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We estimate the determinants (terms of trade, tradable to non-tradable price differentials, interest rate differentials, forward exchange rate and risk premium) of the Mexican bilateral real exchange rate (q) for the short and long run by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL, Pesaran and Shin et al. (2001)) for Mexico (2001.01-2022.12). The inclusion of commercial and financial variables and finding empirical evidence of cointegration only for 2009.01-2022.12 are the main contributions. Our results indicate no cointegrating relationship either for the entire sample, or for 2001.01-2008.12. This finding has to do with the increasing international financialization process, after the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis. Using a double log model we find that: a) there is a strong short-run autoregressive effect of q of up to 4 lags (0.75), b) that the Balassa-Samuelson Effect is the largest in the model (-0.27 and -1.11 for short and long terms), c) the next most important factor is the terms of trade (-0.126 and -0.51, respectively), d) there are considerable, although lesser, effects of financial variables: forward exchange rate (0.0155 and 0.063, respectively) and risk-premium (0.009 and 0.036, respectively), e) there is a clear long-term trend of real depreciation expressed by the trend of 0.0020, which suggests that the PPP hypothesis applies., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Loría, Nalin. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

This paper uses Kaldor's first law to provide an explanation for Mexico's low economic growth over the last four decades. The starting point for analysis is the hypothesis that the lack of dynamism in total production (non-manufacturing) is due to slow momentum in manufacturing and, in particular, to the fact that the Kaldor coefficient has decreased with trade liberalization. Estimates were made (1980.1- 2017.2) using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and rolling regression (recursive estimations). These estimates have been useful in solving the problem of serial correlation and have contributed towards a better statistical evaluation of the evolution of the Kaldor coefficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent literature has empirically demonstrated that the real exchange rate is essential to explaining the economic evolution of developing countries. It has been empirically proven that the anti-inflation exchange rate policy implemented systematically in Mexico has constituted a major restriction on the country's economic growth, a restriction that has persisted throughout this entire time period, even through different monetary and exchange rate regimes. This paper estimates an svar (1950-2014) that shows how the continuous appreciation of the real exchange rate has curbed Mexico's economic growth capacity and had an impact on other macroeconomic balances. This alone could be considered a highly potent structural macroeconomic reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A quadratic version of the first-difference Okun's Law model was estimated for Spain (1995.Q1-2012.Q2). An accelerationist version of Okun's Law was obtained, which allowed us to calculate variable Okun coefficients as well as critical points in the relationship between construction sector growth and the variation in overall unemployment. The optimal economic growth rate was determined to be 7.38 %. By applying principal components, it is demonstrated that this sector led the economic process after 1995. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After some decades of being almost forgotten, since the late eighties, the issue of economic growth has resurged again in the theoretical and empiric investigation worldwide. Nevertheless, in countries like Mexico very little applied research has been carried out; due to the fact, perhaps, that there are no existing official series of capital stock. This paper estimates the Mexican capital stock for 1980.I-2004.IV through the modified perpetual-inventory method suggested by Almon (1999). The outcome is statistic and economically consistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]