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Livestock grazing occurs worldwide, spanning over 25% of land globally, and effective conservation of biodiversity relies upon understanding the interactions of agricultural management practices and increasingly variable weather associated with climate change. We evaluated precipitation and temperature and the daily nest survival rates of two species of sagebrush-obligate songbirds, Brewer’s sparrow (Spizella breweri) and sagebrush sparrow (Artemisiospiza nevadensis) under dormant season grazing, rotational grazing and a non-grazed control. Precipitation and temperature were quantified as daily time-varying and averages across the breeding season. Both sparrow species in our study were influenced by within-year weather variation, and experienced declines in daily nest survival beyond precipitation thresholds. For sagebrush sparrows, an interaction of precipitation and temperature indicated nest survival was lowest during 5-day time frames with minimal precipitation and high temperatures. While we found moderate grazing lowered perennial grass cover, there was no support for vegetation differences associated with moderate grazing explaining daily nest survival. Our results indicate that variable weather presented a much greater threat to these birds than reductions in herbaceous cover caused by moderate grazing under the studied conditions. Management should focus on conserving extensive tracts of suitable habitat to increase songbird populations and resiliency to increasingly variable and extreme weather conditions.

Connecting seasonal ranges of migratory birds is important for understanding the annual template of stressors that influence their populations. Brewer’s sparrows (Spizella breweri) and sagebrush sparrows (Artemisiospiza nevadensis) share similar sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats for breeding but have different population trends that might be related to winter location. To link breeding and winter ranges, we created isoscapes of deuterium [stable isotope ratio (δ) of deuterium; δ2H] and nitrogen (δ15N) for each species modeled from isotope ratios measured in feathers of 264 Brewer’s and 82 sagebrush sparrows and environmental characteristics at capture locations across their breeding range. We then used feather 2Hf and 15Nf measured in 1,029 Brewer’s and 527 sagebrush sparrows captured on winter locations in southwestern United States to assign probable breeding ranges. Intraspecies population mixing from across the breeding range was strong for both Brewer’s and sagebrush sparrows on winter ranges. Brewer’s sparrows but not sagebrush sparrows were linked to more northerly breeding locations in the eastern part of their winter range. Winter location was not related to breeding population trends estimated from US Geological Survey Breeding Bird Survey routes for either Brewer’s or sagebrush sparrows. Primary drivers of population dynamics are likely independent for each species; Brewer’s and sagebrush sparrows captured at the same winter location did not share predicted breeding locations or population trends. The diffuse migratory connectivity displayed by Brewer’s and sagebrush sparrows measured at the coarse spatial resolution in our analysis also suggests that local environments rather than broad regional characteristics are primary drivers of annual population trends.