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As ambitious new targets to increase area-based conservation are discussed, there is a growing concern that such an expansion might ignore or marginalize local people. How to set top-down priorities to implement new protected areas that reconcile local peoples' interaction with and dependence on biodiversity remains a challenge. The Gran Chaco, a global hotspot of deforestation and biodiversity loss, faces the dual challenge of expanding area-based conservation while helping to transition to more sustainable natural resource use in order to maintain traditional livelihoods. We used a literature review to identify species that are important for local communities' livelihoods and then we compared conservation prioritization schemes that sought to identify priority areas for threatened species, versus priority areas for the same species plus species that underpin local livelihoods. We found that current protected areas insufficiently protect threatened species, but that a modest expansion would boost the representativeness of conservation-relevant species almost threefold. Importantly, we found a considerable overlap between priority areas for species of conservation concern and those important for people. This suggests major potential for area-based conservation to leverage co-benefits between conservation and livelihood goals, provided that new conservation initiatives are inclusive and consider the needs and customary rights of local communities. Protected areas that emphasize multiple uses and community-based management appear particularly promising to deliver co-benefits for conservation and development in the Chaco; however, those areas remain scarce. Our approach enables the consideration and empowerment of local people as key actors in conservation planning.

While forest productivity and biodiversity are expected to be correlated, prioritizing either forest productivity or biodiversity can result in different management. Spatial quantification of the congruence between areas suitable for either one can inform planning. Here we quantify the relationship between net primary productivity of European forests and biodiversity of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and butterflies both separately and in combination, and map their spatial congruence. We used richness maps obtained by stacking species distribution models for these animal species, and average net primary production from 2000 to 2012 using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. We tested how biodiversity and primary productivity are correlated and quantified the spatial congruence of these two sources. We show the areas where high or low productivity co-occur with high or low biodiversity using a quantile-based overlay analysis. Productivity was positively correlated to overall biodiversity and mammal, herptile and butterfly biodiversity, but biodiversity of birds showed a weak negative correlation. There were no significant differences in the strength of relationship across species groups, while herptiles had stronger relationships with productivity compared to other groups. Overlap analysis revealed significant spatial overlap between productivity and biodiversity in all species groups, except for birds. High value areas for both productivity and biodiversity in all species groups, except birds, co-occurred in the Mediterranean and temperate regions. The areas with high biodiversity of birds are mainly found in the boreal areas of Europe, while for all other species groups these areas are mostly located on the Iberian Peninsula and the Balkan ranges. Based on the presented maps, areas where regulating wood production activities to conserve species can be identified. But the maps also help to identify areas where either biodiversity or productivity is high and focusing on just one aspect is more straightforward.

Made available in DSpace on 2022-05-01T09:31:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2022-01-01 The Atlantic Forest, a hotspot for biodiversity conservation, harbours five forest deer species (Mazama spp.). Due to their elusiveness, there is a severe scarcity of occurrence data to support ecological studies and conservation planning. Thus, we assembled an occurrence dataset of Atlantic Forest deer with reliable taxonomic information aggregating data from scat and camera traps surveys, and opportunistic data collection over the last 20 years. From 2002 to 2019, we surveyed 77 protected areas using scats detection dogs and genetically identifying the faecal samples. We successfully identified 1,147 out of 1,450 collected samples. From 2000 to 2020, we sampled six protected areas in 92 sampling points with 13,328 camera trap days of sampling effort. In addition, we established an active search for potential contributors within the scientific community and environmental consultants since 2010, offering a taxonomic identification service for camera traps images, and biological field-collected samples. With our efforts, we assembled a dataset with 1,456 records of forest deer occurrence at the Atlantic Forest. Of these records, 494 are from M. americana, 350 from M. bororo, 309 from M. gouazoubira, 268 from M. nana and 35 from M. nemorivaga. The faecal sampling was the most predominant method in these records (n = 1043) followed by photographs from camera traps (n = 388); both methods represent 98.2% of our dataset records. Most of the records (79.5%) in the dataset are inside protected areas (n = 1,130). Our dataset is the most comprehensive source of information on Neotropical forest deer occurrence to date. Deer Research and Conservation Center São Paulo State University, SP Federal University of Latin American Integration, PR Neotropical Institute: Research and Conservation, PR Programa de Pós-Graduação Em Biodiversidade Universidade Federal Do Oeste Do Pará Santarém, PA Caipora Cooperativa, SC Wildlife Ecology Management and Conservation Lab (LEMaC) Forest Science Department “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture University of São Paulo, SP Manacá Institute, SP Programa de Pós-Graduação Em Ecologia E Conservação Universidade Federal Do Paraná Instituto de Pesquisas Cananéia, SP Pró-Tapir Institute for Biodiversity, ES Instituto Nacional da Mata Atlântica, ES Federal University of Espírito Santo, ES Federal University of Maranhão, MA Laboratório de Biodiversidade Conservação e Ecologia de Animais Silvestres (LABCEAS) Programa de Pós-Graduação E Ecologia E Conservação Departamento de Zoologia Universidade Federal Do Paraná (UFPR), SP Deer Research and Conservation Center São Paulo State University, SP

The koala, Phascolarctos cinereus, is an iconic Australian wildlife species facing a rapid decline in South‐East Queensland (SEQLD). For conservation planning, the ability to estimate the size of koala populations is crucial. Systematic surveys are the most common approach to estimate koala populations but because of their cost they are often restricted to small geographic areas and are conducted infrequently. Public interest and participation in the collection of koala sighting data is increasing in popularity, but such data are generally not used for population estimation. We modeled monthly sightings of koalas reported by members of the public from 1997 to 2013 in SEQLD by developing a self‐exciting spatio‐temporal point process model. This allowed us to account for characteristics that are associated with koala presence (which vary over both space and time) while accounting for detection bias in the koala sighting process and addressing spatial clustering of observations. The density of koalas varied spatially due to the heterogeneous nature of koala habitat in SEQLD, with a mean density of 0.0019 koalas per km2 over the study period. The percentage of land areas with very low densities (0–0.0005 koalas per km2) remained similar throughout the study period representing, on average, 66% of the total study area. The approach described in this paper provides a useful starting point to allow greater use to be made of incidental koala sighting data. We propose that the model presented here could be used to combine systematic koala survey data (which is spatially restricted, but more precise) with koala sighting data (which is incidental and often biased by nature, but often collected over large geographical areas). Our approach could also be adopted for modeling the density of other wildlife species where data is collected in the same manner., A self‐exciting spatio‐temporal point process model was developed to estimate koala density from observed koala sightings data while accounting for spatio‐temporal detection bias and clustering of observations. An example of koala densities between 1997 and 2006, estimated from koala sightings data is shown below.

Soil loss assessment in watersheds is useful in developing plans for the protection and conservation of soil and water in a sustainable manner. This study aimed to determine erosion hazard classification and erosion hazard map using RUSLE as the basis of a soil and water conservation planning program. The RUSLE model was used to assess soil loss and guide soil conservation efforts. Annual rainfall data, digital elevation model (DEM), land use map were used to generate RUSLE parameters namely rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), cover-management factor (C), and support practices factor (P). Erosion hazard is classified into five classes namely very low, low, medium, high, and very high. Based on the results, at the Dolago watershed, very high erosion hazard was found in dryland of 577.95 t/ha/yr. Meanwhile, very low erosion hazard was found in the rice field of 2.22 t/ha/yr. The results help in planning and implementing soil and water conservation both vegetatively and mechanically to minimize damage to watershed ecosystems. Validation and testing of the RUSLE model should be carried out in future studies because this is a strategic step to develop modeling of sediment yields effectively in an effort to mitigate major land damage in watersheds.

Peer reviewed: True, Acknowledgements: We would like to acknowledge Oscar Venter, Hugh Possingham, and Moreno Di Marco for discussions on this topic., Raptors are emblematic of the global biodiversity crisis because one out of five species are threatened with extinction and over half have declining populations due to human threats. Yet our understanding of where these “threats” impact raptor species is limited across terrestrial Earth. This is concerning because raptors, as apex predators, are critically positioned in ecological food webs, and their declining populations can undermine important ecosystem services ranging from pest control to disease regulation. Here, we map the distribution of 15 threats within the known ranges of 172 threatened and near threatened raptor species globally as declared by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. We analyze the proportion of each raptor range that is exposed to threats, identify global hotspots of impacted raptor richness, and investigate how human impacts on raptors vary based on several intrinsic (species traits) and extrinsic factors. We find that humans are potentially negatively affecting at least one threatened raptor species across three quarters of Earth’s terrestrial area (78%; 113 million km2). Our results also show that raptors have 66% of their range potentially impacted by threats on average (range 2.7–100%). Alarmingly, critically endangered species have 90% of their range impacted by threats on average. We also highlight 57 species (33%) of particular concern that have > 90% of their ranges potentially impacted. Without immediate conservation intervention, these 57 species, including the most heavily impacted Forest Owlet (Athene blewitti), the Madagascar Serpent-eagle (Eutriorchis astur), and the Rufous Fishing-owl (Scotopelia ussheri), will likely face extinction in the near future. Global “hotspots” of impacted raptor richness are ubiquitous, with core areas of threat in parts of the Sahel and East Africa where 92% of the assessed raptors are potentially impacted per grid cell (10 species on average), and in Northern India where nearly 100% of raptors are potentially impacted per grid cell (11 species). Additionally, “coolspots” of unimpacted richness that represent refuges from threats occur in Greenland and Canada, where 98 and 58% of raptors are potentially unimpacted per grid cell, respectively (nearly one species on average), Saharan Africa, where 21% of raptors are potentially unimpacted per grid cell (one species on average), and parts of the Amazon, where 12% of raptors are potentially unimpacted per grid cell (0.6 species on average). The results provide essential information to guide conservation planning and action for the world’s imperiled raptors.

International audience; Conservation efforts in global biodiversity hotspots often face a common predicament: an urgent need for conservation action hampered by a significant lack of knowledge about that biodiversity. In recent decades, the computerisation of primary biodiversity data worldwide has provided the scientific community with raw material to increase our understanding of the shared natural heritage. These datasets, however, suffer from a lot of geographical and taxonomic inaccuracies. Automated tools developed to enhance their reliability have shown that detailed expert examination remains the best way to achieve robust and exhaustive datasets. In New Caledonia, one of the most important biodiversity hotspots worldwide, the plant diversity inventory is still underway, and most taxa awaiting formal description are narrow endemics, hence by definition hard to discern in the datasets. In the meantime, anthropogenic pressures, such as nickel-ore mining, are threatening the unique ultramafic ecosystems at an increasing rate. The conservation challenge is therefore a race against time, as the rarest species must be identified and protected before they vanish. In this study, based on all available datasets and resources, we applied a workflow capable of highlighting the lesser known taxa. The main challenges addressed were to aggregate all data available worldwide, and tackle the geographical and taxonomic biases, avoiding the data loss resulting from automated filtering. Every doubtful specimen went through a careful taxonomic analysis by a local and international taxonomist panel. Geolocation of the whole dataset was achieved through dataset cross-checking, local botanists’ field knowledge, and historical material examination. Field studies were also conducted to clarify the most unresolved taxa. With the help of this method and by analysing over 85,000 data, we were able to double the number of known narrow endemic taxa, elucidate 68 putative new species, and update our knowledge of the rarest species’ distributions so as to promote conservation measures.

Mountain regions are centers of biodiversity endemism at a global scale but the role of arid‐zone mountain ranges in shaping biodiversity patterns is poorly understood. Focusing on three guilds of taxa from a desert upland refugium in Australia, we sought to determine: (a) the relative extent to which climate, terrain or geological substrate predict endemism, and (b) whether patterns of endemism are complimentary across broad taxonomic guilds. We mapped regional endemism for plants, land snails, and vertebrates using combined Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for all endemic taxa (n = 82). We then modelled predictors of endemism using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) and geology, terrain, and climate variables. We tested for the presence of inter‐ and intraguild hotspots of endemism. Many individual plant and land snail taxa were tightly linked with geology, corresponding to small distributions. Conversely, most vertebrate taxa were not constrained to specific geological substrates and occurred over larger areas. However, across all three guilds climate was the strongest predictor of regional endemism, particularly for plants wherein discrete hotspots of endemism were buffered from extreme summer temperatures. Land snail and vertebrate endemism peaked in areas with highest precipitation in the driest times of the year. Hotspots of endemism within each guild poorly predicted endemism in other guilds. We found an overarching signal that climatic gradients play a dominant role in the persistence of endemic taxa in an arid‐zone mountain range system. An association with higher rainfall and cooler temperatures indicates that continuing trends toward hotter and drier climates may lead to range contractions in this, and potentially other, arid‐zone mountain biotas. Contrasting patterns of endemism across guilds highlight the need to couple comprehensive regional planning for the protection of climate refugia, with targeted management of more localized and habitat specialist taxa., We found an overarching signal that, even in a low elevation and relatively low rainfall arid zone refugia, climatic gradients still play a dominant role in the persistence of endemic taxa. Nonetheless individual taxa also show contrasting patterns at local scales, highlighting the need for both conservation strategies targeting at‐risk taxa and comprehensive regional planning for the protection of critical climate refugia.

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social-ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.La incorporación de las tierras privadas a la planeación de la conservación regional y nacional ha sido un reto a pesar de su importancia como hábitat para especies en peligro y como componentes nucleares de las redes funcionales de áreas protegidas. La identificación de las localidades en donde sea probable que los propietarios privados participen en las iniciativas de conservación puede ayudar a evitar conflictos costosos y a aclarar las compensaciones entre los beneficios ecológicos y los costos sociopolíticos. La evaluación empírica y espacialmente explícita de los factores asociados con la conservación en tierras privadas es una herramienta emergente usada para la identificación de oportunidades de conservación en el futuro. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los datos sobre la conservación en tierras privadas es reportada voluntariamente y está incompleta, lo cual complica realizar estas evaluaciones. Usamos una aplicación novedosa de los modelos de ocupación para analizar la presencia de la mitigación por conservación en tierras privadas. Comparamos diferentes formulaciones de los modelos de ocupación con un modelo de regresión logística para predecir las localidades de la mitigación por conservación con base en un marco de trabajo de un sistema socioecológico espacialmente explícito. Combinamos un experimento de simulación con un estudio de caso sobre datos de mitigación en Idaho y Montana (Estados Unidos) para ilustrar la utilidad del marco de trabajo de ocupación para el modelado de la conservación en tierras privadas. Los modelos de ocupación que consideraron explícitamente la variación en los reportes produjeron estimados de los predictores que estuvieron sustancialmente menos sesgados que los estimados producidos por la regresión logística bajo todas las condiciones simuladas. Los modelos de ocupación produjeron estimaciones para seis predictores que evaluamos en nuestro estudio de caso, los cuales fueron mayores en magnitud pero menos certeros que aquellos producidos por la regresión logística. Estos resultados sugieren que los modelos de ocupación tienen como resultado inferencias cualitativamente diferentes a la regresión logística con respecto a los efectos de los predictores sobre la presencia de mitigación por conservación y resaltan la importancia de la integración de los reportes variables e incompletos sobre la participación dentro del análisis empírico de las iniciativas de conservación. Si se falla en lo anterior se puede terminar enfatizando el factor social, institucional y ambiental equivocado que permite la conservación, además de subestimar las oportunidades de conservación en paisajes en donde las normas sociales o las restricciones institucionales inhiben el reporte de datos.

Resource selection is a dynamic process driven by habitat valuation and risk avoidance in heterogeneous landscapes. Resource selection and movement decisions of individuals may be sensitive to intrinsic factors, such as body condition, and variation in these choices may have consequences on subsequent survival. We evaluated northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) brood resource selection patterns to quantify utility of different cover types during the development period using integrated step-selection analysis in a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework with three brood stages: flightless broods ≤ 14 days old, dependent broods 15–35 days old, and independent broods over 35 days old. Broods showed strongest selection for native grasslands that were burned and grazed at least once in the previous two years, and agricultural fields. Brood mobility improved with age; broods > 35 days old travelled farther on average and took daily steps > 200 m more frequently than younger broods. Young broods ≤ 14 days old did not select for idle native grasslands, while broods > 35 days old did select for that cover type. Young broods also selected areas farther from trees compared to older broods. We evaluated the survival consequences of resource selection by comparing patterns in choices of broods that succeeded to choices of broods that failed to survive to 35 days. Successful broods chose habitats with more shrub cover and areas farther from trees compared to failed broods. Our results suggest that conservation planning should consider age-specific patterns in habitat use and demographic consequences of habitat choice for greatest effectiveness.

Effects of climate change are particularly important in the Mediterranean Biodiversity hotspot where rising temperatures and drought are negatively affecting several plant taxa, including endemic species. Assisted colonisation (AC) represents a useful tool for reducing the effect of climate change on endemic plant species threatened by climate change. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) for 188 taxa endemic to Italy with the IUCN red listing range loss threshold under criterion A (30%) to define: (a) the number of AC (measured as 2×2km grid cells that should be occupied by new populations, i.e. grid cells=new populations) required to fully compensate for predicted range loss and to halt the decline below the 30% of range loss; (b) The number of cells necessary to compensate for range loss was calculated as the number of currently occupied cells lost under future climate due to unsuitable conditions. We used two representative concentration pathways, +2.6 and +8.5W/m2, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. Availability of suitable areas for AC was also assessed within the current species distribution and within protected areas. Under the optimistic scenario, no taxa would lose more than 30% of their range and AC would not be required. Under the pessimistic scenario, roughly the 90% of taxa showed a cell loss higher than 30%. Eight taxa were predicted to lose >95% of their range. For these species, AC was required from 13 to 16 new populations (=13–16 grid cells) per taxon to cap the range loss at 30%. For currently VU or EN species, an average number of 32–35 AC attempts would be necessary to fully compensate their range loss under a pessimistic scenario. Suitable recipient sites within protected areas falling in their projected range were identified, allowing for short-distance AC. Synthesis. Combining species distribution models and red listing thresholds under Criterion A has enabled the strategic planning of multiple species assisted colonisation minimising the effort in terms of new populations to be created and maximising the conservation benefit in terms of range loss compensation.

In 2010, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) outlined an international strategic plan, which included the twenty Aichi Biodiversity Targets to be met by 2020. Target 12 refers to preventing extinctions and halting species declines. Despite some local conservation successes, this target is not on track to be met at the global level. We aimed to understand what is needed to achieve this target according to two invested but contrasting groups: species conservation experts and global conservation policy makers. We surveyed a diversity of species conservation experts and contrasted their views with those of policy makers engaged with CBD. Species experts considered that the greatest need was for increased political will, while policy makers most frequently cited the need for increased knowledge of species conservation status. Both groups did, however, emphasise that achieving species conservation targets requires greater progress to be made towards many of the other Aichi Targets. We suggest that improved communication, collaboration and data sharing among institutions should be a priority to help overcome the perceived knowledge-gap. Doing so could help to align the views of practitioners and policy makers, and develop a shared understanding of the key actions needed to accelerate progress towards global biodiversity targets.

Neither time nor resources exist to design conservation plans for every species, particularly for little-studied, noncharismatic, but ecologically important taxa that make up most of biodiversity. To explore the feasibility of basing conservation action on community-level biogeography, we sampled a montane insect community. We addressed three issues: (1) the appropriate scale for sampling insect communities; (2) the association of habitat specialization—perhaps a measure of extinction vulnerability—with other ecological or physical traits; and (3) the correlation of diversity across major insect groups. Using malaise traps in Gunnison County, Colorado, we captured 8847 Diptera (identified to family and morphospecies), 1822 Hymenoptera (identified to morphospecies), and 2107 other insects (identified to order). We sampled in three habitat types—meadow, aspen, and conifer—defined on the basis of the dominant vegetation at the scale of hundreds of meters. Dipteran communities were clearly differentiated by habitat type rather than geographic proximity. This result also holds true for hymenopteran communities. Body size and feeding habits were associated with habitat specialization at the family level. In particular, habitat generalists at the family level—taxa perhaps more likely to survive anthropogenic habitat alteration—tended to be trophic generalists. Dipteran species richness was marginally correlated with hymenopteran species richness and was significantly correlated with the total number of insect orders sampled by site. Because these correlations result from differences in richness among habitat types, insect taxa may be reasonable surrogates for one another when sampling is done across habitat types. In sum, community-wide studies appear to offer a practical way to gather information about the diversity and distribution of little-known taxa. Resumen:No existe ni el tiempo ni los recursos para disenar planes de conservacion para cada especie, particularmente para los taxones poco estudiados, no carismaticas, pero ecologicamente importantes que componen la mayoria de la biodiversidad. Para explorar la factibilidad de basar acciones de conservacion en biogegrafia a nivel comunitario, muestreamos una comunidad de insectos de montana. Evaluamos tres aspectos: (1) la escala adecuada para el muestreo de comunidades de insectos; (2) la asociacion de especializacion de habitat—quiza una medida de vulnerabilidad de extincion—con otras caracteristicas ecologicas o fisicas; y (3) la correlacion de la diversidad a lo largo de los grupos principales de insectos. Mediante el uso de trampas en el condado Gunnison, en Colorado, capturamos 8847 dipteros (identificados a nivel de familia y morfoespecies), 1822 himenopteros (identificadas hasta morfoespecies) y 2107 otros insectos (identificados a nivel de orden). Muestreamos tres tipos de habitats—vega, alamos temblones y coniferas—definidos en base a la vegetacion dominante a escala de cientos de metros. Las comunidades de dipteros estuvieron claramente diferenciadas por tipos de habitat y no por la proximidad geografica. Este resultado tambien se mantiene para las comunidades de himenopteros. El tamano del cuerpo y los habitos alimenticios estuvieron asociados con la especializacion del habitat a nivel de familia. En particular, los generalistas de habitat a nivel de familia—los taxones que posiblemente tengan mayor probabilidad de sobrevivir alteraciones antropogenicas del habitat—tendieron a ser generalistas troficos. La riqueza de las especies de dipteros estuvo marginalmente correlacionada con la riqueza de especies de himenopteros y estuvo significativamente correlacionada con el numero total de ordenes de insectos muestreadas por sitio. Debido a que estas correlaciones resultaron de diferencias en la riqueza de especies entre tipos de habitats, los taxones de insectos podrian ser substitutos mutuos razonables cuando se muestrea entre diferentes tipos de habitats. En resumen, los estudios a lo largo de comunidades parecen ofrecer una forma practica de recolectar informacion sobre la diversidad y distribucion de los taxones poco estudiados.

Over the past decades, global environmental changes have led to unfavorable effects on migratory birds. However, many species that encounter climate change are listed as least concern by International Union for Conservation of Nature. Using species distribution models, we quantified the redistributions of breeding and wintering sites of oriental honey buzzards, OHB (Pernis ptilorhynchus), a long-distance migratory raptor that often preys on the larvae of wasps and bees under changing climate based on shared socio-economic pathways scenarios. We also incorporated climate and land use risks based on climate anomalies and vegetation dynamics to assess future conservation strategies. The results revealed a significant range contraction on the wintering and breeding areas of the OHB species by 2050 and 2100. Our results suggest that the migration distance will likely increase under all scenarios. In addition, we found many high-risk areas across OHB habitats while refugia areas were relatively only covered a small proportion. Habitat restoration and developing new protected areas become a fundamental strategy for OHB conservation. Our approaches have provided comprehensive insights into broad biogeographic dynamics under multifaceted threats and how to tackle global changes through the specific landscape management for long-distance migrants.

Public support is often instrumental for restoring large mammals to landscapes where they have been extirpated. Effective conservation planning likely often hinges on wildlife managers understanding and reflecting the values and beliefs of their constituencies. Yet, comparative views of wildlife managers and the public or key interest groups are largely untested. As a prelude to developing a management plan for reintroduced bison (Bison bison) in Yukon, Canada, we compared views of the public, hunters, and wildlife managers, using a pre-tested questionnaire with most questions based on a 5-point Likert scale. We tested whether managers differed with respect to their values and beliefs pertaining to bison management compared to the public and hunters. Additionally, we used a Potential for Conflict Index2 approach to assess the acceptability of potential management actions by these three groups to hypothetical scenarios. Our main findings were that (i) respondents with higher anthropocentric and ecocentric views of bison were more accepting of population growth; (ii) respondents that believed bison or hunters had created ecological or social impacts were less accepting of an increased bison population; (iii) means differed significantly between groups for most questions, with key differences being a lack of acceptability of “doing nothing” as a management option by the public, and “reducing harvest opportunities” by hunters—however, there were few polarized views on bison management options; and (iv) PCI2 values were often moderate (0.21–0.50) within groups, indicating a lack of consensus on views about the acceptability of management options. A low degree of consensus between or within groups is a hallmark of a potential for conflict, and revealing low levels of consensus between and within groups can facilitate understanding where increased communication between managers and their constituencies is needed. Our research provides a case study of wildlife managers in the Yukon and demonstrates that they reflect reasonably well the public and hunters regarding bison management. This is likely because Yukon bison managers are an inclusive group that is largely community based. That said, there were often significant differences in the degree to which all three groups agreed on bison management options. Within the context of species conservation planning, similar research can provide an important test on congruence between views of wildlife managers and their constituencies. We recommend similar assessments when key decisions need to be made by wildlife managers, particularly on potentially volatile issues that may not be broadly supported.

Aim: Traditional approaches for including species' distributions in conservation planning have presented them as long-term averages of variation. Like these approaches, the main waterfowl conservation targeting tool in the United States Prairie Pothole Region (US PPR) is based primarily on long-term averaged distributions of breeding pairs. While this tool has supported valuable conservation, it does not explicitly consider spatiotemporal changes in spring wetland availability and does not assess wetland availability during the brood rearing period. We sought to develop a modelling approach and targeting tool that incorporated these types of dynamics for breeding waterfowl pairs and broods. This goal also presented an opportunity for us to compare predictions from a traditional targeting tool based on long-term averages to predictions from spatiotemporal models. Such a comparison facilitated tests of the underlying assumption that this traditional targeting tool could provide an effective surrogate measure for conservation objectives such as brood abundance and climate refugia. Location: US PPR. Methods: We developed spatiotemporal models of waterfowl pair and brood abundance within the US PPR. We compared the distributions predicted by these models and assessed similarity with the averaged pair data that is used to develop the current waterfowl targeting tool. Results: Results demonstrated low similarity and correlation between the averaged pair data and spatiotemporal brood and pair models. The spatiotemporal pair model distributions did not serve as better surrogates for brood abundance than the averaged pair data. Main conclusions: Our study underscored the contributions that the current targeting tool has made to waterfowl conservation but also suggested that conservation plans in the region would benefit from the consideration of inter- and intra-annual dynamics. We suggested that using only the averaged pair data and derived products might result in the omission of 58% - 88% of important pair and brood habitat from conservation plans. [Correction added on 5 February 2021, after first online publication: 'Results' text has been modified and the 'Main conclusions' omission percentages have been corrected.].

Conservation actors face the challenge of allocating limited resources despite uncertainty about future climate conditions. In many cases, the potential value and feasibility of proposed projects vary across climate scenarios. A key goal is to identify areas where conservation outcomes can balance both environmental and human needs. We developed a conservation prioritization framework that jointly considers the value and feasibility of candidate projects across future climate scenarios. We then applied this framework to the challenge of meeting environmental flow targets across the Red River basin of the south‐central United States. To estimate the conservation feasibility of meeting environmental flow goals in a river reach in each climate scenario, we used a basin‐wide hydrologic planning tool to quantify the reduction in societal water usage needed to meet environmental flow targets. To estimate the biodiversity value of each river reach in each climate scenario, we used climate‐driven species distribution models and species’ conservation status. We found that river reaches in the east‐central portion of the basin may be good candidates for conservation investments, because they had high biodiversity value and high sociopolitical feasibility in all future climate scenarios. In contrast, sites in the arid western reaches of the basin had high biodiversity value, but low feasibility of achieving environmental flow goals. Our framework should have broad applicability given that the value and feasibility of conservation projects vary across climate scenarios in ecosystems around the world. It may serve as a coarse filter to identify sites for more detailed analyses and could be integrated with complementarity‐based approaches to conservation planning to balance species’ representation across projects. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Species’ range maps based on expert opinion are a critical resource for conservation planning. Expert maps are usually accompanied by species descriptions that specify sources of internal range heterogeneity, such as habitat associations, but these are rarely considered when using expert maps for analyses. We developed a quantitative metric (expert score) to evaluate the agreement between an expert map and a habitat probability surface obtained from a species distribution model. This method rewards both the avoidance of unsuitable sites and the inclusion of suitable sites in the expert map. We obtained expert maps of 330 butterfly species from each of 2 widely used North American sources (Glassberg [1999, 2001] and Scott [1986]) and computed species‐wise expert scores for each. Overall, the Glassberg maps secured higher expert scores than Scott (0.61 and 0.41, respectively) due to the specific rules (e.g., Glassberg only included regions where the species was known to reproduce whereas Scott included all areas a species expanded to each year) they used to include or exclude areas from ranges. The predictive performance of expert maps was almost always hampered by the inclusion of unsuitable sites, rather than by exclusion of suitable sites (deviance outside of expert maps was extremely low). Map topology was the primary predictor of expert performance rather than any factor related to species characteristics such as mobility. Given the heterogeneity and discontinuity of suitable landscapes, expert maps drawn with more detail are more likely to agree with species distribution models and thus minimize both commission and omission errors., Article impact statement: Detailed expert maps are more likely to agree with species distribution models and thus minimize commission and omission errors.

Aim: Distribution modelling is a useful approach to obtain knowledge about the spatial distribution of biodiversity, required for, for example, red-list assessments. While distribution modelling methods have been applied mostly to single species, modelling of communities and ecosystems (EDM; ecosystem-level distribution modelling) produces results that are more directly relevant for management and decision-making. Although the choice of predictors is a pivotal part of the modelling process, few studies have compared the suitability of different sets of predictors for EDM. In this study, we compare the performance of 50 single environmental variables with that of 11 composite landscape gradients (CLGs) for prediction of ecosystem types. The CLGs represent gradients in landscape element composition derived from multivariate analyses, for example “inner-outer coast” and “land use intensity.” Location: Norway. Methods: We used data from field-based ecosystem-type mapping of nine ecosystem types, and environmental variables with a resolution of 100 × 100 m. We built nine models for each ecosystem type with variables from different predictor sets. Logistic regression with forward selection of variables was used for EDM. Models were evaluated with independently collected data. Results: Most ecosystem types could be predicted reliably, although model performance differed among ecosystem types. We identified significant differences in predictive power and model parsimony across models built from different predictor sets. Climatic variables alone performed poorly, indicating that the current climate alone is not sufficient to predict the current distribution of ecosystems. Used alone, the CLGs resulted in parsimonious models with relatively high predictive power. Used together with other variables, they consistently improved the models. Main conclusions: Our study highlights the importance of variable selection in EDM. We argue that the use of composite variables as proxies for complex environmental gradients has the potential to improve predictions from EDMs and thus to inform conservation planning as well as improve the precision and credibility of red lists and global change assessments.conservation planning, distribution modelling, ecosystem classification, ecosystem types, IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, landscape gradients, spatial prediction, species response curves

Expansion of the global protected‐area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate‐adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate‐change exposure across the Yellowstone‐to‐Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide‐ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low‐elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape‐level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected‐area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate‐change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection., Article Impact Statement: Rewilding concepts updated to consider climate change increase mitigation and biodiversity conservation gain from protected area expansion.

Biogeographic regionalization identifies natural species assemblages of a given region. In this study, the geographic distribution of chondrichthyan species richness and species assemblages for the Southwest Atlantic were identified. The geographic distribution of 103 chondrichthyans was estimated through modelling. Based on the obtained binary maps, the distribution of chondrichthyan richness was obtained at four taxonomic levels: class Chondrichthyes (chondrichthyans), subclass Holocephali (chimaeras), division Selachii (sharks), and division Batomorphi (batoids). The continental shelf off Uruguay and southern Brazil presented the highest levels of chondrichthyan richness, and a smaller peak was found in El Rincón (northern Argentina). Shark richness concentrated mainly off Lagoa dos Patos (southern Brazil). Batoid richness was maximal off Uruguay and northern Argentina, including modes in El Rincón, San Jorge Gulf, and slope of the Argentinean shelf. Classification analyses revealed the presence of a hierarchical regionalization, with three main and six minor assemblages. Main assemblages are hierarchically identifiable as provinces and minor ones as ecoregions or districts. Two of the main assemblages correspond with the Argentinean and Magellanic Provinces; the third one is identified here for the first time, the Patagonian Slope Province. This regionalization provides the basis for the design of protected area networks for conservation or management purposes. Fil: Sabadin, David Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina Fil: Lucifora, Luis Omar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto Nacional de Limnología. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto Nacional de Limnología; Argentina Fil: Barbini, Santiago Aldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina Fil: Figueroa, Daniel Enrique. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina Fil: Kittlein, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina

Introduction. Bryophyte diaspore banks are virtually ubiquitous in soil environments but remain poorly known and rarely given attention during conservation planning. This study investigates the fre...

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) is responsible for reviewing the biological status of hundreds of species to determine federal status designations under the Endangered Species Act. The longleaf pine Pinus palustris ecological system supports many priority at-risk species designated for review, including five species of herpetofauna: gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus, southern hognose snake Heterodon simus, Florida pine snake Pituophis melanoleucus mugitus, gopher frog Lithobates (Rana) capito, and striped newt Notophthalmus perstriatus. To inform status decisions and conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models to 1) identify habitat features that best predict species presence and 2) estimate the amount and distribution of suitable habitat across each species' range under current conditions. We incorporated expert judgment from federal, state, and other partners to capture variation in ecological settings across species' ranges, prioritize predictor variables to test in models, mitigate data limitations by informing the selection of pseudoabsence points, qualitatively evaluate model estimates, and improve the likelihood that experts will trust and use model predictions for conservation. Soil characteristics, land cover, and fire interval strongly influenced habitat suitability for all species. Suitable habitat was distributed on known species strongholds, as well as private lands without known species records. Between 4.7% (gopher frog) and 14.6% (gopher tortoise) of the area in a species' range was classified as suitable habitat, and between 28.1% (southern hognose snake) and 47.5% (gopher frog) of suitable habitat was located in patches larger than 1 km2 (100 ha) on publicly owned lands. By overlaying predictions for each species, we identified areas of suitable habitat for multiple species on protected and unprotected lands. These results have direct applications to management and conservation planning: partners can tailor site-level management based on attributes associated with high habitat suitability for species of concern; allocate survey effort in areas with suitable habitat but no known species records; and identify priority areas for management, land acquisitions, or other strategies based on the distribution of species records, suitable habitat, and land protection status. These results can aid regional partners in implementing effective conservation strategies and inform status designation decisions of the USFWS.

Biodiversity maps are an important component of ecosystem-based management and conservation. In the past, biodiversity maps were largely generated using patchy occurrence data from a range of data sources. Currently, substantial species occurrence data are readily available for large parts of the world and are accessible programmatically. Considering both the observed and expected changes in species distributions, and hence biodiversity, in response to present and future climate change, it is important to utilise readily available species occurrence databases to generate temporal and spatial biodiversity maps. In this study biodiversity maps were generated for three generic functional groups within the exclusive economic zone of South Africa: zooplankton, fishes and benthos. This was achieved by stacking individual species-distribution maps. Freely available occurrence data from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS) were accessed for this purpose. Ensemble species-distribution modelling, employing five widely used statistical methods, was used to generate species-distribution maps for each functional group. The resulting spatial patterns of biodiversity for the three functional groups were largely in agreement with known patterns. The results of this study highlight the value of open-source occurrence and environmental data to generate biodiversity maps that can potentially be used in future spatial prioritisation or planning for management of marine areas and in environmental-change studies.

Cetaceans play key roles in the world's ecosystems and provide important economic and social benefits. New Zealand's Exclusive Economic Zone is a global biodiversity hotspot for cetaceans and benefits from a system of marine protected areas (MPAs). However, spatial patterns of cetacean biodiversity and their overlap with MPAs have never been assessed.We quantify this overlap by using a comprehensive cetacean at-sea sightings database, high-resolution environmental data layers, and information on ecological and evolutionary characteristics of each species to model spatial patterns of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity of cetaceans. We examine areas of congruence among hotspots of richness and uniqueness components of biodiversity and measure the contribution of species to biodiversity.We find that cetacean taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity are spatially mismatched with MPAs, but this is less true for functional diversity. Hotspots of congruence among richness indices are located on the continental shelf break, whereas hotspots of uniqueness indices are located closer to shore on the continental shelf. Seven species have high contributions to biodiversity, with blue whale being the only species being evolutionarily distinct, functionally unique, specialised and globally endangered.Our results underline the potential of multicomponent biodiversity indices, their spatial congruence, and the contribution of species to biodiversity to be used as guides for a strategic placement and expansion of MPAs to protect biodiversity.

Direct and indirect measures of individual movement provide valuable knowledge regarding a species’ resiliency to environmental change. Information on patterns of movement can inform species management and conservation but is lacking for many imperiled fishes. The Candy Darter, Etheostoma osburni, is an endangered stream fish with a dramatically reduced distribution in Virginia in the eastern United States, now known from only four isolated populations. We used visual implant elastomer tags and microsatellite DNA markers to directly describe movement patterns in two populations. Parentage analysis based on parent‐offspring pairs was used to infer movement patterns of young‐of‐year and age‐1 individuals, as well as the reproductive contribution of certain adults. Direct measurements of movement distances were generally similar between methods, but microsatellite markers revealed greater distances moved, commensurate with greater spatial frames sampled. Parent‐offspring pairs were found throughout the species’ 18.8‐km distribution in Stony Creek, while most parent‐offspring pairs were in 2 km of the 4.25‐km distribution in Laurel Creek. Sibship reconstruction allowed us to characterize the mating system and number of spawning years for adults. Our results provide the first measures of movement patterns of Candy Darter as well as the spatial distribution of parent‐offspring pairs, which may be useful for selecting collection sites in source populations to be used for translocation or reintroductions. Our results highlight the importance of documenting species movement patterns and spatial distributions of related individuals as steps toward understanding population dynamics and informing translocation strategies. We also demonstrate that the reproductive longevity of this species is greater than previously described, which may be the case for other small stream fishes. Published version

Understanding the impact of multiple anthropogenic threats on tree species is urgently needed for estimating population decline and enabling coordinated and efficient conservation actions. We applied a spatially explicit framework to assess the vulnerability of three highly valuable Asian rosewood species (Dalbergia cochinchinensis, D. cultrata, D. oliveri) to five key threats across their native ranges in six countries of the Greater Mekong Subregion. All three species face significant threat levels from at least one of the five threats in more than 75% of their native ranges, including within existing protected areas. Overexploitation is the single most important threat (53–60%), followed by habitat conversion (17–41%) and fire (20–28%). About 21% of the distribution range of D. cultrata is under medium to very high threat from climate change, which is predicted to have less impact on D. oliveri and on D. cochinchinensis. Based on our threat assessment we delineated species-specific priority areas for conservation and restoration that we subdivided by ecoregions as a surrogate for adaptive variation within species. Half of the ecoregions were classified as priority for improving the conservation of adaptive variation in one or more of the species. We propose spatially explicit follow-up actions that include in situ conservation, restoration, and ex situ conservation to improve the effectiveness of current conservation measures to capture adaptive variation within species. Transboundary coordination will be important to effectively address conservation threats. The study can act as a model for regional planning for other valuable tree species., Biological Conservation, 270, ISSN:0006-3207, ISSN:1873-2917

Conservation planning aimed at halting biodiversity loss has seldom focused on groundwater environments due to the lack of suitable management tools and data. Using harpacticoid crustaceans as a test case, we explore the potential of implementing an approach based on Conservation-Relevant Hotspots for practical conservation of groundwater biodiversity. Conservation-Relevant Hotspots are identified by intersecting species richness, endemicity, and taxonomic distinctness with the aim to minimize the total area to protect. We show that, by targeting five Conservation-Relevant Hotspots that cover only 1.9% of the European land surface, one would protect as much as 44% of the harpacticoid crustacean richness, 93% of its endemicity, and 98% of its taxonomic distinctness. About 28% of the area occupied by these hotspots overlaps with protected areas, which calls for an increase in their protection coverage. Our framework proved a useful tool for conservation planning of environments where spatial or socio-economic constraints occur.

This research was supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and by the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University. RKR was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE210100492). JRR was supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT200100096) . 1. Recent advances in systematic conservation planning make use of modern portfolio theory - a framework to construct and select optimal allocation of assets - to address the challenges posed by climate change uncertainty. However, these methods are difficult to implement for fine scale conservation planning when the information on future climate scenarios is insufficient. Insufficient information makes the estimators of the key inputs in the optimisation procedure unreliable leading to technical problems for the construction of optimal asset allocation. 2. We identify three statistical methods - Constant Correlation Model, the Ledoit-Wolf approach and the weighted non-negative least-squares approach - that can overcome the lack of sufficient information and enable the use of modern portfolio theory for fine scale conservation planning. 3. We illustrate the use of the three methods for identifying efficient portfolio allocation strategies, i.e. strategies that give minimum amount of risk for a chosen level of return or maximum return for a chosen level of risk, using case studies of wetland conservation planning in North America and coastal conservation planning in Australia. We compare conservation planning strategies with complete information using standard portfolio theory and with insufficient information using the three methods to highlight their advantages and disadvantages. We find the Ledoit-Wolf and weighted non-negative least-squares approaches perform well and can identify risk-return out-comes that are close to those identified with complete information. 4. The methods presented in this study broaden the range of cases where the application of modern portfolio theory is possible in conservation planning to enhance its uptake and lead to more efficient allocation of conservation resources. Publisher PDF

Identifying conservation priorities for an understudied species can be challenging, as the amount and type of data available to work with are often limited. Here, we demonstrate a flexible workflow for identifying priorities for such data-limited species, focusing on the little-studied Asian golden cat (Catopuma temminckii) in mainland Tropical Asia. Using recent occurrence records, we modeled the golden cat’s expected area of occurrence and identified remaining habitat strongholds (i.e., large intact areas with moderate-to-high expected occurrence). We then classified these strongholds by recent camera-trap survey status (from a literature review) and near-future threat status (based on publicly available forest loss projections and Bayesian Belief Network derived estimates of hunting-induced extirpation risk) to identify conservation priorities. Finally, we projected the species’ expected area of occurrence in the year 2000, approximately three generations prior to today, to define past declines and better evaluate the species’ current conservation status. Lower levels of hunting-induced extirpation risk and higher levels of closed-canopy forest cover were the strongest predictors of recent camera-trap records. Our projections suggest a 68% decline in area with moderate-to-high expected occurrence between 2000 and 2020, with a further 18% decline predicted over the next 20 years. Past and near-future declines were primarily driven by cumulatively increasing levels of hunting-induced extirpation risk, suggesting assessments of conservation status based solely on declines in habitat may underestimate actual population declines. Of the 40 remaining habitat strongholds, 77.5% were seriously threatened by forest loss and hunting. Only 52% of threatened strongholds had at least one site surveyed, compared to 100% of low-to-moderate threat strongholds, thus highlighting an important knowledge gap concerning the species’ current distribution and population status. Our results suggest the golden cat has experienced, and will likely continue to experience, considerable population declines and should be considered for up-listing to a threatened category (i.e., VU/EN) under criteria A2c of the IUCN Red List.

Nature reserves in China are undergoing adjustments in functional zoning. Currently, one urgent problem is determining how to delineate core conservation zones more scientifically and rationally. This case study focused on the Houhe National Nature Reserve, Wufeng County, Hubei Province, China, and was based on the distribution data of seven species (Moschus berezovskii, Elaphodus cephalophus, Muntiacus reevesi, Naemorhedus griseus, Capricornis sumatraensis, Prionailurus bengalensis, and Ursus thibetanus), vegetation types, meteorological factors, human disturbance, terrain, and hydrological variables. Species distributions were predicted through MaxEnt modeling, and MARXAN software was used for systematic conservation planning. The results showed that (1) for the MaxEnt model simulations of one critically endangered (CR) species and six vulnerable (VU) species in Houhe National Nature Reserve, the area under curve (AUC) values of seven species were all greater than 0.8, of which the AUC of M. berezovskii was 0.961, indicating a high modeling accuracy; (2) based on the analysis of the MaxEnt model, MARXAN was used to delineate the core conservation zone of Houhe National Nature Reserve. When the boundary length modifier was set as 100 and planning units as hexagons with a boundary length of 200 m, the priority conservation areas had the fewest fragments. Thus, using these parameters for conservation planning is more reasonable; and (3) among the four proposals obtained from the MARXAN analysis that were based on different conservation targets, those with a conservation target of 80% for CR species and 60% for VU species had the largest priority conservation areas. According to the principles of maintaining ecosystem integrity and habitat connectivity of species and ensuring consistent conservation management, we propose a new functional zoning plan for Houhe National Nature Reserve. In this plan, the core conservation zone will have an area of 5947.76 ha, which will be greater than the sum of the areas of the current buffer and core zones, whereas the area of the general control zone will be 4395.64 ha.

[Aim]: Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause profound impacts on ecosystem function and diversity, human health, well- being and livelihoods. Climate change is an important driver of biological invasions, so it is critical to develop models and climate- driven scenarios of IAS range shifts to establish preventive measures. In this study, we analyse how projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extreme events could affect the spread of the six most widely distributed invasive vertebrate species in the Iberian Peninsula., [Location]: Iberian Peninsula., [Taxa]: Red avadavat (Amandava amandava), common waxbill (Estrilda astrild), monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus), rose- ringed parakeet (Psittacula krameri), American mink (Neovison vison) and pond slider (Trachemys scripta)., [Methods]: We followed best- practice standards for species distribution models (SDMs) regarding handling of the response and predictor variables, model building and evaluation using metrics that assess different facets of model performance. We used an ensemble approach with four modelling methods of varying complexity, including both regression- based and tree- based machine- learning algorithms. We analysed five regional models for current (1971– 2000) and future climate (2021– 2050). We used principal components analysis to assess consensus among model outputs and positively weighed predictions from well- performing models., [Results]: Selected models showed high consensus and good predictive capacity on block cross- validation areas. Generalized Linear Models and Generalized Additive Models scored highest in reliability (calibration), but Bayesian Additive Regression Trees provided the best balance between calibration and discrimination capacity. Forecasts include visible changes in environmental favourability, with losses generally outweighing the gains, but with some areas becoming more favourable for several species., [Main conclusions]: Increased frequency and/or intensity of climate extreme events associated with ongoing climate change are projected to reduce overall invasion risk for the species examined although increases in favourability should be expected locally., This study was partially funded by the regional Government of Castilla- La Mancha through research projects POII10- 0076- 4195 and SBPLY/19/180501/000122. MBA’s research on invasive species is supported by the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) within the framework of projects POCI- 01- 0145- FEDER- 030931 and PTDC/BIA- ECO/0207/2020.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used in conservation and land-use planning as inputs to describe biodiversity patterns. These models can be built in different ways, and decisions about data preparation, selection of predictor variables, model fitting, and evaluation all alter the resulting predictions. Commonly, the true distribution of species is unknown and independent data to verify which SDM variant to choose are lacking. Such model uncertainty is of concern to planners. We analyzed how 11 routine decisions about model complexity, predictors, bias treatment, and setting thresholds for predicted values altered conservation priority patterns across 25 species. Models were created with MaxEnt and run through Zonation to determine the priority rank of sites. Although all SDM variants performed well (area under the curve0.7), they produced spatially different predictions for species and different conservation priority solutions. Priorities were most strongly altered by decisions to not address bias or to apply binary thresholds to predicted values; on average 40% and 35%, respectively, of all grid cells received an opposite priority ranking. Forcing high model complexity altered conservation solutions less than forcing simplicity (14% and 24% of cells with opposite rank values, respectively). Use of fewer species records to build models or choosing alternative bias treatments had intermediate effects (25% and 23%, respectively). Depending on modeling choices, priority areas overlapped as little as 10-20% with the baseline solution, affecting top and bottom priorities differently. Our results demonstrate the extent of model-based uncertainty and quantify the relative impacts of SDM building decisions. When it is uncertain what the best SDM approach and conservation plan is, solving uncertainty or considering alterative options is most important for those decisions that change plans the most.Efecto de las Decisiones sobre Modelos Adecuados de Distribución de Especies sobre los Resultados de Conservación Resumen Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDEs) se usan cada vez más en la planeación de la conservación y del uso de suelo como contribuciones para describir los patrones de la biodiversidad. Estos modelos pueden construirse de maneras diferentes y las decisiones sobre la preparación de datos, selección de las variables de pronóstico y la adecuación y evaluación del modelo alteran las predicciones resultantes. Generalmente, la verdadera distribución de las especies se desconoce y se carece de los datos independientes para verificar cuál variante de MDE elegir. Dicha incertidumbre con los modelos es preocupante para los planificadores. Analizamos cómo once decisiones rutinarias sobre el modelo, su complejidad, los predictores, el tratamiento del sesgo y el establecimiento de umbrales para los valores pronosticados alteraron los patrones de prioridades de conservación para 25 especies. Creamos los modelos con MaxEnt y los corrimos en Zonation para determinar el rango de prioridad de los sitios. Aunque todas las variantes de los MDE tuvieron un buen desempeño (área bajo la curva0.7), todos produjeron predicciones espaciales diferentes para las especies y diferentes soluciones prioritarias de conservación. Las prioridades tuvieron la alteración más fuerte cuando se decidió no considerar el sesgo o aplicar umbrales binarios a los valores pronosticados; en promedio, el 40% y 35%, respectivamente, de todas las celdas de la cuadrícula recibieron una clasificación opuesta de prioridad. Cuando se forzó una complejidad alta para el modelo, se alteraron menos las soluciones de conservación que cuando se forzó la simplicidad (14% y 24% de las celdas con valores opuestos de clasificación, respectivamente). El uso de menos registros de especies para construir modelos o elegir tratamientos alternativos para el sesgo tuvo efectos intermedios (25% y 23%, respectivamente). Según la elección del modelo, las áreas prioritarias se traslaparon mínimamente en 10-20% con la solución de la línea base, afectando a las prioridades de arriba y abajo de maneras diferentes. Nuestros resultados demuestran el alcance de la incertidumbre basada en los modelos y cuantifican el impacto relativo de las decisiones al construir los MDE. Cuando no es seguro cuál es el mejor plan de conservación ni la mejor estrategia de MDE, es de suma importancia solucionar la incertidumbre o considerar soluciones alternativas para aquellas decisiones que más cambian los planes.

Many cetacean species are at risk from anthropogenic disturbances including climate change, pollution, and habitat degradation. Identifying cetacean hotspots for conservation management is therefore required. Aotearoa–New Zealand waters are used by 53% of the world’s cetacean species and are a global cetacean diversity hotspot. Using geographic predictions of cetacean taxa, we aimed to identify important areas within New Zealand waters using two methods: estimates of cetacean richness and a spatial prioritization analysis. For both methods, we investigated how varying levels of uncertainty in predictions of the taxa’ occurrence layers would affect our interpretation of cetacean hotspots. Despite some marked spatial differences in distribution of important areas for cetacean diversity, both methods, across all uncertainty scenarios, highlighted six distinct deep offshore regions as important habitat. Generally, inshore areas had lower richness estimates than offshore areas, but these remain important for conservation for species with limited ranges (e.g., the endemic Māui and Hector’s dolphins), and in some places had similar richness values to offshore hotspots. Furthermore, inshore hotspots had lower uncertainty in predicted taxa distribution and richness estimates. The use of two different uncertainty estimates allows the integration of distributional information from differing sources (different modeling methods with varying numbers of cetacean records) to be integrated in a robust and conservative way. Identification of cetacean hotspots with varying levels of uncertainty provides a robust and efficient step toward prioritizing areas for conservation management in a participatory process.

Populations of many species of grassland‐associated butterflies, moths, and bumblebees in the Great Plains of North America are experiencing steep declines due to habitat loss and degradation—primarily conversion of grasslands to row‐crop agriculture and invasion of woody plants and exotic cool‐season grasses—and insecticide use. These declines are exacerbated by the generally limited dispersal ability of insects, which make local populations susceptible to extirpation following habitat fragmentation. Interest in pollinator conservation has grown substantially in recent years, but information to guide pollinator conservation across the region is limited. We used pollinator biology along with principles of landscape ecology and metapopulation dynamics to develop a simple decision matrix based on patch size and inter‐patch distances to guide landscape‐scale grassland conservation efforts in the U.S. northern Great Plains. When applied to spatial land cover data depicting potential pollinator habitat, the matrix uses landscape characteristics to guide placement of conservation treatments to help ensure persistence of target pollinator populations. Patch size and connectivity thresholds can be set to match characteristics of target species, but in all cases, local management will be necessary to ensure that fine‐grained features such as nectar sources and host plants are present. Applying the matrix to habitat layers for a nine‐state analysis region showed substantial geographic variation in conservation needs, opportunities, and potential treatments. We also demonstrate that non‐native planted cover such as alfalfa and certain grasslands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program can substantially enhance landscape structure by increasing grassland patch size and core area while decreasing distance between patches. Pollinators dependent on native prairie will also benefit from planted cover that provides nectar sources and serves as a buffer from pesticides associated with croplands. Consistent with the principles of strategic habitat conservation, targeted monitoring and research will be necessary to validate and adapt the model to meet local conditions.

Signatory countries to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) are formulating goals and indicators through 2050 under the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). Among the goals is increasing the integrity of ecosystems. The CBD is now seeking input toward a quantifiable definition of integrity and methods to track it globally. Here, we offer a schema for using Earth observations (EO) to monitor and evaluate global forest ecosystem integrity (EI). Our approach builds on three topics: the concept of EI, the use of satellite‐based EO, and the use of “essential biodiversity variables” to monitor and report on it. Within this schema, EI is a measure of the structure, function, and composition of an ecosystem relative to the range of variation determined by climatic–geophysical environment. We use evaluation criteria to recommend eight potential indicators of EI that can be monitored around the globe using Earth Observations to support the efforts of nations to monitor and report progress to implement the post‐2020 GBF. If operationalized, this schema should help Parties to the CBD take action and report progress on achieving ecosystem commitments during this decade.

Loss of connectivity caused by anthropogenic barriers is a key threat for migratory freshwater species. The anadromous life history of salmonids means that barriers on streams can decrease the amount of habitat available for spawning and rearing. To set appropriate targets for restoration, it is important to know how different populations have been impacted in terms of the location and extent of historically available habitat that has been lost or has become inaccessible. Using mapped and predicted barriers to fish passage in streams and diking infrastructure, the amount of both floodplain and linear stream habitat that remains accessible today was estimated for 14 populations of salmon in the Lower Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada’s most productive salmon river. To place these estimates within a historical context, the floodplain area was estimated using vegetation records from the 1850s, and lost streams were estimated using a digital elevation model‐derived stream network. To bolster areas where little mapping has been done, current barrier data were used to predict locations likely to have barriers. Accessibility to floodplain was poor across the entire region with only 15% of the historical floodplain remaining accessible. Linear stream habitat ranged in accessibility from 28% to 99% across populations based on mapped barriers. Inclusion of predicted barriers revealed an additional 33 km of potentially inaccessible stream habitat and the modeled stream network located approximately 1700 km of stream length that has been completely lost. Comparing habitat accessibility and barrier density against the assessed status of populations revealed insights useful for understanding the impact of barriers on spawning and rearing and guiding the allocation of restoration effort. Applying methods for addressing missing data, such as lost streams and unmapped barriers, was essential for estimating the accessibility of habitat within a historical context. While much emphasis has been placed on the role of marine conditions in wild Pacific salmon recovery, the magnitude of habitat loss in the Fraser cannot be ignored and suggests it is a major driver of observed salmon declines.

Conservation efforts often focus on umbrella species whose distributions overlap with many other flora and fauna. However, because biodiversity is affected by different threats that are spatially variable, focusing only on the geographic range overlap of species may not be sufficient in allocating the necessary actions needed to efficiently abate threats. We developed a problem‐based method for prioritizing conservation actions for umbrella species that maximizes the total number of flora and fauna benefiting from management while considering threats, actions, and costs. We tested our new method by assessing the performance of the Australian federal government's umbrella prioritization list, which identifies 73 umbrella species as priorities for conservation attention. Our results show that the federal government priority list benefits only 6% of all Australia's threatened terrestrial species. This could be increased to benefit nearly half (or 46%) of all threatened terrestrial species for the same budget of AU$550 million/year if more suitable umbrella species were chosen. This results in a 7‐fold increase in management efficiency. We believe nations around the world can markedly improve the selection of prioritized umbrella species for conservation action with this transparent, quantitative, and objective prioritization approach., Article impact statement: Considering spatially overlapping species, threats, actions, and costs in conservation prioritization yields 7‐fold increase in efficiency.

The use of surrogates in conservation planning for at-risk species is both a necessary and a fraught practice. Here we assess the use of the position of the low-salinity zone in California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta as a surrogate for the extent and quality of habitat available to the imperiled delta smelt. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service issued a biological opinion and incidental take statement under the Endangered Species Act analyzing the impacts of ongoing operation of two large water infrastructure projects on the delta smelt. The Service’s analysis and the conservation actions it imposed are based on the assumption that the low-salinity zone can serve as a “surrogate indicator” for delta smelt habitat. We demonstrate that available scientific information on the species countermands use of the low-salinity zone to represent delta smelt habitat in conservation planning for the species, and that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service erred by assuming the existence of a surrogate relationship absent validation using the best available scientific information. Notably, large expanses within the low-salinity zone are unoccupied by delta smelt and the species consistently occurs outside of it. This case serves to remind scientists of the dysfunction between a consensus in the scientific literature that calls for analytical validation prior to the use of species surrogates and habitat proxies, and the commonplace practice of using surrogates and proxies based on surmise and assertion.

Aim Common species contribute more to species richness patterns (SRPs) than rare species in most studies. Our aim was to test this hypothesis using a novel model system, species living exclusively in subterranean habitats. They consist of mainly rare species (small ranges), only a few of them being common (large ranges), and challenge whether rare species are less important for the development of SRPs in this environment. We separately analyzed aquatic and terrestrial species. Location Western Balkans in southeastern Europe. Methods We assembled two datasets comprising 431 beetle and 145 amphipod species, representing the model groups of subterranean terrestrial and aquatic diversity, respectively. We assessed the importance of rare and common species using the stepwise reconstruction of SRPs and subsequent correlation analyses, corrected also for the cumulative information content of the subsets based on species prevalence. We applied generalized linear regression models to evaluate the importance of rare and common species in forming SRPs. Additionally, we analyzed the contribution of rare and common species in species‐rich cells. Results Patterns of subterranean aquatic and terrestrial species richness overlapped only weakly, with aquatic species having larger ranges than terrestrial ones. Our analyses supported higher importance of common species for forming overall SRPs in both beetles and amphipods. However, in stepwise analysis corrected for information content, results were ambiguous. Common species presented a higher proportion of species than rare species in species‐rich cells. Main Conclusion We have shown that even in habitats with the domination of rare species, it is still common species that drive SRPs. This may be due to an even spatial distribution of rare species or spatial mismatch in hotspots of rare and common species. SRPs of aquatic and terrestrial subterranean organisms overlap very little, so the conservation approaches need to be habitat specific., We studied whether species richness patterns develop due to rare or common species, using a novel model system, subterranean species. Subterranean species with extremely high endemism, challenge the view that common species constitute a backbone of species richness patterns. Although subterranean aquatic and terrestrial species differ in degrees of endemism and spatial patterns, our analyses consistently imply that also in such systems common species backbone the patterns.

Diversity and Distributions Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Aim: Deforestation is rapidly altering Southeast Asian landscapes, resulting in some of the highest rates of habitat loss worldwide. Among the many species facing declines in this region, clouded leopards rank notably for their ambassadorial potential and capacity to act as powerful levers for broader forest conservation programmes. Thus, identifying core habitat and conservation opportunities are critical for curbing further Neofelis declines and extending umbrella protection for diverse forest biota similarly threatened by widespread habitat loss. Furthermore, a recent comprehensive habitat assessment of Sunda clouded leopards (N. diardi) highlights the lack of such information for the mainland species (N. nebulosa) and facilitates a comparative assessment. Location: Southeast Asia. Methods: Species–habitat relationships are scale-dependent, yet

Most people can name a mammal or bird that has become extinct in recent centuries, but few can name a recently extinct plant. We present a comprehensive, global analysis of modern extinction in plants. Almost 600 species have become extinct, at a higher rate than background extinction, but almost as many have been erroneously declared extinct and then been rediscovered. Reports of extinction on islands, in the tropics and of shrubs, trees or species with narrow ranges are least likely to be refuted by rediscovery. Plant extinctions endanger other organisms, ecosystems and human well-being, and must be understood for effective conservation planning.

Background Understanding geographic distributions of species is a crucial step in spatial planning for biodiversity conservation, particularly as regards changes in response to global climate change. This information is especially important for species of global conservation concern that are susceptible to the effects of habitat loss and climate change. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to assess the current and future geographic distributional potential of White-breasted Guineafowl (Agelastes meleagrides) (Vulnerable) across West Africa. Methods We used primary occurrence data obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and national parks in Liberia and Sierra Leone, and two independent environmental datasets (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index at 250 m spatial resolution, and Worldclim climate data at 2.5′ spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios and 27 general circulation models for 2050) to build ecological niche models in Maxent. Results From the projections, White-breasted Guineafowl showed a broader potential distribution across the region compared to the current IUCN range estimate for the species. Suitable areas were concentrated in the Gola rainforests in northwestern Liberia and southeastern Sierra Leone, the Tai-Sapo corridor in southeastern Liberia and southwestern Côte d’Ivoire, and the Nimba Mountains in northern Liberia, southeastern Guinea, and northwestern Côte d’Ivoire. Future climate-driven projections anticipated minimal range shifts in response to climate change. Conclusions By combining remotely sensed data and climatic data, our results suggest that forest cover, rather than climate is the major driver of the species’ current distribution. Thus, conservation efforts should prioritize forest protection and mitigation of other anthropogenic threats (e.g. hunting pressure) affecting the species.

In recent years, scientific investigations on the effectiveness of Protected Areas (PAs) in conserving biodiversity and sustaining ecosystem functions under the impact of climate change have increasingly received more attention from researchers and park managers. In this study, we used a combination of species distribution modelling (SDM) and spatial hierarchical systematic conservation planning technique to delineate and prioritize areas for endemic plant species conservation under current and future (2050s, 2070s) climate conditions in Sikkim Himalaya. Data on endemic plant species occurrence were sourced from our already published studies and their potential suitable habitats under current and future climates were modelled using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) SDM. The MaxEnt habitat suitability projections of species were used in Zonation software to identify priority conservation areas in Sikkim Himalaya. We found that the existing PA network in the region was inadequate in conserving the endemic plant diversity either in the current or future climate scenarios. Based on our results, we propose addition of 896 square kilometres (sq km) to the existing PA network in the study area to ensure meaningful conservation goals. Additionally, we propose creation of 3 new PAs (Yumsedong, Lachen and Chungthang) and the need for expanding the boundaries of existing PAs (Maenam, Fambong Lho and Barsey) in the study area. Our analyses show that to mitigate the effects of ensuing climate change, a single large PA with wide geographic and elevational extents instead of several smaller PAs would be a more prudent strategy for conserving the plant diversity in the Himalaya.

Conservation planning needs reliable information on spatial patterns of biodiversity. However, existing data sets are skewed: some habitats, taxa, and locations are under-represented. Here, we map geographic publication density at the sub-national scale of individual 'provinces'. We query the Web of Science catalogues SCI and SSCI for biodiversity-related publications including country and province names (for the period 1993-2016). We combine these data with other provincial-scale factors hypothesised to affect research (i.e. economic development, human presence, infrastructure and remoteness). We show that sites that appear to be understudied, compared with the biodiversity expected from their bioclimatic conditions, are likely to have been inaccessible to researchers for a diversity of reasons amongst which current or recent armed conflicts are notable. Finally, we create a priority list of provinces where geographic publication bias is of most concern, and discuss how our provincial-scale model can assist in adjusting for publication biases in conservation planning., Comment: 10 pages; 3 figures; 1 table;R code on https://github.com/raffael-hickisch; data at https://zenodo.org/record/998889; interactive at http://bit.ly/publication_density_map