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The Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global trade and supply chains, exacerbating the rise in global commodity and food prices. Persistently high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth brings fears of stagflation that could endure for several years. Amidst this environment, the US Federal Reserve and other advanced economy central banks sharply tightened monetary policy to curb inflation. This has translated into tighter external financing conditions and financial stress for some emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) as capital outflows have intensified. Despite global slowdown, Indonesia has experienced strong growth in 2022 thanks to commodity windfalls and a reopening of the economy. Indonesia’s external vulnerability has been low to moderate as strong exports have supported the external balance although tighter global finances have put some pressure on the capital account. Indonesia is projected to have a robust growth over the next three years though with significant downside risks emanating from the global economic environment. To address current macrofiscal policy challenges, the report highlights three policy and institutional areas that may warrant attention going forward. The first is about continuing with the implementation of tax reforms to broaden the tax base and improve compliance of business tax collection. The second is related to public spending where the authorities could over time move towards a rules-based pricing model for energy to contain subsidy pressures. The third is improving targeting and expanding coverage of existing social assistance and social insurance programs. This means filling coverage gaps, developing a system that provides a guaranteed minimum protection across the lifecycle, and strengthening delivery systems.

В настоящее время разрушительные последствия пандемии коронавируса нового типа COVID-19 и связанных с ней жестких ограничительных мер ставят перед налоговой системой России серьезные вызовы, включающие необходимость поддержки населения и бизнеса, а также возобновление экономического роста в постпандемический период., Currently, the devastating consequences of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and the associated severe restrictive measures pose serious challenges to the Russian tax system, including the need to support the population and businesses, as well as the resumption of economic growth in the post-pandemic period.

This study investigated the effect of tax reforms, economic growth and political environment on total tax, direct tax and indirect tax revenues using annual data for the period 1964-2016. Various techniques of analysis were employed: descriptive statistics, multi-segment regressions and non-linear regression. Results show that: all taxes responded positively to each of the tax reforms; changes in all taxes were affected by the reforms because GDP was also growing; economic growth has positive significant effect on all the categories of taxes; Government effectiveness has positive impact on indirect taxes; and that even though government control of corruption effect on tax revenues is statistically insignificant, it could promote the revenue generation more than economic growth. These findings have a number of policy implications: the government should put more emphasis on governance in order to promote revenue collection. Government effectiveness and control of corruption would go a long way to enhance tax compliance, reduce tax avoidance and evasion, eliminate illicit flows and reduce illegal collusion between tax payer and tax administrator that may deprive government of due revenues. Secondly, government must work towards designing and implementing in the reforms that make the tax system more buoyant, and link it more to economic growth.Key Words: Tax Revenues; Tax Reforms; Economic Growth; Governance/political environment; Budget Deficit; Public Debt.

Cameroon is a lower-middle income country with social indicators and levels of poverty which are below those for comparator countries. Large and rising inequalities between north and south, inefficiencies in public resource allocation and an adverse business environment explain this. While insecurity due to Boko Haram activities and rapidly rising public debt constrain efforts at poverty reduction, there exists a huge potential for economic growth and poverty reduction. This potential remains mostly untapped. Realizing it will require far reaching reforms, particularly with respect to the business environment and public financial management, and require politically courage to accomplish. The remainder of this document explores how to achieve the twin goals of ending poverty and improving shared prosperity by 2030 in a sustainable manner. The document identifies a limited number of binding constraints which would need to be lifted to achieve the poverty objective. The next four chapters present background material to chapter six, which presents binding constraints to poverty reduction. The micro-foundations to poverty reduction are discussed in chapters two and three. Chapter two discusses poverty, equity and vulnerability. Chapter three discusses human capital and its role in poverty reduction. Chapter four considers poverty reduction from a macro-economic perspective. It discusses opportunities for growth and economic transformation as well as the status of various cross-cutting economic services. Chapter five, considers governance, fragility and the institutional environment. Binding constraints to sustainable poverty reduction are identified in chapter six.

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) is designed to assess the key constraints and opportunities facing Mozambique as it strives to sustain robust growth and macroeconomic stability while accelerating poverty reduction and promoting greater economic inclusiveness. The SCD is organized into six chapters. Chapter two describes the evolution of poverty and inequality, explores their regional and demographic dimensions, and identifies strategies for accelerating poverty reduction. Chapter three analyzes key economic constraints and opportunities, identifying the drivers of recent growth, describing developments in the real sector and assessing emerging challenges associated with the rise of the extractive industries. Chapter four examines the inclusiveness of growth, presenting an in-depth analysis of the labor market, the social sectors and the ongoing urbanization process. Chapter five discusses fiscal, institutional, political, social and environmental risks to the sustainability of growth and poverty reduction. Chapter six completes the analysis by identifying a set of priority objectives for accelerating progress on the World Bank’s twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

The World Bank Group has come a long way in supporting structural reforms in its member countries. The most remarkable feature of its long 35 years and continuing journey has been its ability to listen, learn and adjust over time. It learnt relatively quickly that reform ownership is a necessary requirement for countries to support and sustain reforms. At the same time, it realized that reform implementation critically depends on credible institutions and good governance, which are frequently missing in its member countries, particularly the low-income ones. It also noted that over time the structure of reforms for promoting growth and development evolves, reflecting both changes in internal country conditions and a changing global environment. These important realizations are reflected in the evolution of the World Bank Group’s policies and practice for supporting structural reforms, and help sustain a culture of learning from experience.

The WBG’s Colombia Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) analyzed key constraints and opportunities that will impact Colombia’s development in the context of three defining country characteristics. They include uneven territorial development, a long standing armed conflict and a growth process led by extractive industries. The Colombia Country Partnership Framework (CPF) proposes to address these complex development challenges with a flexible, six-year (FY16-21) engagement that builds on the strong and trusted client relationship established over recent years. On the basis of client country demand, the development challenges highlighted in the SCD, and World Bank Group (WBG) comparative advantage, the CPF focuses on eight critical objectives to guide WBG engagement over the CPF period. These objectives are organized within three pillars of engagement: (a) fostering balanced territorial development; (b) enhancing social inclusion and mobility through improved service delivery; and (c) supporting fiscal sustainability and productivity. Cutting across all pillars, the CPF aims to ‘assist in constructing the peace’ in response to Colombia’s historic opportunity to reach a Peace Accord after more than 50 years of conflict.

Sri Lanka is in many respects a development success story. With economic growth averaging more than 7 percent a year over the past five years on top of an average growth of 6 percent the preceding five years, Sri Lanka has made notable strides towards the goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity (the ‘twin goals’). The national poverty headcount rate declined from 22.7 to 6.7 percent between 2002 and 2012/13, while consumption per capita of the bottom 40 percent grew at 3.3 percent a year, compared to 2.8 percent for the total population. Other human development indicators are also impressive by regional and lower middle-income country standards. Sri Lanka has also succeeded in ending decades of internal conflict in 2009 and steps have been taken towards reconciliation. Sri Lanka’s has had impressive development gains but there are strong indications that drivers of past progress are not sustainable. Solid economic growth, strong poverty reduction, overcoming internal conflict, effecting a remarkable democratic transition in recent months, and overall strong human development outcomes are a track record that would make any country proud. However, the country’s inward looking growth model based on non-tradable sectors and domestic demand amplified by public investment cannot be expected to lead to sustained inclusive growth going forward. A systematic diagnostic points to fiscal, competitiveness, and inclusion challenges as well as cross-cutting governance and sustainability challenges as priority areas of focus for sustaining progress in ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

The World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Egypt forFY15-19 has been prepared at an important juncture in Egypt’s history to support transformational changes to the economic and social space. It builds on the Government of Egypt’s (GOE) medium-term strategy and national priorities for economic development, responds to client demands, and is informed by consultations with a broad array of stakeholders in Egypt. At the same time, the CPF proposes selective interventions in line with the development priorities of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Egypt, and draws on the WBG’s comparative advantage. This program will also seek to implement the new MENA Regional strategy, especially the pillars on renewing the social contract, supporting economic recovery, and promoting regional cooperation. The CPF supports a transformative program to renew the social contract to support private sector job creation, social inclusion, and enhanced governance. The WBG is moving towards more than doubling its lending program compared to the recent past, to a total of about $8 billion over FY15-19, of which an indicative amount of about $6 billion is requested by the authorities to come from IBRD and about $2 billion from IFC. The actual volume and pace of IBRD lending will dependon the implementation of the program, including the ability to address macroeconomic risks, choice of instruments and economic performance in the course of the CPF period, continued Government interest in IBRD financing, and on IBRD’s lending capacity and demands from other borrowers. Similarly, the actual investments by IFC and guarantees by MIGA during the CPF period will depend on improvements in macroeconomic stability and progress in investmentclimate reforms that would boost investor confidence and facilitate greater private sector participation.

Twenty years after the end of the war, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has yet to achieve shared prosperity for its citizens and approach European living standards. The country has been at peace since the end of 1995, but its development model needs adjustment if it is to join the ranks of prosperous European economies. BiH has a disproportionately large public sector that dates back to Yugoslav times and has only been partly reformed since, and the constitutional arrangements under the Dayton and Washington Agreements had as their aim the cessation of war rather than the explicit goal of building a viable and efficient state. Financial inflows, particularly aid and remittances, have been fueling consumption-based economic growth. These inflows were important in post-war recovery, and propelled the country back to middle-income status. However, reaching high levels of income, creating prosperity and eliminating poverty will only happen if BiH shifts toward an economic model that builds on international integration, especially with the EU, BiH’s most important trading partner and anchor of institutional reform. BiH needs to rebalance its development model in two fundamental ways in order to succeed. First, it needs to unleash the potential of the private sector while reducing the footprint of the very large public sector. Second, the economy needs to shift from an inward focus driven by local consumption and imports to the potential of international integration through investments and exports. To achieve this country needs more (and larger) companies, vibrant small and medium sized enterprises and a business environment that allows them to grow and expand output, employment, and exports.

Between 2002 and 2012-13, most of the reduction in poverty was due to increased earnings, as opposed to higher employment or higher transfers. Although it is hard to be certain, increases in earnings are associated with: (i) a slow structural transformation away from agriculture and into industry and services that led to productivity increases; (ii) agglomeration around key urban areas that supported this structural transformation; (iii) domestic-driven growth, including public-sector investment that led to increases in labor demand, particularly in industry and services; and (iv) a commodity boom that led to higher labor earnings for agricultural workers in the context of lower agricultural employment. Sri Lanka’s has had impressive development gains but there are strong indications that drivers of past progress are not sustainable. Solid economic growth, strong poverty reduction, overcoming internal conflict, effecting a remarkable democratic transition in recent months, and overall strong human development outcomes are a track record that would make any country proud. However, the country’s inward looking growth model based on non-tradable sectors and domestic demand amplified by public investment cannot be expected to lead to sustained inclusive growth going forward. A systematic diagnostic points to fiscal, competitiveness, and inclusion challenges as well as cross-cutting governance and sustainability challenges as priority areas of focus for sustaining progress in ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

Effective environmental and social risk management in development policy financing (DPF) is central to achieving the World Bank’s goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. If the World Bank is supporting far-reaching member country reforms that are intended to contribute to the twin goals, then it should seek to understand the impact of those reforms on the poor. It should also ensure that the country’s natural capital and long-term growth prospects will not be undermined. The objective of this learning product is therefore to assess the application of the elements of the World Bank operational policy (OP 8.60) governing DPF related to the implementation of the environmental and social risk management requirements of the policy, and identify lessons learned and good practices. The focus of the study is on Bank actions, policies, procedures, and guidance for environmental and social risk management, based largely on a desk-based portfolio review of a large, random sample of development policy operations (DPOs), complemented by assessment of other relevant documents, and interviews with key stakeholders. This approach requires the Bank to determine whether specific policies supported by a DPO are likely to have significant poverty and social or environmental effects. The Bank emphasized the potential of OP 8.60 to promote positive environmental and social development from the time the policy was approved in 2004.

Colombia has made impressive strides in reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity during the last decade. Extreme poverty fell from 17.7 percent in 2002 to 8.1 percent in 2014, while total poverty (including moderate poverty) fell from 49.7 percent in 2002 to 29.5 percent in 2014. The decline implies that 6.2 million people left poverty in the period. The multidimensional poverty rate, which takes into account education, health, labor, childcare, and housing, has also experienced a remarkable decline from 49 percent in 2003 to 21.9 percent in 2014. The number of multidimensional poor declined by 9.8 million. Shared prosperity indicators followed a similar trend, especially after the second half of the decade. Between 2008 and 2013, the income per capita of the bottom 40 percent of Colombians grew at an average rate of 6.6 percent, significantly higher than the national average rate of 4.1 percent for the same period. Economic growth that led to job creation has been the main driver of poverty reduction and shared prosperity gains. The economy sustained an average GDP growth of 4.4 percent during the 2000s, almost 2 percentage points higher than the previous decade. For the period 2002-2013, economic growth explains 73 percent of the reduction in extreme poverty and 84 percent of the reduction in total poverty. Moreover, price stability, and in particular stable food prices contribute to poverty outcomes. As in the case of poverty reduction, labor income growth is the main determinant of shared prosperity in recent years in Colombia. Labor income represents at least fifty percent of income growth for the poorest 10 percent of the population, and up to 70 percent for those in the fourth decile, in the period 2008-2013. This evidence highlights the importance of high growth and low inflation for achieving the World Bank’s twin goals in Colombia.

The Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) Africa report describes the progress African countries are making on strengthening the quality of their policies and institutions. Some of the results from this report include: The overall quality of policies and institutions in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa was unchanged in 2014, but there was much variation in performance across countries. More than half the countries in the region saw a change in their policy environment: 10 countries experienced an improvement in their overall CPIA score, and an equal number saw a deterioration. There were divergent trends across policy clusters. Economic management weekend on the back of continuing fiscal policy slippage, as the sharp drop in commodity prices underscored weaknesses in the fiscal framework of several of the regions countries. By contrast, there was some strengthening in the governance cluster, with nine countries showing improvements in scores, more than twice the number of countries with declines. The greatest progress in this cluster was in the quality of budgetary and financial management.

This is the eleventh edition of the Kenya Economic Update. The special focus of this update examines the structural factors underpinning the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Drawing on recent firm-level data from the 2010 Industrial Census and the 2013 Enterprise Survey. It investigates the extent to which the sector's lack of dynamism reflects problems in Kenya's business environment, which compares poorly to regional neighbors' on several manufacturing-relevant dimensions. The report has four main messages: First, Kenya begins 2015 in a sound economic position. After growing an estimated 5.4 percent in 2014, its economy is poised to be among the fastest growing in the region, with growth projected at 6.0 percent in 2015, 6.6 percent in 2016, and 7.0 percent in 2017. Second, the external sector remains weak and vulnerable, as import growth continue to outpace export growth and short-term flows finance the current account deficit. The large deficit points to underlying structural weaknesses in Kenya's economy, which need to be addressed. Third, Kenya needs to increase the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector so that it can grow, export, and create much-needed jobs. As a share of GDP, Kenya's manufacturing sector has been stagnant in recent years, and it has lost international market share; lastly, the weak business environmentis a key constraint for the manufacturing sector. Obstacles to doing business affect this sector more than many others because manufacturing needs access to capital for investments, infrastructure to import inputs and export and distribute finished products, affordable and reliable electricity to produce, labor to man operations, and fair and streamlined regulations and trade policies that allow firms to compete.

This impact evaluation reviews the investment climate (IC) reform programs implemented by the World Bank Group (WBG) in Burkina Faso, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. It follows a study carried out in 2011 across the same countries. The purpose of the evaluation is to update, expand, and deepen the initial analysis within the framework of the earlier study, in order to gain a better understanding of the impact and sustainability of the IC reform activities implemented by the WBG. The evaluation covers a total of 25 IC-related projects implemented by the WBG in the five countries since the mid-2000s. The evaluation consists of three main elements, namely: a review of the outcomes achieved by the IC programs; an analysis of how IC reforms translate into impacts that is into tangible benefits for private firms and for the economy as a whole; and an assessment of the sustainability of IC reforms. The result is a significant improvement in the overall quality of the business environment in the five countries. This report is structured as follows: section one gives introduction. Section two provides an overview of the context in which the WBG programs were implemented, with a short presentation of the salient features of the five countries; section three briefly reviews the activities undertaken by each WBG program; section four analyzes the outcomes of the IC reform programs, with a review of the reforms supported, of the influence of these reforms on the business environment, and of the private sectors perceptions of IC reforms; section five reviews in detail the impact of IC reform programs, providing estimates of both direct impacts (cost savings) and indirect impacts (changes in enterprise formation and formalization, investment, and employment); section six analyzes the sustainability of IC reforms, with respect to both current and prospective sustainability and with an analysis of the main factors influencing sustainability; and finally, section seven summarizes the key findings of the evaluation.

KEY ISSUES Context. Guatemala’s economy has performed solidly since the 2008–09 crisis. Output has converged to potential, inflation is under control, and macroeconomic policies remain prudent. However, risks to the outlook are tilted downwards, while buffers are modest and space for counter-cyclical policies is thin. Long-term inclusive growth is constrained by low investment in physical and human capital, institutional weaknesses, and lack of security. Near-term policies are broadly appropriate. With the output gap closed, the broadly neutral fiscal stance is adequate. The monetary stance is slightly expansionary, but inflation is at the bottom of the target range. The authorities should stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflationary pressures re-emerge. Fiscal sustainability should be enhanced over the medium term. Though the debt-to- GDP ratio remains moderate, the ability to implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies is limited, not least by Guatemala’s high government debt-to-revenue ratio. Debt stabilization requires moderate tightening of the budgetary stance over the medium term. The emphasis should be on revenue mobilization, given the overall low level of spending. Consolidating gains from the 2012 tax reform, which has so far proved disappointing, will be critical. Efforts to upgrade the monetary and exchange policy framework should continue. Anchoring low and stable inflation will require measures to bolster monetary policy transmission, including by expanding exchange rate flexibility. This should provide an additional shock absorber and reduce incentives for dollarization. It would also establish the inflation target as the undisputed primary objective of the central bank. Further strengthening of the financial system is necessary. The 2014 FSAP update found that Guatemala has made significant progress in financial regulation and that the banking system appears to be generally sound. However, efforts are still needed to improve consolidated supervision and the regulation of off-shore banks. The time is also ripe for a phased move to Basel III standards. Structural reforms are vital to achieving long-term inclusive growth. Paving the way towards high, inclusive growth will depend upon raising the low tax-to-GDP ratio to support priority public spending, thereby addressing critical social and developmental needs.

This Selected Issues paper describes the current tax system in Bhutan and suggests options for tax policy reform. Though significant hydropower revenues are expected in the medium term as major projects come on-stream, reforms to the existing tax system in the interim will generate fiscal room and prevent recourse to domestic debt to finance development needs. Key reforms include reducing tax exemptions in the near term and introduction of value-added tax in the medium term. The paper also analyzes the adequacy of international reserves in Bhutan using a customized risk-weighted metric. The results indicate that Bhutan’s reserve levels are ample.

This report’s starting point is thus to acknowledge that despite Sweden’s many virtues, there are areas in which it can do better, and the task has been to identify those areas, focusing particularly on the quality of the investment climate and competitiveness. This has been done in two main ways. First, by looking at areas of the business environment captured by databases compiled in the World Bank Group’s Global Indicators Group—Doing Business, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Regulations, and Women, Business and the Law. And second, by examining other critical areas where there is a large body of data, knowledge and insight that casts relevant light on several key policy challenges facing the country in coming years. In the paragraphs that follow we present a summary of the report’s main conclusions.

The paper discusses the economic developments and policies in Sri Lanka in recent years. Substantial adjustments in energy prices and operational and financial reforms have helped to improve the performance of state owned enterprises (SOEs) and have reduced the burden on the budget and the banking system. Despite challenging global and domestic market conditions, overall soundness of the financial sector has improved with higher levels of capital, liquidity, and healthy earnings. The Sri Lankan economy is expected to return to a high growth trajectory, though conditional on recovery in external demand.

A strong policy framework and improved income distribution and social outcomes have been important accomplishments in Brazil. The 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that financial stability in Brazil has been underpinned by a strong banking system and framework for regulation and supervision. Executive Directors have commended authorities’ commitment to a strong policy framework, which has delivered a decade of macroeconomic stability and rising living standards. They have also welcomed the recent reorientation of the policy mix toward generating fiscal savings and providing monetary countercyclical support.

In Tonga, the fiscal position has strengthened but vulnerabilities remain. Directors have welcomed Tonga’s recovery from the global crisis but noted remaining vulnerabilities and a high debt burden. With downside risks clouding the outlook, Directors have emphasized the importance of strengthening policy buffers and the foundation for faster and more inclusive growth. Directors have also encouraged the authorities to implement their fiscal plans within a medium-term framework and to improve further the quality of public spending to meet Tonga’s development objectives.

Facility for Investment Climate Advisory Services (FIAS) Since investment climate reforms in developing countries started gaining traction in the 1990s, most efforts have focused on issues at the national level, achieving varying degrees of success for reasons that are relatively well understood. This handbook provides an overview of efforts and achievements in subnational investment climate reforms. It is organized as follows. Chapter 2 reviews a number of countries experiences with subnational reforms, noting both success stories and disappointments and pointing toward lessons learned. Chapter 3 sets out the basic principles of subnational revenue, including business taxation. Chapter 4 describes sound licensing practices for subnational governments, including establishing licensing fees. Chapter 5 provides recommendations for subnational reform projects where both the regulatory authority and taxation require attention, which is the most common situation. Finally, the Appendix offers nine case studies covering subnational reform efforts in the following countries: Canada (British Columbia), The Russian Federation, China, Kenya, Tanzania, Peru (Lima), The Balkans (Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina), Tajikistan, and Zambia.

Japan has responded swiftly to stabilize markets, and activity has begun to recover. The immediate priority is to repair damaged infrastructure and facilitate a swift recovery. Financial policies should protect against the risk of an economic slowdown and higher market volatility. Timely implementation of the government’s growth strategy would help sustain fiscal adjustment and support the recovery. Japan is an important contributor to regional growth and stability. Despite the adversity caused by the earthquake, Japan continues to demonstrate its strong commitment to international cooperation.

Tanzania has weathered the adverse shocks of recent years relatively well. Revenue collection for 2010–11 has fallen short of targets, constraining public spending and contributing to the emergence of arrears. Monetary policy has become less accommodative. The near-term economic outlook is subject to a higher-than-average degree of uncertainty with a rising risk of donor aid shortfalls and higher international fuel prices. Over the medium term, growth could gradually rise to 7½ percent––thanks to large investments in mining and continued growth in the non-mining economy.

The firming of the economic recovery is putting the policy spotlight back on the longer term challenge of faster, more inclusive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Modest investment rates despite attractive returns and low savings rates despite favorable demographics are important impediments. A virtuous cycle of faster capital accumulation, job creation (especially for the youth), and technological advancement needs to be stimulated. There are no quick fixes that can produce the desired stimulus. The quest for inclusive growth calls for a different, bolder approach. Integration of the advanced and less-developed economies and more effective integration with the global economy, using factory Southern Africa as a platform, hold considerable potential. South Africa's medium-term growth prospects point to a strengthening recovery. GDP growth is projected to be 3.5 percent in 2011, 4.1 percent in 2012 and 4.4 percent in 2013. The long term potential growth rate under the current policy environment is estimated at 3.5 percent. In light of South Africa's low national savings, the reemergence of high current account deficits, financed mostly through volatile portfolio flows, will reemerge as the biggest cause for macroeconomic concern over the medium term. With considerable strengthening of the economic recovery and GDP projected to reach its potential by 2014, the focus shifts back to the longer term challenge of raising GDP growth to 6-7 percent and making it much more inclusive to tackle the extremely high unemployment. This first issue is anchored in the national aspirations of faster and more inclusive growth, with special emphasis on the issues of savings and investment.

This paper reviews the annual progress report on Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Republic of Congo. The adoption of the PRSP in March 2008 was followed by adoption of the Operational Action Plan for implementation of the PRSP. The poverty reduction strategy is being implemented in an international economic context marked by a severe economic and financial crisis. The government has also undertaken significant structural administrative reforms with a view to improving political governance.

This paper discusses key findings of the Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for The Gambia. Recent performance under the ECF-supported program continued to be broadly satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria for end-September 2009 were achieved, except for the fiscal target, and there was good progress on the structural agenda. IMF staff recommends approval of the authorities’ request for a waiver for the nonobservance of the fiscal performance criterion based on corrective actions, notably the government budget for 2010 approved by the National Assembly with a near-zero basic balance.

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Zambian economy has performed well in recent years and showed some resilience to the recent global recession. Growth in 2009 is now projected at 5.3 percent, in line with the average for recent years, as the slowdown in the tertiary sector was compensated by a significant increase in copper production and a bumper crop. Executive Directors have commended the Zambian authorities for their prudent macroeconomic management, observing that the Zambian economy has proven resilient to the global economic crisis.

Costa Rica’s economy has been hit hard by the global crisis, but active policies have helped preserve stability and mitigate the negative impact on growth. This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite the worsening of economic activity, the banking sector has remained sound. Although the nonperforming loan ratio of banks has risen moderately and profitability declined in the first half of 2009, liquidity and solvency indicators remained adequate. Fiscal policy has provided significant support to domestic demand.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines’s financial system has been largely unaffected by the global financial crisis. The report examines St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2009 Article IV Consultation and request for Disbursement under the Rapid-Access Component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility. The global economic downturn has led to a significant decline in tourism, which worsened the balance of payments position and, together with lower foreign direct investment and construction activity, led to a sharp output slowdown in 2008.

This paper discusses a request from the Guatemalan authorities for an 18-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with total access of SDR 630.6 million (about US$951 million). Guatemala has a strong track record of macroeconomic stability. The economy is open and hence vulnerable to external shocks. The authorities have taken a number of upfront measures to mitigate the impact of the external shock and preserve macroeconomic stability. The program will support the authorities’ policies and provide insurance against significant downside risks.

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that GDP per capita for Papua New Guinea remains low. An unattractive investment environment, primarily owing to weak infrastructure, problems with governance, and high crime curtails development. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for saving the bulk of recent windfall mineral revenues and repaying public debt to improve the external debt position. They have also acknowledged the authorities’ policy of slowing exchange rate depreciation to moderate inflationary pressures.

High labor tax wedges and slow formal employment growth have combined to make labor tax reform an important economic policy issue in Turkey. This synthesis report presents the results of a series of empirical studies of the impact of a labor tax reform. The analysis was undertaken before the social contribution reforms that were introduced as part of the 2008 employment package. Using data from firms, households, and social insurance files, the research finds that employment does respond to changes in labor costs at levels that are comparable to those found in other middle-income and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The results show that reducing labor costs could significantly boost registered employment. However, the actual effect of lower taxes on employment would be diluted because a significant portion of the reduced tax will be captured by workers through higher wages rather than by employers through lower labor costs. As a result, tax cuts targeted towards low-wage labor would be more cost-effective than across-the-board reductions. To achieve overall fiscal neutrality, compensating additional revenues from other sources or reduced expenditures will be needed to accompany lower contribution rates.

Finland’s 2008 Article IV Consultation shows that spillovers from the global turmoil are adversely affecting activity and may weaken the financial system. From a cyclical perspective, a fiscal structural loosening is warranted. Its effectiveness in Finland’s small, open economy would be limited in the absence of an EU-wide fiscal package. The authorities have been confident that an EU-coordinated budget expansion is in the works. There has been agreement that loosening should be designed to minimize damage to long-term fiscal sustainability.

Low tax revenue and slow economic growth are two central concerns in developing countries. However, policies that raise tax revenue also harm economic growth. With tax revenue coming mainly from large capital-intensive firms, and with a large informal sector, policies that aid large firms and policies that discourage entry of new firms both help increase tax revenue. Entrepreneurial activity as a result is discouraged, lowering growth. There is a basic tension in policy design between current tax revenue and economic growth. In fact, a loss in tax revenue can itself reduce growth, due to less spending on education and infrastructure. It can also undermine political support for the reforms from the poor and from government bureaucrats, both of whom are key beneficiaries of government expenditures. What policies encourage growth without undue loss of current expenditures? One is debt finance, but this creates the risk of a financial crisis if tax revenue rises too slowly to repay this debt. A second is user fees, but such fees still undermine political support from the poor. A third is partial reform, maintaining both higher taxes on and some protection for easily taxed firms, even while barriers to entry are eased.

The World Bank’s assistance strategies showed strong client orientation and were aligned with Uganda’s poverty reduction strategy. The programs were substantially effective in decentralization, public sector reform, growth and economic transformation, education, and water and sanitation. However, more could have been done to help counter the perception of increasing corruption, improve power supply, reduce transport costs, enhance agricultural productivity, and help with family planning and reproductive health. The AfDB’s assistance was also relevant and aligned with the government’s development goals. Its support substantially achieved its objectives for decentralization, public sector finance, growth and economic transformation, improved competitiveness, agriculture, and water and sanitation, as well as education and health. However, there were some shortcomings in the assistance provided for power and roads and in reducing corruption. This report evaluates World Bank and African Development Bank assistance to Uganda during 2001-07. The motivation to undertake a joint evaluation was the shift to a common strategic framework, the Uganda Joint Assistance Strategy (UJAS), to guide the formulation and delivery of their programs. Under a common strategic framework joint evaluation is, in principal, more cost effective than the equivalent separate evaluations, since at least some aspects of the evaluation can be done together. This also helps to reduce government transaction costs. The evaluation discusses the outcome of the support of each bank, rates each independently, noting that the two banks are of different size, capacity, and institutional setting. In addition, the two banks have programs that were not implemented jointly but in parallel, although they regularly engaged with one another as development partners. The outcome ratings for the two institutions are therefore not comparable and should not be used to imply that one institution did ‘better’ than the other.

The world faces unprecedented opportunities to reduce global poverty and improve human welfare. Strong global growth and better economic policies in recent years have substantially reduced poverty in many developing countries. However, with the recent financial turmoil in the United States and rising prices for food, oil, and other commodities, the world economy faces heightened risks and volatility. Policymakers around the world face the challenge of maintaining momentum in growth, as well as of improving the quality of growth. This concern over quality is reflected in the highly uneven reduction in poverty, rising inequality in numerous countries, and widening environmental degradation during the past decade, a period of unprecedented high economic growth in developing countries. Unless these issues are confronted, gains from growth are likely to be undermined and the pace of growth, itself, will not be sustained. Growth is clearly linked to reductions in poverty. But the strength of this relationship depends on the quality or nature of growth. Various studies show that some growth patterns systematically reduce poverty and inequality, but others do not. And some growth patterns lead to underinvestment in human capital, overexploitation of natural resources, and degradation of the environment, patterns inimical to the sustainability of growth.

This paper provides an extensive case study of the Turkish automotive and the consumer electronics industries. Despite a macroeconomic environment that inhibits investment and growth, both industries have achieved remarkable output and productivity growth since the early 1990s. Although there are similarities between the performances of the two industries, there are significant differences between their structures, links with domestic suppliers, technological orientation, and modes of integration with the global economy. The automobile industry is dominated by multinational companies, has a strong domestic supplier base, and has seized the opportunities opened up by the Customs Union by investing in new product and process technology and learning. The consumer electronics industry is dominated by a few, large, domestic firms, and has become competitive in the European market thanks to its geographical proximity, productive domestic labor, and focus on a protected and technologically mature segment of the market, which also helps explain the recent decline in industry's fortunes. These industries could have performed even better had more responsive macroeconomic policies been adopted. It is certain that governments could be more responsive only if far-reaching political/institutional reforms are undertaken by changing the constitution and current political party and election laws in order to establish public control over the political elites.

Debates over the nature and direction of economic policy in Iran have intensified rather than abated after the tumultuous changes brought about by the revolution in 1979. In the span of these three decades, Iran has witnessed sweeping institutional changes and has been affected by significant economic and political upheavals. At the macroeconomic level, too, there have been a number of shocks ranging from oil booms and busts, to war (with Iraq), trade sanctions, and internal political strife. This paper uses Iran's experience to reflect on growth and development in the context of political upheaval and an uncertain institutional environment. It is a premise of the paper that Iran's recent past presents a rare, 'laboratory' like, case for the study of growth and development in a broad context. This paper examines post-revolutionary Iran's macroeconomic policies and performance in a comparative context, appraising it against Iran's past trends and real potential. It shows how recurrent cycles of populism and pragmatism have characterized this period. The paper argues that two sets of factors have conditioned Iran's performance and will continue to taint her prospects for sustainable growth into the future. These are: (i) Iran's limited economic diversification and continued dependence on the oil sector, and (ii) the institutional setting in which post-revolutionary economic policies have been formulated and implemented for much of the last three decades.

The real exchange rate was not at the center of the first generation of neoclassical growth models, nor was it prominent among the policy prescriptions that flowed from those models. Recent analyses, in contrast, have paid it more attention. This paper analyzes the role of the real exchange rate in the growth process, the channels through which the real exchange rate influences other variables, and policies useful (and not useful) for governing the real rate. An appendix provides econometric evidence supportive of the emphases in the text.

This paper discusses key findings of the 2006 Regional Discussions on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. Fiscal revenues have improved, but there has been only a modest improvement in the fiscal and debt positions. Tax revenues have strengthened with the uptick in economic activity, administrative efforts, and tax reforms. The financial system has been resilient, but additional efforts are needed to strengthen the supervisory framework in the face of emerging risks. Progress continues to be made in implementing the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) recommendations, but there is a need to ensure enforcement of the new regulatory framework.

This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PARPA) for the Republic of Mozambique highlights the poverty situation and macroeconomic and fiscal frameworks. The strategy to consolidate macroeconomic stability and accelerate the second wave of reforms in PARPA II should facilitate sustained broad-based growth and poverty reduction. A good investment climate is essential for the development of the private sector, thereby fostering broad-based growth and employment creation. There is a need to develop systems for a timely delivery and improved dissemination of key results to the public.

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Nigeria. All assessment criteria through end-September were met except for one civil service-related measure. Remedial measures have prevented the civil service reform program from being compromised. Four structural benchmarks, including two privatizations, were delayed. Against the backdrop of improved macroeconomic performance and large oil wealth, focus is on achieving the Millennium Development Goals including through increased infrastructure spending. Targeted spending in the Niger Delta could help restore stability and boost Nigeria’s economic growth.