatively in line with our model. The welfare consequences of uncertainty shocks and of the policy response thereto depend crucially on a household's asset position

We study optimal savings in continuous time with exogenous transitions between employment and unemployment as the only source of uncertainty in a small open economy. We prove the existence of an optimal consumption path. We exploit that the dynamics of consumption and wealth between jumps can be expressed as a Fuchsian system. We derive conditions under which an invariant joint distribution for the state variables , i.e., wealth and labour market status, exists and is unique. We also provide conditions under which the distribution of these variables converges to the invariant distribution. Our analysis relies on the notion of T-processes and applies results on the stability of Markovian processes from Meyn and Tweedie (1993a, b,c).

This paper assesses redenomination risk in the euro area. We first estimate daily default-risk-free yield curves for French, German, and Italian bonds that can be redenominated and for bonds that cannot. Then, we extract the compensation for redenomination risk from the yield spreads between these two types of bonds. Redenomination risk primarily shows up at the short end of yield curves. At the height of the euro crisis, spreads between first-year yields were close to 7% for Italy and up to -2% for Germany. The ECB's interventions designed to reduce the risk of a breakup successfully did so for Italy, but increased it for France and Germany.

Are shocks to firms' profitability risk, propagated by physical capital adjustment costs, a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies this question using a heterogeneous-firm dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, where firms face fixed capital adjustment costs. Surprise increases in idiosyncratic risk lead firms to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ policy for investment. The model is calibrated using a German firm-level data set with broader coverage than comparable U.S. data sets. The main result is that time-varying firm-level risk through ‘wait-and-see’ dynamics is unlikely a major source of business cycle fluctuations.

This paper develops a tractable dynamic microeconomic model of migration decisions that is aggregated to describe the behavior of interregional migration. Our structural approach allows us to deal with dynamic self-selection problems that arise from the endogeneity of location choice and the persistency of migration incentives. Keeping track of the distribution of migration incentives over time has important consequences for the econometrical treatment, because the dynamics of this distribution influences the estimation of structural parameters, such as migration costs. For US interstate migration, we obtain a cost estimate of less than one-half of an average annual household income. This is substantially smaller than the migration costs estimated by previous studies. We attribute this difference to the treatment of the dynamic self-selection problem.

This paper investigates the interplay of investment irreversibility and endogenous exit in a duopoly with aggregate demand uncertainty. Endogenous exit and investment irreversibility produce predatory behavior in very competitive industries in which prices react strongly to changes in quantity and in which capacity increases are not too costly. When the market is in decline, firms increase capacity in order to subsequently monopolize this market upon a further decrease in demand. Predatory behavior is particularly likely to occur if fixed costs of operation are substantial. Large uncertainty has the opposite effect and makes predatory behavior less prevalent. Predation occurs as investment irreversibility gives commitment power to delay one's own exit and to promote the exit of a competitor. This explains predatory behavior in a duopoly without invoking reputation, network effects, or learning effects.

This paper examines the implications of financing frictions on capital stocks and on capital accumulation in the presence of non-convex costs of adjusting the capital stock. In this setup finance has an influence on both, the level of capital and the timing of investment. Finance and productivity are complements and finance influences investment the strongest when firms wish to significantly adjust capital for fundamental reasons. These theoretical considerations are confronted with UK data. While finance is mostly irrelevant for long-term capital decision, the short-run investment function shows a significant impact of finance, which is also strongest for strong fundamental investment incentives.

We provide evidence on life-cycle and business-cycle fluctuations in the dispersion of household-level wage innovations, comparing the US, the UK, and Germany. First, we find that household characteristics explain about 25% of the dispersion in wages within an age group in all three countries. Second, the cross-sectional variance of wages is almost linearly increasing in household age in all three countries, but with increments being smaller in the European data. Third, wage risk is procyclical in Germany while it is countercyclical in the US and acyclical in the UK.

From an analysis of the time series of realized variance using recent high-frequency data, Gatheral et al. [Volatility is rough, 2014] previously showed that the logarithm of realized variance behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H of order 0.1, at any reasonable timescale. The resulting Rough Fractional Stochastic Volatility (RFSV) model is remarkably consistent with financial time series data. We now show how the RFSV model can be used to price claims on both the underlying and integrated variance. We analyse in detail a simple case of this model, the rBergomi model. In particular, we find that the rBergomi model fits the SPX volatility markedly better than conventional Markovian stochastic volatility models, and with fewer parameters. Finally, we show that actual SPX variance swap curves seem to be consistent with model forecasts, with particular dramatic examples from the weekend of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the Flash Crash.

We reassess the empirical effects of income and employment on self-reported well-being. Our analysis makes use of a two-step estimation procedure that allows us to apply instrumental variable regressions with ordinal observable data. As suggested by the theory of incomplete markets, we differentiate between the effects of persistent and transitory income shocks. In line with this theory, we find that persistent shocks have a significant impact on happiness while transitory shocks do not. This also has consequences for inference about the happiness effect of employment. We find that employment per se is associated with a nonsignificant decline in happiness. (JEL D12, D52, I31, J22)

Are fluctuations in firms' profitability risk a major cause of regular business cycles? We study this question within the framework of a heterogeneous-firm dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with fixed capital adjustment costs. In such a model, surprise increases of risk lead to a wait-and-see policy for investment at the firm level and a decrease in aggregate economic activity. We calibrate the model using German firm-level data with a broader sectoral, size and ownership coverage than comparable U.S. data sets. The use of these data enables us to provide robust lower and upper bound estimates for the size of firm-level risk fluctuations. We find that time-varying firm-level risk on its own is unlikely to be a major quantitative source of regular business cycle fluctuations. When we augment a model with only aggregate productivity shocks by time-varying risk, the risk shocks dampen the high contemporaneous correlations of the productivity-shock-only model, but do not alter the other unconditional business cycle properties.

We document a new business cycle fact: the cross-sectional standard deviation of firm-level investment (investment dispersion) is robustly and significantly procyclical. This makes investment dispersion different from the dispersion of productivity and output growth, which is countercyclical. Investment dispersion is more procyclical in the goods-producing sectors, for smaller firms and for structures. We show that a heterogeneous-firm real business cycle model with countercyclical idiosyncratic firm risk and non-convex adjustment costs calibrated to match moments of the long-run investment rate distribution, produces a time series correlation coefficient between investment dispersion and aggregate output of 0.58, close to the 0.45 in the data. We argue, more generally, that cross-sectional business cycle dynamics impose tight empirical restrictions on the physical environments and the structural parameters of heterogeneous-firm models.

This paper suggests a combination procedure to exploit the imperfect correlation of cointegration tests to develop a more powerful meta test. To exemplify, we combine Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) tests. Either of these underlying tests can be more powerful than the other one depending on the nature of the data-generating process. The new meta test is at least as powerful as the more powerful one of the underlying tests irrespective of the very nature of the data generating process. At the same time, our new meta test avoids the arbitrary decision which test to use if single test results conflict. Moreover it avoids the size distortion inherent in separately applying multiple tests for cointegration to the same data set. We apply our test to 143 data sets from published cointegration studies. There, in one third of all cases single tests give conflicting results whereas our meta tests provides an unambiguous test decision.

This paper proposes to exploit a reform in legal rules of corporate governance to identify contractual incentives from the correlation of executive pay and firm performance. In particular, we refer to a major shift in the legal and institutional environment, the reform of the German joint-stock companies act in 1884. We analyze a sample of executive pay for 46 firms for the years 1870 to 1911. In 1884, a law reform substantially enhanced corporate control, strengthened the monitoring incentives of shareholders, and reduced the discretionary power of executives in Germany. Pay-performance sensitivity decreased significantly after this reform. While executives received a bonus of about three to five per cent in profits before 1884, after the reform this parameter decreased to a profit share of about two per cent. At least the profit share that is eliminated by the reform must have been incentive pay before. This incentive mechanism was replaced by other elements of corporate governance.

Differences in regional unemployment rates are often used to describe regional economic inequality. This paper asks whether changes in regional unemployment differences in West Germany are persistent over time. Only if such changes are persistent, the differences are a sensible measure of inequality and only then can policies be effective that aim at lowering the dispersion of unemployment rates. Our analysis follows a time-series approach to economic convergence and we test whether unemployment differences between regions are stationary or not. While univariate tests show that changes in unemployment differences are persistent, more powerful panel tests find them to be only transitory. However, these tests reveal only a moderate speed of convergence. Since there is a structural break following the second oil crisis, we also employ unit-root tests that allow for such break. Again we find strong evidence for convergence and now also the speed of convergence is found to be very high. Both results, the presence of regime-wise conditional convergence in regional unemployment rates and fast equilibrium adjustment, have important implications for economic policy targeted at regional unemployment. On the one hand, small government interventions loose their effect quickly as unemployment rates adjust back to their equilibrium levels. On the other hand, large interventions might move the economy from one equilibrium of regional unemployment rates to the other. This means the policy intervention needs to take the form of a substantial regime shift. Most policies that aim at reducing relative unemployment differentials are unlikely to make permanent contributions to social welfare.

This paper analyzes the interaction of financial frictions and non-convex adjustment costs. Non-convex adjustment costs imply that firm-level investment is lumpy. Firms invest infrequently but each investment is large. This allows financial variables to influence investment along two margins. They can alter the size of the stock of capital a company wishes to hold in the long run or they can influence the frequency at which investment projects are undertaken. The empirical analysis of this paper reveals that finance has nearly no long-run influence on the stock of capital in a sample of German companies. By contrast, the influence of finance on investment decisions is substantial. Consequently, finance primarily affects investment frequencies and financial factors and fundamental capital productivity strongly interact in the determination of investment.

We consider the problem of optimizing the expected logarithmic utility of the value of a portfolio in a binomial model with proportional transaction costs with a long time horizon. By duality methods, we can find expressions for the boundaries of the no-trade-region and the asymptotic optimal growth rate, which can be made explicit for small transaction costs (in the sense of an asymptotic expansion). Here we find that, contrary to the classical results in continuous time, see Janeček and Shreve (2004), Finance and Stochastics8, 181–206, the size of the no-trade-region as well as the asymptotic growth rate depend analytically on the level λ of transaction costs, implying a linear first-order effect of perturbations of (small) transaction costs, in contrast to effects of orders λ1/3 and λ2/3, respectively, as in continuous time models. Following the recent study by Gerhold et al. (2013), Finance and Stochastics17, 325–354, we obtain the asymptotic expansion by an almost explicit construction of the shadow price process.

Capital reallocation creates excess volatility in investment in many two-country open economy models. Convex adjustment costs to capital have become a standard tool to deal with this. However, current microeconomic investment models feature non-convex adjustment costs as the dominant friction. This paper analyzes fixed costs to capital adjustment in a two-country business cycle model and finds that fixed costs – unlike in closed economies – dampen aggregate investment volatilities. Moreover, convex adjustment costs can serve as a stand-in for these fixed adjustment costs when one is interested in aggregate dynamics only. Yet, the mapping between fixed and quadratic adjustment costs co-depends on other model parameters.