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The relevance of the problems investigated in the article is determined by the fact that the world economy fragmentation worsens its dynamics, but its actual fragility became relevant after the global crisis of 2008–2009. In this regard, developing countries are increasingly characterized by extreme risks associated with the global markets’ instability – not only commodity markets, but also financial ones, where the innovative derivatives expansion has increased the speculators’ role, thereby making commodity markets more volatile. The overall situation is aggravated by debt problems in many countries. The purpose of the study is to investigate the nature and extent of the debt burden that has developed in the global economy in recent years and to assess the key challenges facing the monetary policies of countries around the world in order to counter the rising debt burden. The main results of the study include the assessment of the scale and nature of the debt burden in terms of its negative impact on global economic development, identification of the relationship between the business cycle passage and the debt accumulation in foreign countries, as well as the main directions of prospective monetary policy that will contribute to the debt burden reduction in the foreseeable future.

From the perspective of economic cycle, this paper describes the failure mechanism of the associated credit risk contagion among enterprises by constructing a cascade effect model, and further simulates and analyses the anti-credit risk capability of the enterprise network. It is found that the anti-credit risk capability of the associated enterprise network is enhanced with the increase of enterprises redundant resources. In the process of the prosperity and development of the economic cycle, the credit risks encountered by large enterprises are more likely to cause cascade effect in the enterprise network. This paper expands the application scope of the cascade effect model, and provides a new perspective for enterprises to manage and control credit risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research was to study the influence of related variety on the economic performance of Spanish provinces during the international crisis (2009–2013) and the post‐crisis period (2014–2018), with the goal of contributing to assess the validity of the skill‐relatedness approach. The research is based on labor flows in a sample of more than one million affiliated workers. Our results confirmed the influence of related variety on the growth of GDP and employment in knowledge‐based industries, in protecting against unemployment, as well as on the creation of new firms, although with marked differences according to the economic cycle. Robustness issues and possible lines of progress using this novel methodology are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantitatively analyze the relationship between China's energy consumption, energy efficiency and economic cycle from the perspective of periodic fluctuations. Through HP filter analysis, the following main conclusions are drawn: First, the relationship between China's energy consumption and output is nonlinear. Second, before the reform and opening-up, China's output-energy efficiency changed greatly. After the reform and opening-up, the long-term trend has become relatively stable, while in the short term, the output-energy efficiency is more likely influenced by fluctuation factors. Third, from 2002 to 2005, fluctuations led to the decrease of output-energy efficiency in such industries as agriculture, industry, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing and the wholesale, retailing and lodging; and from 2010 to 2015, the overall output-energy efficiency was improved in such industries as agriculture, industry, manufacturing and the wholesale, retailing and lodging, mainly contributed by the trend factor. Based on these findings, we believe that long-term and short-term factors must be sorted out when preparing policy objectives and means for energy efficiency. From the perspective of sector-based analysis, the loss of energy efficiency is more attributed to short-term fluctuation factors, thus maintaining a stable economy is conducive to improving energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the concerns arising from climate change, countries, regions, and organizations worldwide have developed and implemented policy frameworks and measures aimed at addressing the challenges posed by climate change. However, the implementation pathways of these policies may entail significant uncertainties, presenting challenges to economic development. This study uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to examine the influence of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on the U.S. economic cycle. The economic cycle variables are extracted from four popular economic indicators based on the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. The results show that CPU changes effectively impact economic cycle, and a positive CPU shock can trigger negative reactions in the economy (recession) in the subsequent period. Moreover, we find that CPU changes are a Granger cause of the economic cycle and have good prediction classification performance for economic expansions and recessions. We provide new insights into the relationship between CPU and the economic cycle for policymakers. • Economic cycle can be extracted in economic indicators by using Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. • The Climate Policy uncertainty (CPU) change effectively impacts U.S. economic cycle. • The positive CPU shock can trigger the economic recession in the subsequent period. • The CPU change is a Granger cause of economic cycle and predicts economic boom and recession well. • Providing new insights to policymakers on the relationship between CPU and economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes the linkage relationships between the economic cycle and the domestic tourism cycle in Mainland China and Taiwan. The Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model is used to test the relationship between periodic variables. The results show that the domestic tourism cycle and the economic cycle of Mainland China have a reverse fluctuating trend and that in Taiwan, the domestic tourism cycle is synchronized with the economic cycle. Results support that the linkage relationships between the economic cycle and the domestic tourism cycle are different in two economies which has fundamental difference in the development stage and economic institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops evidence for the study of the opening of business and employment flows. A statistical and econometric analysis of the productive sector of the region of México is presented. It found that the recent growth of opening businesses is explained not by market opportunities or innovations, but by the recession push factor. Unemployment that occurs in larger companies has the effect of incentive the opening of businesses on the micro-scale, from entrepreneurs by necessity. These self-employment mechanisms are the source of mitigation of the effects generated in recessive periods, how in the case of the Colima state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The manufacturing industry is a key sector in many national economies and is involved in creating sustainable economic growth. At the same time, it is a sector sensitive to internal and external impacts that result in fluctuations in the economic cycle, copying its development or even outstripping the development of economic cycles. The main objective of this contribution was to identify the relationship between manufacturing and GDP, which represents the economic cycle in European Union countries. The time series of selected indicators of the manufacturing industry and GDP from the Eurostat database for Q1 2000-Q4 2016 were used for analysis purposes. An analysis of 296 time series with a quarterly periodicity from 22 EU countries (including the United Kingdom) was performed. The results of analyses indicate that the processing industry is a sector with significant cyclical behavior. In most countries, production and sales in the manufacturing industry behaved as concurrent indicators, changes in production and sales almost immediately reflected in the growth or decline in GDP. Labor market indicators have been shown to be delayed cyclical indicators. Changes in the economic development of the countries have a strong impact on employment, the remuneration of employees and the number of hours worked in the sector. Strong cyclical industries must be constantly monitored, as negative changes in these sectors will automatically exacerbate the economic cycle recession. The results of our analyses represent a valuable platform for economic policy makers and regional strategic plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economic Annals-XXI / Ekonomìčnij Časopis-XXI is the property of Institute of Society Transformation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper is devoted to the analysis of the impact of changes in the level of economic growth on the volumes deciding about the condition of public finances. The main hypothesis put forward in the paper is the assertion that the changes of the economic situation affect substantially the state of public finances, causing changes on the level of revenues and expenditures of public sector. The second hypothesis is the assertion that fiscal policy in Poland, in the analyzed period, was of a passive nature. The paper contains data analysis of the period between 2007 and 2015 provided by the Central Statistical Office with the use of correlation rates. Statistically significant negative dependence was observed between GDP growth and expenditures of the State budget, total public debt and government sub-sector debt. Such results indicate the dominance of passive fiscal policy during the analyzed period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is among the most important activities in the Spanish economy, with Spain being one of the most significant tourism destinations worldwide. The external contribution of the international demand for tourism in Spain is a factor that must be taken into account, particularly when assessing the cyclical behaviour of tourism activities and therefore the contribution made by this sector to the overall economy. For this reason, the article examines the evolution of tourism in Spain during recent years, its contribution to economic growth and its level of external dependence using an analysis methodology which examines the cyclicality of the demand for the economy and the primary components of tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity consumption is a barometer of the economic development, and they also present a strong positive correlation relationship. Economic development also shows a certain periodicity pattern by the cyclical shocks, because of the relationship, Electricity consumption also have the similar periodicity pattern. This paper studies the relationship between electricity consumption cycle and economic cycle, and finds the grander causality relationship of the electricity consumption cycle and economic cycle. An example of the economic growth rate and electricity consumption rate of China is shown that the electricity consumption cycle exists in one year period lag behind the economic cycle. The result will help interpret the interaction between economic development and electricity consumption and offer a more coordinated way to develop the ecological economic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Firms in the construction industry have always had to deal with the challenges of the economic cycle and develop strategies to deal with the resulting fluctuations in their business environment. In the context of the 2008–2011 double-dip recession in the UK, the results of a survey targeting the top one hundred construction companies in the UK are reported here. This research is particularly intended to assess whether the strategies of large companies in the construction sector, when faced with the issues associated with the variation in the economic cycle, have changed since the previous business cycle (i.e. the 1986–1990 boom followed by the 1990–1991 recession). The survey reveals the challenges that companies have faced, reports on company behaviour and on the policies adopted. While there are many similarities between policies adopted during the recessionary periods of the two cycles, the research found notable changes in attitudes towards diversification, human resource management and price bidding. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The aim of this article is to determine the relation between the phases of the business cycle and changes in prices of factors of construction production. The research covers the years 1994-2012. The dataset applied in the study includes yearly data on prices of the factors of construction production in Poland. All of these data were made available by the SEKOCENBUD. The implementation of the purpose of the study required, firstly, to construct the curve of the economic cycle in the Polish construction industry and, secondly, to determine indicators of changes in the prices of construction production factors and to compare them with the curve reflecting the state of the economic cycle in the construction industry. It was based on the results of a monthly economic situation test, which are published by the Central Statistical Office in Warsaw. A record increase in the prices of production factors in construction was observed during the recovery in 2006-2007. It was caused by the intensified demand for various types of construction services. The deep slump in the construction industry was accompanied by a slight reaction of changes in the prices of construction materials and equipment to the decreasing demand in 2002-2004 and 2008-2012. The results of the study allow to conclude that changes in the prices of production factors in construction are closely related to the situation in the sector, but this relationship is particularly noticeable in the growth phase of the cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In this work we approach the economic cycle starting from the economic system concept. The extreme implication of numerous contradictory events, the influence of contrary fields makes the compass of a company not to indicate permanently the direction to be taken. It appears then a decline period. New piloting instruments have to come out in view of discerning the tendencies of the future through the fog that becomes thicker and thicker. The echo perceived could be one precise signal for working out of a strategic mission in the future. Strategic selections imparts new tendencies to the creating forces of the companies, modify affecting of resources and generates structural changes that are the sine qua non conditions for development reactivating of the system. In other words, this is the continuous adapting of the systems to the environment mutations. On this way the system becomes to an ascendant trend and it is created the economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of economic growth is, as is known, the basic engine of increasing the living standard. The importance of growth in the market economy is revealed by the association of a process compatibility of economic strength of a country with increasing wealth and welfare. Due to the complexity of the concept of economic growth, its expression can be done through a system of indicators to allow more accurate assessment, an analysis of the evolution. Growth results can be measured through a series of synthetic indicators including: gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national product (GNP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953–2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function based on the vector autoregression model to investigate the relativity between economic development and occupational accidents in China from 1953 to 2008. Owing to fluctuation and growth scale characteristics of economic development, two dimensions including economic cycle and economic scale were divided. Results showed that there was no relationship between occupational accidents and economic scale during 1953–1978. Fatality rate per 105 workers was a conductive variable to gross domestic product per capita during 1979–2008. And economic cycle was an indicator to occupational accidents during 1979–2008. Variation of economic speed had important influence on occupational accidents in short term. Thus it is necessary to adjust Chinese occupational safety policy according to tempo variation of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Management / Vadyba (16487974) is the property of Lithuania Business University of Applied Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revue Tiers Monde is the property of Librairie Armand Colin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of this paper, which is part of a broader research project, is to analyse the fluctuations of output in a framework of imperfect competition based on the stylised facts. We conclude that these movements can be originated by supply or demand shocks, or simply by the adjustment of the economy when goods or labor markets are not balanced because of price and wages rigidities. On the other hand, it justifies the Keynesian argument related to government interference in cases where the economy cannot overcome a recessive stage on its own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the behavior of female labor force participation (LFP) over the business cycle by estimating fixed effects models at the country and population-group level, using data from harmonized national household surveys of 18 Latin American countries in the period 1987–2014. We find that female LFP follows a countercyclical pattern—especially in the case of married, with children and vulnerable women—which suggests the existence of an inverse added-worker effect. We argue that this factor may have contributed to the deceleration in female labor supply in Latin America that took place in the 2000s, a decade of unusual high economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]