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Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.

Recreational fisheries contribute substantially to the sociocultural and economic well-being of coastal and riparian regions worldwide, but climate change threatens their sustainability. Fishery managers require information on how climate change will impact key recreational species; however, the absence of a global assessment hinders both directed and widespread conservation efforts. In this study, we present the first global climate change vulnerability assessment of recreationally targeted fish species from marine and freshwater environments (including diadromous fishes). We use climate change projections and data on species' physiological and ecological traits to quantify and map global climate vulnerability and analyze these patterns alongside the indices of socioeconomic value and conservation effort to determine where efforts are sufficient and where they might fall short. We found that over 20% of recreationally targeted fishes are vulnerable to climate change under a high emission scenario. Overall, marine fishes had the highest number of vulnerable species, concentrated in regions with sensitive habitat types (e.g., coral reefs). However, freshwater fishes had higher proportions of species at risk from climate change, with concentrations in northern Europe, Australia, and southern Africa. Mismatches in conservation effort and vulnerability were found within all regions and life-history groups. A key pattern was that current conservation effort focused primarily on marine fishes of high socioeconomic value rather than on the freshwater and diadromous fishes that were predicted to be proportionately more vulnerable. While several marine regions were notably lacking in protection (e.g., Caribbean Sea, Banda Sea), only 19% of vulnerable marine species were without conservation effort. By contrast, 72% of freshwater fishes and 33% of diadromous fishes had no measures in place, despite their high vulnerability and cultural value. The spatial and taxonomic analyses presented here provide guidance for the future conservation and management of recreational fisheries as climate change progresses.

Several Arctic marine mammal species are predicted to be negatively impacted by rapid sea ice loss associated with ongoing ocean warming. However, consequences for Arctic whales remain uncertain. To investigate how Arctic whales responded to past climatic fluctuations, we analysed 206 mitochondrial genomes from beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) sampled across their circumpolar range, and four nuclear genomes, covering both the Atlantic and the Pacific Arctic region. We found four well-differentiated mitochondrial lineages, which were established before the onset of the last glacial expansion ~110 thousand years ago. Our findings suggested these lineages diverged in allopatry, reflecting isolation of populations during glacial periods when the Arctic sea-shelf was covered by multiyear sea ice. Subsequent population expansion and secondary contact between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans shaped the current geographic distribution of lineages, and may have facilitated mitochondrial introgression. Our demographic reconstructions based on both mitochondrial and nuclear genomes showed markedly lower population sizes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the preceding Eemian and current Holocene interglacial periods. Habitat modelling similarly revealed less suitable habitat during the LGM (glacial) than at present (interglacial). Together, our findings suggested the association between climate, population size, and available habitat in belugas. Forecasts for year 2100 showed that beluga habitat will decrease and shift northwards as oceans continue to warm, putatively leading to population declines in some beluga populations. Finally, we identified vulnerable populations which, if extirpated as a consequence of ocean warming, will lead to a substantial decline of species-wide haplotype diversity.

Understanding a species response to past environmental changes can help forecast how they will cope with ongoing climate changes. Harbor porpoises are widely distributed in the North Atlantic and were deeply impacted by the Pleistocene changes with the split of three sub-species. Despite major impacts of fisheries on natural populations, little is known about population connectivity and dispersal, how they reacted to the Pleistocene changes and how they will evolve in the future. Here, we used phylogenetics, population genetics, and predictive habitat modelling to investigate population structure and phylogeographic history of the North Atlantic porpoises. A total of 925 porpoises were characterized at 10 microsatellite loci and one-quarter of the mitogenome (mtDNA). A highly divergent mtDNA lineage was uncovered in one porpoise off Western Greenland, suggesting that a cryptic group may occur and could belong to a recently discovered mesopelagic ecotype off Greenland. Aside from it and the southern sub-species, spatial genetic variation showed that porpoises from both sides of the North Atlantic form a continuous system belonging to the same subspecies (Phocoena phocoena phoceona). Yet, we identified important departures from random mating and restricted intergenerational dispersal forming a highly significant isolation-by-distance (IBD) at both mtDNA and nuclear markers. A ten times stronger IBD at mtDNA compared to nuclear loci supported previous evidence of female philopatry. Together with the lack of spatial trends in genetic diversity, this IBD suggests that migration-drift equilibrium has been reached, erasing any genetic signal of a leading-edge effect that accompanied the predicted recolonization of the northern habitats freed from Pleistocene ice. These results illuminate the processes shaping porpoise population structure and provide a framework for designing conservation strategies and forecasting future population evolution.

In fisheries, vulnerability assessments - also commonly known as ecological risk assessments (ERAs) -have been an increasingly popular alternative to stock assessments to evaluate the vulnerability of non-target species in resource- and data-limited settings. The widely-used productivity-susceptibility analysis (PSA) requires detailed species-specific biological information and fishery susceptibility for a large number of parameters to produce a relative vulnerability score. The two major disadvantages of PSA are that each species is assessed against an arbitrary reference point, and PSA cannot quantify cumulative impacts of multiple fisheries. This paper introduces an Ecological Assessment of the Sustainable Impacts of Fisheries (EASI-Fish), a flexible approach that quantifies the cumulative impacts of fisheries on data-limited bycatch species, demonstrated in eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) tuna fisheries. The method first estimates fishing mortality (F) based on the 'volumetric overlap' of each fishery with the distribution of each species. F is then used in length-structured per-recruit models to assess population vulnerability status using conventional biological reference points. Model results were validated by comparison with stock assessments for bigeye and yellowfin tunas in the EPO for 2016. Application of the model to 24 species of epipelagic and mesopelagic teleosts, sharks, rays, sea turtles and cetaceans and identification of the most vulnerable species is demonstrated. With increasing demands on fisheries to demonstrate ecological sustainability, EASI-Fish allows fishery managers to more confidently identify vulnerable species to which resources can be directed to either implement mitigation measures or collect further data for more formal stock assessment.

Rabosky, Daniel L. ... et al.-- 4 pages, 3 figures, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0273-1, Far more species of organisms are found in the tropics than in temperate and polar regions, but the evolutionary and ecological causes of this pattern remain controversial1,2. Tropical marine fish communities are much more diverse than cold-water fish communities found at higher latitudes3,4, and several explanations for this latitudinal diversity gradient propose that warm reef environments serve as evolutionary ‘hotspots’ for species formation5,6,7,8. Here we test the relationship between latitude, species richness and speciation rate across marine fishes. We assembled a time-calibrated phylogeny of all ray-finned fishes (31,526 tips, of which 11,638 had genetic data) and used this framework to describe the spatial dynamics of speciation in the marine realm. We show that the fastest rates of speciation occur in species-poor regions outside the tropics, and that high-latitude fish lineages form new species at much faster rates than their tropical counterparts. High rates of speciation occur in geographical regions that are characterized by low surface temperatures and high endemism. Our results reject a broad class of mechanisms under which the tropics serve as an evolutionary cradle for marine fish diversity and raise new questions about why the coldest oceans on Earth are present-day hotspots of species formation, This work was supported in part by NSF grant DEB-1256330 (D.L.R.), an NSF DDIG grant to J.C. (DEB-1601830), an Encyclopedia of Life Rubenstein Fellowship to J.C. (EOL-33066-13) and by a Fellowship from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation (D.L.R.). P.F.C. was funded by a Gaylord Donnelley Postdoctoral Environment Fellowship (Yale) and through the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies

Oscillations in the Earth’s temperature and the subsequent retreating and advancing of ice-sheets around the polar regions are thought to have played an important role in shaping the distribution and genetic structuring of contemporary high-latitude populations. After the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), retreating of the ice-sheets would have enabled early colonizers to rapidly occupy suitable niches to the exclusion of other conspecifics, thereby reducing genetic diversity at the leading-edge. Bottlenose dolphins (genus Tursiops) form distinct coastal and pelagic ecotypes, with finer-scale genetic structuring observed within each ecotype. We reconstruct the postglacial colonization of the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) by bottlenose dolphins using habitat modeling and phylogenetics. The AquaMaps model hindcasted suitable habitat for the LGM in the Atlantic lower latitude waters and parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The time-calibrated phylogeny, constructed with 86 complete mitochondrial genomes including 30 generated for this study and created using a multispecies coalescent model, suggests that the expansion to the available coastal habitat in the NEA happened via founder events starting ~15 000 years ago (95% highest posterior density interval: 4 900–26 400). The founders of the 2 distinct coastal NEA populations comprised as few as 2 maternal lineages that originated from the pelagic population. The low effective population size and genetic diversity estimated for the shared ancestral coastal population subsequent to divergence from the pelagic source population are consistent with leading-edge expansion. These findings highlight the legacy of the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles on the genetic structuring and diversity of contemporary populations.

Increasing global energy demands have led to the ongoing intensification of hydrocarbon extraction from marine areas. Hydrocarbon extractive activities pose threats to native marine biodiversity, such as noise, light, and chemical pollution, physical changes to the sea floor, invasive species, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we assessed at a global scale the spatial overlap between offshore hydrocarbon activities and marine biodiversity (>25,000 species, nine major ecosystems, and marine protected areas), and quantify the changes over time. We discovered that two-thirds of global offshore hydrocarbon activities occur in areas within the top 10% for species richness, range rarity, and proportional range rarity values globally. Thus, while hydrocarbon activities are undertaken in less than one percent of the ocean's area, they overlap with approximately 85% of all assessed species. Of conservation concern, 4% of species with the largest proportion of their range overlapping hydrocarbon activities are range restricted, potentially increasing their vulnerability to localized threats such as oil spills. While hydrocarbon activities have extended to greater depths since the mid-1990s, we found that the largest overlap is with coastal ecosystems, particularly estuaries, saltmarshes and mangroves. Furthermore, in most countries where offshore hydrocarbon exploration licensing blocks have been delineated, they do not overlap with marine protected areas (MPAs). Although this is positive in principle, many countries have far more licensing block areas than protected areas, and in some instances, MPA coverage is minimal. These findings suggest the need for marine spatial prioritization to help limit future spatial overlap between marine conservation priorities and hydrocarbon activities. Such prioritization can be informed by the spatial and quantitative baseline information provided here. In increasingly shared seascapes, prioritizing management actions that set both conservation and development targets could help minimize further declines of biodiversity and environmental changes at a global scale.

Here we demonstrate how to globally detect regions of high plankton diversity (the lower levels of the trophic chain) and also higher level consumers' diversity using satellite information of 'fluid dynamical niches' characterized by spatially and temporally different dominant plankton communities. The higher the spectral variability, the higher is the species community diversity, occupying different niches, regardless of the taxonomic group under consideration. Spectral heterogeneity is expected to be related to environmental heterogeneity and therefore is used as a powerful proxy of biodiversity. We calculate a diversity proxy using the PHYSAT algorithm on ocean color data as the heterogeneity of the water masses that it detects already integrate, in an explicit or implicit manner, the main information about the pigment, the size and the extruded compounds of the plankton and the biological meaningful physic-chemical characteristics of the water masses where the community develops. This study overcomes the classic problems of fragmented and heterogeneous information, combining biological and environmental context at different scales and making use of large-scale biodiversity databases combined with niche/trophic models and species distribution models (i.e. AQUAMAPS, ECCO2-Darwin, Seapodym). Biodiversity hotspots of consumers result significantly positively related with the remote sensed diversity of primary producers, top predators included.

Global climate change during the Late Pleistocene periodically encroached and then released habitat during the glacial cycles, causing range expansions and contractions in some species. These dynamics have played a major role in geographic radiations, diversification and speciation. We investigate these dynamics in the most widely distributed of marine mammals, the killer whale (Orcinus orca), using a global data set of over 450 samples. This marine top predator inhabits coastal and pelagic ecosystems ranging from the ice edge to the tropics, often exhibiting ecological, behavioural and morphological variation suggestive of local adaptation accompanied by reproductive isolation. Results suggest a rapid global radiation occurred over the last 350 000 years. Based on habitat models, we estimated there was only a 15% global contraction of core suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum, and the resources appeared to sustain a constant global effective female population size throughout the Late Pleistocene. Reconstruction of the ancestral phylogeography highlighted the high mobility of this species, identifying 22 strongly supported long-range dispersal events including interoceanic and interhemispheric movement. Despite this propensity for geographic dispersal, the increased sampling of this study uncovered very few potential examples of ancestral dispersal among ecotypes. Concordance of nuclear and mitochondrial data further confirms genetic cohesiveness, with little or no current gene flow among sympatric ecotypes. Taken as a whole, our data suggest that the glacial cycles influenced local populations in different ways, with no clear global pattern, but with secondary contact among lineages following long-range dispersal as a potential mechanism driving ecological diversification.

The climatic changes of the glacial cycles are thought to have been a major driver of population declines and species extinctions. However, studies to date have focused on terrestrial fauna and there is little understanding of how marine species responded to past climate change. Here we show that a true Arctic species, the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus), shifted its range and tracked its core suitable habitat northwards during the rapid climate change of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Late Pleistocene lineages survived into the Holocene and effective female population size increased rapidly, concurrent with a threefold increase in core suitable habitat. This study highlights that responses to climate change are likely to be species specific and difficult to predict. We estimate that the core suitable habitat of bowhead whales will be almost halved by the end of this century, potentially influencing future population dynamics.

Given the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, the need to prioritize marine areas for protection represents a major conservation challenge. The three-dimensionality of marine life and ecosystems is an inherent element of complexity for setting spatial conservation plans. Yet, the confidence of any recommendation largely depends on shifting climate, which triggers a global redistribution of biodiversity, suggesting the inclusion of time as a fourth dimension. Here, we developed a depth-specific prioritization analysis to inform the design of protected areas, further including metrics of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Climate change was captured in this analysis by considering the projected future distribution of >2000 benthic and pelagic species inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea, combined with climatic stability and heterogeneity metrics of the seascape. We identified important areas based on both biological and climatic criteria, where conservation focus should be given in priority when designing a three-dimensional, climate-smart protected area network. We detected spatially concise, conservation priority areas, distributed around the basin, that protected marine areas almost equally across all depth zones. Our approach highlights the importance of deep sea zones as priority areas to meet conservation targets for future marine biodiversity, while suggesting that spatial prioritization schemes, that focus on a static two-dimensional distribution of biodiversity data, might fail to englobe both the vertical properties of species distributions and the fine and larger-scale impacts associated with climate change.