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Climate extremes have a significant impact on vegetation. However, little is known about vegetation response to climatic extremes in Bangladesh. The association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with nine extreme precipitation and temperature indices was evaluated to identify the nexus between vegetation and climatic extremes and their associations in Bangladesh for the period 1986-2017. Moreover, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and Morlet wavelet analysis (MWA) were employed to evaluate the possible future trends and decipher the existing periodic cycles, respectively in the time series of NDVI and climate extremes. Besides, atmospheric variables of ECMWF ERA5 were used to examine the casual circulation mechanism responsible for climatic extremes of Bangladesh. The results revealed that the monthly NDVI is positively associated with extreme rainfall with spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Warm temperature indices showed a significant negative association with NDVI on the seasonal scale, while precipitation and cold temperature extremes showed a positive association with yearly NDVI. The DEA revealed a continuous increase in temperature extreme in the future, while no change in precipitation extremes. NDVI also revealed a significant association with extreme temperature indices with a time lag of one month and with precipitation extreme without time lag. Spatial analysis indicated insensitivity of marshy vegetation type to climate extremes in winter. The study revealed that elevated summer geopotential height, no visible anticyclonic center, reduced high cloud cover, and low solar radiation with higher humidity contributed to climatic extremes in Bangladesh. The nexus between NDVI and climatic extremes established in this study indicated that increasing warm temperature extremes due to global warming might have severe implications on Bangladesh's ecology and the environment in the future., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Unraveling the drivers controlling community assembly is a central issue in ecology. Although it is generally accepted that selection, dispersal, diversification and drift are major community assembly processes, defining their relative importance is very challenging. Here, we present a framework to quantitatively infer community assembly mechanisms by phylogenetic bin-based null model analysis (iCAMP). iCAMP shows high accuracy (0.93-0.99), precision (0.80-0.94), sensitivity (0.82-0.94), and specificity (0.95-0.98) on simulated communities, which are 10-160% higher than those from the entire community-based approach. Application of iCAMP to grassland microbial communities in response to experimental warming reveals dominant roles of homogeneous selection (38%) and 'drift' (59%). Interestingly, warming decreases 'drift' over time, and enhances homogeneous selection which is primarily imposed on Bacillales. In addition, homogeneous selection has higher correlations with drought and plant productivity under warming than control. iCAMP provides an effective and robust tool to quantify microbial assembly processes, and should also be useful for plant and animal ecology.

Climate warming is expected to cause a poleward spread of species, resulting in increased richness at mid to high latitudes and weakening the latitudinal diversity gradient. We used pollen data to test if such a change in the latitudinal diversity gradient occurred during the last major poleward shift of plant species in Europe following the end of the last glacial period. In contrast to expectations, the slope of the gradient strengthened during the Holocene. The increase in temperatures around 10 ka ago reduced diversity at mid to high latitude sites due to the gradual closure of forests. Deforestation and the introduction of agriculture during the last 5 ky had a greater impact on richness in central Europe than the earlier climate warming. These results do not support the current view that global warming alone will lead to a loss in biodiversity, and demonstrate that non-climatic human impacts on the latitudinal diversity gradient is of a greater magnitude than climate change.

While average global temperatures are increasing, a disproportionate amount of warming can be attributed to increasing nighttime temperatures rather than increasing daytime temperatures. Theory predicts that the timing of warming can generate different effects on organisms and their interactions within ecosystems. This occurs because an organism's response to warming depends on the current temperature. For example, warming when temperatures are low may have positive effects on an organism, while warming when temperatures are already high may have negative effects on an organism. Most field experiments that examine the ecological effects of climate warming employ warming methodologies that disproportionately elevate daytime warming treatments. The bias towards daytime warming treatments may arise because daytime temperatures can be manipulated with relatively simple and inexpensive technology that capitalizes on solar energy, such as open-top chambers that create a "greenhouse effect" or shade structures that reduce temperatures. However, these popular methods are ineffective when solar radiation is absent, and thus do not create warming treatments that accurately mimic the temporal patterns of climate warming. To encourage the investigation of nighttime warming's effect on ecosystems, we discuss why daytime and nighttime warming may have different effects on organisms, then present a review of methods that can be employed to elevate nighttime temperature in terrestrial field experiments. For each method, we offer a brief explanation, an evaluation of its pros and cons, and citations for further reference, as well as empirical data when possible. While some are impractical, we attempt to provide a comprehensive list of potential nighttime warming methods in hopes of stimulating ideas and discussions.

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to become negative, causing population extinction, well before 100 years when warming is fast (e.g. 0.1°C per year). The Euler-Lotka equation predicts a slower decrease in rm when warming is slow and a longer persistence time when warming is fast, with the deviation between the two metrics increasing with increasing developmental period. These results suggest that predictions of ectotherm population viability based on rm may be valid only for species with short developmental delays, and even then, only over short time-scales and under slow warming regimes., (© 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.)

Metabolic theory predicts that demographic rates can be expressed as a function of environmental temperature. Amarasekare & Coutinho (2013) build a novel matrix model where demographic rates (fertility, mortality, development) vary according to expected rates of climate warming. They challenge recent studies that claim low population viability of tropical species based on rmax estimated from the Euler-Lotka equation, because the latter assumes a constant stage distribution that is unrealistic under fast rates of warming and for organisms with long development. In those cases, the measurement of the temperature responses of life-history traits could be based in niche theory., (© 2013 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.)

There is increasing pressure from policymakers for ecologists to generate more detailed 'attribution' analyses aimed at quantitatively estimating relative contributions of different driving forces, including anthropogenic climate change (ACC), to observed biological changes. Here, we argue that this approach is not productive for ecological studies. Global meta-analyses of diverse species, regions and ecosystems have already given us 'very high confidence' [sensu Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] that ACC has impacted wild species in a general sense. Further, for well-studied species or systems, synthesis of experiments and models with long-term observations has given us similarly high confidence that they have been impacted by regional climate change (regardless of its cause). However, the role of greenhouse gases in driving these impacts has not been estimated quantitatively. Should this be an ecological research priority? We argue that development of quantitative ecological models for this purpose faces several impediments, particularly the existence of strong, non-additive interactions among different external factors. However, even with current understanding of impacts of global warming, there are myriad climate change adaptation options already developed in the literature that could be, and in fact are being, implemented now., (© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951-2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500-1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500-2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Imagine a meeting convened to avert a global financial crisis where none of the finance ministers had access to reliable information on changes in the stock market, national gross domestic product or international trade flows. It is hardly conceivable. Yet the infinitely more existence-threatening planetary social and ecological crisis we refer to as 'global change' (comprising the linked issues of biogeochemical, climate, biotic and human system change) is in an analogous situation. Our information on the profound and accelerating changes currently depends to an unacceptable degree on serendipity, individual passion, redirected funding and the largely uncoordinated efforts of a few nations. The thesis of this paper is that navigation of the very narrow 'safe passages' that lie ahead requires a comprehensive and systematic approach to Earth observations, supported by a globally coordinated long-term funding mechanism. We developed the argument based on observations of the carbon cycle, because the issues there are compelling and easily demonstrated, but we believe the conclusions also to be true for many other types of observations relating to the state and management of the biosphere.

Investigated the nature and origins of early ideas about the environment held by children. Found that data explain aspects of the knowledge children have about various environments before they enter school, the development of this knowledge from ages 4 to 6, and young children's developing understanding of the impacts of environmental changes. (Author/SD)

Considerations regarding stabilizing the greenhouse effect (global warming) emphasize the difficulties in launching a comprehensive plan to deal with aspects of global change. Experience gained in dealing with atmospheric issues will help in developing a process that links management and research in solving global problems. (SLD)

Global warming modulates soil respiration (RS) via microbial decomposition, which is seasonally dependent. Yet, the magnitude and direction of this modulation remain unclear, partly owing to the lack of knowledge on how microorganisms respond to seasonal changes. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics of soil microbial communities over 12 consecutive months under experimental warming in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem. The interplay between warming and time altered (P

2022 marked the third consecutive La Niña and extended the longest consecutive stretch of negative Oceanic Niño Index since 1998-2001. While physical and biological conditions in winter and spring largely adhered to prior La Niña conditions, summer and fall were very different. Similar to past La Niña events, in winter and spring coastal upwelling was either average or above average, temperature average or below average, salinity generally above average. In summer and fall, however, upwelling and temperature were generally average or slightly below average, salinity was close to average and chlorophyll a was close to average. Again, as during prior La Niña events, biomass of northern/southern copepods was above/below average off Oregon in winter, and body size of North Pacific krill in northern California was above average in winter. By contrast, later in the year the abundance of northern krill dropped off Oregon while southern copepods increased and body sizes of North Pacific krill fell in northern California. Off Oregon and Washington abundances of market squid and Pacific pompano (indicators of warm, non-typical La Niña conditions) were high. In the 20th century, Northern anchovy recruitment tended to be high during cold conditions, but despite mostly warm conditions from 2015-2021 anchovy populations boomed and remained high in 2022. Resident seabird reproductive success, which tended in the past to increase during productive La Niña conditions was highly variable throughout the system as common murre and pelagic cormorant, experienced complete reproductive failure at Yaquina Head, Oregon while Brandt’s cormorant reproduction was average. At three sampling locations off central California, however, common murre reproduction was close to or above average while both pelagic and Brandt’s cormorant were above average. California sealion reproduction has been above average each year since 2016, and pup weight was also above average in 2022, likely in response not to La Niña or El Niño but continuous high abundance of anchovy. The highly variable and often unpredictable physical and biological conditions in 2022 highlight a growing recognition of disconnects between basin-scale indices and local conditions in the CCE. “July-December 2022 is the biggest outlier from individual “strong” La Niña (events) ever going back to the 50s.” – Nate Mantua

Background: The effects of climate change have been evident throughout all domains of health such as physical, social, environmental, and mental. However, the lack of perception made it a grey topic among the public. The aim of the study was to determine the perception of climate change on physical, environmental, and mental domains of health and to find the association between the physical, environmental, and mental effects of climate change and its basic characteristics. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in a cross-sectional design among the general population above 30 years in the field practice area [urban and rural] of tertiary care hospital Perambalur for a period of three months. The data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire and the interviewer method, which includes sociodemographic characteristics along with questions on the perception of climate change effects on mental, physical, and environmental aspects. The regression models were used to analyze the odds of perception among the subjects with respect to the various domains of characteristics. Results: The study included 877 participants, where the majority of subjects perceived the effects of climate change on physical, mental, and environmental domains of health. The odds of having a higher perception were significant in regression analysis among people with higher/school education, agriculture occupation, and rural residence (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Most of the study participants had an increased perception of climate change effects, making the subjects better candidates to impart adaptive strategies. Community-based programs have to be promoted to develop better comprehension and factual perception of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change has profound effects on species' distributions, and it is crucial to understand how well physiological limits correspond to distribution patterns to provide realistic estimations of future range shifts and/or extinctions. Seaweeds are foundation species of global coastal ecosystems, and sea surface temperature is a main predictor to explain their distributions and redistributions under global warming. We here test the hypothesis that, in contrast to other marine ectotherms, physiological knowledge of temperature niches is a weak predictor for seaweed distributions. Location: Global. Time Period: Present (1984–2019). Taxa: Seaweeds. Methods: We analysed the predictive power of physiological temperature limits to predict real‐world distributions in 126 globally distributed seaweed species with linear and generalized linear mixed models. Results: In 72% of the species, there was a difference of ≥|2|°C between the physiological and the realized thermal limits. Both, thermal underfilling (distributional thermal limits narrower than the physiological limits) and overfilling (distributional thermal limits wider than the physiological limits) were present. Thus, in only 28% of the species the physiological limits corresponded to the distributional limits. While heat‐tolerance is a significant predictor for upper distributional temperature limits, we found no relationship between cold‐tolerance and lower distributional temperature limits and the latter two seem to be independent. Main Conclusions: Physiological thermal limits have limited predictive power for seaweed distributions and deviations may be large. Especially cold‐tolerances are a weak predictor, and forecasting of migrations under changing global conditions (e.g. towards the poles) will need special attention. This indicates that responses towards climate change might be highly variable between seaweed species and difficult to predict. Further, nearly 60% of the investigated species had populations which are close to or beyond their reported upper survival limits and are thus probably under threat of eradication by elevation of sea surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using resources provided by the Bible, tradition, experience, and reason, a close look at magazine articles from the 2023 summer considers the reality of global warming. Scientists exploring a lake's strata, Canadian wildfires, phosphorous runoff, algal blooms, and Phoenix's string of high temperatures suggest we have entered the Anthropocene Era. The idea of domination borrowed from the first chapter of Genesis coupled with Aristotle's Great Chain of Being are used to encourage practices leading to global warming. Theological anomalies from this history raise questions about our continuing use of the triumphal metaphor of God as King of kings. A new ecological awareness and the metaphor of God's Body as the World re-animates theological conversation in this area. Theologians Jürgen Moltmann and Sallie McFague are helpful in this consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Fruit traits mediate animal-plant interactions and have to a large degree evolved to match the sensory capacities and morphology of their respective dispersers. At the same time, fruit traits are affected by local environmental factors, which may affect frugivore-plant trait match. Temperature has been identified as a major factor with a strong effect on the development of fruits, which is of serious concern because of the rising threat of global warming. Nonetheless, this primarily originates from studies on domesticated cultivars in often controlled environments. Little is known on the effect of rising temperatures on fruit traits of wild species and the implications this could have to seed dispersal networks, including downstream consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. In a case study of five plant species from eastern Madagascar, we addressed this using the elevation-for-temperature approach and examined whether a temperature gradient is systematically associated with variation in fruit traits relevant for animal foraging and fruit selection. We sampled across a gradient representing a temperature gradient of 1.5–2.6 °C, corresponding to IPCC projections. The results showed that in most cases there was no significant effect of temperature on the traits evaluated, although some species showed different effects, particularly fruit chemical profiles. This suggests that in these species warming within this range alone is not likely to drive substantial changes in dispersal networks. While no systemic effects were found, the results also indicate that the effect of temperature on fruit traits differs across species and may lead to mismatches in specific animal-plant interactions.

In the sixth assessment report, the IPCC indicates that global temperature increased by 1.11 (±0.13) degrees Celsius in 2019 due to 6.5 gigatons of CO2eq of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The power sector is a major global greenhouse gas emitter, particularly in Indonesia. Indonesia’s electricity sector emitted 149.90 million tons of CO2eq greenhouse gas in 2020, which is expected to increase to 158.30 million tons of CO2eq in 2021. Indonesia has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions according to the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement has been ratified into national law, accommodating Indonesia’s roadmap to net zero by 2060. The emissions reduction target was published in 2022 through the enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This study aims to analyze the impact of climate policy in Indonesia’s electricity sector to meet the net zero emissions target by 2060. Projection and calculation in this study were conducted using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). Data from 2020, including electricity demand, existing capacity, energy production, energy intensity, lifetime, and capacity factor, were used to support LEAP analysis. The data were obtained from the PLN statistical book, PLN sustainability report, Indonesia’s statistical book, and climate change mitigation and adaptation reports in Indonesia. This study developed three climate scenarios, including business as usual (BAU), sustainable development (SD), and low-carbon development (LCD). These scenarios draw upon current climate policies that have various impacts on electricity generation in Indonesia. Based on LEAP analysis, by 2060, energy demand is expected to increase to 300.36 MTOE (BAU), 200.93 MTOE (SD), and 76.97 MTOE (LCD). Consequently, each climate scenario requires an increase in installed capacity to 821.82 GW (BAU), 727.06 GW (SD), and 334.58 GW (LCD). The renewable energy mix is projected to be 21% (BAU), 69% (SD), and 100% (LCD). Each scenario requires investment to develop capacity to meet energy demand. The investment cost is estimated to be 1,671.58 million USD (BAU), 1,537.64 million USD (SD), and 816.51 million USD (LCD). GHG emissions are projected to rise to 1,746.31 million tons of CO2eq (BAU) and 264.39 million tons of CO2eq (SD). However, the LCD scenario expects to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has an unprecedented impact on ecosystems and their services, with severe consequences for human well‐being, particularly for the marginalised and vulnerable members of society in the Global South. The well‐being of communities relies not only on material and regulating services ecosystems provide but also on non‐material services. In this paper, we unravel the diverse ways that climate change impacts affect Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and the well‐being of rural populations in four sites in Madagascar—a biodiversity hotspot but one of the economically poorest countries in the world. We conducted participatory community workshops, mapping and semi‐structured interviews with local residents across social subgroups to understand the mechanisms of climate‐related degradation and the resulting impacts on different dimensions of human well‐being through an NCP lens. We found that non‐material services are generally more often associated with well‐being effects. Climate change degrades material and non‐material services through sea level rise, biodiversity loss, drought, precipitation and temperature variability, with consequences for materials, companionship and labour, food and feed, and physical and psychological experiences. Loss of land and forests is expressed through ecological grief. The outcome of our research provides evidence‐based information to local policymakers, conservation practitioners, and climate change agencies. This information can help improve government efforts toward holistic conservation and climate change adaptation by addressing the impacts on the physical and mental well‐being of the most vulnerable communities. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Using the liverwort Hygrobiella laxiflora as an example, this study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on montane species and their ecosystems. The study area is the Elbe Sandstone Mountains in Germany and the Czech Republic, where Hygrobiella laxifolia has an isolated occurrence in deeply carved gorges characterized by a specific microclimate (cellar climate). The focus is on determining the rate at which populations are affected. After little change in the population over a long period, a sudden sharp decline has been observed in recent years. The decline correlates with the mass proliferation of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) observed since 2017, which has led to a strong thinning of the forests in the area. In many areas of occurrence, the forests now have a much sparser tree layer or none at all. Competition from other, more competitive species also plays an important role as a cause of decline, as these have spread more widely on the sites due to the now higher light levels. The severe bark beetle infestation and the large-scale forest fire of 2022 both represent events that led to the almost complete deforestation of large parts of the study area, which was previously unknown on this scale. Since both the bark beetle infestation and the forest fire are strongly intensified by climate change, we assume that climate change is the main reason for the decline of Hygrobiella laxifolia in the area. The populations of Hygrobiella laxifolia of the Elbe Sandstone Mountains show some morphological peculiarities. As two new species have recently been described within Hygrobiella, we have integrated a sample from the area into a molecular phylogeny of Hygrobiella based on the plastid sequences of trnL-trnF intergenic spacer and matK to clarify the relationships. The sample from Elbe Sandstone Mountains fits well into the clade of Hygrobiella laxifolia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The small mammalian fauna plays pivotal roles in ecosystem dynamics and as crucial biodiversity indicators. However, recent research has raised concerns about the decline of mammalian species due to climate change. Consequently, significant attention is directed toward studying various big flagship mammalian species for conservation. However, small mammals such as the hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) remain understudied regarding the impacts of climate change in Asia. The present study offers a comprehensive analysis of climate change effects on two mainland hog badger species, utilizing ensemble species distribution modeling. Findings reveal concerning outcomes, as only 52% of the IUCN extent is deemed suitable for the Great Hog Badger (Arctonyx collaris) and a mere 17% is ideal for the Northern Hog Badger (Arctonyx albogularis). Notably, projections suggest a potential reduction of over 26% in suitable areas for both species under future climate scenarios, with the most severe decline anticipated in the high‐emission scenario of SSP585. These declines translate into evident habitat fragmentation, particularly impacting A. collaris, whose patches shrink substantially, contrasting with the relatively stable patches of A. albogularis. However, despite their differences, niche overlap analysis reveals an intriguing increase in overlap between the two species, indicating potential ecological shifts. The study underscores the importance of integrating climate change and habitat fragmentation considerations into conservation strategies, urging a reassessment of the IUCN status of A. albogularis. The insights gained from this research are crucial for improving protection measures by ensuring adequate legal safeguards and maintaining ecological corridors between viable habitat patches, which are essential for the conservation of hog badgers across mainland Asia. Furthermore, emphasizing the urgency of proactive efforts, particularly in countries with suitable habitats can help safeguard these small mammalian species and their ecosystems from the detrimental impacts of climate change.