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Terrestrial vegetation communities are experiencing rapid and novel changes to photosynthetic rates under the changing climate. Chaparral, a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem of the Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico, is projected to experience substantial increases in aridity and stochastic precipitation. This study identifies the primary meteorological drivers of photosynthesis for three widespread chaparral shrub species— Adenostoma sparsifolium, Adenostoma fasciculatum, and Ceanothus perplexans —from 2019 to 2021. Monthly leaf-level carbon exchange rates, water potentials (WPs), and meteorological conditions were collected for each species. Average monthly primary productivity ( n = 25) demonstrated vapor pressure deficit (VPD) as a significant limit to photosynthetic rates for A. sparsifolium and A. fasciculatum . VPD was also the most influential predictor of WP for all three species. These results suggest increasing atmospheric dryness as a key predictor for reduction in chaparral primary productivity, particularly for deeply-rooted, resprouting species. There are additional indications that VPD could exacerbate drought-related mortality for C. perplexans and A. sparsifolium by pushing WP to novel extremes. This study concludes that atmospheric dryness, across 3 years of differing soil water stress levels, was consistently a substantial physiological limitation for three common, chaparral species. Although this experiment occurred over a limited window and cannot assess climatic response trends, acute increases in air temperature and VPD within the region would exacerbate photosynthetic limitation for these species and may contribute to declining primary productivity in broader chaparral ecosystems.