Search

Cliffs are marginal and poorly studied habitats that are home to a high proportion of endemic or threatened species. Here, we reviewed the survival patterns and population dynamics of plants growing on vertical cliffs and compared them to other plants with similar life forms that grow on the ground. To this end, we have compiled studies of cliff and ground-level plants from two main sources: MONITO and COMPADRE. The resulting dataset after applying some filters included a total of 243 populations of 134 plant species monitored for several years in the northern hemisphere. We tested whether survival rates of seedlings and older stages, population growth rates, and their temporal variability showed similar patterns between cliff and ground plants, and the relationship between those demographic parameters. Cliff plants showed higher survival rates for both seedlings and older life stages, as well as lower distance to population equilibrium and more stable population trends over time, compared to plants growing in the ground. Population equilibrium and temporal stability was highly correlated with the survival of post-seedling stages in both groups. These results suggest that cliff plants may be better adapted to withstand climatic variability than the more common ground-level plants occurring in less stressful environments.

A standardised monitoring is indispensable to identify trends of insect populations. However, until recently, a systematic monitoring of insects in Germany was missing. Therefore, the German federal ministry for the environment funded the conceptualisation of an insect monitoring scheme.Here, we inform about the general concept and structure of the German insect monitoring scheme (GIMS) and the steps taken and still to be taken for the implementation of the scheme. A first step was the development of the objectives, general concept und structure of the GIMS in close collaboration with the nature conservation authorities at the national and federal state levels, as the latter are responsible for the implementation of nature conservation-related monitoring schemes. The GIMS is structured into two sections: section 1 ‘Monitoring of common insects’ and section 2 ‘Monitoring of rare insects’. Both sections contain modules that focus on selected aspects of insect diversity. In section 1, insect communities of the wider countryside will be monitored. Section 2 focuses on insect communities in rare habitats and species of high conservation value (e.g. threatened species). The next step was to develop standardised sampling methods for the modules in collaboration with experts and the nature conservation authorities. Wherever appropriate, synergies with other monitoring schemes were created, e.g. for combined analyses with environmental variables.Parallel to the development of the concept, several federal states have already implemented selected modules of the GIMS. Furthermore, the module ‘Grasshoppers in grasslands’ was tested during a pilot phase. By using the data from the pilot phase and the High Nature Value Farmland Monitoring scheme the relationship between high nature value farmland and grasshopper diversity was evaluated. This indicated the great potential of using synergies among monitoring schemes for joint data analyses and showed that it is worth exploring such approaches in greater depth.

Abstract Monitoring population trends is pivotal to effective wildlife conservation and management. However, wildlife managers often face many challenges when analyzing time series of census data due to heterogeneities in sampling methodology, strategy, or frequency. We present a three‐step method for modeling trends from time series of count data obtained through multiple census methods (aerial or ground census and expert estimates). First, we design a heuristic for constructing credible intervals for all types of animal counts including those which come with no precision measure. Then, we define conversion factors for rendering aerial and ground counts comparable and provide values for broad classes of animals from an extant series of parallel aerial and ground censuses. Lastly, we construct a Bayesian model that takes the reconciled counts as input and estimates the relative growth rates between successive dates while accounting for their precisions. Importantly, we bound the rate of increase to account for the demographic potential of a species. We propose a flow chart for constructing credible intervals for various types of animal counts. We provide estimates of conversion factors for 5 broad classes of species. We describe the Bayesian model for calculating trends, annual rates of population increase, and the associated credible intervals. We develop a bespoke R CRAN package, popbayes, for implementing all the calculations that take the raw counts as input. It produces consistent and reliable estimates of population trends and annual rates of increase. Several examples from real populations of large African mammals illustrate the different features of our method. The approach is well‐suited for analyzing population trends for heterogeneous time series and allows a principled use of all the available historical census data. The method is general and flexible and applicable to various other animal species besides African large mammals. It can readily be adapted to test predictions of various hypotheses about drivers of rates of population increase.

Greece holds the third larger breeding population of Dalmatian Pelican in the world. We present data about the establishment and growth, breeding performance and conservation status for all six colonies of the species in Greece for 40 years. Main features of wetlands and colonies are described. We discuss the local, regional and global natural and anthropogenic factors that may have affected colony growth. After 1982 colony surveys were carried out with various methods, adapted to the particularities of each wetland and availability of resources, and targeted estimating number of nests and number of near-fledged young via direct counting either during on-site visits or from vantage points, and recently, counts on photos taken by drones flown one or more times during breeding. Number of nests in Lake Mikri Prespa rose from ca. 100 to 1200-1500 and levelled-off. DPs from Prespa started breeding successfully in Kerkini in 2004 after placement of artificial nesting rafts. The Karla Reservoir was colonised in 2011, just two years after it started filling with water. The DP colony on Lake Chimaditis, an important stop over and feeding site, probably initiated around 2016 and continues growing. The two colonies at the western coastline have limited exchanges with those in the eastern part of the country. Amvrakikos increased and levelled off recently as conservation and management measures restricted disturbance, whilst emigrants re-established the old colony at Messolonghi in 2011 which continues to grow. The overall breeding population in Greece grew from ca 100 to over 2000 br pairs showing an annual growth rate of 7.9%. Younger colonies show high annual growth rates clearly attributed to immigration, while older colonies have growth rates less than 10%. Interacting natural and anthropogenic factors are assumed to have contributed to pelican increase in Greece the last 40 years: better legal protection status, increasingly effective protection, patrolling and conservation measures; public awareness campaigns; provision of artificial nesting structures; increased winter survival due to higher temperatures owed to climate change; less disturbance and persecution due to decline of fisheries; increasing abundance and availability of fish due to eutrophication and climate change; increasing numbers of sympatric great cormorants rendering pelican fishing more efficient; appearance of new wetlands and change of wetlands due to human intervention works.

Knowledge about the conservation status of a species is crucial for its protection in the long run. It provides insights into the geographic range, population size and trend, which are useful in management activities towards safeguarding the future of a species. The idle crayfish, Austropotamobius bihariensis, is a recently described crayfish species that has not yet undergone a full conservation assessment. Here, we present our extensive 13-year study that aimed to fill this gap by investigating and monitoring the species' entire geographic occurrence range and quantifying its subpopulations. Although it is an endemic crayfish located in the Apuseni Mountains (Romania), its range and population is stable. The observed relative abundance is highly unbalanced within subpopulations, with 71% falling below ten individuals per 100 m river stretch. We documented four extinct subpopulations (ca. 16%), whereas more than half of the subpopulations being in a size-decreasing trend. Since no invasive crayfish were detected in (or very close to) its distribution area, the idle crayfish can still be considered safe against invasions. However, based on our findings and following the IUCN Red List Guidelines, we concluded that idle crayfish's most appropriate conservation status is Endangered. IUCN ratification is required for increased significance.

Among the largest fish species, the basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus) is found circumglobally in temperate and tropical waters. Though historical documents have recorded their presence in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), basking sharks are now only rarely observed in this part of their range. We compiled recent and historical data from systematic surveys (1962–1997) and other sources (1973–2018) to (i) examine temporal patterns of basking shark sightings in the CCE, and (ii) determine the spatial, temporal, and environmental drivers that have affected basking shark presence and distribution here for the last 50 years. We first calculated variation in basking shark sightings and school size over time. We then generated species distribution models using the systematic survey data and evaluated the performance of these models against the more recent non-systematic sightings data. The sightings records indicated that the number of shark sightings was variable across years, but the number and probability of sightings declined in the mid-1980s. The systematic survey data showed up to nearly 4,000 sharks sighted per year until the 1990s, after which there were no sightings reported. In parallel, there was more than a 50% decline in school size from the 1960s to the 1980s (57.2 to 24.0 individuals per group). During the subsequent decades in the non-systematic data (>1990), less than 60 sharks were sighted per year. There were no schools larger than 10 reported, and the mean school size in the last decade (2010s) was 3.53 individuals per group. Low sea surface temperature and high chlorophyll a concentration increased sightings probability, and prevailing climatic oscillations (El Nino-Southern Oscillation index, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) were also correlated with basking shark presence. Lastly, we observed a significant shift in the seasonality of sightings, from the fall and spring during the systematic survey period to the summer months after the 2000s. We conclude by offering suggestions for future research and conservation efforts; specifically, coordinating the documentation of fisheries mortalities and sightings throughout the Pacific basin would facilitate more robust population estimates and identify sources of mortality. Additionally, monitoring shark fin markets and developing region-specific genetic markers would help ensure that convention on international trade in endangered species (CITES) regulations are being followed.

Deforestation is perhaps the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Anyway, extensive areas in the tropics have naturally regenerated and become secondary forests, which might mitigate biodiversity loss. However, evidence about the value of secondary forests for biodiversity conservation is still controversial. To establish the conservation value of secondary forests in the tropical Andes, we compared bird species richness, abundance, and composition between old and mature secondary forests using camera traps for two consecutive years. Our results suggest that old and mature secondary forests are similar in species richness and abundance to mature secondary forests, but these habitats significantly differ in species composition. Old secondary forests harbored some species highly specialized to mature forests (e.g., ant-following insectivorous birds: Myrmeciza longipes, Gymnopithys bicolor, Formicarius analis, and Dendrocincla fuliginosa) that are highly sensitive to habitat disturbance. Additionally, old secondary forests constitute suitable habitat for several species with decreasing populations, which could become of conservation importance in the long run. We consider that old secondary forests surrounded by mature forests can contribute to conserving understory birds, one of the most susceptible groups, negatively affected by tropical forest loss and degradation. Therefore, strategies for habitat biodiversity protection in this region should also include old secondary forests.

Current assessments indicate that populations of several species of North American shorebirds are declining rapidly. However, limited monitoring programs south of the U.S.-Mexico border have precluded assessments of the conservation status of temperate breeders on their principal wintering grounds. The Migratory Shorebird Project (MSP), active since 2011 throughout the Pacific Americas Flyway, provides an opportunity to detect changes in non-breeding shorebird distribution and abundance. We used annual survey data collected using the MSP monitoring protocol to assess population trends of three temperate breeders: Marbled Godwit (Limosa fedoa), Willet (Tringa semipalmata), and Long-billed Curlew (Numeniues americanus) on their main wintering grounds in northwest Mexico and California. We also analyzed the associations between fluctuations in their abundance and environmental variables using Generalized Linear Mixed Models. We found a significant negative trend in the wintering population of Marbled Godwit and Willet in California and the Baja California Peninsula (BCP). The BCP was the most important region for these three species in the study area, followed by Sonora, Sinaloa, Nayarit (SSN), and California. In addition, we determined that Marbled Godwit abundance was negatively associated with precipitation and positively associated with minimum temperature from January. Willet abundance also was positively associated with minimum temperature, but negatively with sea surface temperature and precipitation. Association of Long-billed Curlew abundance with precipitation was positive and significant. Our study provides evidence that temperate shorebirds are declining and their fluctuations are associated to environmental variables, and highlights the importance of long-term winter shorebird surveys for understanding drivers of populations change that can then be used to identify management and adaptation strategies.

Abstract Very high‐resolution satellite (VHR) imagery is a promising tool for estimating the abundance of wildlife populations, especially in remote regions where traditional surveys are limited by logistical challenges. Emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri were the first species to have a circumpolar population estimate derived via VHR imagery. Here we address an untested assumption from Fretwell et al. (2012) that a single image of an emperor penguin colony is a reasonable representation of the colony for the year the image was taken. We evaluated satellite‐related and environmental variables that might influence the calculated area of penguin pixels to reduce uncertainties in satellite‐based estimates of emperor penguin populations in the future. We focused our analysis on multiple VHR images from three representative colonies: Atka Bay, Stancomb‐Wills (Weddell Sea sector) and Coulman Island (Ross Sea sector) between September and December during 2011. We replicated methods in Fretwell et al. (2012), which included using supervised classification tools in ArcGIS 10.7 software to calculate area occupied by penguins (hereafter referred to as ‘population indices’) in each image. We found that population indices varied from 2 to nearly 6‐fold, suggesting that penguin pixel areas calculated from a single image may not provide a complete understanding of colony size for that year. Thus, we further highlight the important roles of: (i) sun azimuth and elevation through image resolution and (ii) penguin patchiness (aggregated vs. distributed) on the calculated areas. We found an effect of wind and temperature on penguin patchiness. Despite intra‐seasonal variability in population indices, simulations indicate that reliable, robust population trends are possible by including satellite‐related and environmental covariates and aggregating indices across time and space. Our work provides additional parameters that should be included in future models of population size for emperor penguins.

We examined long-term demography of an endangered subspecies, the Northern Aplomado Falcon (Falco femoralis septentrionalis), in South Texas, USA. The population has been managed and monitored since reintroductions began in 1993. Data spanning 1993–2018 enabled us to build an integrated population model (IPM) and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate survival for three life stages (first-year, non-breeders, and breeders) and both sexes, abundance of males, fecundity, immigration, and emigration. Male falcons survived at lower rates than females during their first year; Hurricane Harvey caused a decline in survival rates of first-years and breeders; and fecundity increased after 2011 coinciding with changes in management focused on improving nest platforms and habitat quality. Both immigration of non-breeders and emigration were likely negligible for this population suggesting a potentially isolated population. The IPM likely overestimated immigration of breeders warranting further research. Population growth rates were greatest during years having more released captive-reared young and greater probabilities of breeder survival. Importantly, an apparent decrease in breeder survival of unknown cause occurred during 2006–2009 when breeder survival declined and remained low for several years. Our ability to identify the cause for reduced survival is now greatly hampered by the extended time that has passed, limiting the usefulness of this recent awareness for informing management and further highlighting the importance of real-time monitoring for proactive decision making processes. Our study greatly improves knowledge of demographics for a reintroduced, isolated, and intensively managed population of Aplomado Falcons. Applying this IPM to new data each year will enable adaptive management of the South Texas population by providing annual evaluations of vital rates along with revised assessments of monitoring and management.

Analysis of long-term datasets on bird populations can be used to answer ecological and management questions that are useful for conservation. Tanguar Haor (9500 ha) is one of the major freshwater wetlands in Bangladesh and supports a large number of migratory and resident waterbirds. Because of its unique ecological and economic values, it is arguably the most notable wetland in the floodplains of northeast Bangladesh and in the region. This Ramsar site supports globally important populations of threatened waterbirds, such as the Baer’s Pochard Aythya baeri, Common Pochard Aythya ferina, Falcated Duck Mareca falcata, Ferruginous Duck Aythya nyroca, Oriental Darter Anhinga melanogaster, and Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa. Considering the international significance of this site, knowledge gaps on waterbird population trends, and key ecological factors, we conducted waterbird census between 2008 and 2021 to identify priority sites for conservation, population trends of resident and migratory waterbirds, and environmental factors that influence their abundances. We recorded a total of 69 species of waterbirds (maximum count of 166,788 individuals in 2013) and assessed population trends of 47 species. Of these, peak counts of 15 species exceeded the 1% threshold of their Asian-Australian Flyway population estimates. Most species (59%) showed a declining trend, including the critically endangered Baer’s Pochard and the vulnerable Common Pochard, and 16 species (41%) showed an increasing trend. Based on the abundance and species diversity, we have identified Chotainna beel and Lechuamara beel as conservation priority sites within the Haor complex and discuss key threats to these areas. We also offer evidence that adjusting water-level management to annual rainfall patterns could be a useful intervention for waterbird management. Involving local communities in conservation efforts by creating bird sanctuaries within the Haor complex will strengthen waterbird conservation in the country and along the East Asian-Australian Flyway.

Designing a population monitoring program for Asian bears presents challenges associated with their low densities and detectability, generally large home ranges, and logistical or resource constraints. The use of an occupancy-based method to monitor bear populations can be appropriate under certain conditions given the mechanistic relationship between occupancy and abundance. The form of the occupancy–abundance relationship is dependent on species-specific characteristics such as home range size and population density, as well as study area size. To assess the statistical power of tests to detect population change of Asian bears, we conducted a study using a range of scenarios by simulating spatially explicit individual-based capture-recapture data from a demographically open model. Simulations assessed the power to detect changes in population density via changes in site-level occupancy or abundance through time, estimated using a standard occupancy model or a Royle-Nichols model, both with point detectors (representing camera traps). We used IUCN Red List criteria as a guide in selection of two population decline scenarios (20% and 50%), but we chose a shorter time horizon (10 years = 1 bear generation), meaning that declines were steeper than used for IUCN criteria (3 generations). Our simulations detected population declines of 50% with high power (>0.80) and low false positive rates (FPR: incorrectly detecting a decline) ( 0.67 times the home range diameter (home-range spacing ratio: HRSR, a measure of spatial correlation), such that bears would tend to overlap no more than two detectors. There was high (0.85) correlation between realized occupancy and N in these scenarios. The FPR increased as the HRSR decreased because of spatial correlation in the occupancy process induced when individual home ranges overlap multiple detectors. The mean statistical power to detect more gradual population declines (20% in 10 years) with HRSR > 0.67 was low for occupancy models 0.22 (maximum power 0.67) and Royle-Nichols models (0.24; maximum power 0.67), suggesting that declines of this magnitude may not be described reliably with 10 years of monitoring. Our results demonstrated that under many realistic scenarios that we explored, false positive rates were unacceptably high. We highlight that when designing occupancy studies, the spacing between point detectors be at least 0.67 times the diameter of the home range size of the larger sex (e.g., males) when the assumptions of the spatial capture-recapture model used for simulation are met.

Many wildlife species are threatened in Asia, including the five species of terrestrial bears (Asiatic black, Ursus thibetanus; brown, U. arctos; sloth, Melursus ursinus; sun, Helarctos malayanus; giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca): many populations of these bears are thought to be declining or imperiled by small population size. Here our aim is to document how population assessments have been conducted for bears in Asia. We searched the literature and identified 102 studies published during 1999–2021 that investigated the status of an Asian bear population; these occurred in 24 of the 32 bear range countries in Asia. At the most basic level, 11% of studies verified presence of bears in places where they were not known to exist. The most common objective (53% of papers) was a distribution map, often derived from presence locations in a habitat-based model. Occupancy studies (15%) used temporal (time stamps on images from cameras) or spatial (transect segments) replicates, but tended to focus on “use”, so detector spacing was sometimes not appropriate for occupancy. Purported population indices, such as sign density or camera trap encounter rates, were reported in 16% of studies. One third of studies provided a population estimate, but only 10 studies in two decades used a rigorous method (e.g., mark–recapture). Sign surveys and interviews were the most common methods for determining bear presence, and local interviews were heavily relied upon for assessing population trend. Camera trapping has become increasingly prevalent, but only one study obtained a population estimate using photographs to distinguish natural individual markings. Only three studies used hair traps to obtain DNA-based population estimates, and three other studies obtained population estimates from DNA in scats. Just three studies quantitatively measured change in population size or occupancy over time, and none of these showed a decline. Unique rangewide sign surveys of giant pandas showed significant geographic expansion. The opinions of experts and local people, now heavily relied upon for population assessments, are not reliable or sensitive enough for monitoring. Quantitative population assessments are desirable to direct conservation actions toward the most perilous situations, and provide a means to gauge the effectiveness of conservation actions. This paper demonstrates the paucity of rigorous monitoring of Asian bears, and leads off a series of papers that propose improved methods for assessing distribution, occupancy, and density.

Abstract Social, burrowing mammals such as prairie dogs, ground squirrels or marmots are keystone species in grassland ecosystems. Grasslands have been converted into cropland or pastures globally, yet it remains virtually unknown how this has affected the biogeography of burrowing mammals, as efficient, broad‐scale survey methods are lacking. We aimed to test whether structures created by burrowing rodents can be reliably detected on publicly available, very‐high‐resolution satellite images, in order to assess rodent distribution and abundance. We identified burrows of Bobak marmot (Marmota bobak), a keystone burrowing steppe rodent, on 1300 randomly selected plots of 1 km diameter (78.53 ha) across the species’ range (~950 000 km²) in Kazakhstan and southern Russia using Google Earth and Bing images. We then used burrow occurrences and species distribution models to map marmot distribution. We assessed how marmot occurrence and density vary across land‐use types. We also combined satellite‐based burrow densities and ground‐survey data to derive a new population estimate for the species across Kazakhstan. We mapped a total of 7425 burrows from the satellite imagery. Field visits at a subsample of burrows suggested that burrow occurrence was detected reliably. Broad‐scale marmot distribution was mainly determined by summer rainfall, land use and elevation. Occurrence probability was highest on arable croplands, followed by abandoned croplands and grazed steppe. The current Bobak marmot population size for Kazakhstan was estimated at 6.1 (±2.4) million individuals. Our results demonstrate that publicly available, very‐high‐resolution images can be used to reliably map the distribution of burrowing mammals across large geographic scales. The observed and predicted distributions indicate that the Bobak's range has remained almost unchanged in Kazakhstan since the 1950s, despite several drastic episode of land‐use change. This suggests that burrowing mammals can be remarkably resilient to land‐use pressure, questioning prevailing narratives of population collapse in these species following agricultural expansion.

Abstract A simulation‐based power analysis can be used to estimate the sample sizes needed for a successful monitoring program, but requires technical expertise and sometimes extensive computing resources. We developed a web‐based lookup app, called TrendPowerTool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/TrendPowerTool/), to provide guidance for ecological monitoring programs when resources are not available for a simulation‐based power analysis. TrendPowerTool is implemented through the shiny package in R, but is accessible through a webpage without the need for users to install any software. By drawing on results of 1.4 million scenarios that we simulated on a supercomputer, TrendPowerTool quickly and easily provides an estimate of the statistical power to detect a population trend of a particular magnitude with a planned monitoring program, based on user‐specified parameters for the monitoring design and population of interest. TrendPowerTool provides a user‐friendly interface that retrieves results instantaneously, facilitating the important step of conducting a power analysis when designing monitoring programs.

Abstract Population estimates are commonly generated and used in conservation science. All estimates carry inherent uncertainty, but little attention has been given to when and how this uncertainty limits their use. This requires an understanding of the specific purposes for which population estimates are intended, an assessment of the level of uncertainty each purpose can tolerate, and information on current uncertainty. We conducted a review and meta‐analysis for a widespread group of seabirds, the petrels, to better understand how and why population estimates are being used. Globally petrels are highly threatened, and aspects of their ecology make them difficult to survey, introducing high levels of uncertainty into population estimates. We found that by far the most common intended use of population estimates was to inform status and trend assessments, while less common uses were trialling methods to improve estimates and assessing threat impacts and conservation outcomes. The mean coefficient of variation for published estimates was 0.17 (SD = 0.14), with no evidence that uncertainty has been reduced through time. As a consequence of this high uncertainty, when we simulated declines equivalent to thresholds commonly used to trigger management, only 5% of studies could detect significant differences between population estimates collected 10 years apart for populations declining at a rate of 30% over three generations. Reporting of uncertainty was variable with no dispersion statistics reported with 38% of population estimates and most not reporting key underlying parameters: nest numbers/density and nest occupancy. We also found no correlation between uncertainty in petrel population estimates and either island size, body size or species threat status – potential predictors of uncertainty. Key recommendations for managers are to be mindful of uncertainty in past population estimates if aiming to collect contemporary estimates for comparison, to report uncertainty clearly for new estimates, and to give careful consideration to whether a proposed estimate is likely to achieve the requisite level of certainty for the investment in its generation to be warranted. We recommend a practitioner‐based value of information assessment to confirm where there is value in reducing uncertainty.

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems.

In this study, we used a 10-year (2007–2016) mark-recapture dataset to investigate the potential effects of flooding and port development on the population dynamics of Australian humpback dolphins (Sousa sahulensis), inhabiting the Fitzroy River and Port Curtis, within the southern Great Barrier Reef region. A Multisite Capture-Recapture model was used to quantify population size and demographic parameters for both sexes and sites. Flood occurrence and intensity (both sites), and port development (Port Curtis) were included as explanatory variables. Abundance estimates indicated that about 77 adult dolphins were present in both sites, of which 69% were females. Most females (69%) were resident with a yearly recruitment close to zero for most years. Most males and unsexed (68%) individuals showed little evidence of long-term residency. The abundances of males and unsexed individuals varied between 15 and 20 dolphins in the Fitzroy River and 19–26 in Port Curtis, but the accuracy was too low to assess changes. Female abundances started at 56 in both sites and declined to about 32 per site in 2011, coinciding with port development construction activities and a concurrent major flood. In Port Curtis, the number of females returned to their original levels once the port development was completed in 2013. In the Fitzroy River, the declining trend continued and reached the lowest estimated abundance of 29 in 2016. As port developments and floods are expected to increase along the Queensland coastal region over coming decades, the results of this study highlight increasing concerns about the vulnerability and long-term sustainability of inshore dolphins in the GBR.

Pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) are critically endangered, and declines have been documented at multiple nesting sites throughout the Pacific. The western Pacific leatherback forages in temperate and tropical waters of the Indo-Pacific region, and about 38–57% of summer-nesting females from the largest remaining nesting population in Papua Barat (Indonesia) migrate to distant foraging grounds off the U.S. West Coast, including neritic waters off central California. In this study, we examined the trend in leatherback abundance off central California from 28 years of aerial survey data from coast-wide and adaptive fine-scale surveys. We used a Bayesian hierarchical analysis framework, including a process model of leatherback population density and an observation model relating leatherback observations to distance sampling methods. We also used time-depth data from biologgers deployed on 21 foraging leatherback turtles in the study area to account for detection biases associated with diving animals. Our results indicate that leatherback abundance has declined at an annual rate of −5.6% (95% credible interval −9.8% to −1.5%), without any marked changes in ocean conditions or prey availability. These results are similar to the nesting population trends of −5.9% and −6.1% per year estimated at Indonesian index beaches, which comprise 75% of western Pacific nesting activity. Combined, the declining trends underscore the need for coordinated international conservation efforts and long-term population monitoring to avoid extirpation of western Pacific leatherback turtles.

Abstract Longitudinal studies of wildlife are urgently needed in South‐East Asia to understand population responses to the high poaching pressure that characterizes this region. We monitored population trends and habitat use of five heavily poached ungulate species (gaur, sambar, wild pig, red muntjac, and Fea's muntjac) over five years in two protected areas in western Thailand using camera trap surveys. We used single‐season occupancy models to investigate effects of ecological and anthropological variables on ungulate distribution, and multi‐season models to assess occupancy dynamics over time. Occupancy of gaur and sambar was low (

Evaluating the efficacy of monitoring designs is crucial for the successful monitoring and conservation of populations. For tidal marsh bird species of conservation concern, detecting population declines at local spatial scales within actionable time frames is a top priority. We examined and compared the effectiveness of alternative monitoring strategies for detecting local-scale population declines using count data from 1176 spatially-independent salt marsh sampling points throughout the northeastern United States (Maine to Virginia). We used abundance estimates that accounted for imperfect detection as initial conditions to simulate annual population declines of 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% over a 5-year sampling period. Under an optimal monitoring design with biennial sampling, we were able to successfully detect annual population declines of ≥30% for each species and for all species combined. However, this required a minimum of 15–20 points per site being sampled. Power to detect declines, although low for detecting smaller annual declines (i.e.,

Beginning in 1986, 7 aerial surveys covering the coastal waters of Iceland have been conducted up to 2016. In addition, several partial surveys covering portions of the same area and at different times of the year have been flown in the same 30 year time span. We present previously unpublished abundance estimates, corrected to the extent feasible for known biases, for common minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae), white-beaked dolphins (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) and harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) from some or all of the 2007, 2009 and 2016 surveys. The relative abundance of most species was comparatively low in the spring and fall, and peaked June and July when all of the main surveys have been carried out. An analysis of changes in line transect density as an index of relative abundance from all surveys indicates that common minke whale abundance decreased by 75% after 2001 and has remained at a relatively low level since then. Relative abundance of humpback whales and white-beaked dolphins has increased over the period 1986-2016. We place these observed changes in context with oceanographic and ecosystem changes documented over the same period.

Conservation of migratory species depends on an understanding of the drivers causing population declines across the annual cycle. Since it is difficult to track the entire annual cycle for long-distance migrants, measurements from part of the cycle may provide insights into overall drivers. Barn Swallows (Hirundo rustica) in Canada have undergone steep and long-term population declines. Using Breeding Bird Survey data and breeding performance data collected at field sites in three regions across Canada, we examined long- and short-term Barn Swallow population trends in Canada, differences in breeding performance across regions, if average breeding performance measures or colony size predicted regional population growth rates and if local breeding performance is driven by density dependence and/or recruitment. We found that long-term negative population trends were generally stronger in the east and west, and weaker in central Canada. Short-term population trends were generally weakly negative or neutral. Average breeding performance and colony size were poor predictors of regional growth rates observed in the subsequent year. We found little support for density dependence affecting local breeding performance; however, local breeding success, presumably through subsequent recruitment of young, was positively correlated to changes in local colony size in the following year. Since we found juveniles recruited into colonies located in the same region, but no link between average breeding performance and estimated regional population trajectories, our results suggest that extrapolating from local-scale studies to broader populations is challenging, and other demographic rates (i.e., survival) may need to be considered. Overall, our study suggests that contemporary Barn Swallow populations are below carrying capacity in Canada, further suggesting that food limitation is not currently regulating populations. Further study is needed to understand what factors are limiting and regulating Barn Swallow populations in Canada, across the annual cycle.

Historic population trajectories for most North American bird species are largely unknown for years prior to circa 1970. Additionally, current estimates of population trajectories of boreal and Arctic breeding species are imprecise or biased because of lack of coverage by Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) routes in that region. Citizen science data, in particular eBird data, could fill these information gaps. Bayesian regression models of eBird data were used to estimate population trajectories of 22 boreal or Arctic breeding species of songbirds, 4 migratory songbird species that breed in eastern North America, and 2 species of raptors whose populations crashed due to the pesticide DDT. Models used range-wide data from the U.S. and Canada for spring migration/breeding, fall migration, and winter. To evaluate the model results, comparisons were made between eBird models from different seasons, between eBird indices and area defoliated by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), and between eBird, BBS, and Christmas Bird Count (CBC) annual indices and trends. Population trajectories were positively correlated between seasons for most of the species analyzed based on correlations between annual indices, magnitude of trends, and residuals from trend models. Of the species analyzed, those most often associated with spruce budworm outbreaks had the strongest correlations between eBird annual indices and area defoliated by spruce budworm in the boreal forest. Annual indices from eBird models were positively correlated with BBS for most species, and trends calculated through the annual indices from eBird models were strongly correlated with those from the BBS for spring (r = 0.73, n = 25, P < 0.0001), fall (r = 0.64, n = 25, P = 0.0005), and winter (r = 0.81, n = 9, P = 0.0084), and winter eBird trends were correlated with those from the CBC (r = 0.64, n = 12, P = 0.0252). The results suggest eBird analyses could be an important complement to the BBS, CBC, and other surveys for assessing the status of bird species in North America, and that historic population trajectories could be estimated with additional historic eBird checklists.

Substantial effort has been dedicated to developing reliable monitoring schemes for North American bird populations, but our ability to monitor bird populations in the boreal forest remains limited because of the sparsity of long-term data sets, particularly in northerly regions. Given the importance of the boreal forest for many migratory birds, we set out to (1) summarize the main challenges associated with monitoring avian populations, (2) describe the available statistical tools for population monitoring and their applications, and (3) identify future directions to overcome current challenges in monitoring bird populations in the boreal forest. Defining and delineating populations of interest and identifying the drivers that affect those populations present the greatest current challenges. This is because migratory birds may be affected by many population-limiting processes at different stages of their annual life cycles. These factors are often hierarchically structured and can influence populations at the local, regional, or continental scales. Some of the challenges associated with delineating populations and identifying population drivers can be addressed via the plethora of sampling and analytic methods available to examine population change over time. Choosing the proper analytic methods depends on the goals of the study and the nature of the data such as single or multiple populations, repeated occurrence or count-based surveys, or demographic rates. Recent advances in hierarchical and integrated population models make these analytic approaches some of the most promising avenues for the development of future methods. However, these tools require large data sets, and acquiring sufficient data on bird populations and potential explanatory variables is difficult in the boreal forest. If the current challenges to monitoring birds in the boreal forest are to be overcome, serious effort should be dedicated to integrating existing data and making them accessible. Enhancing survey effort through multispecies surveys will also play an important role. Implementing spatially balanced sampling plans with a rotating panel design could balance the trade-offs between spatial versus temporal replication at an affordable cost. Improving the accessibility of environmental covariates that are spatially and temporally explicit would also enable development of mechanistic population models that improve our understanding of migratory bird population dynamics. Finally, given that long-term monitoring programs can take many decades before delivering reliable population trends and that organizational priorities often change over time, we suggest that collaborative efforts will help ensure the long-term survival of new monitoring programs.

The boreal forest provides important breeding habitat for many migratory songbirds; however, changes in disturbance regimes have led to concern for populations breeding there. Monitoring data to track changes in boreal forest bird populations are scarce. Therefore, we repeated surveys at historic research sites in aspen-dominated boreal mixedwood forest in central Saskatchewan, Canada, to test for changes in abundance in different forest age classes. We used GIS analyses and habitat data to test whether observed changes in abundance were correlated with within-stand changes in habitat over approximately 20 years. Eight of the ten species examined showed evidence for change in abundance. Trends from our study showed little correlation with regional trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and generally displayed greater magnitude and precision. Species associated with closed-canopy forests declined more rapidly than suggested by BBS surveys, whereas species associated with disturbance generally had opposite trends to the BBS. Decreased abundance of species such as Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) and Yellow-rumped Warbler (Setophaga coronata) correlated with loss of forest cover from fire or harvesting. Conversely, changes in the abundance of species associated with early successional forest and canopy gaps were primarily correlated with within-stand disturbances (e.g., Magnolia Warbler [Setophaga magnolia]) and changes in the proportion of the stands composed of conifers (e.g., White-throated Sparrow [Zonotrichia albicollis]). We suggest repeating historic surveys and comparing trends with other monitoring programs to provide a weight-of-evidence approach to assess overall support for changes in species' status for regions where data are sparse. Our results are consistent with previous studies that predict that changes in the forest age-class distribution could alter boreal forest bird abundance and community composition. Long-term conservation plans should integrate projected land-use and climate effects on boreal forest bird populations.

The Danish breeding Starling population declined at a mean annual rate of −2.24% ± 0.39 (95% CI) during 1976–2015 (a 60% decline overall). Starling density in the mid-1990s was positively correlated with dairy cattle abundance in 13 local areas. Regional declines in Starling abundance between 2001 and 2014 were positively correlated with loss of high intensity grazing pressure by dairy cattle, as more animal husbandry moved indoors. The long-term decline in national Starling abundance was positively correlated with the long term numbers of dairy cattle grazing outdoors. This study therefore confirms that not only does the extent of available grassland to breeding Starlings affect their relative abundance, but that the intensity of grazing of these grasslands is also of importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science projects provide a vast amount of biological data that can be used to model population trends of species. Robust statistical modeling techniques are necessary to account for multiple sources of bias inherent to the data. One such citizen science project, eBird, is an online database of avian checklist data entered by birdwatchers from discrete locations and visits. The eBird dataset may be large enough to fill information gaps left by other monitoring programs if biases in the data are modeled appropriately and if the models can be validated against reliable survey data. We compared eBird and North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data from southern Ontario to determine if patterns in annual indices and long-term trends were similar for 22 species that reach the northern limit of their range in that region. Mixed-effects models were used to address varying observer skill and uneven geographic coverage in eBird, and the number of species per checklist was used as a covariate to represent effort and to accommodate historic lists lacking effort information. The average Pearson's correlation coefficient between eBird and BBS annual indices across species was 0.35, and the correlation between trends estimated from the annual indices was 0.72. eBird data generally agreed with BBS data with the exception of two common species that showed opposite trends, several species with low detection rates, and for two species with little long-term change in occurrence based on BBS data. Our results suggest that eBird data can be used to generate long-term trends that could complement data from traditional surveys, yet more work is needed to understand circumstances that lead to disagreement between eBird and other surveys.

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

The Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) is an open-country species breeding in the northern United States and Canada, and has likely experienced a long-term, range-wide, and substantial decline. However, the cause and magnitude of the decline is not well understood. We set forth to address the first two of six previously proposed conservation priorities to be addressed for this species: (1) better define habitat use and (2) improve population monitoring. We recruited 131 volunteers to survey over 6.2 million ha within the state of Idaho for Short-eared Owls during the 2015 breeding season. We surveyed 75 transects, 71 of which were surveyed twice, and detected Short-eared Owls on 27 transects. We performed multiscale occupancy modeling to identify habitat associations, and performed multiscale abundance modeling to generate a state-wide population estimate. Our results suggest that within the state of Idaho, Short-eared Owls are more often found in areas with marshland or riparian habitat or areas with greater amounts of sagebrush habitat at the 1750 ha transect scale. At the 50 ha point scale, Short-eared Owls tend to associate positively with fallow and bare dirt agricultural land and negatively with grassland. Cropland was not chosen at the broader transect scale suggesting that Short-eared Owls may prefer more heterogeneous landscapes. On the surface our results may seem contradictory to the presumed land use by a "grassland" species; however, the grasslands of the Intermountain West, consisting largely of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), lack the complex structure shown to be preferred by these owls. We suggest the local adaptation to agriculture represents the next best habitat to their historical native habitat preferences. Regardless, we have confirmed regional differences that should be considered in conservation planning for this species. Last, our results demonstrate the feasibility, efficiency, and effectiveness of utilizing public participation in scientific research to achieve a robust sampling methodology across the broad geography of the Intermountain West.

Kirtland's warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) persist in a naturally patchy environment of young, regenerating jack pine forests (i.e., 5-23 years old) created after wildfires and human logging activities. We examined how changing landscape structure from 26 years of forest management and wildfire disturbances influenced population size and spatial dispersion of male Kirtland's warblers within their restricted breeding range in northern Lower Michigan, USA. The male Kirtland's warbler population was six times larger in 2004 (1,322) compared to 1979 (205); the change was nonlinear with 1987 and 1994 identified as significant points of change. In 1987, the population trend began increasing after a slowly declining trend prior to 1987, and the rate of increase appeared to slow after 1994. Total amount of suitable habitat and the relative area of wildfireregenerated habitat were the most important factors explaining population trend. Suitable habitat increased 149% primarily due to increasing plantations from forest management. The relative amount and location of wildfire-regenerated habitat modified the distribution of males among various habitat types, and the spatial variation in their abundance across the primary breeding range. These findings indicate that the Kirtland's warbler male population shifted its use of habitat types temporally and spatially as the population increased and as the relative availability of habitats changed through time. We demonstrate that researchers and managers need to consider not only habitat quality, but the temporal and the spatial context of habitat availability and population levels when making habitat restoration decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Direct estimates of extinction risk are frequently unavailable, so surrogate indicators are used in threatened species categorizations, but there is inadequate information on which best predict vulnerability. We compared the ability of 16 frequently-used factors to predict extinction risk for 45 vertebrate taxa. Median times to extinction were estimated using taxon-specific stochastic population models. Population size (N) and trend were clearly the best correlates of extinction risk in our data set. Stepwise multiple regression with additive and interaction terms identified N, N × trend, plus taxonomic level, number of sub-populations × N × trend, number of offspring (O) and N × O as predictors, and explained 70% of the variation. Trend was important in large, but not in small populations. Population size is the most important data to collect for threatened species and with trend should be the major focus in endangered species categorization and state of the environment reporting. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark–recapture study conducted during 1975–1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22–70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87–97%, 95% CI) for females ≥ 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57–0.77 for females and 0.43–0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter–spring and greatest in autumn–winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35–0.46 for females and 0.29–0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark–recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark–recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]