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Actively promoting circular economy (CE) is one of the key means of global sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship between CE and economic growth using data from EU-25 countries from 2010 to 2018. The selected CE indicators included municipal waste recycling rate, CE-related investment, municipal waste generation per capita, circularity rate, and trade in recyclable raw materials. Panel cointegration techniques affirmed the long-term equilibrium relationship between CE indicators and GDP. Panel vector error correction model results confirmed that in terms of short-run causality, an increase in material recycling led to a decrease in waste generation, an increase in waste generation led to an increase in CE-related investment, and economic growth led to circular economy growth, but not vice versa. This implies that encouraging CE-related innovation investments and promoting material recycling to stimulate the secondary raw material market can help achieve zero waste goals. Looking at the long-term causality, the GDP and CE indicators constituted a causal loop, which implies that there is co-evolution between them, although the circular economy is still in its infancy. This co-evolutionary sustainable economic growth can bring welfare to future generations., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

This study examined the causal dynamics between circular economy (CE) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in European Union (EU) countries. The selected CE indicators included the trade in recyclable raw materials (TRM) and the circular material use rate (CMR) in the secondary raw materials area, the generation of municipal waste per capita (GMWp) in the production and consumption area and the recycling rate of municipal waste (RMW) in the area of waste management. The coefficients of the panel cointegration equations showed that for every 1 percentage point increase in RMW, average CO 2 emissions decreased by 0.5%, while for every 1 percentage point increase in GMWp and TRM, the average CO 2 emissions increased by 0.263% and 0.101%, respectively. It also showed that the recycling volumes and recycling rate had a positive but very limited impact on the CMR. The panel vector error correction model result showed that there were long-run bidirectional causalities between CE indicators and carbon emissions, and the TRM had a short-run negative impact on waste generation. However, the short-run impact of CE indicators on carbon emissions was not significant, which may be because the European CE is still in its infancy. The finding suggests that policymakers should adopt multilateral policies such as reducing carbon emissions, improving the efficiency and productivity of resource management and waste recycling, and increasing investment and innovation in the secondary raw materials market to achieve resource decoupling and impact decoupling. The decoupling of these two types is a necessary condition for sustainable development.

This paper proposes a three-step process, based on the definition of absolute decoupling (AbsDec), to analyze the role of nuclear energy in the absolute decoupling between environmental pressures (including Energy resource use and CO 2 Emissions) and Economic growth (3-E) during the period 1987-2016. First, we select the top four Nuclear-Dependent Countries (4-NDC), including France, Belgium, Sweden, and Switzerland, from high-income economies and the USA as a sample (i.e., 5-country). Second, we provide compound annual growth rate (CAGR) statistics for all relevant variables in each country. Third, we assess the Carbon Kuznets Curve (CKC) and investigate the dynamic interactions between 3-E by using Lotka-Volterra ecosystem model. For the 5-country, we find that the CAGR of GDP is positive, the CAGRs of CO 2 emissions, CO 2 intensity, and energy intensity are negative, the panel CKC exists, and the projected CAGRs of CO 2 emissions are negative between 2017 and 2025. For the USA, a commensalism of energy-led growth and an amensalism of emissions-limited growth exist. For the 4-NDC, neutralisms between 3-E exist. The aggregated results indicate that the 4-NDC seem to have achieved an AbsDec between 3-E, the USA appears to achieve an AbsDec between economic growth and emissions while undergoing a relative, and perhaps absolute, decoupling between 3-E. The findings can infer that nuclear power is one of the most important energy sources for achieving absolute decoupling and genuinely sustainable development. The policy implication is that measures to reduce energy consumption and control CO 2 emissions may not significantly impair economic growth in countries that rely on nuclear power.

Abstract This study uses the Group of Twenty (G20) as a representative sample of global economic development. Within a panel Emissions–Energy–Output (EEO) framework over the period 1991–2016, to estimate the Carbon Kuznets Curve (CKC), the clean/fossil fuels energy consumption (CE/FF) elasticity of demand for carbon emissions, the causalities between emissions, energy, and economy, and thus to propose strategy for decoupling environmental pressure from economic growth (EG). The results of the descriptive statistical analysis suggest an absolute decoupling effect seems to have occurred with the drop in related environmental pressure and the continuation of economic growth. The panel cointegration test results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions, FF, real GDP, and different types of CE [i.e., new renewable (Ren)/hydropower (Hydro)/nuclear (Nuc)]. The estimation results show that the CKC exists, and emissions are positively elastic to FF and negatively inelastic to Ren/Hydro/Nuc, although Ren's average per capita compound annual growth rate reached 14%. The results of panel vector error correction models reveal that 1) the use of nuclear energy is a key means for dealing with carbon emissions; 2) the substitutability/symbiosis exists between Ren/Hydro and FF; 3) the feedback hypothesis between EG and FF/Ren and the Hydro/Nuc-led growth hypothesis are confirmed. Therefore, energy-saving policies may hurt EG. A broad strategy for emissions, energy consumption, and economy decoupling are to support diversified, sustainable energy consumption mix (including SHP, Ren, and Nuc) and maintain stable economic growth, thereby improving energy efficiency and safety, reducing carbon dioxide intensity, and thus leading the world to absolute decoupling. Absolute decoupling is the only way to achieve a truly sustainable future. Highlights • The absolute decoupling effect of the G20 panel seems likely to occur. • The CKC/EKC hypothesis and the feedback hypothesis for FF/Ren–income are confirmed. • Substitutability exists for Ren–FF, and symbiosis exists for Hydro–FF. • Nuclear power is a key means for dealing with carbon emissions. • Complementary strategies of Ren and Nuc can lead the world to absolute decoupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]