Search

Key ecological function areas are responsible for protecting and restoring ecosystems and alleviating regional ecological deterioration. Revealing the inherent relationship between land use/cover (LULC) change and ecosystem service value (ESV) in such areas is of great significance for sustainable development. We used LULC and other data from 2000, 2010, and 2018 to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of ESV in China’s Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Barrier based on six LULC types: Farmland, Forest, Grassland, Water, Built-up land, and Other. With the goal of maximizing both ESV and economic benefits, we used coupled gray multi-objective optimization (GMOP) and patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) models to assess three scenarios (business-as-usual, BAU; ecological development priority, EDP; and ecological and economic balance, EEB) in terms of the spatial distribution and optimization of LULC structure in 2026. The study area was dominated by Forest and Grassland, with major LULC changes from 2000 to 2018 mainly deriving from transfers between Farmland, Forest, and Grassland along with Farmland conversion to Built-up land. ESV trended upward during the study period, mainly due to contributions from Forest and Water. Under EDP scenario in 2026, the expansion Built-up land was eased, which expansion area is the smallest among the 3 scenarios at 643.03 km2, the Forest area increased by 673.80 km2, the overall LULC structure was improved, and the total ESV increased by 2.502 billion yuan. Under EEB scenario, Forest area decreased by 405.95 km2, but the economic benefits increased remarkably, showing the effect of supporting larger-scale economic growth with less land resource consumption. Under EDP scenario, ESV changes were most dramatic at local scales. The use of coupled GMOP-PLUS models for LULC optimization allowed improved assessment of social, economic, and environmental factors and provided a new way to address key technical problem in land-use planning in large-scale ecological function areas.

Land use changes induced by human activities change landscape patterns and ecological processes, threatening regional and global ecosystems. Terrain gradient and anthropogenic multi-policy regulation can have a pronounced effect on landscape components. Forecasting the changing trend of landscape ecological risk (LER) is important for national ecological security and regional sustainability. The present study assessed changes in LER in the Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Barrier over a 20-year period using land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. The enhanced Markov-PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model was used to predict and analyze the spatial distribution pattern of LER under the following three scenarios. These were business-as-usual (BAU), urban development and construction (UDC), and ecological development priority (EDP) in 2030. The influence of terrain conditions on LER was also explored. The results showed that over the past 20 years, the LER index increased and then decreased and was dominated by medium and low risk, accounting for more than 70% of the total risk-rated area. The highest and higher risk areas for the three future scenarios have increased in spatial extent. The UDC scenario showed the largest increase of 3341.13 km2 and 2684.85 km2, respectively. The highest-risk level has a strong selectivity for low gradients, with high-level risks more likely to occur at low gradients. The response of ecological risk to gradient changes shows a positive correlation distribution for high-gradient areas and a negative correlation distribution for low-gradient areas. The influence of future topographic gradient changes on LER remains significant. The value of multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) for identifying the spatial heterogeneity of terrain gradient and LER is highlighted. It can play an important role in the formulation of scientific solutions for LER prevention and of an ecological conservation policy for mountainous areas with complex terrain.