Heike K. Lotze, Jan Volkholz, Jacob Schewe, Susa Niiranen, David A. Carozza, Julia L. Blanchard, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tilla Roy, Charles A. Stock, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Steve Mackinson, Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, William W. L. Cheung, Matthias Büchner, Philippe Verley, Boris Worm, Miranda C. Jones, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Eric D. Galbraith, Jose A. Fernandes, Manuel Barange, Simon Jennings, Olivier Maury, Laurent Bopp, John P. Dunne, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tiago H. Silva, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Nicola D. Walker, Marta Coll, Jeroen Steenbeek, Catherine M. Bulman, Villy Christensen, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (UK), European Commission, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Australian Research Council, Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Montréal] (EPS), McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], GLOBEC IPO, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Laboratoire de physique des océans (LPO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, University of British Columbia (UBC), Institute of Marine Sciences / Institut de Ciències del Mar [Barcelona] (ICM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), CSIRO Marine and Atmosphere Research [Hobart], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), School of Geography, University of North London, Stockholm University, Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Food Science, FFUP, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Chimie des Interactions Plasma-Surface (ChIPS) (ChIPS), Université de Mons-Hainaut, Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl), Ministry of Defence (UK) (MOD), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), McGill University, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Spain] (CSIC)
6 pages, 5 figures, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116.-- All data reported in this paper are archived and publicly available at http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2956913., While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends, Financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through ISI-MIP (Grant01LS1201A1), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Grant 678193), and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G). We acknowledge additional financial support as follows: to H.K.L., W.W.L.C., and B.W. from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada; to D.P.T. from the Kanne Rasmussen Foundation Denmark; to A.B.-B. from the NSERC Transatlantic Ocean Science and Technology Program; to W.W.L.C. and T.D.E. from the Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program; to E.D.G., M.C. and J. Steenbeek from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Re-search and Innovation Program (Grants 682602 and 689518); to E.A.F., J.L.B., andT.R. from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and the Australian Research Council; to N.B., L.B., and O.M. from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche and Pôle de Calcul et de Données pour la Mer; and to S.J. from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs