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West Papua’s Bintuni Bay is Indonesia’s largest contiguous mangrove block, only second to the world’s largest mangrove in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh. As almost 40% of these mangroves are designated production forest, we assessed the effects of commercial logging on forest structure, biomass recovery, and soil carbon stocks and burial in five-year intervals, up to 25 years post-harvest. Through remote sensing and field surveys, we found that canopy structure and species diversity were gradually enhanced following biomass recovery. Carbon pools preserved in soil were supported by similar rates of carbon burial before and after logging. Our results show that mangrove forest management maintained between 70 and 75% of the total ecosystem carbon stocks, and 15–20% returned to the ecosystem after 15–25 years. This analysis suggests that mangroves managed through selective logging provide an opportunity for coastal nature-based climate solutions, while provisioning other ecosystem services, including wood and wood products.

The carbon-dense peatlands of Indonesia are a landscape of global importance undergoing rapid land-use change. Here, peat drained for agricultural expansion increases the risk of large-scale uncontrolled fires. Several solutions to this complex environmental, humanitarian and economic crisis have been proposed, such as forest protection measures and agricultural support. However, numerous programmes have largely failed. Bundles of interventions are proposed as promising strategies in integrated approaches, but what policy interventions to combine and how to align such bundles to local conditions remains unclear. We evaluate the impact of two types of interventions and of their combinations, in reducing fire occurrence through driving behavioural change: incentives (i.e. rewards that are conditional on environmental performance), and deterrents (e.g. sanction, soliciting concerns for health). We look at the impact of these interventions in 10 villages with varying landscape and fire-risk contexts in Sumatra, Indonesia. A private-led implementation of a standardised programme allows us to study outcome variability through a natural experiment design. We conduct a systematic cross-case comparison to identify the most effective combinations of interventions, using two-step qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and geospatial and socio-economic survey data (n = 303). We analysed the combined influence of proximate conditions (interventions, e.g. fear of sanction) and remote ones (context; e.g. extent of peat soil) on fire outcomes. We show how, depending on the level of risk in the pre-existing context, certain bundles of interventions are needed to succeed. We found that, despite the programme being framed as rewards-based, people were not responding to the reward alone. Rather sanctions and soliciting concern appeared central to fire prevention, raising important equity implications. Our results contribute to the emerging global interest in peat fire mitigation, and the rapidly developing literature on PES performance.

The links between plantation expansion and deforestation in Borneo are debated. We used satellite imagery to map annual loss of old‐growth forests, expansion of industrial plantations (oil palm and pulpwood), and their overlap in Borneo from 2001 to 2017. In 17 years, forest area declined by 14% (6.04 Mha), including 3.06 Mha of forest ultimately converted into industrial plantations. Plantations expanded by 170% (6.20 Mha: 88% oil palm; 12% pulpwood). Most forests converted to plantations were cleared and planted in the same year (92%; 2.83 Mha). Annual forest loss generally increased before peaking in 2016 (0.61 Mha) and declining sharply in 2017 (0.25 Mha). After peaks in 2009 and 2012, plantation expansion and associated forest conversion have been declining in Indonesia and Malaysia. Annual plantation expansion is positively correlated with annual forest loss in both countries. The correlation vanishes when we consider plantation expansion versus forests that are cleared but not converted to plantations. The price of crude palm oil is positively correlated with plantation expansion in the following year in Indonesian (not Malaysian) Borneo. Low palm oil prices, wet conditions, and improved fire prevention all likely contributed to reduced 2017 deforestation. Oversight of company conduct requires transparent concession ownership.

Worldwide many businesses have recently pledged to sourcing agricultural and timber products exclusively from deforestation and fire-free supply chains. Geoinvestigations—monitoring the activities of plantation companies using satellites and concession maps—are now applied to identify which companies breach their commitments and regulations. We investigate the limitations of geoinvestigations by analyzing land-use and fire in and around 163 Indonesian concessions of oil-palm and pulpwood, where recurring forest and peatland fires are a national and international concern. We reveal a mismatch between de jure and de facto land occupancy inside and outside concessions. Independent farmers are present in concessions while some companies expand outside concessions. Thus, both actors may be responsible for deforestation and fire inside and outside concessions. On peatland, fire can start outside and spread into concessions, while draining in concessions may promote fire outside. These dynamics make attribution of fire and deforestation in Indonesian concessions impossible without detailed field investigations. This study highlights the need to combine very high-resolution satellite data with extensive field investigations of de facto land ownership, claims and disputes inside and outside concessions. In Indonesia, such activities could fall under the One Map Policy, whose remit is to identify and resolve overlapping land claims.

When development impacts a broad landscape and causes the loss of multiple ecosystem services, decisions about which of these impacts to offset must be made. We use industrial oil-palm developments in Kalimantan and quantify the potential for restoration to offset oil-palm impacts on carbon storage and biodiversity. We developed a unique backcasting approach combined with a spatial conservation prioritisation framework to identify priority areas for restoration offsetting. We calculated the past impacts of oil-palm development, quantified the future benefits of restoration for carbon storage and biodiversity over one oil-palm planting cycle of 25 years, and prioritised areas for restoration to balance the impacts and benefits for the least cost. We estimate that offsetting the carbon emissions attributable to the existing 4.6 Mha of industrial oil-palm plantation in Kalimantan is most cost-effectively achieved by restoring 0.4–1.6 Mha of degraded peatlands, including failed agricultural projects, at a cost of US$0.7–2.9 billion. On the other hand, offsetting biodiversity losses would require at least 4.7 Mha of degraded areas to be restored (equating to 8.7% of Kalimantan) at a cost of US$7.7 billion. We show that priority areas for offsetting biodiversity losses overlap poorly with those for compensating carbon emissions. Our analysis suggests that reconciling multiple impacts at landscape scales will necessitate difficult choices among contested socio-political preferences. Our findings also clarify the fundamental importance of conserving biodiversity-rich primary forests and peatlands in the tropics and the need to avoid converting these areas in the future.

Aim: We demonstrate a robust approach for predicting and mapping threats and population trends of wildlife species, invaluable for understanding where to target conservation resources. We used the endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) as our case study to facilitate and strengthen conservation efforts by the Indonesian government to stabilize populations by 2017. Location: Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. Methods: Local knowledge of threats to orangutan populations was gathered through questionnaire interviews in 531 villages (512 in Kalimantan) within known orangutan range. These data were integrated with 39 environmental/socio-economic spatial variables using boosted regression tree modelling to predict threat levels and population trends across Kalimantan and to identify key combinations of threats and trends that can help to direct appropriate conservation actions. Results: Nineteen percentage of villages surveyed in Kalimantan reported human-orangutan conflicts. High-predicted conflict likelihood was extensive, strongly associated with road density (very low or high) and temperature seasonality. Recent orangutan killings were reported in 23% of villages. High killing risk was highly associated with greater surrounding orangutan habitat and for villages more than 60 km from oil palm plantations. Killings by respondents were reported in 20% of villages with higher likelihoods associated with greater range in rainfall and temperature, and higher proportion of Christian believers. Orangutan populations were predicted to decline/become locally extinct across the majority of their range in Kalimantan over the next decade, with few regions predicted to support stable populations. Main conclusions: Human-orangutan conflicts and killings occur extensively in Kalimantan, with many populations at risk of decline or localized extinctions. Effective conservation actions are therefore urgently needed. Our approach better informs conservation managers in understanding the extent, spatial patterns and drivers of threats to endangered species such as the orangutan. This is essential to better design management strategies that can minimize or avert the species' decline.

The first International Peat Congress (IPC) held in the tropics – in Kuching (Malaysia) – brought together over 1000 international peatland scientists and industrial partners from across the world (“International Peat Congress with over 1000 participants!,” 2016). The congress covered all aspects of peatland ecosystems and their management, with a strong focus on the environmental, societal and economic challenges associated with contemporary large-scale agricultural conversion of tropical peat.

© 2017 The Author(s) Forest-driven water and energy cycles are poorly integrated into regional, national, continental and global decision-making on climate change adaptation, mitigation, land use and water management. This constrains humanity's ability to protect our planet's climate and life-sustaining functions. The substantial body of research we review reveals that forest, water and energy interactions provide the foundations for carbon storage, for cooling terrestrial surfaces and for distributing water resources. Forests and trees must be recognized as prime regulators within the water, energy and carbon cycles. If these functions are ignored, planners will be unable to assess, adapt to or mitigate the impacts of changing land cover and climate. Our call to action targets a reversal of paradigms, from a carbon-centric model to one that treats the hydrologic and climate-cooling effects of trees and forests as the first order of priority. For reasons of sustainability, carbon storage must remain a secondary, though valuable, by-product. The effects of tree cover on climate at local, regional and continental scales offer benefits that demand wider recognition. The forest- and tree-centered research insights we review and analyze provide a knowledge-base for improving plans, policies and actions. Our understanding of how trees and forests influence water, energy and carbon cycles has important implications, both for the structure of planning, management and governance institutions, as well as for how trees and forests might be used to improve sustainability, adaptation and mitigation efforts. publisher: Elsevier articletitle: Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world journaltitle: Global Environmental Change articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.01.002 content_type: article copyright: © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. ispartof: Global Environmental Change vol:43 pages:51-61 status: published

Tropical rainforests, naturally resistant to fire when intact, are increasingly vulnerable to burning due to ongoing forest perturbation and, possibly, climatic changes. Industrial-scale forest degradation and conversion are increasing fire occurrence, and interactions with climate anomalies such as El Nino induced droughts can magnify the extent and severity of fire activity. The influences of these factors on fire frequency in tropical forests has not been widely studied at large spatio-temporal scales at which feedbacks between fire reoccurrence and forest degradation may develop. Linkages between fire activity, industrial land use, and El Nino rainfall deficits are acute in Borneo, where the greatest tropical fire events in recorded history have apparently occurred in recent decades. Here we investigate how fire frequency in Borneo has been influenced by industrial-scale agricultural development and logging during El Nino periods by integrating long-term satellite observations between 1982 and 2010 – a period encompassing the onset, development, and consolidation of its Borneo’s industrial forestry and agricultural operations as well as the full diversity of El Nino events. We record changes in fire frequency over this period by deriving the longest and most comprehensive spatio-temporal record of fire activity across Borneo using AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC) satellite data. Monthly fire frequency was derived from these data and modelled at 0.04° resolution via a random-forest model, which explained 56% of the monthly variation as a function of oil palm and timber plantation extent and proximity, logging intensity and proximity, human settlement, climate, forest and peatland condition, and time, observed using Landsat and similar satellite data. Oil-palm extent increased fire frequency until covering 20% of a grid cell, signalling the significant influence of early stages of plantation establishment. Heighted fire frequency was particularly acute within 10 km of oil palm, where both expanding plantation and smallholder agriculture are believed to be contributing factors. Fire frequency increased abruptly and dramatically when rainfall fell below 200 mm month-1, especially as landscape perturbation increased (indicated by vegetation index data). Logging intensity had a negligible influence on fire frequency, including on peatlands, suggesting a more complex response of logged forest to burning than appreciated. Over time, the epicentres of high-frequency fires expanded from East Kalimantan (1980’s) to Central and West Kalimantan (1990’s), coincidentally but apparently slightly preceding oil-palm expansion, and high-frequency fires then waned in East Kalimantan and occurred only in Central and West Kalimantan (2000’s). After accounting for land-cover changes and climate, our model under-estimates observed fire frequency during ca. 1990–2002 and over-estimates it thereafter, suggesting that a multi-decadal shift to industrial forest conversion and forest landscapes may have diminished the propensity for high-frequency fires in much of this globally significant tropical region since ca. 2000.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a contagious, severe and often lethal form of hemorrhagic fever in humans. The association of EVD outbreaks with forest clearance has been suggested previously but many aspects remained uncharacterized. We used remote sensing techniques to investigate the association between deforestation in time and space, with EVD outbreaks in Central and West Africa. Favorability modeling, centered on 27 EVD outbreak sites and 280 comparable control sites, revealed that outbreaks located along the limits of the rainforest biome were significantly associated with forest losses within the previous 2 years. This association was strongest for closed forests (>83%), both intact and disturbed, of a range of tree heights (5–>19 m). Our results suggest that the increased probability of an EVD outbreak occurring in a site is linked to recent deforestation events, and that preventing the loss of forests could reduce the likelihood of future outbreaks.

The biodiversity hotspots are 35 biogeographical regions that have both exceptional endemism and extreme threats to their vegetation integrity, and as such are global conservation priorities. Nonetheless, prior estimates of natural intact vegetation (NIV) in the hotspots are generally imprecise, indirect, coarse, and/or dated. Using moderate- and high-resolution satellite imagery as well as maps of roads, settlements, and fires, we estimate the current extent of NIV for the hotspots. Our analysis indicates that hotspots retain 14.9% of their total area as NIV (�3,546,975 km 2 ). Most hotspots have much less NIV than previously estimated, with half now having 610% NIV by area, a threshold beneath which mean NIV patch area declines precipitously below 1000 ha. Hotspots with the greatest previous NIV estimates suffered the greatest apparent losses. The paucity of NIV is most pronounced in biomes dominated by dry forests, open woodlands, and grasslands, reflecting their historic affinities with agriculture, such that NIV tends to concentrate in select biomes. Low and declining levels of NIV in the hotspots underscore the need for an urgent focus of limited conservation resources on these biologically crucial regions.

Spatially explicit information on local perceptions of ecosystem services is needed to inform land use planning within rapidly changing landscapes. In this paper we spatially modelled local people's use and perceptions of benefits from forest ecosystem services in Borneo, from interviews of 1837 people in 185 villages. Questions related to provisioning, cultural/spiritual, regulating and supporting ecosystem services derived from forest, and attitudes towards forest conversion. We used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to combine interview data with social and environmental predictors to understand spatial variation of perceptions across Borneo. Our results show that people use a variety of products from intact and highly degraded forests. Perceptions of benefits from forests were strongest: in human-altered forest landscapes for cultural and spiritual benefits; in human-altered and intact forests landscapes for health benefits; intact forest for direct health benefits, such as medicinal plants; and in regions with little forest and extensive plantations, for environmental benefits, such as climatic impacts from deforestation. Forest clearing for small scale agriculture was predicted to be widely supported yet less so for large-scale agriculture. Understanding perceptions of rural communities in dynamic, multi-use landscapes is important where people are often directly affected by the decline in ecosystem services.

Several studies suggest that protected areas conserve forests because deforestation rates are lower inside than outside protected area boundaries. Such benefits may be overestimated when deforestation rates within protected areas are contrasted with rates in lands where forest conversion is sanctioned. Here, we reexamine protected area performance by disentangling the effects of land use regulations surrounding the 110,000 km 2 protected area network in Sumatra, Indonesia.

The Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park in southern Sumatra (Indonesia) has been on the UNESCO list of World Heritage Sites since 2004. Home to tigers, elephants, and rare Sumatran rhinos, the Park is also home to numerous squatters since the early 1970s. Part of the Park was restored after forcible evictions in the 1980s. However, since the end of General Suharto's authoritarian rule in 1998, the number of squatters has been on the increase. This paper provides for the first time a reliable estimation of the number of people encroaching in the Park and presents a profile of the various kinds of squatters living in and around the Park. It shows that all encroachments are not alike, nor are the squatters. Poor landless migrants side with opportunists taking advantage of weak law enforcement, while local politicians try to build a constituency by backing illegal activities in the Park. As a consequence, any action to salvage the Park will have to take into account the complexity of the political ecology, policy environment, and socio-economic nature of each encroachment.

Aim This study determines whether the establishment of tropical protected areas (PAs) has led to a reduction in deforestation within their boundaries or whether deforestation has been displaced to adjacent unprotected areas: a process termed neighbourhood leakage. Location Sumatra, Indonesia. Methods We processed and analysed 98 corresponding LANDSAT satellite images with a c. 800 m2 resolution to map deforestation from 1990 to 2000 across 440,000 km2 on the main island of Sumatra and the smaller island of Siberut. We compared deforestation rates across three categories of land: (1) within PAs; (2) in adjacent unprotected land lying with 10 km of PA boundaries; and (3) within the wider unprotected landscape. We used the statistical method of propensity score matching to predict the deforestation that would have been observed had there been no PAs and to control for the generally remote locations in which Sumatran PAs were established. Results During the period 1990–2000 deforestation rates were found to be lower inside PAs than in adjacent unprotected areas or in the wider landscape. Deforestation rates were also found to be lower in adjacent unprotected areas than in the wider landscape. Main conclusions Sumatran PAs have lower deforestation rates than unprotected areas. Furthermore, a reduction in deforestation rates inside Sumatran PAs has promoted protection, rather than deforestation, in adjacent unprotected land lying within 10 km of PA boundaries. Despite this positive evaluation, deforestation and logging have not halted within the boundaries of Sumatran PAs. Therefore the long-term viability of Sumatran forests remains open to question.

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal\ud habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang-utan, we identify\ud environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture\ud suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to\ud predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models\ud incorporating only land-cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated\ud projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial\ud deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified\ud by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm – a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate\ud that in 2010 up to 260 000 km2 of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang-utan range; an 18–24%\ud reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15–30% by the 2080s. Although habitat\ud extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in northeastern\ud and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but\ud 74% when also considering land-cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000–42 000 km2 depending on thresholds\ud used, with 900–17 000 km2 outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could\ud mediate some orang-utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected\ud changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation\ud efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental\ud changes expected this century.

In the current context of global deforestation and global warming, a wide range of organisations, with local to international remits, need estimates of forest biomass to assess the state of the World’s forests and their rate of change. The task would be impossible without space-based Earth observation, which allows the rapid generation of extensive data sets describing land surface properties. It is the task of remote sensing scientists to interpret these data into a meaningful source of forest information. Here, a fast and easily automated method for classifying boreal forests in terms of growing stock volume is presented. The work was conducted as part of the SIBERIA project, which has resulted in the recent publication of a map of forest growing stock volume covering 900 000 km2 in Central Siberia. The paper describes the use of satellite-based radar coherence to differentiate categories of forest growing stock volume, the application of this method to classify and map Central Siberian forests, and the characterisation of the forest classes to help in the interpretation. A list of acronyms and abbreviations used in the text is provided in Appendix A .

Summary 1Vegetation height across a 157-ha deciduous woodland was estimated using an airborne remote-sensing technique, airborne laser scanning (ALS), and the data obtained were used to produce a three-dimensional map of the canopy surface of the entire wood. 2Field-based estimates of a tree canopy density index were compared with mean vegetation height calculated from the ALS data for sample areas of 54 × 54 m2 centred on each of 36 nestboxes within the wood. Canopy density index increased with mean vegetation height, such that height explained 86% of the variation in the density index. Thus remote-sensed height could be used as a surrogate for the field-based estimates. 3Mean chick masses (mass being used as a measure of habitat quality) for Great Tits (Parus major L.) and Blue Tits (P. caeruleus L.) using the boxes were also examined in relation to the ALS mean vegetation height for the same sample areas. 4For Blue Tits, mean chick mass at 11 days of age increased with vegetation height around the nestbox, but for Great Tits, the relationship was negative. Possible reasons for this difference are discussed, but the results should be treated with caution because sample sizes were small. 5The application of ALS in woodland ecology is discussed.

The native forests of Borneo have been impacted by selective logging, fire, and conversion to plantations at unprecedented scales since industrial-scale extractive industries began in the early 1970s. There is no island-wide documentation of forest clearance or logging since the 1970s. This creates an information gap for conservation planning, especially with regard to selectively logged forests that maintain high conservation potential. Analysing LANDSAT images, we estimate that 75.7% (558,060 km2) of Borneo's area (737,188 km2) was forested around 1973. Based upon a forest cover map for 2010 derived using ALOS-PALSAR and visually reviewing LANDSAT images, we estimate that the 1973 forest area had declined by 168,493 km2 (30.2%) in 2010. The highest losses were recorded in Sabah and Kalimantan with 39.5% and 30.7% of their total forest area in 1973 becoming non-forest in 2010, and the lowest in Brunei and Sarawak (8.4%, and 23.1%). We estimate that the combined area planted in industrial oil palm and timber plantations in 2010 was 75,480 km2, representing 10% of Borneo. We mapped 271,819 km of primary logging roads that were created between 1973 and 2010. The greatest density of logging roads was found in Sarawak, at 0.89 km km-2, and the lowest density in Brunei, at 0.18 km km-2. Analyzing MODIS-based tree cover maps, we estimate that logging operated within 700 m of primary logging roads. Using this distance, we estimate that 266,257 km2 of 1973 forest cover has been logged. With 389,566 km2 (52.8%) of the island remaining forested, of which 209,649 km2 remains intact. There is still hope for biodiversity conservation in Borneo. Protecting logged forests from fire and conversion to plantations is an urgent priority for reducing rates of deforestation in Borneo.

This study seeks to understand children's perceptions of their present and future environments in the highly biodiverse and rapidly changing landscapes of Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. We analyzed drawings by children (target age 10-15 years) from 22 villages, which show how children perceive the present conditions of forests and wildlife surrounding their villages and how they expect conditions to change over the next 15 years. Analyses of picture elements and their relationships to current landscape variables indicate that children have a sophisticated understanding of their environment and how different environmental factors interact, either positively or negatively. Children appear to have landscape-dependent environmental perceptions, showing awareness of past environmental conditions and many aspects of recent trends, and translating these into predictions for future environmental conditions. The further removed their present landscape is from the originally forested one, the more environmental change they expect in the future, particularly declines in forest cover, rivers, animal diversity and increases in temperature and natural disasters. This suggests that loss of past perceptions and associated "shifting environmental baselines" do not feature strongly among children on Borneo, at least not for the perceptions we investigated here. Our findings that children have negative expectations of their future environmental conditions have important political implications. More than other generations, children have a stake in ensuring that future environmental conditions support their long-term well-being. Understanding what drives environmental views among children, and how they consider trade-offs between economic development and social and environmental change, should inform optimal policies on land use. Our study illuminates part of the complex interplay between perceptions of land cover and land use change. Capturing the views of children through artistic expressions provides a potentially powerful tool to influence public and political opinions, as well as a valuable approach for developing localized education and nature conservation programs.

Combining protected areas with natural forest timber concessions may sustain larger forest landscapes than is possible via protected areas alone. However, the role of timber concessions in maintaining natural forest remains poorly characterized. An estimated 57% (303,525 km2) of Kalimantan's land area (532,100 km2) was covered by natural forest in 2000. About 14,212 km2 (4.7%) had been cleared by 2010. Forests in oil palm concessions had been reduced by 5,600 km2 (14.1%), while the figures for timber concessions are 1,336 km2 (1.5%), and for protected forests are 1,122 km2 (1.2%). These deforestation rates explain little about the relative performance of the different land use categories under equivalent conversion risks due to the confounding effects of location. An estimated 25% of lands allocated for timber harvesting in 2000 had their status changed to industrial plantation concessions in 2010. Based on a sample of 3,391 forest plots (1×1 km; 100 ha), and matching statistical analyses, 2000–2010 deforestation was on average 17.6 ha lower (95% C.I.: −22.3 ha–−12.9 ha) in timber concession plots than in oil palm concession plots. When location effects were accounted for, deforestation rates in timber concessions and protected areas were not significantly different (Mean difference: 0.35 ha; 95% C.I.: −0.002 ha–0.7 ha). Natural forest timber concessions in Kalimantan had similar ability as protected areas to maintain forest cover during 2000–2010, provided the former were not reclassified to industrial plantation concessions. Our study indicates the desirability of the Government of Indonesia designating its natural forest timber concessions as protected areas under the IUCN Protected Area Category VI to protect them from reclassification.

The geographic distribution of Bornean orang-utans and its overlap with existing land-use categories (protected areas, logging and plantation concessions) is a necessary foundation to prioritize conservation planning. Based on an extensive orang-utan survey dataset and a number of environmental variables, we modelled an orang-utan distribution map. The modelled orang-utan distribution map covers 155,106 km(2) (21% of Borneo's landmass) and reveals four distinct distribution areas. The most important environmental predictors are annual rainfall and land cover. The overlap of the orang-utan distribution with land-use categories reveals that only 22% of the distribution lies in protected areas, but that 29% lies in natural forest concessions. A further 19% and 6% occurs in largely undeveloped oil palm and tree plantation concessions, respectively. The remaining 24% of the orang-utan distribution range occurs outside of protected areas and outside of concessions. An estimated 49% of the orang-utan distribution will be lost if all forest outside of protected areas and logging concessions is lost. To avoid this potential decline plantation development in orang-utan habitats must be halted because it infringes on national laws of species protection. Further growth of the plantation sector should be achieved through increasing yields in existing plantations and expansion of new plantations into areas that have already been deforested. To reach this goal a large scale island-wide land-use masterplan is needed that clarifies which possible land uses and managements are allowed in the landscape and provides new standardized strategic conservation policies. Such a process should make much better use of non-market values of ecosystem services of forests such as water provision, flood control, carbon sequestration, and sources of livelihood for rural communities. Presently land use planning is more driven by vested interests and direct and immediate economic gains, rather than by approaches that take into consideration social equity and environmental sustainability.

Habitat destruction and overhunting are two major drivers of mammal population declines and extinctions in tropical forests. The construction of roads can be a catalyst for these two threats. In Southeast Asia, the impacts of roads on mammals have not been well-documented at a regional scale. Before evidence-based conservation strategies can be developed to minimize the threat of roads to endangered mammals within this region, we first need to locate where and how roads are contributing to the conversion of their habitats and illegal hunting in each country. We interviewed 36 experts involved in mammal research from seven Southeast Asian countries to identify roads that are contributing the most, in their opinion, to habitat conversion and illegal hunting. Our experts highlighted 16 existing and eight planned roads - these potentially threaten 21% of the 117 endangered terrestrial mammals in those countries. Apart from gathering qualitative evidence from the literature to assess their claims, we demonstrate how species-distribution models, satellite imagery and animal-sign surveys can be used to provide quantitative evidence of roads causing impacts by (1) cutting through habitats where endangered mammals are likely to occur, (2) intensifying forest conversion, and (3) contributing to illegal hunting and wildlife trade. To our knowledge, ours is the first study to identify specific roads threatening endangered mammals in Southeast Asia. Further through highlighting the impacts of roads, we propose 10 measures to limit road impacts in the region.