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To inform efforts at preventing future pandemics, we assessed how socio-demographic attributes correlated with wildlife consumption as COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) first spread across Asia. Self-reported wildlife consumption was most strongly related to COVID-19 awareness; those with greater awareness were 11-24% less likely to buy wildlife products. A hypothetical intervention targeting increased awareness, support for wildlife market closures and reduced medical impacts of COVID-19 could halve future wildlife consumption rates across several countries and demographics.

Land transformation reduces biodiversity and regional sustainability, with land price being an indicator of the opportunity cost to a landowner of resisting land conversion. However, reliable spatially explicit databases of current land prices are generally lacking in developing countries. We used tools from data science to scrape 1,487 georeferenced land prices in southern Kenya from the internet. Prices were higher for land near cities and in areas of high agricultural productivity, but also around the Maasai Mara National Reserve. Predicted land prices ranged from US$662 to US$4,618,805 per acre. Land speculation associated with expanding urbanization increases the opportunity and acquisition costs of maintaining conservation buffer zones, corridors, and dispersal areas. However, high land values are also found adjacent to a world-famous tourist destination. Profit-driven turnover of ownership, subdivision, and transformation of land is occurring at a rapid pace in southern Kenya, to the detriment of savanna biodiversity and the sustainability of the pastoral social–ecological system.

The dual mandate for many protected areas (PAs) to simultaneously promote recreation and conserve biodiversity may be hampered by negative effects of recreation on wildlife. However, reports of these effects are not consistent, presenting a knowledge gap that hinders evidence-based decision-making. We used camera traps to monitor human activity and terrestrial mammals in Golden Ears Provincial Park and the adjacent University of British Columbia Malcolm Knapp Research Forest near Vancouver, Canada, with the objective of discerning relative effects of various forms of recreation on cougars (

Conservation of predators – especially large carnivores and those that potentially pose threats to humans – can be controversial among stakeholders who must coexist with them. What is often overlooked, however, are the direct and indirect ecosystem services and disservices predators provide as a result of consumption of herbivores (“predation services”). We used a theoretical predator–prey–economic model to examine when predators are likely to provide a net service to society, by comparing services/disservices to a predator‐free counterfactual scenario. We found that net predator services were strongly dependent on how per‐capita services and disservices of predators and prey changed with abundance (ie assumed marginal value [MV] functions of service/disservice). We suggest that further empirical research is needed into MVs of services/disservices of wildlife, because transferring net services among locations – a common practice – is problematic unless MV functions are known. Rigorously quantifying services/disservices of predators could improve conservation and management outcomes by increasing effective communication to diverse stakeholders.

Facing public concern over costs related to top‐predator reintroductions and conservation, ecosystem services such as ecotourism are often used to evoke benefits that outweigh or offset those costs. Quantifying these benefits using rigorous scientific methods can provide confidence to policymakers and other stakeholders that predators can in fact deliver positive outcomes to people living alongside them. The evaluation of these benefits is often anecdotal or qualitative, however, and empirical quantifications are rare. In coastal marine ecosystems, sea otter reintroduction is seen as a conservation success to some but a bane to others. The contribution of sea otters (Enyhdra lutris) to tourism revenue is touted as a crucial ecosystem service benefit to offset the loss of shellfish harvesting and associated revenue, but remains unquantified, weakening the favourable reception of conservation action. The potential economic benefits of sea otters associated with tourism and the extent to which benefits are realized were evaluated based on: (i) choice‐experiment surveys of tourists; and (ii) interviews with tourism operators in British Columbia. Sea otters were a strong factor in people's choices regarding wildlife viewing, and sea otters could have large benefits for local economies. Alongside socio‐economic characteristics, tourism experience influences tourists’ preferences. Tourism operators did not perceive sea otters as strongly influencing tourist choice, highlighting the gap that can occur between the perception and the reality of tourist preferences, leading to missed opportunities for the alignment of economic development with conservation actions.

Biodiversity monitoring delivers vital information to those making conservation decisions. Comprehensively measuring terrestrial biodiversity usually requires costly methods that can rarely be deployed at large spatial scales over multiple time periods, limiting conservation efficiency. Here we investigated the capacity of environmental DNA (eDNA) from stream water samples to survey terrestrial mammal diversity at multiple spatial scales within a large catchment. We compared biodiversity information recovered using an eDNA metabarcoding approach with data from a dense camera trap survey, as well as the sampling costs of both methods. Via the sampling of large volumes of water from the two largest streams that drained the study area, eDNA metabarcoding provided information on the presence and detection probabilities of 35 mammal taxa, 25% more than camera traps and for half the cost. While eDNA metabarcoding had limited capacity to detect felid species and provide individual-level demographic information, it is a cost-efficient method for large-scale monitoring of terrestrial mammals that can offer sufficient information to solve many conservation problems., Scientific Reports, 11 (1), ISSN:2045-2322

AIM: Changes in climate and land use are modifying biodiversity worldwide. Yet it remains unclear how both drivers interact to structure communities and determine patterns in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity at local scales. We focused on bird diversity and asked: how do precipitation and forest cover gradients interactively structure these elements of avian diversity? LOCATION: Guanacaste, North‐western Costa Rica. METHODS: We quantified changes in the abundance and composition of bird communities along independent gradients of regional precipitation, local forest cover and landscape forest cover that serve as proxies for climate drying and habitat conversion. We conducted point counts at 150 sites and statistically accounted for imperfect detection to test how environmental variation shaped community‐wide diversity metrics. RESULTS: We found that the three dimensions of diversity diverged in their responses to environmental gradients. Specifically, species richness increased linearly with precipitation, reached maximum values with intermediate tree cover at local scales and peaked at high levels of landscape tree cover. While phylogenetic diversity did not vary strongly across any gradient, functional diversity increased monotonically with both local and landscape‐level tree cover. Maximum values of functional diversity only occurred in large patches of forest where the tree cover was >75% at both local and landscape scales. Contrary to our expectations, we did not detect significant interactions between precipitation and tree cover gradients on any metric of local bird diversity. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that taxonomic diversity was more sensitive to environmental gradients than functional and phylogenetic diversity. The lack of synergies between precipitation and forest cover gradients on alpha diversity, at least in this system, simplifies the prospects of predicting future biodiversity change at local scales as our results suggest that climate change and land use act independently of one another.

Expanding human populations, combined with an increasingly variable climate, present challenges to the conservation of wide-ranging wildlife species, particularly for populations that persist in human-dominated landscapes. Although the movements and space use of many equid species have been well studied, comparable research of the Hartmann’s mountain zebra (HMZ) Equus zebra hartmannae, which primarily inhabits communal and commercial farming areas of Namibia, has been scarce and may limit conservation effectiveness. Here, we investigated the environmental and anthropogenic factors influencing HMZ movements and resource use across a large area of their range in northwestern Namibia. We deployed 6 GPS collars on HMZ during 2011 to 2013 and used integrated step selection functions to quantify HMZ movements and space use. HMZ movements averaged ~5 km d-1, and mean seasonal home range sizes were 681 and 256 km2 in the wet and dry season, respectively. HMZ selected for areas with high normalized difference vegetation index values (used as a proxy for primary production), particularly during the dry season, while avoiding areas further from water and closer to human settlements, although the effect was less apparent during the rainy season. Movement rates increased when HMZ crossed roads and were closer to roadways, but rates were not impacted by proximity to human activities. These results provide insights toward mitigating human-HMZ conflict. We highlight the difficulty a changing and less predictable climate creates for grazing species living in arid regions, as they must expend more energy and navigate dangers of a growing human footprint to seek out valuable but ephemeral forage.

Migration of ungulates (hooved mammals) is a fundamental ecological process that promotes abundant herds, whose effects cascade up and down terrestrial food webs. Migratory ungulates provide the prey base that maintains large carnivore and scavenger populations and underpins terrestrial biodiversity (fig. S1). When ungulates move in large aggregations, their hooves, feces, and urine create conditions that facilitate distinct biotic communities. The migrations of ungulates have sustained humans for thousands of years, forming tight cultural links among Indigenous people and local communities. Yet ungulate migrations are disappearing at an alarming rate (1). Efforts by wildlife managers and conservationists are thwarted by a singular challenge: Most ungulate migrations have never been mapped in sufficient detail to guide effective conservation. Without a strategic and collaborative effort, many of the world's great migrations will continue to be truncated, severed, or lost in the coming decades. Fortunately, a combination of animal tracking datasets, historical records, and local and Indigenous knowledge can form the basis for a global atlas of migrations, designed to support conservation action and policy at local, national, and international levels.

Relatively few studies have examined how the degree of involvement of local communities in nature‐based tourism, and the benefits that are generated for them, impact the choices that tourists make when visiting developing countries. We surveyed over 400 visitors in multiple locations in Namibia, using a discrete choice experiment to elicit preferences for attributes reflecting tracking safaris of the critically endangered, desert‐adapted black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis bicornis) in the northwest of the country. Attributes included those related to local community involvement and the benefits they receive from tourism, as well as the reinvestment of tourism profits back into rhino conservation, and the wildlife likely to be seen on safari. Using a latent class model that assigned tourists to market segments based on the observed pattern of responses in the choice experiment, we find that respondents can be divided into four classes that reflect differences in tourism preferences and their own demographics and experiences. While responses to attributes varied across classes, respondents were consistent in demonstrating a strong preference for the largest share of profits being returned to the local community, and were willing to pay an additional $43–670 to ensure this happens. Respondents in the four classes differed in their views toward the financing of rhino conservation and the participation of community trackers in rhino safaris, although those respondents in the class most interested in rhino tracking safaris were willing to pay an additional $34 per trip for tracker involvement. Our results demonstrate the value of assessing heterogeneity in tourists' preferences for wildlife experiences, and suggest that appropriate pricing and marketing may result in “triple bottom line” gains for nature‐based tourism.

The current biodiversity crisis involves major shifts in biological communities at local and regional scales. The consequences for Earth's life‐support systems are increasingly well‐studied, but knowledge of how community shifts affect cultural services associated with wildlife lags behind. We integrated bird census data (3 years across 150 point‐count locations) with questionnaire surveys (>400 people) to evaluate changes in culturally important species across climate and land‐use gradients in Costa Rica. For farmers, urbanites, and birdwatchers alike, species valued for identity, bequest, birdwatching, acoustic aesthetics, and education were more likely to occupy wetter regions and forested sites, whereas disliked species tended to occupy drier and deforested sites. These results suggest that regional climate drying and habitat conversion in the Neotropics are likely to threaten the most culturally important bird species. This study provides a novel and generalizable pathway for assessing the effects of environmental changes on cultural services and integrating the sociocultural and ecological dimensions of biodiversity.

In many savannah regions of Africa, pronounced seasonal variability in rainfall results in wildlife being restricted to floodplains and other habitats adjacent to permanent surface water in the dry season. During the wet season, rainfall fills small-scale, ephemeral water sources that allow wildlife to exploit forage and other resources far from permanent surface water. These water sources remain difficult to quantify, however, due to their small and ephemeral nature, and as a result are rarely included in quantitative studies of wildlife distribution, abundance, and movement. Our goal was to map ephemeral water in Bwabwata National Park in Namibia using two different approaches and to relate measures of ephemeral water to the abundance, distribution, and movement of two large wildlife species. We used high-resolution Google Earth and Esri World imagery to visually identify waterholes. Additionally, we used Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to map ephemeral water across the study area using the Normalized Difference Water Index. With these mapped waterhole layers and data from GPS-collared individuals of African elephant (Loxodonta africana) and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), we evaluated the importance of ephemeral water in conditioning abundance and movement of these two species. The two approaches to mapping ephemeral water resulted in the visual identification of nearly 10,000 waterholes, and a predicted ephemeral water layer of ~76% accuracy. The inclusion of ephemeral water into models of abundance and movement resulted in improved goodness of fit relative to those without water, and water impacts on abundance and movement were among the strongest of all variables considered. The potential importance of ephemeral water in conditioning the movements and distributions of large herbivores in African savannahs has been difficult to quantify relative to vegetation drivers. Our results suggest research into ephemeral water impacts deserves more attention.

Tourism may benefit conservation, but some wildlife viewing practices threaten the sustainability of both business and conservation initiatives. In north-west Namibia, conservation-oriented tourism provides tourists with an opportunity to encounter the critically-endangered black rhinoceros Diceros bicornis on foot. We used 123 tourist-rhinoceros encounters and employed a statistical modeling approach to: (1) identify the characteristics of human-rhinoceros encounters that caused rhinoceros disturbance and displacement; and (2) design rhinoceros-human encounter guidelines that improve sustainability. A model-averaging, information-theoretic approach identified tourist approach distance, viewing time and individual encounter exposure as the most significant predictors of rhinoceros disturbance level. A suite of rhinoceros viewing scenarios were modeled for acceptable disturbance risks, and adopted as a rhinoceros viewing policy. The policy reduced encounter displacements by 80% while maintaining a 95% positive feedback rating from guests. We demonstrate an evidence-based, policy-oriented management approach can help improve tourism's contribution towards the conservation of an endangered species.

While corridors in conservation have a long history of use, evaluations of proposed or existing corridors in conservation landscapes are important to avoid the same fate as poorly-functioning “paper parks”. We used resistance surface modeling and circuit theory to evaluate a number of corridors developed at regional and at local scales that aim to improve connectivity for large wildlife in the central part of the Kavango-Zambezi transfrontier conservation area. We used hourly GPS data from 16 collared African elephants (Loxodonta africana), and associated environmental data at used versus available movement paths, to develop a hierarchical Bayesian path selection function model. We used the resulting resistance surface across the study area as an input into circuit theory modeling to assess how well connectivity levels were captured by both types of corridors relative to several alternative scenarios. We found that the majority of regional-scale corridors performed relatively well at capturing elevated levels of connectivity relative to non-corridor comparisons, with 7 of 9 corridors rated as good or better in terms of how they captured electrical current levels (a proxy for connectivity). In contrast, only 14 of 33 smaller-scale, local corridors captured significantly higher levels of connectivity than adjacent non-corridor areas. Our results have practical implications for the design and implementation of wildlife connectivity conservation efforts in the world's largest transfrontier conservation landscape. Modern connectivity science approaches can help evaluate which proposed corridors are likely to function as intended, and which may need further refinement.

The functional trait diversity of species assemblages can predict the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination and carbon sequestration, but it is unclear whether the same trait‐based framework can be applied to identify the factors that underpin cultural ecosystem services and disservices. To explore the relationship between traits and the contribution of species to cultural ecosystem services and disservices, we conducted 404 questionnaire surveys with birdwatchers and local residents in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We used an information–theoretic approach to identify which of 20 functional traits for 199 Costa Rican bird species best predicted their cultural ecosystem service scores related to birdwatching, acoustic aesthetics, education and local identity, as well as disservices (e.g. harm to crops). We found that diet was the most important variable explaining perceptions of cultural ecosystem service and disservice providers. Aesthetic traits such as plumage colour and pattern were important in explaining birdwatching scores. We also found people have a high affinity for forest‐affiliated birds. The insight that functional traits can explain variation among cultural perspectives on values derived from birds offers a first step towards a trait‐based system for understanding the species attributes that underpin cultural ecosystem services and disservices.

Although a major portion of the planet’s land and sea is managed to conserve biodiversity, little is known about the extent, speed and patterns of adoption of conservation initiatives. We undertook a quantitative exploration of how area-based conservation initiatives go to scale by analysing the adoption of 22 widely recognized and diverse initiatives from across the globe. We use a standardized approach to compare the potential of different initiatives to reach scale. While our study is not exhaustive, our analyses reveal consistent patterns across a variety of initiatives: adoption of most initiatives (82% of our case studies) started slowly before rapidly going to scale. Consistent with diffusion of innovation theory, most initiatives exhibit slow–fast–slow (that is, sigmoidal) dynamics driven by interactions between existing and potential adopters. However, uptake rates and saturation points vary among the initiatives and across localities. Our models suggest that the uptake of most of our case studies is limited; over half of the initiatives will be taken up by

Migrations of most animal taxa are declining as a result of anthropogenic pressures and land-use transformation. Here, we document and characterize a previously unknown multi-country migration of Burchell's zebra Equus quagga that is the longest of all recorded large mammal migrations in Africa. Our data from eight adult female zebras collared on the border of Namibia and Botswana show that in December 2012 all individuals crossed the Chobe River and moved due south to Nxai Pan National Park in Botswana, where they spent a mean duration of 10 weeks before returning, less directly, to their dry season floodplain habitat. The same southward movements were also observed in December 2013. Nxai Pan appeared to have similar environmental conditions to several possible alternative wet season destinations that were closer to the dry season habitat on the Chobe River, and water availability, but not habitat or vegetation biomass, was associated with higher-use areas along the migratory pathway. These results suggest a genetic and/or cultural basis for the choice of migration destination, rather than an environmental one. Regardless of the cause, the round-trip, straight-line migration distance of 500 km is greater than that covered by wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus during their well-known seasonal journey in the Serengeti ecosystem. It merits conservation attention, given the decline of large-scale ecological processes such as animal migrations.

Despite the great cultural and economic benefits associated with birdwatching and other bird-related cultural ecosystem services (CES), little is known about the bird-related CES and disservices perceived by people, and how they differ across stakeholders and species. The goal of this study was to explore CES and disservices across three stakeholder groups in Northwestern Costa Rica. We conducted surveys (n = 404 total) in which we presented farmers (n = 140), urbanites (n = 149), and birdwatchers (n = 115) with illustrations and songs of bird species and collected participants’ ratings on items designed to measure multiple CES and disservices. We found bird-related CES and disservices were perceived as six different categories: identity, bequest, education, birdwatching, acoustic aesthetic, and disservices. The three stakeholder groups expressed varying preferences across services, disservices, and species. Specifically, birdwatchers ranked species higher in terms of their education scores and lower in disservices scores compared to the other two groups, whereas farmers scored species higher on identity scores compared to the other two groups. Farmers and urbanites had remarkably similar perceptions towards birds in general, but differed from birdwatchers. Our approach represents a novel method for assessing CES and disservices associated with species that can be adapted and modified for different taxa and multiple geographical contexts.

Population genetic structure is often used to infer population connectivity, but genetic structure may largely reflect historical rather than recent processes. We contrasted genetic structure with recent gene-flow estimates among 6 herds of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Caprivi Strip, Namibia, using 134 individuals genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. We tested whether historical and recent gene flows were influenced by distance, potential barriers (rivers), or landscape resistance (distance from water). We also tested at what scales individuals were more related than expected by chance. Genetic structure across the Caprivi Strip was weak, indicating that historically, gene flow was strong and was not affected by distance, barriers, or landscape resistance. Our analysis of simulated data suggested that genetic structure would be unlikely to reflect human disturbances in the last 10-20 generations (75-150 years) because of slow predicted rates of genetic drift, but recent gene-flow estimates would be affected. Recent gene-flow estimates were not consistently affected by rivers or distance to water but showed that isolation by distance appears to be developing. Average relatedness estimates among individuals exceeded random expectations only within herds. We conclude that historically, African buffalo moved freely throughout the Caprivi Strip, whereas recent gene flow has been more restricted. Our findings support efforts to maintain the connectivity of buffalo herds across this region and demonstrate the utility of contrasting genetic inferences from different time scales.

We propose the wildlife premium mechanism as an innovation to conserve endangered large vertebrates. The performance-based payment scheme would allow stakeholders in lower-income countries to generate revenue by recovering and maintaining threatened fauna that can also serve as umbrella species (i.e., species whose protection benefits other species with which they co-occur). There are 3 possible options for applying the premium: option 1, embed premiums in a carbon payment; option 2, link premiums to a related carbon payment, but as independent and legally separate transactions; option 3, link premiums to noncarbon payments for conserving ecosystem services (PES). Each option presents advantages, such as incentive payments to improve livelihoods of rural poor who reside in or near areas harboring umbrella species, and challenges, such as the establishment of a subnational carbon credit scheme. In Kenya, Peru, and Nepal pilot premium projects are now underway or being finalized that largely follow option 1. The Kasigau (Kenya) project is the first voluntary carbon credit project to win approval from the 2 leading groups sanctioning such protocols and has already sold carbon credits totaling over $1.2 million since June 2011. A portion of the earnings is divided among community landowners and projects that support community members and has added over 350 jobs to the local economy. All 3 projects involve extensive community management because they occur on lands where locals hold the title or have a long-term lease from the government. The monitoring, reporting, and verification required to make premium payments credible to investors include transparent methods for collecting data on key indices by trained community members and verification of their reporting by a biologist. A wildlife premium readiness fund would enable expansion of pilot programs needed to test options beyond those presented here.

Climate change is likely to affect the persistence of large, space-requiring species through habitat shifts, loss, and fragmentation. Anthropogenic land and resource use changes related to climate change can also impact the survival of wildlife. Thus, climate change has to be integrated into biodiversity conservation plans. We developed a hybrid approach to climate-adaptive conservation landscape planning for snow leopards in the Himalayan Mountains. We first mapped current snow leopard habitat using a mechanistic approach that incorporated field-based data, and then combined it with a climate impact model using a correlative approach. For the latter, we used statistical methods to test hypotheses about climatic drivers of treeline in the Himalaya and its potential response to climate change under three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We then assessed how change in treeline might affect the distribution of snow leopard habitat. Results indicate that about 30% of snow leopard habitat in the Himalaya may be lost due to a shifting treeline and consequent shrinking of the alpine zone, mostly along the southern edge of the range and in river valleys. But, a considerable amount of snow leopard habitat and linkages are likely to remain resilient to climate change, and these should be secured. This is because, as the area of snow leopard habitat fragments and shrinks, threats such as livestock grazing, retaliatory killing, and medicinal plant collection can intensify. We propose this approach for landscape conservation planning for other species with extensive spatial requirements that can also be umbrella species for overall biodiversity.

Summary 1. The conservation of biodiversity is increasingly justified by claims that human livelihoods are improved through its protection. Nature’s ecosystem services do indeed benefit people, but how necessary is a diversity of living things to provide these services? Most studies cited as addressing this question in natural systems do not actually quantify relevant metrics (e.g. species richness) and assess their relationship with services and ⁄ or economic benefits. On the other hand, numerous small-scale experimental studies have demonstrated that more diverse systems do indeed tend to function better, but the relevance of these results to much larger, more complex socio-ecological systems is unclear. 2. Here, we investigate how biodiversity affects the gains from two ecosystem services, trophy hunting and ecotourism, in communal conservancies of Namibia, an arid country in southern Africa. We used statistical methods to explicitly control for confounding variables so that the effect of biodiversity per se on financial benefits to local communities was isolated. 3. Our results show that biodiversity exerts a positive effect on the economic benefits generated from these two ecosystem services produced on communal lands in Namibia. The richness of large wildlife species is positively related to income derived from ecotourism and trophy hunting after statistically controlling for potentially confounding variables such as a conservancy’s geographic characteristics and human population size. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate that the conservation of biodiversity can indeed generate increased services from real-world ecosystems, in this case for the benefit of impoverished rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa. More such studies are needed from various ecological and socioeconomic contexts in order to boost the evidence base for positive effects of biodiversity on ecosystem services.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a popular conservation strategy, but their impacts on human welfare are poorly understood. To inform future research and policy decisions, we reviewed the scientific literature to assess MPA impacts on five indicators of human welfare: food security, resource rights, employ- ment, community organization, and income. Following MPA establishment, food security generally remained stable or increased in older and smaller MPAs. The ability of most fishing groups to govern MPA resources changed. Increased resource rights were positively correlated with MPA zoning and compliance with MPA regulations. Small sample sizes precluded statistical tests of the impacts of MPAs on employment, community organization, and income. Our results demonstrate that MPAs shape the social well-being and political power of fishing communities; impacts (positive and negative) vary within and among social groups; and social impacts are correlated with some—but not all—commonly hypothesized explanatory factors. Accordingly, MPAs may represent a viable strategy for enhancing food security and empowering local communities, but current practices negatively affect at least a minority of fishers. To inform policy making, further research must better document and explain variation in the positive and negative social impacts of MPAs.

There exist thousands of valuation studies for environmental goods and services, but the degree to which these have influenced policy is uncertain, especially in developing countries. Here, we demonstrate that a rapid assessment of the benefits of standing forests in the highlands of Borneo is feasible and can provide useful and timely information for conservation policy decisions. We used existing biophysical and economic information to characterize values associated with forests in areas proposed for oil palm plantation development. We focused on three classes of benefits: avoided damages associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions (carbon storage), avoided damages associated with increased fires, and the economic benefits of forest‐agriculture mosaics. Carbon storage values dominated the overall value of standing forests and were of similar magnitude to benefits from oil palm plantations. Other values were smaller but nevertheless important to different stakeholder groups. We document how the results were used to influence the Indonesian government’s policy on oil palm plantations in the highlands of Borneo. While we cannot quantify the precise policy impact of the valuation work, it appears to have played a role in the decision to shelve the oil palm project.

Nature provides a wide range of benefits to people. There is increasing consensus about the importance of incorporating these “ecosystem services” into resource management decisions, but quantifying the levels and values of these services has proven difficult. We use a spatially explicit modeling tool, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), to predict changes in ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, and commodity production levels. We apply InVEST to stakeholder-defined scenarios of land-use/land-cover change in the Willamette Basin, Oregon. We found that scenarios that received high scores for a variety of ecosystem services also had high scores for biodiversity, suggesting there is little tradeoff between biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. Scenarios involving more development had higher commodity production values, but lower levels of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. However, including payments for carbon sequestration alleviates this tradeoff. Quantifying ecosystem services in a spatially explicit manner, and analyzing tradeoffs between them, can help to make natural resource decisions more effective, efficient, and defensible.

Aim Twelve per cent of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is covered by protected areas, but neither these areas nor the biodiversity they contain are evenly distributed spatially. To guide future establishment of protected areas, it is important to understand the factors that have shaped the spatial arrangement of the current protected area system. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess the ability of vertebrate biodiversity measures, resource consumption and agricultural potential to explain the global coverage pattern of protected areas. Location Global. Methods For each of 762 World Wildlife Fund terrestrial ecoregions of the world, we measured protected area coverage, resource consumption, terrestrial vertebrate species richness, number of endemic species, number of threatened species, net primary production, elevation and topographic heterogeneity. We combined these variables into 39 a priori models to describe protected area coverage at the global scale, and for six biogeographical realms. Using the Akaike information criterion and Akaike weights, we identified the relative importance and influence of each variable in describing protected area coverage. Results Globally, the number of endemic species was the best variable describing protected area coverage, followed by the number of threatened species. Species richness and resource consumption were of moderate importance and agricultural potential had weak support for describing protected area coverage at a global scale. Yet, the relative importance of these factors varied among biogeographical realms. Measures of vertebrate biodiversity (species richness, endemism and threatened species) were among the most important variables in all realms, except the Indo-Malayan, but had a wide range of relative importance and influence. Resource consumption was inversely related to protected area coverage across all but one realm (the Palearctic), most strongly in the Nearctic realm. Agricultural potential, despite having little support in describing protected area coverage globally, was strongly and positively related to protection in the Palearctic and Neotropical realms, as well as in the Indo-Malayan realm. The Afrotropical, Indo-Malayan and Australasian realms showed no clear, strong relationships between protected area coverage and the independent variables. Main conclusions Globally, the existing protected area network is more strongly related to biodiversity measures than to patterns of resource consumption or agricultural potential. However, the relative importance of these factors varies widely among the world’s biogeographical realms. Understanding the biases of the current protected area system may help to correct for them as future protected areas are added to the global network.

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) can play an important role in the understanding of ecological systems. Although TEK has complemented scientific and managerial programs in a variety of contexts, its formal incorporation into remote sensing exercises has to date been limited. Here, we show that the vegetation classifications of the Ache, an indigenous hunter-gatherer tribe of the Mbaracayu Forest Reserve in Paraguay, are reflected in a supervised classification of satellite imagery of the reserve. Accuracy of classification was toward the low end of the range of published values, but was reasonable given the difficult nature of separating forest classes from satellite images. Comparison of the resultant map with a more traditionally elaborated vegetation map highlights differences between the two approaches and the gain in information obtained by considering TEK classifications. We suggest that integration of TEK and remote sensing may provide alternative insights into the ecology of vegetation communities and land cover, particularly in remote and densely forested areas where ecological field research is often limited by roads and/or trail systems.

We investigated whether impacts on boreal forest songbird communities in northwestern Alberta could be mitigated through a harvesting system that attempts to emulate the local natural disturbance regime. The EMEND (Ecosystem Management by Emulating Natural Disturbance) project is a multidisciplinary experiment to compare clearcuts and partial-retention cuts in four upland cover types with uncut forest and with experimentally burned stands. We studied breeding birds at EMEND between 1998 (pretreatment) and 2000, focusing on their responses to partial harvesting. Partial cuts were generally intermediate (and varied in a linear fashion) between clearcuts and undisturbed forest for community and species measures. Species that declined in abundance in partial cuts were typically dependent on shrubs and trees, whereas species that benefited were typically ground nesters. While partial cutting offered some advantages over clear-cutting in conserving short-term avian diversity, we suggest that low retention levels (i.e., 10%, 20%) cannot be justified from this perspective. The benefits that accrued in these treatments were relatively small, and species that declined or disappeared were typically characteristic of mature forest habitats. Higher retention levels (i.e., 50%, 75%) may conserve some species of concern, but the extent to which these treatments offer productivity advantages over lower residuals requires further study.

BRENDAN FISHER,∗†‡‡ ANDREW BALMFORD,‡ PAUL J. FERRARO,§ LOUISE GLEW,∗ MICHAEL MASCIA,∗ ROBIN NAIDOO,∗ AND TAYLOR H. RICKETTS∗∗ ∗Conservation Science Program, World Wildlife Fund-US, Washington, DC 20037, U.S.A. †Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, U.S.A. ‡Department of Zoology, Conservation Science Group, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom §Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, U.S.A. ∗∗Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05401, U.S.A.

We used data from over 100 countries to investigate the link between numbers of threatened species and per-capita gross national product. We corrected for factors that might otherwise confound such a relationship. Our study was motivated by the continuing debate over the relationship between environmental degradation and per-capita income. Proponents of the environmental Kuznets-curve hypothesis argue that although environmental degradation may increase initially, increases in per-capita income will eventually result in greater environmental quality. Theoretical objections and the lack of widespread empirical evidence recently have thrown doubt on the existence of such a pattern. Treating threat to biodiversity as one potential indicator of environmental degradation, we divided threatened species into seven taxonomic groups ( plants, mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, fishes, and invertebrates) and analyzed each group separately. Count-data regression analysis indicated that the number of threatened species was related to per-capita gross national product in five of seven taxonomic groups. Birds were the only taxonomic group in which numbers of threatened species decreased throughout the range of developed countries' per-capita gross national product. Plants, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates showed increasing numbers of threatened species throughout this same range. If these relationships hold, increasing numbers of species from several taxonomic groups are likely to be threatened with extinction as countries increase in prosperity. A key challenge is to understand the interactions among consumer preferences, biology, and institutions that lead to the relationship observed for birds and to see whether this knowledge can be applied to conservation of other taxa.

Factors affecting intraspecific variation in home range size have rarely been examined using modern statistical and remote sensing methods. This is especially true for animals in seasonal savanna environments in Africa, despite this biome’s importance for both conservation and development goals. We studied the impacts of spatial and temporal variability in environmental conditions, along with individual and social factors, on home range sizes in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in northeastern Namibia. Our data set spans 4 years, is derived from 32 satellite tracking collars, and contains over 35,000 GPS locations. We used the local convex hull method to estimate home range size from 31 buffalo captured at 6 sites. We used a variety of remotely sensed data to characterize potential anthropogenic and natural boundaries, as well as seasonal and temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions. Using an information-theoretic, mixed effects approach, our analyses showed that home ranges varied over two orders of magnitude and are among the largest recorded for this species. Variables relating to vegetation and habitat boundaries were more important than abiotic environmental conditions and individual or social factors in explaining variation in home range size. The relative contributions of environmental, individual, social, and linear boundary variables to intraspecific home range size have rarely been examined and prior to this had not been assessed for any species in seasonal savannas of Africa. Understanding the factors that condition space-use patterns of wildlife in this area will lead to better-informed conservation and sustainable development decisions.

Historical data are essential in fisheries management and conservation, especially for species that suffered significant population declines prior to ecological data collection. Within the field of historical marine ecology, studies have relied on anecdotal evidence, such as written accounts by explorers and interviews of different generations of resource users, to demonstrate the former abundance of certain species and the extent of their ranges. Yet, do we all agree on how these anecdotes are interpreted? This study examines the way that different people interpret anecdotes extracted from historical narratives. We outsource a survey to 50 randomly selected people using Amazon Mechanical Turk (www.mturk.com) and ask them to ‘code’ historical anecdotes based on their perceived abundance of species. We perform intercoder reliability tests to show that people's perceptions of historical anecdotes are generally consistent. The results speak to the reliability of using people's perceptions to acquire quantitative data, and provide novel insights into the use of anecdotal evidence to inform historical ecology.

Partial migration (when only some individuals in a population undertake seasonal migrations) is common in many species and geographical contexts. Despite the development of modern statistical methods for analyzing partial migration, there have been no studies on what influences partial migration in tropical environments. We present research on factors affecting partial migration in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in northeastern Namibia. Our dataset is derived from 32 satellite tracking collars, spans 4 years and contains over 35,000 locations. We used remotely sensed data to quantify various factors that buffalo experience in the dry season when making decisions on whether and how far to migrate, including potential man-made and natural barriers, as well as spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions. Using an information-theoretic, non-linear regression approach, our analyses showed that buffalo in this area can be divided into 4 migratory classes: migrants, non-migrants, dispersers, and a new class that we call "expanders". Multimodel inference from least-squares regressions of wet season movements showed that environmental conditions (rainfall, fires, woodland cover, vegetation biomass), distance to the nearest barrier (river, fence, cultivated area) and social factors (age, size of herd at capture) were all important in explaining variation in migratory behaviour. The relative contributions of these variables to partial migration have not previously been assessed for ungulates in the tropics. Understanding the factors driving migratory decisions of wildlife will lead to better-informed conservation and land-use decisions in this area.

It has become essential in policy and decision-making circles to think about the economic benefits (in addition to moral and scientific motivations) humans derive from wellfunctioning ecosystems. The concept of ecosystem services has been developed to address this link between ecosystems and human welfare. Since policy decisions are often evaluated through cost-benefit assessments, an economic analysis can help make ecosystem service research operational. In this paper we provide some simple economic analyses to discuss key concepts involved in formalizing ecosystem service research. These include the distinction between services and benefits, understanding the importance of marginal ecosystem changes, formalizing the idea of a safe minimum standard for ecosystem service provision, and discussing how to capture the public benefits of ecosystem services. We discuss how the integration of economic concepts and ecosystem services can provide policy and decision makers with a fuller spectrum of information for making conservation-conversion trade-offs. We include the results from a survey of the literature and a questionnaire of researchers regarding how ecosystem service research can be integrated into the policy process. We feel this discussion of economic concepts will be a practical aid for ecosystem service research to become more immediately policy relevant. © 2008 by the Ecological Society of America.