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City deals – place-based agreements between central and local state actors – are an increasingly common intervention for supporting economic performance in urban areas. This paper presents empirical evidence on the effectiveness of city deals by estimating the impact of the UK's City Deals scheme on rates of economic growth, productivity and job creation across England between 2010 and 2019. Because the City Deals were introduced in two waves, we estimate its effects using a differences-in-differences (DiD) with multiple time periods (MTPs) approach. Our DiD estimates indicate that, overall, the City Deals were associated with improvements in local economic performance, but that the first wave of city deals resulted in gains of around 2.5% to 3% that were not observed in the second wave. These results suggest that city deals are most effective when appropriate institutional structures are in place and highlight the value of MTP approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, environmental concerns have emerged as significant obstacles to economic advancement, leading to a critical examination of the complex relationship between environmental sustainability and economic expansion. With the economy expanding swiftly and environmental hazards intensifying, immediate action must be taken to address these problems. This necessitates innovative policies and practices that foster sustainable economic growth while minimizing environmental impact. To solve these issues, this study proposed an extensive analytical framework employing machine learning techniques, particularly artificial neural networks (ANNs), to investigate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. According to the EKC hypothesis, environmental degradation worsens before economic growth occurs. This study examines GDP per capita and key environmental indicators to measure economic development, using data from Anhui Province, China, from 2012 to 2019. The analysis provides empirical support for the theory and establishes a modeling framework that seamlessly integrates ML methodologies with EKC analysis, systematically examining and assessing the EKC's reliability for Anhui Province. The intricate interplay between Anhui Province's environment and economy, utilizing industrial waste gas, wastewater, and solid waste as critical indicators, evaluates environmental quality. At the same time, per capita GDP is the economic growth parameter. The findings indicate that the EKC does not adhere to an unchanging law but instead displays variations in distribution characteristics. The experimental results of the proposed ANN model demonstrate an impressive accuracy rate of 87%, outperforming five alternative models, including RF, KNN, DT, and LR. This superior model performance underscores the effectiveness of the ANN-based approach in capturing the intricate dynamics linking economic development and environmental pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the relation of four different financial development indicators and export performance, sampled from nine member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States, with economic growth for the period of 1995–2020. Its long-run relationship with PVAR analysis has been presented through VECM. The FMOLS and DOLS methods are used for the long-term coefficient estimates. According to the findings, there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and export, and broad money, domestic credit to the private sector by banks, and monetary sector credit to private sector variables. The findings indicate that both financial development and export have a positive impact on economic growth. On the other hand, the findings have not presented sufficient evidence about the influence of the gross capital formation variable on economic growth while the monetary sector credit to private sector variable has been found to negatively affect economic growth. When the results of FMOLS and DOLS models are assessed together, it is concluded that export and financial development affects economic growth positively in the long term, but the first one's effect is less. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every decision depends on a forecast of its consequences. We examine the calibration of the single longest and most complete forecasting project. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has, since 1968, collected predictions of key economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Here, we test the accuracy of those forecasts (n = 16,559) and measure the degree to which they fall victim to overconfidence, both overoptimism and overprecision. We find forecasts are overly precise; forecasters report 53% confidence in the accuracy of their forecasts, but are correct only 23% of the time. By contrast, forecasts show little evidence of optimistic bias. These results have important implications for how organizations ought to make use of forecasts. Moreover, we employ novel methodology in analyzing archival data: we split our dataset into exploration and validation halves. We submitted results from the exploration half to Collabra:Psychology. Following editorial input, we updated our analysis plan for the validation dataset, preregistering only analyses that were consistent across different economic indicators and analytic specifications. This manuscript presents results from the full dataset, prioritizing results that were consistent in both halves of the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South African government has made considerable investments to ensure the sustainability and productivity of the aquaculture sector. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of financing aquaculture on economic growth, unemployment, and entrepreneurship period of 1994 to 2019. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to check the dynamic causality between the study variables. The results show that there is a negative and statistically insignificant relationship between aquaculture financing and economic growth. Furthermore, aquaculture financing is positively associated with unemployment and entrepreneurship. The study encourages linkages between aquaculture smallholder farmers and commercial farmers to exchange knowledge and training. Therefore, revamping aquaculture strategies to promote productivity in the sector is necessary. Improvement in the aquaculture technological system is required, which can be achieved through better facilities and greater financial support to boost the aquaculture sector. There is therefore a need to invest more in technological innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the approval of sustainable development goals at the global level, the link between fiscal policy, institutional quality, and economic growth has attracted special attention in economic literature. This study scrutinizes the effect of government revenue-institutional quality interaction on the economic growth of 43 Sub-Saharan Africa countries for the period of 2012–2022. Methodology-wise, the study employed the System Generalized Method of Moment (SGMM) to analyze the panel data gained from dependable data sources; the World Development Indicator and the Heritage Economic Freedom Index. The novelty of this study emanates from the estimation technique designated and the introduction of revenue-institutional quality into the economic growth model of SSA. The result of the study reveals that government revenue adversely affects economic growth while institutional quality positively enhances economic growth before interacting with each other. However, the interactive coefficient of government revenue and economic growth positively affected the real GDP growth rate of SSA countries over the study periods. Precisely, before interacting with institutional quality, a percentage change in government revenue, keeping all other things constant, leads to a 0.0866 percent decline in economic growth while it marks a 0.2329 percent upsurge in economic growth in the presence of institutional quality. The result of the study further shows that government revenue promotes the economic growth of the region when combined with institutional quality. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness to trade were the key sources of economic growth whereas the population growth rate adversely impacted economic growth in SSA countries. The policy implication of the study is that SSA needs to strengthen government revenue management. Further, the finding of the study implies that SSA countries need to improve institutional quality through promoting efficiency of the regulatory quality and the size of the SSA governments. In addition to this, the fast real GDP growth rate of SSA countries demands improved institutional quality indicators such as the rule of law and extended access to the open market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the linkage between fiscal policy-governance indicators interaction and economic growth in 36 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from the periods of 2011–2021 inclusive. The study employed two-step system Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation technique due to its practical relevance in panel data analysis. The data obtained from World Bank and World governance indicator was checked for unit root through the help of Im Pesaran Shin and Levin-Lin-Chu unit-root tests, and the result revealed that data was stationary and safe for further analysis. The result of the study also presented that direct economic effect of fiscal policy is negative and significant in SSA countries. However, the interaction of fiscal policy with governance indicators has positive and significant effect on economic growth. Accordingly, before interacting with governance indicators, a percentage change in fiscal policy leads to a 0.20 percent decline in economic growth of SSA countries. Contrary to this, the interactive coefficient of fiscal policy and government effectiveness (0.019) and interactive coefficient of fiscal policy and corruption control (0.0046) are found to be positive and significant. Further, the finding of the study revealed that fiscal policy-voice and accountability interaction coefficient (0.011) and interactive coefficient of fiscal policy-regulatory qualities (0.014) are positively and significantly affecting economic growth of SSA countries. The policy implication is that policy makers in SSA countries should encourage economic policies that improve government effectiveness, strong corruption control, clean public services and better regulatory qualities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globalisation - characterised by dynamic economic growth, increasing exploitation of the natural environment, and deepening social inequalities - brings negative consequences and is strongly perceptible also in local communities. A new approach to development policy based on the idea of sustainable development must be incorporated into local governments' strategies, programmes, and actions. We adopted exploratory approach to determine the level and identify the spatial patterns of sustainable development of Polish poviats. The aggregated (synthetic) indicators of economic, social, and environmental development were developed to analyse the spatial patterns of the poviats' development trends. Our research shows that in Poland there are overwhelmingly more poviats characterised by lower development than those better developed in all three analysed categories. Hierarchical analysis using the Ward's method revealed that Polish poviats can be divided into three relatively homogeneous clusters in terms of development levels. The largest group consists of poviats characterised by the relatively lowest level of sustain-ability in economic and social areas, and the highest - by environmental development. Analyses using the Moran method made it possible to determine the so-called spatial regimes of clusters. The captured spatial relationships indicate that selected poviats have a significant impact on the level of development in the neighbouring poviats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the impact of economic growth targets on green total factor productivity (GTFP) based on a panel Tobit model and two manual datasets of 30 Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2019. We find that economic growth targets significantly inhibit GTFP, which is more pronounced in provinces that have high incentives when setting targets, use hard constraints when announcing targets, and fulfill their targets. In addition, we find that economic growth targets inhibit GTFP by undermining economic efficiency and aggravating environmental pollution. Moreover, the command-controlled environmental regulations weaken the inhibitory effect on GTFP, while market-motivated environmental regulations aggravate this inhibitory effect. Our findings confirm that the promotion assessment system based on economic performance leads to the irrationality of local governments in establishing economic growth targets, and the local governments pursue economic growth at the cost of development quality and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This article examines the links between average city size, fiscal decentralisation, and national economic growth in 33 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Design/methodology/approach: The data in this paper comprise an unbalanced panel dataset which contains economic growth indicators, average city size, fiscal decentralisation indicators and control variables in 33 OECD member countries from 1975 to 2015 in five-year intervals. Fixed-effects (FE) estimators are used for the analysis. Findings: This research finds i) countries with larger weighted average city sizes have higher economic growth, ii) countries with greater fiscal decentralisation have higher economic growth, but iii) countries with larger weighted average city sizes with greater decentralisation have lower rates of economic growth. Originality/value: The research highlights the importance of agglomerations and decentralised governance and management for economic growth. While the findings are consistent with previous evidence that larger city sizes and fiscal decentralisation are separately associated with higher rates of economic growth, the authors find countries which have larger cities and greater fiscal decentralisation experience lower rates of economic growth highlighting a need for caution on decentralisation agendas in such cases. The implications of this suggest policymakers should proceed with caution on decentralisation agendas in countries with large cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rapidly growing body of research suggests that modern economies find themselves at existential crossroads: both prosperity and survival are a function of consumption-fueled economic growth. Prosperity seemingly depends on it; survival is made increasingly impossible by it. Economists measure economic growth by what is generally recognized as a deeply flawed yet still hegemonic economic performance indicator—GDP. This paper suggests that growth based in increased consumption is in need of reconceptualization no matter what the measure, and invites the research community of the Journal of Consumer Culture to investigate what such a research agenda might look like. Economic logic itself, this essay argues, needs to be re-embedded in science, rather than operate as a self-referential logic outside of natural boundaries. Biophysical limits force us to question economic growth as a goal. A wide range of social pathologies, furthermore, from inequality to stress to loneliness, raise deep questions about the desirability of growth. The essay is a self-conscious provocation to the discipline of economics: there is an emerging need to move beyond a conceptualization of the economy as a self-contained system of monetary market exchanges defining the relations between production, distribution, and consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Since financial sector plays a critical economic role in Hong Kong, the current research aims to comprehensively analyze the association between financial development and economic growth in the country to draw correct conclusions about the impact that financial sector's development has on the growth of the economy. This requires both using of more comprehensive data that includes all or nearly all elements of the country's financial sector and utilizing advanced econometrics techniques to provide more reliable evidence based on the findings. In the study, both issues have been addressed more academically to aid the relevant authorities better. Design/methodology/approach: This study empirically examines the financial development-economic growth nexus in Hong Kong employing data covering 1980–2019. The quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach of Sim and Zhou (2015) is utilized to investigate certain subtle aspects of the association linking financial development and economic growth. In addition, the authors benefit from applying the nonlinear Granger causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) to assess the variables' nexus in a nonlinear manner. Findings: In contrast to the evidence of a unidirectional linkage documented in many related studies, the empirical findings suggest that a bi-directional relationship exists between financial development and economic growth for Hong Kong. This is a helpful input for the relevant policymakers and implies that they can set appropriate policies and regulations to balance financial development and economic growth in this country. Originality/value: The originality of this study can be divided into two parts. Methodologically, unlike past studies that utilized mostly linear and parametric methods, the paper contributes to the literature by applying the more robust nonparametric and nonlinear methodologies. Theoretically, most researchers have used various financial development indicators, which led to very different conclusions. Therefore, this study attempts to resolve this deficiency in the literature by using a more comprehensive index for financial development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long tradition in economic theory has seen the real exchange rate (RER) as a key determinant of trade performance. Several empirical studies, however, have found low estimates of macro trade elasticities and, as a result, questioned this argument. In this paper, we show that to understand and estimate the effect of RER on trade performance, it is crucial to explore the existence of heterogeneous responses of individual products to RER movements. Using trade data from Argentina, we employ the Mean Group method to estimate macro trade elasticities by individual products disaggregated at four digits of the SITC; rev.2. We find a wide range of heterogeneous responses of exports and imports to RER movements at the individual product level. We find that the estimated RER-elasticities in differentiated products and labor-intensive manufacturing goods are substantially larger than those of primary and homogeneous products. Based on the estimated elasticities at the product level, we obtain a "low" aggregate RER-elasticity of exports when we weigh them by the country's trade basket. We show that this result is a consequence of Argentina's economic structure, a country whose exports are heavily specialized in primary and homogeneous products. Our results are important because they help build a bridge between two conflicting views in the RER-economic development literature. Even in countries with "low" aggregate macro RER-elasticities, the real exchange rate may be an important variable for economic performance. An undervalued RER may facilitate economic growth by stimulating investment in activities producing more complex/differentiated goods in countries that specialize in the production of primary and homogeneous goods and, as a result, have "low" trade elasticities. This seems to be the case of several countries in Latin America, including Argentina. • We find a wide range of heterogeneous responses of exports and imports to RER movements at the individual product level. • The estimated RER-elasticities in differentiated products and labor-intensive manufacturing goods are substantially larger than those of primary and homogeneous products. • Based on the estimated elasticities at the product level, we obtain a "low" aggregate RER-elasticity of exports when we weigh them by the country's trade basket. • We show that this result is a consequence of Argentina's economic structure, a country whose exports are heavily specialized in primary and homogeneous products. • Our results are important because they help build a bridge between two conflicting views in the RER-economic development literature. Even in countries with "low" aggregate macro RER-elasticities, the real exchange rate may be an important variable for economic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the Latin American countries, the Mexican economy has shown since the late 1990’s one of the lowest rates of economic growth. This is perplexing, because of the persistency of the stagnation tendencies, and because of the rapid growth shown by its exports, especially to the US, that reached $370 billion in 2018. The poor economic performance has had adverse consequences in terms of unemployment, emigration, social conflict, and especially in terms of the losses of female and male youth employment. This paper seeks to explain the causes of Mexico’s economic stagnation. The methodology consists of the estimation of cointegration equations that express per capita economic growth as a function of the growth of labor productivity, plus the growth of the female and male employment to population ratios. Additional equations were estimated to identify the variables that explain the growth of productivity and of employment ratios and to estimate the role of deindustrialization in economic stagnation. An analysis was made of the role of female employment on the mobilization of domestic savings, on the determination of the deficit in the trade account, and on the constraint exerted by the balance of payments on growth. The source of data was the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The results indicated that female employment is an important determinant of external solvency and contributes to overcoming the balance of payments constrain on economic growth. Another salient result is the negative impact of youth unemployment on labor productivity and the negative impact of the percentage of young women that neither study nor work on economic growth. The policy implications are related to the importance of promoting male and female employment with a view towards accelerating economic growth, and the need to establish measures to facilitate women's entry into the labor market. This would require the establishment of national networks of childcare centers, the expansion of early childhood education, improving the quality of education, and increasing wages. As well, policies must be implemented to promote the reindustrialization and reagriculturalization of the Mexican economy to obtain national selfsufficiency and security and impart dynamism to economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, official promotion evaluation based on economic performance motivates local governments to develop high economic growth targets, which has played an active role in boosting China's economic growth in the past decades, whereas its environmental consequences have not been fully exploited. This paper finds that the economic growth target overweight has a stronger positive impact on the output of high-polluting industries than on the output of low-polluting industries, thus inducing more polluting activities. To deal with the issues of reverse causality and omitted variables bias, we take an instrumental variable approach. Examining mechanisms, we show that economic growth target overweight promotes polluting activities through the deregulation of the polluting activities in high-polluting industries. We also find an increase in the impact of the economic growth target overweight after the 2008 global economic crisis. Our study provides new evidence for explaining the dual presence of rapid economic growth and heavy environmental pollution in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we calculate the productive capabilities of Mexico's municipalities (i.e., their Economic Complexity Index, or ECI) and the productive capabilities required for their economic activities to be carried out (i.e., the ECI of their economic activities). We do this in order to determine whether or not the differences in the main municipal economic indicators (such as levels of wealth, economic growth rates, and salaries) are associated with differences in productive capabilities. Specifically, our results illustrate: i) a considerable heterogeneity, in terms of productive capabilities, across municipalities; ii) a positive relationship between the level of economic complexity of municipalities and their level of wealth and rate of economic growth, and iii) a positive relationship between the complexity of economic activities and the average salaries received by those employed in them. Furthermore, by finding that the majority of new firms in complex (non-complex) municipalities generally tend to engage in more sophisticated/higher-value-added (less sophisticated/lower-value-added) economic activities, we provide supporting evidence on the gradual accumulation of productive capabilities within municipalities to the literature on evolutionary economic geography. According to this literature, this is how economies generally develop, i.e., by gradually accumulating productive capabilities so as to become more diverse and be able to engage in more complex economic activities, allowing economies to grow and become wealthier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting limits on government action is critical to economic development. Some forms of government organization, such as market‐preserving federalism, seem effective to protect property rights in the long term with good results for economic efficiency. Spain endowed its regions with "Statutes of Autonomy" in the 1980s thus moving from a centralized to a decentralized form of government. It renewed and expanded some of the statutes in the 2000s. This article investigates whether these two waves of regionalization, which had their own characteristics in each region, had led to positive effects on economic performance. Using a novel autonomous region/country‐matched balanced sample for the period 1950–2016, we apply the synthetic control method and compare the economic growth trajectories of Spanish regions with their synthetic control groups not affected by the regionalization process. We show that the first wave of "Statutes of Autonomy" had a positive but temporary economic growth impact. By contrast, the second wave of regionalization of the 2000s is associated with a negative growth impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research article deals with the identification of positive externalities from road freight transport and their connection with economic growth. Data on the economic indicators of the Slovak Republic, its individual regions and the economic indicators of the European Union are processed and subsequently analysed. Examined positive externalities of road freight transport were selected based on the performed analysis. Most of the attention is paid to the negative effects of transport and the topic of positive externalities is rarely addressed, despite the fact that road transport and infrastructure have an undeniable positive impact on the economic growth of the country and the development of society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research aims to study and measure the impact of macro policies (monetary and financial) on the agricultural sector and economic growth in some Arab countries, namely (Saudi Arabia and Jordan), with special reference to Iraq. The research relied on the descriptive approach with quantitative analysis using the statistical program (Eviews10). The research included a time series over a period of thirty-one years (1990- 2020), where the co-integration mechanism and the error correction methodology (ECM) were used to find out the impact of some independent financial and monetary economic indicators on the variable value added of the agricultural sector of the sample countries, and then measure the value added of the agricultural sector. Estimated from the first model on the economic growth of the second stage v Using the two-stage method, in order to reach more accurate results, and one of the most important conclusions reached by the research is that all economic variables are stable at the first level and difference, so the ARDL autoregressive vector model was chosen to estimate the relationship between the long and short term variables. This model was used in order to know the nature of the relationship shown by the macro policies (financial and monetary) in the agricultural sector and the economic growth rates of all the sample countries, as it was found that the policies followed by the sample countries were ineffective. Which contributed to the low added value of the agricultural sector and thus reduced economic growth, especially in Iraq and Saudi Arabia as they are oil countries, while in Jordan the added value increased economic growth. The researcher recommended raising the efficiency of fiscal and monetary policies by relying on mechanisms that raise the agricultural added value, which in turn works to raise the economic growth rates of the sample countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given its tremendous natural resources, on the one hand, and its poor economic performance, on the other hand, the role of mining resources in the Guinean economy is often seen as a paradox. Guinea is one of the world's major bauxite producers for several decades. Based on this fact, this study aims to investigate the relationship between bauxite mining and economic growth in Guinea. We address this issue using both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models on annual data from Guinea over the period 1986–2020. Our results reveal that bauxite production has a positive impact on economic performance in Guinea. More precisely, the results indicate that, overall, bauxite production has a positive impact on both GDP and GDP per capita both in the short and long run. However, overall, this impact is statistically significant only in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An in-depth understanding of the relationship between R&D inputs and green economic development helps to build an eco-friendly society. Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2009 to 2017, this study explores the effect of R&D inputs on green economic development from the different perspectives of short-term and long-term and the moderating effect of market in the influence process. This study has concluded the following findings: (1) When considering multiple pollutants as undesirable outputs, China's green economic performance is low in recent years, and there exist great differences among different regions in green economic development. (2) R&D personnel and R&D expenditure can promote green economic performance under the moderation of the market. (3) R&D personnel is conducive to improving green economic growth, however, R&D expenditure has not shown an obvious effect on green economic growth in the short term. From the perspective of long-term, R&D personnel and R&D expenditure all can obviously improve green economic growth under the moderation of the market. Finally, this study puts forward targeted suggestions for promoting green economy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world needs to move quickly towards sustainability that should characterize all production and consumption patterns. The global economic growth which was built on natural resources and biodiversity over centuries has resulted in two main issues: environmental degradation and climate change. This created a big challenge in the recent decades related to balancing economic growth with environmental quality preservation, which has been a hot topic capturing the interest of researchers from different disciplines. One of the possible ways to reduce environmental degradation while enhancing economic growth is investing in human capital. This study investigates the determinants of ecological footprint as a proxy for environmental quality in Algeria from 1980 to 2017 using several economic indicators. Another objective of the present study is to assess how education and life expectancy as social indicators can influence the environmental quality. The autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) approach is used to estimate the constructed environmental degradation models. As expected, the obtained findings show that import is a significant factor that reduces ecological footprint in the long- and the short-run contrary to economic growth, energy use, export and natural resources rent. Moreover, the findings show that education and life expectancy increase environmental degradation in the short-run. However, while life expectancy keeps increasing environmental degradation in the long-run, education reduces it. In light of these findings, the current study provides several recommendations for better management of the country's natural and human resources, which could help policymakers in directing the country towards sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El articulo discute sobre lineamientos para facilitar la selección de un indicador económicos de ventajas comparativas reveladas (VCR) con el enfoque de la configuración de países, productos y períodos en Colombia. El articulo también se centra en la revisión sistemática de la integración económica y debilidades teóricas inherentes a los indicadores VCR, lineamientos de consideraciones teóricas y empíricas y equilibrio entre consideraciones del crecimiento económico.

Research background: Although some authors propose that economic growth should reduce crime rates as wider opportunities to earn money in a legal way diminish the incentives to commit illegal activities and lead to rising costs of the latter, the results of many studies indicate that an increase in crime rates is also possible under the conditions of economic growth. There are also differing views on the relationship between various economic indicators and crime rates as well as the nature of the relationship between the above-mentioned phenomena in the long and short run. Purpose of the article: After classifying the EU member states by their crime and economic indicators, the main objective of the article is to assess the relationship between the crime and economic development and identify the causes of this relationship. Methods: Systematic and comparative literature analysis, the Promethee and Entropy methods, Spearman's correlation coefficient. Findings & value added: The Promethee method, together with the Entropy method, were used to estimate the weights of the EU member states with respect to their crime and economic development indicators. The most pronounced differences were recorded in Portugal, Spain, and the Slovak Republic. The rankings estimated for the EU member states revealed that although economic situation affects crime rate, it can also be affected by the differences in cultural and political development. Scientific novelty lies in complementing the theory of the shadow economy with the results showing that compared to other crimes, corruption has the greatest weight when examining the relationship between economic development and crime. The practical significance of the research lies in classifying the EU member states into 4 groups with consideration of the relationship between crime and economic development, which may help public authorities to devise the target measures for the effective fight against crime given the nature of the relationship between crime and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study analyzes the impact of trade openness, human capital, and institutional performance on economic growth in OIC countries. The traditional methodologies of panel data ignore the issues of cross‐sectional dependence (CD) and heterogeneity and give spurious results. A novel econometric technique "dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE)" is used to tackle these issues. The long‐run estimates indicate that trade openness, human capital, and public expenditure have a positive and significant association with economic growth for higher‐income and overall OIC countries. However, trade openness has a negative, and human capital has an insignificant correlation with economic growth in lower‐income OIC countries. Institutional performance is positively correlated with economic growth in all groups of OIC countries. The study tends to support the call for the continuation of trade openness and human capital formation policies for overall and higher‐income OIC countries to get benefits in the form of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines tourism development and economic performance of some selected African countries (Kenya, Nigeria, and Tanzania) from 1999 to 2021 using a panel Pool Mean Group/Autoregressive distributed Lag (PMG/ARDL) model. Tourism development was represented by tourism receipt and number of tourists' arrivals while GDP represented economic growth. The result reveals that tourism receipts (TR) of the selected developing countries is statistically significant in explaining the variation in the growth of their economies. Hence, the study accepted the alternative hypothesis of the study and concluded that: there is a significant relationship between tourism receipts and economic growth of the selected developing countries. Tourism arrivals (TAR) to the selected developing countries is statistically non-significant, implying that it does promote growth in the selected countries. The long-term effect of tourism development according to our analysis shows some degree of productivity with adequate funding and development to sustain the present state of the economy. Tourism should be encouraged as a development strategy of these economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and tourism revenues in Turkey within the scope of the tourism-led growth hypothesis with the help of tests that take into account structural breaks. In this context, causality and cointegration tests based on the Fourier approach were used by considering the industrial production index, tourism revenues and real effective exchange rate monthly data for the January 2005-December 2019 period. The results of the causality test revealed that, unlike the Granger causality test, which does not take into account the structural break, the results of the Fourier causality tests that take into account the structural break have a unidirectional causality relationship from tourism revenues to economic growth. Similarly, contrast to the Johansen test, which does not take into account the break in the cointegration analysis, the Fourier Johansen test detected the existence of a long-term relationship between economic growth, tourism revenues and the real exchange rate. In addition, the long-term cointegration estimation showed that tourism revenues have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth. This finding indicates that tourism revenues are an important factor for economic growth and that investments and incentives in tourism will positively affect Turkey's economic growth performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, it is seen that studies on the strong relationship between political stability and economic growth have increased. Political stability is an important element in the policies that political actors or political parties will implement during their term of office. İn this study, 43 percent of the world's population and the world's economy is estimated to comprise 30% BRICS-T countries to investigate the relationship between political stability and economic growth performance is the main purpose of the study. For this purpose, the relationship between political stability and economic growth in the BRICS-T countries, which are among the developing countries, in the 1996-2020 period was tested with the panel data method. In the study, Durbin-Hausman cointegration tests were used for the cointegration relationship when determining the degree of stasis of variables with the second generation CIPS unit root test. Finally, the second generation AMG estimator test was used to determine the coefficient and direction of the long-term cointegration relationship of variables. According to the results of the analyzes, it was found that the impact of political stability, inflation and general government expenditures on economic growth in the BRICS-T countries is statistically significant and negative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different chronicles of the Byzantine Empire's history have noted various economic data gleaned from historical documents and accounts of the Empire's existence. I provide conjectures on approximate real GDP per capita for the Empire over its existence from AD 300 to 1453. I use these to investigate whether climate forcing variables are associated with real GDP per capita fluctuations. Some hypotheses on factors that would have affected Byzantine economic performance are tested using climate/environmental factors in time series regression. The results support and confirm some findings on how the Byzantine economy may have been affected by periods of regional climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that pathwise outward foreign direct investment can promote the long-term economic growth of developed economies and some developing countries with sufficient technology, human capital, and financial efficiency. However, the contribution of inverse outward foreign direct investment from developing countries, especially China, on the economic growth of developed economies has not yet been demonstrated. Based on the endogenous growth theory, this article uses panel data of China's inverse outward foreign direct investment and economic growth indicators of 26 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries from 2003 to 2017 to empirically study the contribution of China's inverse outward foreign direct investment to the economic growth of developed economies and its mechanism, and furthermore to study the mediation effect of research and development capital and technological advances in the contribution. The empirical results show that China's inverse outward foreign direct investment has a significant contribution to the economic growth of developed host countries, with a contribution rate of 3.01%. The contribution rate of the mediating effect is 24.3% when only considering technological advances and 54.34% when considering the multiple mediators of research and development capital and technological advances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates whether natural gas exploitation is a blessing or a curse for provincial and prefecture economic growth. This study employs regression models and synthetic control methods (SCM) to investigate the research question based on hybrid panel and time-series data from 1993 to 2015 from 14 prefecture cities in Sichuan province in China. Based on the provincial data of Sichuan, the regression results show that natural gas exploitation is a curse for the provincial economic development of Sichuan because of the negative associations between gas resources and economic performance, for which the increasing rent-seeking in the province may partially account. However, the SCM results find that the local economy of Dazhou city may benefit from its sufficient natural gas resources in the short run, but it is not sustainable. Meanwhile, the gas resource has no significant contributions to the regional economic growth of Sichuan overall, which is partially attributed to the fact that resource exploitation has no significant spillover effects on some sustainable contributors, such as education, innovation, and others. The practical implication for the economic governors is that the resource-consumed economic route is not sustainable, although it may drive local economic growth in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, studies have been conducted to quantify the relationship between microeconomic and macroeconomic development. Macroeconomics is the orientation of microeconomic development. Existing research hopes to quantify the relationship between macroeconomics and micro-firms, rather than just focusing on economic indicators. And some empirical studies try to use the relationship between them to discuss its usefulness for micro-firm decision-making. This article focuses on applying and developing aggregate earnings in connecting microenterprise earnings and macroeconomic development. To achieve this goal, this research did a comprehensive bibliometric analysis on macro-accounting on the two most influential databases, namely, Web of Science and Scopus. It used the information visualization software VOSviewer to draw knowledge maps to sort research lines. We also analyzed the research hotspots of macro-accounting in recent years according to the year scale and combined it with the neural network PSO-LSTM model to predict their future development. It turns out that the research on aggregate earnings related to economic growth has become a research hotspot in recent years. Scopus research and development potential is better than Web of Science in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between governance and economic development. Specifically, it empirically investigates what "good enough" governance means in post-Soviet Eurasia with an emphasis on Central Asia. The subject is crucial for international donors in terms of optimizing interventions to effect change. The findings shed some light not only on which governance dimensions are critical to secure economic growth but also on how much good governance is needed to yield developmental dividends. In this respect, the analyses confirm Grindle's hypothesis that not all governance dimensions affect economic performance. The evidence supports a more radical version of Grindle's argument, namely that political stability is the most crucial component in Central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need for economic development has preoccupied policymakers over the years. Especially the global south such as Nigeria, which is plagued with infrastructural deficit and less foreign direct investment and financial development attraction. This has drawn the attention of stakeholders and government officials for exploration of alternative routes for sustainable development, which is in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals‐8 (UNSDG's). Thus, the current study focuses on the FDI‐led economic growth hypothesis if it holds or not for the case of Nigeria. The present study is distinct from previous studies in terms of scope by incorporation of more covariates, which has seemed to have been overlooked in the FDI argument. To this end, the current study re‐investigates the connection between FDI, financial development, total labour force, gross capital formation, and economic growth using Nigeria as a representation for Africa and Sub‐Saharan states specifically. Annual time‐series data from 1970 to 2018 is adopted for the econometrics analysis. Our study interest variables are foreign direct investment, economic expansion (GDP). The present study inculcates two additional financial development indicators; from the banking, and financial sectors. Using a battery of unit root and stationarity tests the study explores the stationarity properties of the outlined variables. Subsequently, the novel and recent robust Bayer and Hanck (2013) combined cointegration test in conjunction with Pesaran's ARDL bounds test was used to investigate the equilibrium relationship and regression analysis. While the Toda‐Yamamoto Granger causality was used to detect the direction of causality analysis among the variables. Empirical investigation traces a long‐run equilibrium relationship among the variables over the sampled period. Furthermore, empirical results show that FDI influences GDP, which suggests that FDI influences economic growth which is indicative of policymakers. Similarly, empirical outcomes establish a significant relationship between GDP and Financial Development from banking‐sector which is also corroborated in the causality results as an indirect causality is seen running from GCF to the financial sector. These outcomes suggest that FDI and Financial development are good predictors for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. All aforementioned results have its inherent policy implications which are elucidated in the concluding remark of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causality between economic growth and government expenditure has long been a topic of interest among economists. Theoretically, Wagner's law claimed that economic growth (EG) contributes to government expenditure (GE), while the opposite causal nexus was claimed by Keynes. This study seeks to test the validity of these two theories by examining four versions of functional hypotheses and their reverse functions: Gupta, Peacock and Wiseman, Musgrave, and Mann. The main objectives include examining the nexus by comparing the developed versus developing countries, short-run versus long-run estimates, and the results between three estimators. The panel data regression applies the three estimators, which include pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG), and dynamic fixed effect (DFE). The datasets are collected from 1970 to 2018. The results detect both long-run and short-run relationships in the Gupta version and the Peacock and Wiseman version of Wagner's law, and also the reverse Gupta version and the reverse Peacock andWiseman version of Keynes' theory. To sum up, the two-way relationship between GE and EG exists in developing countries. On the other hand, Wagner's law and Keynes' theory are not valid in developed countries. The results imply that economic level matters, which leads to different linkages between EG-GE across groups of countries. Since the nexus exists in developing countries, policymakers should adopt fiscal policies to stimulate economic growth. With no GE and EG relationship found in developed countries, policymakers should focus on other economic indicators other than government expenditure to foster economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In developing economies, banks act as a conduit for the efficient mobilization of financial resources from the surplus sectors for effective allocation to the deficit sectors for productive investment that will in turn lead to economic growth. Thus, the study is aimed at evaluating whether development in the banking sector intermediation process in the form of an increase in the number of branches, credit to private sectors, intermediation efficiency and total assets stimulated economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1987-2018. The study employed the Johansen cointegration test, dynamic ordinary least square regression and error correction model in determining the relationship between the variables. The results of the cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between banking sector development indicators and economic growth in Nigeria; whereas in the short-run only number of bank branches and bank's total assets have a positive and significant impact on economic growth, signifying that much of Nigeria's superior growth performance is attributed to an increase in the number of bank branches and growth in the bank's total assets. Going by the above findings, the study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria should monitor the activities of Commercial Banks in terms of branch distribution to ensure a wider spread and even distribution and also review the asset base of banks from time to time so as to measure up to international standards in order to increase investment and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diversos estudios defienden la complejidad económica como modo alternativo de comprender el bienestar. Cada vez más trabajos parten del análisis envolvente de datos (DEA) estándar, pero no se encontraron estudios que los compararan con modelos más avanzados o que consideraran la sofisticación económica como insumo del desarrollo humano. El objetivo es cubrir esta laguna, comparando modelos DEA estándar y SBM como herramientas para medir la eficiencia de los países al convertir complejidad económica en desarrollo humano. Se elaboró el índice compuesto de desarrollo humano y complejidad económica (ICDH-CE), que se aplicó a 50 países con datos de 2013, y se concluyó que los modelos estándar sobrevaloran la eficiencia de los países, especialmente de los más desarrollados y prósperos. En cambio, los modelos SBM proporcionan una mejor clasificación. Finalmente, el ICDH-CE muestra que Singapur es la única economía que transforma de manera eficiente la complejidad económica en desarrollo humano. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using comprehensive flood data from China, we find a significant, negative impact of flooding on firm performance, which is mainly driven by unexpected flooding. We use multiple identification strategies to address endogeneity concerns and find that the documented impact of flooding on firm performance is likely causal. The impact is more pronounced for firms with more tangible asset investment, firms located in cities with low government quality, firms facing tight financial constraints, firms controlled by non-government entities and firms with low geographic diversification. Flood-exposed firms react to the threat by altering their investment, financial, cash, payout and executive compensation policies. Finally, flooding also exerts a significant impact on local economic and employment growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has significantly harmed numerous social and economic activities worldwide, drawing researchers and governments' attention to the problem and tackling it via persistent healthcare measures. The study's primary purpose is to examine the effects of total coronavirus cases, total fatalities, total recovered cases, unemployment, and trade openness on stock prices and economic growth in the world's top 39 affected nations. An analysis of the coronavirus outbreaks found that wealthier countries had a well-established healthcare infrastructure, but they were disproportionately affected by the virus. Conversely, the less wealthy nations had inadequate healthcare infrastructures, but they were not as affected as the wealthier countries. Is it possible to buy health with money? That was the question at the heart of the study's money-and-health curve. The robust least square regression results indicate that an increase in coronavirus cases influences economic growth and stock market performance due to massive healthcare funding distributed globally, sustaining economic and financial activities for a shorter period. However, a continuous increase in coronavirus fatalities depresses the stock market, resulting in financial depression worldwide. Additionally, a rise in overall coronavirus recovered cases has a negative effect on the country's economic development and stock market performance because of greater uncertainty in economic and financial activities. Case fatality ratios influence economic growth, whereas case recovery ratios decrease economic and financial performance due to greater healthcare concerns across countries. Finally, trade openness is critical in sustaining the country's economic development and stock market performance in the wake of the COVID-19 epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present study examines the effect of human capital accumulation and its influencing variables such as expenditure on education and quality of education, labor force, free trade and investment and its impact on economic development which can be measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product and GDP per capita. The data for the current study is comprised of economic indicators from almost 181 countries around the globe while using the panel technique. The outcome of the study suggest that enhancing the quality level of education through increasing the budget expenditure for education sector will result in capable work force which will in turn promote the economic growth of our country, similarly funds reimbursements towards fixed capital and free trade are also major determinants of economic development. The present study is also unique in terms of data collection from a vast number of countries to generate the empirical findings related to the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic inequality, in terms of income or wealth, is one of the most complex and perplexing challenges of our current capitalist economic system. While the dynamic relationship between income inequality and economic growth has been extensively investigated (since the beginning of the last century), the dynamic link between wealth inequality (or wealth concentration) and economic growth has been largely ignored in the literature, taking more attention in recent years. This paper asserts that the accumulation of non-productive assets/luxury goods is an important determinant of wealth inequality, as well as a determinant of the relationship between wealth inequality and economic growth. In this paper our aim is to show that an increase in wealth inequality is associated with a slowdown in economic growth. In particular, the paper shows that there is a negative relationship between wealth inequality and economic growth in France because poor households own a relatively large fraction of non-productive luxury goods. Nevertheless, this is not the case in the US, which is what explains that such negative relationship is not observed there. We conclude that a redistribution of wealth (from the rich to the poor) is important for attaining a sustained economic growth performance. • This paper contributes to the analysis of economic growth and wealth inequality in France and the United States. • We propose a macroeconomic model that includes both productive and non-productive assets. • Economic growth slows as the aggregate stock of non-productive assets increases as wealth inequality increases. • Redistribution will enrich the poorest households and therefore decrease their propensity to own unproductive assets. • Wealth inequality and economic growth may have a non-linear relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic growth is accepted as the ultimate goal of all economic activities for a nation. Because of this importance, it is the first economic indicator that comes to mind both in evaluating the success of national policies and in international comparisons. Recently, various machine learning approaches and artificial neural network models have been used in this field. The aim of this study is to reveal the sources of economic growth by using decision tree modeling, different from the literature. In this context, variables accepted as sources of growth in the literature such as savings, capital accumulation, labor, innovation, public expenditures, foreign trade, human capital, demographic factors, industrialization, and institutional factors are included in the analysis. The findings of the study present rules for economic growth and provide evidence that can be a reference to policy makers for high growth rates. The findings of the study reveal the importance of savings, innovation, exports and labor in stimulating growth in the Turkish Economy. The rules obtained for economic growth provide evidence that can be a reference for policy makers to ensure high growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions for a set of 98 countries over the lengthy period from 1951 to 2014. We describe the topology and hierarchy of countries and introduce a different concept of economic performance based on the idea of dynamic regimes. These regimes are defined by the average levels of per-capita CO2 emissions and the growth rates of per-capita GDP. By presenting a nonparametric clustering technique, the paper identifies two main groups. One cluster can be identified as the group of developed countries, which presents a homogeneous structure and tends toward more similar dynamics over time. The other cluster, associated with developing countries, is homogeneous but the dynamics of the countries do not show convergence. The study also finds some, though little, mobility between the groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the role of energy intensity, green economic factors, and blue economic factors to achieve sustainable economic growth in gulf countries. Additionally, we analyze the role of studied factors in view of Saudi Vision 2030. The findings of asymmetric ARDL report that labor and marine trade are the contributing factors of economic growth in gulf countries. However, the factors have improved in post-Vision 2030 estimations. The negative shocks in energy intensity leads towards sustainable economic growth. The positive shocks in renewable energy, grants, marine trade, and marine tourism are key factors for economic development. In country wide analysis, we recommend gulf countries need to widely focus on green and blue economic factors. For green indicators, research and innovation need extensive reforms to participate in sustainable economic development. In reviewing of the blue factors, we recommend reforms in fishery and marine tourism sectors. • The study uses panel asymmetric ARDL technique. • We investigate the role of energy, green and blue economic factors in GCC countries to achieve sustainable growth. • We confirm the significance of grants and marine trade in green economic indicators and blue economic indicators. • Post Vision 2030, marine tourism is playing its role in sustainable economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the increasing environmental pollution and efforts to alleviate the negative effects of global warming have raised the problem of using energy resources that cause CO2 emissions. Economic development andfurther economic growth accelerate the use of energy resources. This process causes a rise in the level of CO2 emission as well as the depletion of energy reserves. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate the optimal level of these three variables together in terms of decreasing CO2 emission, preserving energy, and improving economic performance. Therefore, this study aims to investigate whether there is a relationship between CO2 emission, energy consumption, and economic growth using data set from developed countries groups (the EU19, EU28, G7, G20, OECD-Europe, OECD-Total, BRICS, OECD-America and Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia). For this purpose, using the 2000-2018 data of developed countries, the preliminary estimation tests were used for panel unit root, Westerlund panel co-integration, and cross-section dependency. According to the unit root test results, variables that are not stationary at the level are found stationary taking their first differences. Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration test results show that there is cointegration among the variables and they move together in the long run. Further, Dimutrescu- Hurlin (2012) panel causality test results show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between CO2 emissions and growth, and a unidirectional causality relationship between energy consumption and growth, from growth to energy. The results of this study suggest prioritizing the improvement of energy efficiency in developed countries in terms of technology and making the implementation of joint action plans in environmentally friendly policies a priority for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ineffective governance is known to weaken support for governments and leaders. However, it is less clear whether these effects spill over to the regime and erode support for the democratic system. This article returns to this classic question, now using time-series, cross-sectional data to test whether the effectiveness of governments in sustaining economic growth, providing quality healthcare, and tackling violent crime affects popular attitudes to democracy. We find that satisfaction with democracy is driven by fluctuations in economic performance and violent crime (but not healthcare quality). Diffuse support for democracy, in contrast, remains relatively impervious to changes in government effectiveness. Violent crime is the only indicator of effectiveness which has an impact on democratic support, and does so indirectly, via its influence on democratic satisfaction. These findings confirm that democratic support—which, unlike democratic satisfaction, is thought to help sustain democracy—is mostly immune to crises of performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several scholars have suggested that political dividedness has harmful effects on economic performance. Interestingly, empirical tests tackling this argument are almost entirely absent. The paper aims to fill this gap by testing the above hypothesis using data from the European Social Survey, including 27 countries between 2002 and 2015. Controlling for a range of well-known explanatory variables, the results of the panel regression analysis suggest that partisan polarisation is adversely related to economic growth, while ideological polarisation is not. The finding is congruent with the hypothesis of polarisation having a notable negative effect on growth, yet future works are necessary to test both the direction and the possible channels of causality. As scholars increasingly describe contemporary politics as an era of growing polarisation, the results imply that partisan polarisation should deserve more attention from political scientists and economists as a factor that might influence economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the causality relationships among the economic freedom, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth for top FDI attracting countries during 1995–2019. Apart from the previous studies, we examine these three sets of causal links simultaneously and use the panel Granger causality test of Kόnya [2006. "Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach." Economic Modelling 23: 978–992], which considers heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency across panel members. The findings provide weak evidence for the causal links between economic freedom, FDI, and economic growth for the overall score of economic freedom index. We also conduct causality tests for freedom vs. FDI, freedom vs. growth, and FDI vs. growth by using sub-components of the freedom index and reveal too many causality linkages among these variables. Thereby, we conclude that the direction of causality seems to be country and economic freedom indicator specific. These results have important implications for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the role of nature and geography in determining economic and social outcomes. We propose a theoretical model relating geography and nature to economic growth, and examine that model using data from NUTS 2 European regions. By doing this, we identify the predictive power of first‐nature variables to explain regional population distribution. Then we analyze the effects of misadjustment between the actual and predicted distribution of populations on economic performance. Our results indicate that deviating from first‐nature outcomes has a significant negative effect on economic growth. The main policy implication emerging from our analysis is that strategies that harmonize with nature and geography yield better social welfare than those policies that conflict with them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]