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Over the past four decades, an increase in Dissolved Natural Organic Matter (DNOM) and colour, commonly referred to as browning, has been noted in numerous watercourses in the northern hemisphere. Understanding the fluctuations in DNOM quality is a prerequisite for gaining insights into the biogeochemical processes governing DNOM fluxes. Such knowledge is also pivotal for water treatment plants to effectively tailor their strategies for removing DNOM from raw water. The specific ultraviolet absorbance (sUVa) index has been a widely applied measurement for assessing DNOM quality. The sUVa index is the UV absorbance (OD254) of water normalized for DNOM concentration. We have used a long-term dataset spanning from 2007 to 2022, taken from the Malše River in South Bohemia, to model DNOM and the sUVa index. We have applied regression models with a process-oriented perspective and have also considered the influence of climate change. Both DNOM and the sUVa index is positively related to temperature, runoff and pH, and negatively related to ionic strength over the studied period. Two distinct model approaches were employed, both explaining about 40% of the variation in sUVa over the studied period. Based on a moderate IPCC monthly climate scenario, simulations indicate that both DNOM and the sUVa index averages remain fairly stable, with a slight increase in winter season minima projected towards the year 2099. A slight decline in summer season maxima is simulated for DNOM, while the sUVa summer maximum remain stable. These findings suggest a robust resilience in both DNOM and the sUVa index against anticipated changes in temperature and runoff for the Malše River in South Bohemia.