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Protected areas are essential conservation tools for mitigating the rapid decline of biodiversity. However, climate change represents one of the main challenges to their long‐term effectiveness, as it induces rapid changes in the geographical distribution of many species. We used ecological niche modelling to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of five endemic owls in the Atlantic Forest and evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas network for their conservation. The results indicate that the protected areas network is currently effective in terms of representativeness for most species; however, there will be a decline for all species in the coming decades because of climate change. We found that the ecoregions in the northern part of the Atlantic Forest will experience a higher loss of species, whereas those ecoregions in the southern part will be important stable climatic refuges in the future. Therefore, we emphasize the need to complement the network of protected areas to increase their representativeness in the distribution of species that will be affected by climate change, reducing species loss and increasing connectivity between suitable areas. We hope the results presented herein will serve as a basis for decision‐makers to re‐evaluate and improve current conservation policies and decisions in order to address the challenges posed by climate change and secure the survival of these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is considered to be a leading cause of species extinction, yet the likely effects of climate change on geographic distributions and conservation status of many threatened African plants have not seen detailed evaluation. Here, we used ecological niche modelling approaches to explore and evaluate climate change effects on potential geographic distributions of plants of the threatened West‐Central African genus Talbotiella. Our models showed that suitability was lower in the northern parts of its range in West Africa and at it's southern extremes in West‐Central Africa. Areas of West Africa between Liberia and southwestern Ghana were identified as potentially suitable areas where new populations or species of the genus could be discovered. Our model transfers to future conditions showed range shifts and contractions in the geographic distribution of the genus; species of the genus are threatened by additional factors such as habitat loss or degradation, agriculture and development of industrial infrastructure. Although species of the genus will likely persist in protected areas, conservation efforts should also include ex situ conservation approaches, particularly as regards individual species in the genus. This study shows how niche modelling approaches could be used to enhance the conservation and discovery of African biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change ranks among the most important issues globally, affecting geographic distributions of vectors and pathogens, and inducing losses in livestock production among many other damaging effects. We characterized the potential geographic distribution of the ticks Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, an important vector of babesiosis and anaplasmosis globally. We evaluated potential geographic shifts in suitability patterns for this species in two periods (2050 and 2070) and under two emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our results anticipate increases in suitability worldwide, particularly in the highest production areas for cattle. The Indo-Malayan region resulted in the highest cattle exposure under both climate change projections (2050), with increases in suitability of > 30%. This study illustrates how ecological niche modeling can be used to explore probable effects of climate change on disease vectors, and the possible consequences on economic dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Species‐level forecasts of distributional potential and likely distributional shifts, in the face of changing climates, have become popular in the literature in the past 20 years. Many refinements have been made to the methodology over the years, and the result has been an approach that considers multiple sources of variation in geographic predictions, and how that variation translates into both specific predictions and uncertainty in those predictions. Although numerous previous reviews and overviews of this field have pointed out a series of assumptions and caveats associated with the methodology, three aspects of the methodology have important impacts but have not been treated previously in detail. Here, we assess those three aspects: (1) effects of niche truncation on model transfers to future climate conditions, (2) effects of model selection procedures on future‐climate transfers of ecological niche models, and (3) relative contributions of several factors (replicate samples of point data, general circulation models, representative concentration pathways, and alternative model parameterizations) to overall variance in model outcomes. Overall, the view is one of caution: although resulting predictions are fascinating and attractive, this paradigm has pitfalls that may bias and limit confidence in niche model outputs as regards the implications of climate change for species’ geographic distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goldspotted oak borer Agrilus auroguttatus Schaeffer is an invasive pest of three Quercus species in southern California, U.S.A. As a native and potentially indigenous exotic species, its distribution and potential damage is largely unknown in Mexico., We used the maximum entropy algorithm to determine the bioclimatic variables that may explain the distribution of A. auroguttatus, as well as its interaction with the distribution of known hosts in Mexico., Our model calculated high suitability for A. auroguttatus in the biogeographical provinces of California, the northern and southern areas of Sierra Madre Occidental and the northwestern area of the Mexican Plateau; moderate suitability was projected in the Baja California, Sonora and Sierra Madre Occidental provinces. Potential distribution of A. auroguttatus was overlapping with native ranges of Quercus agrifolia, Quercus emoryi Torrey and Quercus hypoleucoides A. Camus. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (23.6%), isothermality (23.5%), precipitation seasonality (17.3%) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (11.2%) contributed most to explaining its distribution in Mexico., The geographical interaction (i.e. the likelihood that the habitat would be suitable for coexistence) of A. auroguttatus with its hosts in Mexico was projected in the California province (46 382.60 km2, probably as an exotic species) and the northwestern areas of Mexican Plateau and Sierra Madre Occidental provinces (74 013.45 km2, probably as native)., Determining the areas of environmental suitability for A. auroguttatus and its host distribution can focus ground surveys, contribute to management efforts and assist in the development of risk assessments for Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Here, we describe climate change effects on biodiversity, mainly in pest species related to greenhouse production. We used statistical and theoretical methods to describe crops' vulnerability under worldwide climate change. Some insects (flies) generate economic damage in mushroom, strawberry, and nursery production. We determined potential risk areas for the invasion of three fly species under different climate change scenarios in 2050. Range expansion was determined in the Northern Hemisphere; however, some regions in South America, Africa, and Australia had increases and potentially invasive areas. Our results provide information for farmers, researchers, and politicians for decision-making around production to reduce possible damage caused by pests. Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological niche models and species distribution models are used in many fields of science. Despite their popularity, only recently have important aspects of the modeling process like model selection been developed. Choosing environmental variables with which to create these models is another critical part of the process, but methods currently in use are not consistent in their results and no comprehensive approach exists by which to perform this step. Here, we compared seven heuristic methods of variable selection against a novel approach that proposes to select best sets of variables by evaluating performance of models created with all combinations of variables and distinct parameter settings of the algorithm in concert. Our results were that—except for the jackknife method for one of the 12 species and fluctuation index for two of the 12 species—none of the heuristic methods for variable selection coincided with the exhaustive one. Performance decreased in models created using variables selected with heuristic methods and both underfitting and overfitting were detected when comparing their geographic projections with the ones of models created with variables selected with the exhaustive method. Using the exhaustive approach could be time consuming, so a two-step exercise may be necessary. However, using this method identifies adequate variable sets and parameter settings in concert that are associated with increased model performance. • An exhaustive variable selection procedure incorporated in calibration processes ecological niche models (ENM). • Statistical performance of selected models to select the most appropriate variable sets in ENM. • Comparison of exhaustive and heuristic methods for variable selection in ENM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding geographic distributions of species is a crucial step in spatial planning for biodiversity conservation, particularly as regards changes in response to global climate change. This information is especially important for species of global conservation concern that are susceptible to the effects of habitat loss and climate change. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to assess the current and future geographic distributional potential of White-breasted Guineafowl (Agelastes meleagrides) (Vulnerable) across West Africa. Methods: We used primary occurrence data obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and national parks in Liberia and Sierra Leone, and two independent environmental datasets (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index at 250 m spatial resolution, and Worldclim climate data at 2.5′ spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios and 27 general circulation models for 2050) to build ecological niche models in Maxent. Results: From the projections, White-breasted Guineafowl showed a broader potential distribution across the region compared to the current IUCN range estimate for the species. Suitable areas were concentrated in the Gola rainforests in northwestern Liberia and southeastern Sierra Leone, the Tai-Sapo corridor in southeastern Liberia and southwestern Côte d'Ivoire, and the Nimba Mountains in northern Liberia, southeastern Guinea, and northwestern Côte d'Ivoire. Future climate-driven projections anticipated minimal range shifts in response to climate change. Conclusions: By combining remotely sensed data and climatic data, our results suggest that forest cover, rather than climate is the major driver of the species' current distribution. Thus, conservation efforts should prioritize forest protection and mitigation of other anthropogenic threats (e.g. hunting pressure) affecting the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]