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The Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network aimed to examine the impact of model structural uncertainty on the estimated cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes. Ten independent modeling groups completed a blinded simulation exercise to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 3 interventions in 2 type 2 diabetes populations. Modeling groups were provided with a common baseline population, cost and utility values associated with different model health states, and instructions regarding time horizon and discounting. We collated the results to identify variation in predictions of net monetary benefit (NMB) and the drivers of those differences. Overall, modeling groups agreed which interventions had a positive NMB (ie, were cost-effective), Although estimates of NMB varied substantially—by up to £23 696 for 1 intervention. Variation was mainly driven through differences in risk equations for complications of diabetes and their implementation between models. The number of modeled health states was also a significant predictor of NMB. This exercise demonstrates that structural uncertainty between different health economic models affects cost-effectiveness estimates. Although it is reassuring that a decision maker would likely reach similar conclusions on which interventions were cost-effective using most models, the range in numerical estimates generated across different models would nevertheless be important for price-setting negotiations with intervention developers. Minimizing the impact of structural uncertainty on healthcare decision making therefore remains an important priority. Model registries, which record and compare the impact of structural assumptions, offer one potential avenue to improve confidence in the robustness of health economic modeling. • Structural uncertainty is known to be an important, but often unexamined, contributor to healthcare decision uncertainty. • Conducting a common simulation exercise across 10 independent modeling groups using uniform parameterization has allowed us to investigate the structural drivers of differences in cost-effectiveness estimates between diabetes models. We show how blinded simulation exercises can be used to quantitatively examine both the drivers and impact of structural uncertainty. Similar exercises could be replicated to examine the effect of structural uncertainty in healthcare decision problems in other disease areas. • This article demonstrates the value of incentivizing collaboration and comparative assessments among modeling groups to critically examine their modeling practice. This generates more robust evidence for decision making. Healthcare decision makers may benefit from directly facilitating collaboration between modeling groups, such as aiding funding and maintenance of model registries, which can demonstrate the relative suitability of different decision models for specific decision problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose using a mixed genetic-floyd-warshall algorithm in combination with a Floyd-warshall algorithm to model the satisficing behaviour of consumers across spatially differentiated stores. Consumer agents can pick a basket of goods from different stores to either maximize their utility or to "satisfice" by selecting the first basket with a utility that is higher than their satisfaction threshold. The Floyd-warshall algorithm is used to find the shortest path between two chosen stores by considering travel cost. Factors such as price, quality of goods, the cost of travel to the store, consumers' decision-making preferences, and store locations play significant roles in the decision-making process of consumer agents. The model is tested based on mechanisms at the individual level to show how the model works and at the macro-level to reproduce foundational theories in economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sulfuryl fluoride (SF) is a fumigant used to eliminate drywood termites (DWT: Kalotermitidae; Froggatt) and other structural pests. Because of its global warming potential, it has been suggested that SF be restricted as a greenhouse gas (GHG). We present an economic model to assess the net social cost of restricting SF. We consider 3 approaches to address DWT control- no treatment, allowing SF fumigation and localized treatments, and only local treatment. Each approach generates private and public benefits and costs. We estimate that the annual damage and home equity loss by DWT in California is US$4.5–16.8 billion without treatment. If fumigation is used on 20% of the houses and local treatments on the others, the combined social cost of treatment, damage, and GHG emissions are between US$1–US$2 billion annually.The annual cost of local treatments only would be between US$3.2 and US$4.9 billion. If the application of SF is severely restricted or banned, the social costs will increase between US$1.43 and US$4.31 billion annually. The implied cost per ton of CO2 eliminated is between US$624 and US$1,465, much above the price range of CO2 in other applications. The restriction/ban has significant equity and environmental effects, impacting low-income individuals living in rented properties and replacing damaged wood in housing will increase GHG emissions. We further recommend the continued use of SF until a comparable whole-structure alternative is developed that fits the parameters of our model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sharing economy offers an alternative to customers with on‐demand services and opens up a new way for owners of underutilized resources to generate revenue. However, there is little evidence on whether sharing economy benefits the community of customers and suppliers or not. Our work is motivated by the ongoing stories of conflicts related to the ride sharing platforms (e.g., Uber, Lyft) and the information we collected from industry practitioners. We propose an economic model that describes how a price manipulating ride sharing platform crowdsources and matches supply to demand. Furthermore, our model captures how sharing economy's manipulative power impacts the community of customers and suppliers. Sharing economy platforms allow customers to make purchase decisions after evaluating the search cost, which depends on other customers' purchase decisions and leads to endogenous demand for sharing economy services. A comprehensive theoretical analysis of such models can be extremely challenging due to the endogenous demand. However, we provide such analysis by assuming that the customers evaluate the search cost with the estimated or "exogenous" demand instead of the realized or "endogenous" demand. Moreover, we support our theoretical findings in more realistic settings by performing various numerical analyses. Our results suggest that the financial objective of sharing economy may conflict with the welfare of the affected community, which can be mitigated by government regulations that impose upper bounds on price surges. Our work helps researchers, practitioners, and public policy makers more comprehensively understand the challenges that sharing economy brings and suggests possible regulatory intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general aim of this research is to validate the hypothesis that the book and its industry, as an integral part of cultural industries, have economic-social characteristics that differentiate them from other industries and merchandise. Once this statement has been corroborated, it is considered that this fact should be taken into account by the academic community, professionals, companies, and those responsible for public administrations when it comes to equating, subsuming, or assimilating the book industry with respect to the creative industries, content industries, entertainment industries, media economics, or copyright industries. The process followed to validate the hypothesis is structured around three objectives: (1) to analyze the main attempts at economic modeling of culture developed over the last 25 years, and how these contemplate the categories of cultural industries and the book industry; (2) to determine by comparison the main socioeconomic characteristics of the cultural industries; (3) to establish in an original way the socioeconomic characteristics of the book industry. For this research, an inductive-deductive method based on three qualitative tools was applied over 29 months (April 2019 to August 2021), including (1) the review, analysis, systematization, and extraction of relevant information through an inductive process of purposefully searching the main sources relating to the objects of study, (2) the establishment of a group of 28 experts who anonymously and systematically debated the different phases of this study in three stages, and (3) in-depth interviews with 43 experts from and on the book industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article considers the financial programs used by the state to support food production based on the use of methods of economic descriptive modeling. It is established that the interpretation of the essence and strategy of financing in practice has quite different approaches. It has been proven that the formation of an effective system of financing food production involves the relationship and effective redistribution between different sources of financial resources. It is substantiated that agriculture has all the prerequisites for productivity growth provided that investment in the Ukrainian agricultural sector increases and effective budget financing. In this regard, the features of food production based on the use of descriptive modeling capabilities using the software package Statgraphics XVII Centurion. Because of the analysis, it is established that the main parametric criterion, which depends on the level of food production in the country as a whole and individual regions, determines the indicator of agricultural production, quantitative parameters of which are taken as a basis for calculating self-sufficiency, import coverage, calories, consumption, profitability and others. Estimation of this indicator by means of modeling allowed to make the forecast of dynamics of change of its volumes for the next twelve time periods for the purpose of preliminary definition of level of food production. For this purpose, the economic and mathematical tools of estimation of forecast dynamics of change of volumes of agricultural production for the future periods are used. Modeling of the indicator of agricultural production per person per year was carried out by research on the normality of distribution using Kolmogorov — Smirnov, Anderson — Darling compliance tests and a modified Kolmogorov — Smirnov test. According to the results of comparative analysis of seventeen different models and five compliance tests, it was found that most of the statistical tests are quadratic model, based on which the projected volumes of agricultural production per person per year and calculated for each forecast year (period) with a reliability of 95% lower and upper limits of the studied indicator. It is established that by 2030 in Ukraine with a high probability the growth trend of agricultural production will continue, and at a high rate. The article outlines the benefits of using economic modeling methods in the study of a particular problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tax administrations play a big role in terms of economic development of the country. Each reform or change implemented by them leave significant imprint on shaping the business environment. Without adopting a fair tax policy, progress in business, as well as in economy is unachievable. Fulfilment of commitments under the cooperation with EU, represents the state priority. Respectively, the best model of European practice is being established from 2021, further promoting the cooperation between Georgia and EU to move to another level. Considering the abovementioned circumstances, the value-added taxable objects have been substantively changed since 2021 in Georgia. The amendments aim to protect the tax payers' rights, improve the tax regime and approximate it to the European Standard to the maximum extent possible. As a result of a qualitative research, the expectations both of field experts and business sector representatives towards the amendments made to value added tax since 2021 have been analyzed through an in-depth interview. The research was aimed at defining the further role of the amendments from the perspective of economic development. The impact of implemented reforms on the development of the country's economy was assessed as the research object; and the amendments made to the Tax Code in 2021 and the mechanisms of its functioning were determined as the subject of the research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the viability of utilizing agricultural biomass-based energy potential, employing mathematical, engineering, and economic modeling techniques. Moreover, the potential of a biogas-based co-digestion (CD) system, integrating its techno-economic performance and environmental sustainability in terms of electricity generation, has also been studied. In this investigation, the categorization of 25 different plant species into two groups: arable field crops (AFCs) and horticultural plants (HPs), was performed. Data was collected during the 2021‐–2022 cropping season in Bangladesh from various sources, including literature reviews, governmental, and non-governmental organizations. The findings revealed that the available agricultural biomass residues, totaling 1,02,585.75 KT, have the capacity to generate 1,33,815 million m3/year of biogas. This energy potential corresponds to 291,125.85 TJ/year or 9231.60 MW of electricity, which can fulfill 88% of the national total energy demand. In terms of levelized cost, the proposed approach is more competitive and shows a greater promise compared to other technologies. Furthermore, it demonstrates environmental friendliness by reducing CO 2 emissions by 156 tons at a cost of $7/ton while earning $1092 annually from the potential carbon-credit market. This approach presents a potential solution to address Bangladesh's energy crisis. The payback period of the system ranged from 2.93 to 3.75 years, with and without the inclusion of a slurry, respectively. The recommended methods hold significant promise for meeting national energy demands. A case study was provided as a proof-of-concept (PoC) to validate the approach. This study is the first of its kind, providing valuable insights into the renewable energy potential in Bangladesh. The results will assist policymakers in formulating sustainable energy policies. • Mathematics, engineering, economics and environmental modeling explored renewable energy. • Techno-economics and environmental sustainability validated the proposed methodology. • Bioenergy-based electricity could supply 88% of the national energy demand of Bangladesh. • A case study was provided as a proof-of-concept (PoC) to validate the approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A pricing model for the simplest commodity markets is considered. The model describes the behavior of the Order Book, consisting of orders from producers, consumers and speculators. The paper explores the external impact on this model in the form of large operations by new market participants, who at high speeds begin to push forward their orders, for example, first bids and then asks. Such strategies are called swings. This paper investigates a single cycle of one simple trading strategy of the swing type. Found a particular model case of pricing potentiality price relative to swing operation. An example is given, that shows that the simplest commodity markets with producers and consumers have the internal property that they are potentially vulnerable to external influences. The swinging of prices through large purchases and sales leads to systematic profits of the entrants at the expense of the traditional market participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to arrive in an econometric model for the analysis of the budget of the communities, the research of the explanatory or theoretical models proposes an analysis of the elements influencing the behavior of the budget of the Municipalities based on the assumption of a trade-off between considerations of autonomous factors of the local sector growth (electoral cycle, behavior of elected officials, inflation…) and short-term considerations of political constraints. The breakdown of these explanatory factors leads us to a global entry, where the explanatory variables of three types: - a macroeconomic variable representative of the economic situation: the rate of inflation, economic growth and rate of fiscal pressure; - budgetary variables representing the financial situation of Local Authorities: total expenditure, total revenue, subsidies and endowments, and time of treasury depletion (where the time between the waiting time for the free funds existing at the General Treasury, for providing an instance for the payment of expenses); - a variable representing the effectiveness of the treasury forecasts and the management of the Local Authority: cash desired in order to standardize the assessment procedures of several Municipalities. In future research, these theoretical or explanatory models will make it possible to prepare an econometric analysis study for a better prediction and budget simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to display benefits of applying economic modeling to predict the most economic treatment among three wastewater treatment plants containing conventional activated sludge without denitrification (CAS), conventional activated sludge with pre-denitrification (CAS-N), and membrane bioreactor (MBR) using CapdetWorks (v.3) simulation software. The software was run for each alternative with an average flow of 30,000 m3/d to calculate and evaluate the current worth costs of these WWTPs. Besides, the price per cubic meter of influent flow of the WWTPs has been evaluated. Tikrit WWTP was selected as a case study. Results demonstrated that the current worth cost of the MBR plant is higher than that for the CAS and CAS-N by about 57%, 42% respectively. Furthermore, the price per cubic meter of influent flow of the CAS plant is 0.2 $/m3. Dissimilarity, costs of the CAS-N and MBR plants are 0.27 $/m3 and 0.43 $/m3 respectively. The low cost of the CAS comes with lower removal efficiencies in comparison to the CAS-N and MBR. Accordingly, the economic modeling is helpful to build and compare relative costs for treatment alternatives which lead to better engineering decisions and suitable selection of the appropriate treatment based on either cost or effluent quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We conduct a cost-utility analysis of inotuzumab ozogamicin (INO) versus chemotherapy as the standard of care (SOC) for adults with relapsed or refractory B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia.Methods: A Markov model incorporating transition probabilities between health states was applied to simulate disease progression. The model inputs, including overall survival, progression-free survival, and utility parameters, were obtained from the INO-VATE ALL trial and literatures. The Taiwan Cancer Registry Database and the Health and Welfare Database were utilized to identify the patient cohort and medical costs from the perspective of National Health Insurance Administration. The lifetime medical costs (in 2017 US dollars), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and associated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were the main study outcomes.Results: The lifetime medical costs for INO and SOC were $176,795 and $69,496, and the QALYs gained were 2.25 and 0.84, respectively. The ICER for INO versus SOC was $76,044 per QALY gained, which is slightly more than three times Taiwan's gross domestic product per capita (i.e., $73,224). Favorable economic results for INO versus SOC were found with an increased time horizon for model simulation, less discounting for the future benefit, and higher stem cell transplantation (SCT) rate after INO treatment; and among patients aged less than 55 years, with no SCT history, or in the first salvage treatment.Conclusions: INO versus SOC has higher costs but is more effective. The use of INO is favorable for patients in the early treatment course and when more future benefit associated with INO is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With their article, Grutters et al raise an important question: What do successful health technology assessments (HTAs) look like, and what is their real-world utility in decision-making? While many HTAs are published in peer-reviewed journals, many are considered proprietary and their attributes remain confidential, limiting researchers' ability to answer these questions. Models for economic evaluations like cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) synthesize a wide range of evidence, are often statistically and mathematically sophisticated, and require untestable assumptions. As such, there is nearly universal agreement among researchers that enhancing transparency is an important issue in health economic modeling. However, the definition of transparency and guidelines for its implementation vary. Model registration combined with a linked database of model-based economic evaluations has been proposed as a solution, whereby registered models and their accompanying technical and nontechnical documentation are sourced into a single publicly-available repository, ideally in a standardized format to ensure consistent and complete representation of features, code, data sources, results, validation exercises, and policy recommendations. When such a repository is ultimately created, modelers will not have to reinvent the wheel for every new drug launched or new treatment pathway. These more open and transparent approaches will have substantial implications for model accuracy, reliability, and validity, improving trust and acceptance by healthcare decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Belying the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) reputation as a bastion of neo-liberal policy orthodoxy, this article analyses important yet contingent transformations in IMF fiscal policy thinking which constituted a key intervention in international austerity debates. Applying only to advanced economies, and in the specific post-crash conditions, the Fund came to champion fiscal policy as a more potent and effective counter-cyclical tool. Analysis focuses on alterations to modeling assumptions and analytical techniques, beginning before the crash but accelerating after it, which intellectually bolstered this view. It finds the Fund's rediscovery of some older (Keynesian) assumptions was both longer in germination and more enduring than some have recognized. It also charts the reconciliation of this contingent Keynesianism to 'congenital' IMF concerns for fiscal sustainability. It highlights the variety of economic insights, often with vastly differing policy implications, found within the Fund, and indeed within mainstream macroeconomics. It builds on work questioning the stability, consistency, and coherence of economic ideas suggested by the paradigm framework, and identifies limitations of a paradigm lens for understanding incremental IMF ideational change. It contributes to politics of economic ideas scholarship in highlighting the importance of economic method and modeling assumptions as sites of contestation within gradual but meaningful ideational change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The 'German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer' (GC-HBOC) offers women with a family history of breast and ovarian cancer genetic counseling. The aim of this modeling study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of genetic testing for BRCA 1/2 in women with a high familial risk followed by different preventive interventions (intensified surveillance, risk-reducing bilateral mastectomy, risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, or both mastectomy and salpingo-oophorectomy) compared to no genetic test.Methods: A Markov model with a lifelong time horizon was developed for a cohort of 35-year-old women with a BRCA 1/2 mutation probability of ≥ 10%. The perspective of the German statutory health insurance (SHI) was adopted. The model included the health states 'well' (women with increased risk), 'breast cancer without metastases', 'breast cancer with metastases', 'ovarian cancer', 'death', and two post (non-metastatic) breast or ovarian cancer states. Outcomes were costs, quality of life years gained (QALYs) and life years gained (LYG). Important data used for the model were obtained from 4380 women enrolled in the GC-HBOC.Results: Compared with the no test strategy, genetic testing with subsequent surgical and non-surgical treatment options provided to women with deleterious BRCA 1 or 2 mutations resulted in additional costs of €7256 and additional QALYs of 0,43 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €17,027 per QALY; cost per LYG: €22,318). The results were robust in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.Conclusion: The provision of genetic testing to high-risk women with a BRCA1 and two mutation probability of ≥ 10% based on the individual family cancer history appears to be a cost-effective option for the SHI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents the optimization and critical evaluation of continuous capture chromatography in the downstream process of a recombinant enzyme. For the upstream manufacturing of this molecule, a perfusion process was implemented due to benefits for product quality and productivity. This process is, however, characterized by low titer and significant changes over the course of the harvest duration in terms of active enzyme concentration and impurity content. We evaluated the feasibility and benefits of a continuous capture operation. This case study illustrates the design approach that can be utilized to address challenges presented by a changing feedstream, and the statistical measures that can be employed to characterize and optimize the operating space under material and time constraints. Process economic modeling in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations indicate that even for a nonaffinity capture step utilizing a relatively cheap ion‐exchange resin, the smaller column volume used in a continuous set‐up results in cost savings compared to the batch process. We compare this option to the scenario of repeated processing using a small capture column in batch mode. Our analysis establishes that continuous processing becomes economically attractive for processes where only a small portion of the potential column lifetime can be utilized or for column steps with slow mass transport and shallow breakthrough curves. In cases where column breakthrough is sharp and resin lifetime is relatively short, continuous processing may offer an improvement over traditional batch processing, but much of the productivity and cost savings can be realized through repeated column cycling. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 2018 © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 34:1195–1204, 2018 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Part of the French timber transformation industry suffers from difficulties to adapt to recent changes on global markets. This translates into net exports of raw wood and imports of transformed products, detrimental to both the trade balance and the local creation of wealth. At the same time, no consistent and homogeneous accounts for wood product production and consumption exist at this time. This article first aims at objectifying this situation by undertaking the first material flow analysis of the French forest-wood supply chain. We then evaluate the potential consequences of various scenarios of raw wood exports reduction policies, namely subsidies for consumption or transformation and taxation of exports, on both economic outcomes for the different actors and material flows. We thus provide an example of coupling material flow analysis with economic modeling in an attempt to move from the diagnostic phase to the assessment of possible actions within a decision-making perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Financial & Credit Activity: Problems of Theory & Practice is the property of University of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Hybrid renewable energy (HRE) system based power generation is a cost effective alternative where power grid extensions are expensive. This system utilizes two or more locally available renewable energy resources such as wind, solar, biomass, biogas and small hydro power with or without conventional fossil fuel energy sources to create standalone mode to meet the energy needs in rural remote areas. This study offers a comprehensive review of the research work carried out in planning, configurations, and modeling and optimization techniques of hybrid renewable energy systems for off grid applications. Hybrid renewable system utilities today are more dependent on an optimal design to minimize the cost function. This paper presents a review of various mathematical models proposed by different researchers. These models have been developed based on objective functions, economics and reliability studies involving design parameters. The present study will familiarize the reader with various optimization techniques of system modeling and enable them to compare these models on the basis of their cost functions. Researchers may consider the most suitable model from the various hybrid renewable system models proposed in this study to develop customized designs for optimizing system size while incurring least cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of terrorism. The economic impact of terrorist attack model (EITA-Model) attempts to estimate the optimum number of potential terrorist incidents that can influence the regional economic performance. The model suggests a three-phase of terrorist operations: (i) the terrorist group attack setting; (ii) the terrorist group attack behavior; and (iii) the post-effect of the terrorist group attack. The model introduces five alternative risk indicators for the estimation of terrorist attacks: (i) the maximum level of terrorist group attack targets ( φ ′); (ii) terrorist group attack destruction (− π ); (iii) economic terrorist wear ( W ); (iv) economic desgrowth (− δ ); and (v) the multidimensional graphical sub-strategic national security sector analysis. The model investigates the recent terrorist attacks in Paris November 2015 and in Brussels March 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The debate on the possible unification of South Korea and North Korea has often been assessed from the economic perspective, which is insufficient since unification entails not only the integration of two economies but political, social and technological integration of two territories. Using the box negotiation diagram model, this paper expands the scope of the study on South Korea and North Korea unification through a multidisciplinary approach encompassing the political, economic, social and technological perspectives. Given the huge imbalanced points of unification drawn from our analysis, we observed more divergence than convergence hence, hinging the possibility of unification of serious negotiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents some examples of real two-dimensional random variables defined on a product of measurable spaces, among which there is a non-trivial stochastic transition function affecting the distribution. For the two-dimensional random variable of each example is determined the correlation coefficient of the random marginal variables, studying its influence of the stochastic transition function. Finally, it presents some applications in the financial field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing economic interaction among various regions in China makes the construction of an interregional input–output table relevant for economic studies. This paper elaborates the model compilation procedure of the China Interregional Input–output model 2002. The key features of the model compilation include: (1) using representative commodities to estimate the interregional commodity flows of the primary industries; (2) adopting functions to estimate the decreasing interregional transportation of manufacturing sectors in relation to distance and (3) selecting appropriate indicators to estimate the interregional commodity flows of non-material sectors. This study is an initial attempt in interregional input–output modelling and might be helpful for economic studies at the levels of micro-regions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study investigates the effect of the change of economic structure on the emissions and energy use in China. The study uses the ChinaLINDA model, a calculation framework especially well-suited for analyzing structural change and sectoral shifts in Chinese economy and industry. We illustrate the implications of the different economic development paths up to year 2030 regarding emissions, energy use and employment with a set of three scenarios. In comparison with the reference scenario, the reduction in CO 2 emission level in Policy scenario is less than 1 3 by 2030 even with huge investment in renewable energy capacity and a clear turn away from carbon-intensive growth pattern. Cumulatively the difference of emissions between the Reference scenario and Policy scenario within 2013–2030 is less than 20%. The Chinese CO 2 intensity and energy intensity targets are rather stringent. Reaching the CO 2 intensity target is difficult even with the optimistic assumption of fast expansion of renewable energy capacity and fast structural change. However, while the renewable energy capacity grows fast, targets set for it are not equally ambitious. The set CO 2 intensity and energy intensity targets call for concretization of energy policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper presents four alternative experimental models for monitoring economic failures. These models include the national production function (NP-Function), the multi-level trade creation and trade diversion analytical framework, the mega-economic structures vulnerability analysis (MSV-Analysis), and the mega-economic surface interactive system. The main objective behind the proposed experimental models in economics is to analyze different macroeconomic scenarios in monitoring and warning of possible unexpected economic failure(s) under the use of a new mathematical framework and the application of multidimensional graphs. The proposed alternative experimental models are based on the application of Econographicology. Hence, our models are expected to offer policy-makers and researchers new analytical tools to study the impact and trend of economic failures in the economy of any country from a new perspective. Finally, we suggest the application of three new concepts in the study of economic failures such as Omnia Mobilis (everything is moving), the global structural imbalance principle, and the dynamic imbalance state. Therefore, our findings would certainly help both policy makers and researchers to implement and execute appropriate policies to develop their economies and to protect them from unwanted situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper present the stages by which we associate a formal language of a economic process. It proposes the use of a mathematical model, described as a graph, for the specification of business processes such as: investments, organization of production, activities of economic analysis. It deals with those economic problems that may be put into formal practice when there is no possibility of using one of the known techniques, or when we are modeling a business process, a manufacturing process etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Berichte zur Wissenschafts-Geschichte is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The analysis presented in this paper is focused on basic properties of discrete distributed lag models. Such models are commonly used to model dynamic systems in various applications. In the presented considerations, time-varying distributed lags have been analyzed. Composite distributed lag models analyzed in this paper result from the summation or superposition of component distributed lag models. The analysis is restricted to models with a lag distribution, whose mean lag and variance exist. The paper presents relationships between the mean values and variances of the lag distributions of composite distributed lag models and of the component distributed lag models, as well as the relationships between the variance of the random term of composite distributed lag models and the variance of the random term of the component distributed lag models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Aims: Improved data and methods are needed for modeling disease progression in Alzheimer's disease (AD) for economic evaluation of treatments. The aim is to estimate prediction models for long-term AD progression and subsequently economic outcomes. Methods: Three-year follow-up data on 435 patients treated with the cholinesterase inhibitor donepezil in clinical practise were analyzed. Regression models were estimated for long-term prediction of decline in cognitive function (ADAS-cog) and activities in daily living (ADL) ability, risk of institutionalization and costs of care. Results: The cognitive deterioration was estimated at between 1.6 and 4 ADAS-cog points per every 6 months, increasing with disease severity. Cognitive function was an important predictor of ADL-ability, which itself was the most important predictor of the risk of institutionalization and costs of care. Combining all models in a cross-validation process generated accurate predictions of costs of care at each 6 months follow-up. Conclusion: The proposed methods for representing AD progression and economic outcomes can be used in micro-simulation models for the economic evaluation of new treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This article assesses the potential benefits of including findings from neurobiology in economic decision-making models. First, we emphasize that the evidence supports both ‘expected utility-like’ theory and ‘Bayesian-like’ information acquisition theory. Second, we explain that inferences and representations are subject to physiological limitations that affect decision making. We report in particular two ‘mechanical’ models developed in neuroscience to represent neural data and choices. We then propose two economic models that incorporate physiological limitations into an expected utility framework. Interestingly, these two models provide foundations for those developed in neuroscience (which emerge endogenously in our framework) and provide further predictions that can be tested in principle. This allows us to discuss the benefits of bringing together evidence from neuroscience and economic modeling. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Background: When allocating limited resources, public and private sector leaders in health policy consider both the health and economic value of new measures for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. The ability to develop and prioritize policy measures is hindered by important gaps in health economics data. Methods and Results: The Policy Research Implementation Group (PRIG) of the National Forum for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention convened a symposium to develop priorities for research on the economics of CVD primary prevention and elimination of CVD disparities. Suggested top opportunities include expanded CVD surveillance, advances in evaluation and economic modeling of primary prevention, and use of behavioral economics to identify new prevention strategies. Enhanced policy, funding, and leadership support are vital to realizing this research agenda. Conclusions: Targeted research on the health and economic value of CVD prevention, especially to eliminate CVD disparities, would bolster the justification for increased investment in cardiovascular health. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Copyright of Semestre Económico is the property of Sello Editorial de la Universidad de Medellin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract: Many policies are being designed to mitigate impacts of human activities on the environment. An environmental evaluation of these policies should include assessments of their impacts according to all known environmental impacts. Moreover, because policies may indirectly affect regions or economic sectors not initially targeted by these policies, indirect environmental consequences should be included in environmental balances. Life cycle analysis (LCA) is a holistic method made to assess environmental impacts caused by products or services according to various environmental damage categories. However, the ability of LCA to model environmental consequences due to a change is restricted to marginal changes occurring in small life cycles. New methodological developments are needed to study major changes and their environmental consequences as they may happen when a policy is applied at large scale. For that purpose, the economic general equilibrium model GTAP has been used to predict global economic perturbation that would be caused by two different European energy policies (bioenergy policy and business as usual policy). LCA was then used to assess environmental impacts due to European energy generation and perturbation of world economy. Despite the bioenergy policy involves more energy from renewable technologies which are expected to be less polluting, results show that due to rebound effects, bioenergy policy results in more environmental impacts. Combining both GTAP and LCA improves environmental assessment made with GTAP because it allows computing environmental impacts according to products life cycles instead of using economic sector emission factors and because emissions and extractions from environment are related to impacts on environment. Regarding LCA method, this new approach allows studying significant changes affecting large systems with a global modeling of economy in a time dependent environment. However, more work is needed to evaluate this new approach, especially uncertainty should be studied. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A process and cost model was developed for fuel ethanol production from winter barley based on the EDGE (Enhanced Dry Grind Enzymatic) process. In this process, in addition to β-glucanases, which are added to reduce the viscosity of the mash, β-glucosidase is also added to completely hydrolyze the oligomers obtained during the hydrolysis of β-glucans to glucose. The model allows determination of capital costs, operating costs, and ethanol production cost for a plant producing 40million gallons of denatured fuel ethanol annually. A sensitivity study was also performed to examine the effects of β-glucosidase and barley costs on the final ethanol production cost. The results of this study clearly demonstrate the economic benefit of adding β-glucosidase. Lower ethanol production cost was obtained compared to that obtained without β-glucosidase addition in all cases except one where highest β-glucosidase cost allowance and lowest barley cost were used. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Copyright of Journal of Central European Agriculture is the property of Journal of Central European Agriculture and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Summary: Most food globally is produced from soil moisture that comes exclusively from precipitation, or “green” water. Moreover, most of the water reaching plants in irrigated systems also stems from precipitation. Despite this, irrigation or “blue” water has typically been the focus for policy analysis in the past, given the possibility for human manipulation of these resources. This paper analyzes alternative water futures using a combined green and blue water accounting framework embedded within the water simulation components of IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Recently developed future scenarios for the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) and other work are assessed with this adjusted green/blue water accounting framework. Accounting explicitly for green water resources broadens the scope of options for decision-makers trying to improve agricultural production in the face of rising food and energy prices and a degrading water and land resource base in the face of increasing demands. Results highlight the importance of green/blue water accounting presenting a wider range of agricultural science and technology policy options for increasing global crop productivity across a span of potential futures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Sometimes a large agent, called a super-agent, wishes to control the arms expenditures of regional powers over time, but this type of situation is difficult to analyze if the smaller agents are interacting with others. This paper attempts to overcome some of these difficulties and to provide general results that will be useful for comparison with models of more particular cases. It does this by extending the well known Richardson approach to dynamic arms races in new directions. It also produces some counterintuitive results. Among these is that the optimal programme for the super-agent may be to accelerate the expenditure of agents whose final expenditure it wishes to reduce. This has implications for large power policy in the Middle East and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the macro level, the time-series of the amounts of loans granted (a flow) and repaid (a flow) to the banking system in each period are not available. The information on these flows is important in many analyses, such as the impact of the bank lending on investment outlays. However, one can get the information concerning the structure of loans (a stock variable) regarding their duration. In each period, the loans are granted for different periods: from overnight ones to those lasting several years. The effective preferences of the credit takers are reflected in the term distribution of the outstanding loans. In order to estimate these flows, a model aimed at linking the above-mentioned preferences, the levels of loans and flows has been developed. In the approach proposed, the amount of loans outstanding is a resultant of the rate of the new loans and their duration, which in turn is the result of the term preferences. The evaluation of the flow of loans granted in the Polish banking sector is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In fund raising management the employment of a decision support system is crucial for optimising the results of fund raising campaigns. However, the current tools based on database technology are not able to suggest suitable fund raising strategies and the support to the fund raiser is limited to giving general indications in relation to specific claims. In this paper, we present a fuzzy knowledge based decision support system, which is able to individuate promising fund raising strategies for a given campaign. The system uses a knowledge based description of the campaign features and of the donors profiles and integrates these data with two models for strategies and historical information evaluation, rules of thumb suggested by experts in the field, and recent econometric studies. The system provides a ranking of suitable strategies using fuzzy evaluations. Experimental results confirm the applicability of the proposed approach in real contexts, providing significant insight into the improvement of campaigns performances. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The agreement between international agencies that Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA) are the most appropriate way to measure the economic contribution of tourism has led to an explosion in the number of countries (and regions) developing such accounts. In reliably reconciling visitor supply and demand, TSAs offer improved information for tourism policy development and economic impact assessments, both of which are important in guiding resources and support for new tourism infrastructure and individual events. There are, however, a number of conceptual and structural issues that limit the usefulness of the TSA for economic modeling purposes. This article suggests that while the collection and manipulation of information that supports the ISA will aid impact and policy assessment, a further reengineering of the TSA framework is necessary to lever the full benefits for such studies. The TSA is found to be ideally used as a basis for complementary modeling techniques, including that of Computable General Equilibrium and Social Accounting Matrices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mega sport events, like the Olympic Games™ and the FIFA World Cup™, are the most important international tourism events. Although both events have a high attractiveness to international tourism, they are very different with regard to organization and hosting. On the one hand, there are the multi-sport competitions within the Olympic Games™, which are hosted 16 days within a national metropolis. On the other hand, there is the single-sport competition within the FIFA World Cup™, which is hosted one month nationwide in 10 to 12 major cities. Due to pre-event infrastructure investments as well as tourism consumption during the event phase, the regional economic impact consequentially spreads much more all over the country. Estimating these regional economic impacts normally is a difficult task. This paper presents some estimates of potential overall and regional economic effects on the German economy due to hosting the FIFA World Cup™ 2006. The results have been prepared using the dynamic interindustry-based macroeconomic simulation model SPORT (Ahlert, 2001), which has a special focus on analyzing sport-economic activities and events. The simulation results are based on a scenario that takes into account the necessary investments for upgrading the stadium facilities in the venues of the event as well as the tourism expenditure of incoming world cup visitors during the event in 2006. In a second step, it is explained how these overall economic effects can be transmitted to the regional level of the 16 German federal states by the dynamic regional-economic modeling system LANDER. The results show that it is possible to estimate the macroeconomic effects of the FIFA World Cup™ 2006 consistently on the overall national as well as regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consider a firm as an organization that needs to efficiently coordinate several specialized departments in an uncertain environment. Decision making involves collective planning sessions and decentralized operational processes. In this setting this paper explores the role of economic modeling through an experimental game. Results support the idea that economic modeling favors higher performance. Economic modeling facilitates the emergence of common knowledge and the decomposition of a group decision problem into individual decision problems that are meaningfully interrelated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The properties of automatic model selection are discussed, focusing on PcGets. We explain the background concepts and why automatic methods can perform well. Criticisms of model selection procedures are noted and rebutted. The algorithm is sketched, distinguishing between costs of search and costs of inference: the latter are unavoidable in any statistical science, whereas the costs of searching seem small in comparison. The choice of a ‘search strategy’ and the actual simulation performance of the approach are discussed. We outline a number of developments that will improve the behavior, and generalize the scope, of such programs, and tackle hitherto intractable problems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We use an economic model to formalize the complex relationships among IT investments, intermediate performance measures (e.g., product quality and output levels), and economic performance (e.g., productivity, profits, and consumer surplus). We demonstrate that a profit-maximizing monopolist invests in IT (modeled as changes in parametric characteristics of the firm) to design a better-quality product and charge a higher price. While this profit-maximizing adjustment generates more consumer surplus, it also increases production costs in a way that adversely affects productivity. In contrast, a simple model extension shows that when a firm is unwilling or unable to improve product quality, then IT investments result in suboptimal improvements in profits, an increase in consumer surplus, and an increase in productivity. Together, these models highlight the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between IT investments and economic performance. We also demonstrate that these relationships are robust to the socially optimal case in which a social planner chooses price and quality to maximize social welfare. In addition, we demonstrate that the results of the monopoly model hold when considering the design and development of products offered free of charge (e.g., free online content), but that provide indirect benefits to the firm (e.g., more advertising revenues). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In mineral process operations, vortex separators are used extensively for solid-liquid separation. Their performance depends on the particle separation size, diameter and number of installed units in a battery. These parameters have severe impact on the concentrate and hence project economics. The design procedures are normally based on the correlation developed from historic data and for data from manufacturers. However, it is always impossible to eliminate the elements of uncertainty, which could result in concentrate losses in the tailings. It is therefore important to implement an online process monitoring of the vortex separators to correct any deficiencies to prevent low separation efficiencies and high concentrate losses. In this study, the authors develop an intelligent monitoring technology, forex to solve the problem. forex is an interactive fortran-based program in excel with graphic display that allows the user to input or modify the operating and other process parameters to yield economic separation results. For an industrial stream of 1000 tons day−1, feed concentration of 0.76 kg m−3, given an individual underflow to feed ratio of 0.1 and differential specific gravity of 1.04, forex intelligently yielded an economic battery of seven vortex separators with an individual diameter of 44.8 mm, operating at a pressure drop of 11.8 bar and an optimum particle separation size of 3.86 μm. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]