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Using horizontal and vertical GNSS time series data from the GSI in sotheastern Kyushu from January 1, 2017 to June 30, 2022, we detected a recent long-term slow slip event (L-SSE) that occurred in the Hyuga-nada region, southwest Japan, and estimated its spatiotemporal slip distribution. We performed such analysis considering the piecewise evolution of slip over time with time windows of 0.8 years to ensure a good signal-to-noise ratio in the horizontal displacements in each time window. The results showed that a slip of more than 2 cm occurred in the central part of Miyazaki Prefecture from 2018.5 to 2019.3 (the units were 0.1 years = 36.5 days). Then, the amount of slip increased and expanded slightly to the southern part of Miyazaki Prefecture from 2019.3 to 2020.1, and the amount of slip reached a maximum of 3.9 cm in the subsequent period (2020.1–2020.9). A smaller slip occurred at almost the same location in the following 0.8 years. Therefore, the duration of the L-SSE was approximately 3.2 years from approximately 2018.5 to 2021.7. The annual average maximum slip rate was approximately 4.9 cm/yr (3.9 cm/0.8 yr) during the period from 2020.1 to 2020.9. The maximum total slip was estimated to be approximately 12.9 cm, and the equivalent release moment was 4.9 × 1019 Nm, corresponding to Mw7.1. Compared to previous L-SSEs that occurred in the Hyuga-nada region, the annual average maximum slip rate was relatively low, and the main total slip was estimated at almost the same location on the plate interface. On the other hand, the slip duration of this L-SSE was the longest, and the release moment and moment magnitude were the greatest. The total slip area of more than approximately 10 cm in the Hyuga-nada L-SSE estimated in this study almost overlapped with the afterslip area of the December 3, 1996 Hyuga-nada earthquake, with a depth range of approximately 30–40 km. Short-term SSEs also occurred in the same depth range. These coincidental same depth ranges of interplate seismic events stem from large thermal gradients. The large thermal gradients play an important role in narrowing the depth range of frictional parameters (a–b) at the plate interface. In addition, the pore pressure and normal stress are closely related to the critical stiffness. In particular, contrasting values of pore pressure and normal stress at the shallow and deep sides of the mantle wedge corner may also contribute to transient aseismic slip within the same depth range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In southern Chile, the Nazca plate is subducting beneath the South American plate. This region was struck by megathrust earthquakes in 1960 and 2010 and is characterized by the existence of a volcanic chain. In this region, we modeled a three-dimensional thermal structure associated with the subduction of the Nazca plate by using numerical simulations. Based on the obtained temperature distribution, we determined the updip and downdip limit temperatures for the region ruptured by these two megathrust earthquakes. In addition, the distributions of water content and dehydration gradient were calculated by using appropriate phase diagrams and compared with the location of the volcanic chain. As a result, we infer that the coseismic slip of the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule earthquake occurred only at temperatures lower than and around the 350 °C isotherm that resembles the beginning of the brittle‒ductile transition. We also deduce that the rupture of the 1960 Mw9.5 Valdivia earthquake propagated up to the 450 °C isotherm because the magnitude was considerably large and the young hot plate subducted near the Chile Ridge. In addition, the hydrous minerals in the turbidites, MORB and ultramafic rocks released fluids via dehydration reactions, and dehydrated water migrated upward almost vertically, decreasing the melting point of the mantle wedge and contributing to the formation of the volcanic chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing thermal regime is one of the key mechanisms driving seismogenic behaviors at cold megathrusts, but it is difficult to interpret warm subduction zones such as Vanuatu for the temperatures are higher than that accommodates shallow brittle failures. We construct a 3-D thermomechanical model to clarify the thermal structure that controls tectonic seismicity in Vanuatu and predict a warm circumstance associated with abundant seismicity. Results reveal a heterogeneous slab ranging from 300 °C to over 900 °C from the Moho to subvolcanic depth. The subduction seismicity corresponds well to the plate interface where dynamic thermal dehydration is focused. The transformation from hydrated basalts to eclogites along the slab facilitates the occurrence of intense earthquakes and slips. Multistage mineralogical metamorphism affects the dynamic stability of megathrusts and favors the generation of active interplate large events. Therefore, slab thermal dehydration plays a greater role than slab temperature condition in influencing the subduction earthquake distribution in warm subduction systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large subduction earthquakes induce complex postseismic deformation, primarily driven by afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, in addition to interplate relocking processes. However, these signals are intricately intertwined, posing challenges in determining the timing and nature of relocking. Here, we use six years of continuous GNSS measurements (2015–2021) to study the spatiotemporal evolution of afterslip, seismicity and locking after the 2015 Illapel earthquake ( M w 8.3). Afterslip is inverted from postseismic displacements corrected for nonlinear viscoelastic relaxation modeled using a power-law rheology, and the distribution of locking is obtained from the linear trend of GNSS stations. Our results show that afterslip is mainly concentrated in two zones surrounding the region of largest coseismic slip. The accumulated afterslip (corresponding to M w 7.8) exceeds 1.5 m, with aftershocks mainly occurring at the boundaries of the afterslip patches. Our results reveal that the region experiencing the largest coseismic slip undergoes rapid relocking, exhibiting the behavior of a persistent velocity weakening asperity, with no observed aftershocks or afterslip within this region during the observed period. The rapid relocking of this asperity may explain the almost regular recurrence time of earthquakes in this region, as similar events occurred in 1880 and 1943. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigated the relationship between the strain accumulation before a slow slip event (SSE) and the strain release during the SSE for three recent SSEs along the Suruga Trough, Sagami Trough, and Nankai Trough, which are subduction zones in central to southwest Japan. The three analysed SSEs were the 2013–2016 Tokai long-term SSE (L-SSE), the 2018 Boso-Oki short-term SSE (S-SSE), and the 2019–2021 Central Shikoku L-SSE. We applied exponential and logarithmic functions to remove the postseismic deformations caused by the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. We discovered a strong negative correlation between strain accumulation and strain release in the dilatation of all three SSEs and in the maximum shear strain of the 2018 Boso-Oki S-SSE. A comparison of the amount of strain accumulation with that of strain release revealed that approximately 30% of the strain was released in the 2013–2016 Tokai L-SSE, that 40% of the strain was released in the 2019–2021 Central Shikoku L-SSE, and that approximately 60% of the strain was released in the 2018 Boso-Oki S-SSE. This finding suggests that all of the accumulated strains are not necessarily released by the SSEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the spatiotemporal changes in strain associated with the occurrence of slow slip events (SSEs) in the subduction zones of the Japanese Islands and compared the spatial distribution of both the amount of strain accumulated for the period before and during the SSEs release using time series data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). In this study, four SSEs were analysed: the Tokai long-term SSE (2000–2005), the Boso-Oki short-term SSE (2007), and the Bungo Channel long-term SSEs (2009–2011 and 2018–2019). As a result, we found strong negative correlations for all four dilatations before and during SSE occurrence. For these dilatations, we estimated the amount of strain released at the time of occurrence of the SSE relative to that accumulated during the period prior to the SSE. The result indicates that not all the accumulated strain before the SSEs was released when the SSEs occurred. Moreover, it is highly likely that the strain released by SSE is not only due to the strain accumulation just below the SSE occurrence region, but also due to the strain accumulation on the shallower plate boundary, which is a seismogenic zone for a future megathrust earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transition from cold forearc to hot arc is considered fundamental to subduction dynamics. However, the range and depth of the cold nose changing significantly along the strike are difficult to constrain. By incorporating the three‐dimensional high‐resolution slab topography and MORVEL plate motion field to constrain thermomechanical modelling, we estimate the subduction thermal state and petrological dehydration in Izu‐Bonin. The multilayered hydrothermal regime gradually transitions from cold to less cold forearc, associated with a large‐scale subduction dewatering process varying along the strike. The dehydration embrittlement resulting from eclogitization and harzburgitization influences the occurrence of fast to slow earthquakes on megathrusts. Impressively, the cold nose is constrained to a depth of 60 km between the arc and Moho‐depth plate interface. The lowered temperature and delay of rock harzburgitization in the cold center of the subducted plate at depth contribute to the occurrence of deep earthquakes below the hot backarc interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several interplate seismic events, such as short-term slow slip events (S-SSEs) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs), have been identified in the Ryukyu Trench, southwestern Japan. As one of the specific characteristics of this seismicity, the depths at which S-SSEs occur at the plate interface beneath Okinawa Island are approximately 5–10 km shallower than those beneath the Yaeyama Islands. To elucidate the cause of this difference in depth, we constructed a three-dimensional, Cartesian thermomechanical subduction model and applied the subduction history of the Philippine Sea (PHS) plate in the model region. As a result, the interplate temperatures at which S-SSEs take place were estimated to range from 350 to 450 °C beneath Okinawa Island and from 500 to 600 °C beneath the Yaeyama Islands. The former temperature range is consistent with previous thermal modelling studies for the occurrence of slow earthquakes, but the latter temperature range is by approximately 150 °C higher than the former. Therefore, explaining how the depth difference in S-SSEs could be caused from the aspect of only the thermal regime is difficult. Using phase diagrams for hydrous minerals in the oceanic crust and mantle wedge, we also estimated the water content distribution on and above the plate interface of the PHS plate. Near the S-SSE fault planes, almost the same amount of dehydration associated with phase transformations of hydrous minerals from blueschist to amphibolite and from amphibolite to amphibole eclogite within the oceanic crust were inferred along Okinawa Island and the Yaeyama Islands, respectively. On the other hand, the phase transformations within the mantle wedge were inferred only beneath the Yaeyama Islands, whereas no specific phase transformation was inferred beneath Okinawa Island around the S-SSE occurrence region. Therefore, we conclude that dehydrated fluid derived from the oceanic crust at the plate interface would play a key role in the occurrence of S-SSEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The catastrophic 2004 Sumatra‐Andaman Mw9.1 earthquake associated with destructive tsunamis has characterized Sumatra as one of the most dangerous convergence zones. Nevertheless, the effects of the thermohydrous state on the strongly coupled megathrust of the incoming plate remain enigmatic. By using a three‐dimensional (3‐D) thermomechanical model to compute the temperature variation and the complicated phase transition process of the water‐bearing descending plate which generates unstable thrust slips, we find that Sumatran earthquakes at varying depths are likely under the control of the inter or intraplate hydrothermal regime, which occurs in or close to the petrological metamorphism transition area. The slab dehydration of the water‐rich mid‐ocean‐ridge basalts (MORB) and the ultramafic rocks in the oceanic lithosphere releases a large amount of fluid to the continental wedge and further facilitates arc magmatism. The fluids are prone to upwelling following the subduction channel along the plate interface and thus contribute to the clustering of earthquakes updip of the dehydration front beneath offshore Sumatra. Brittle failure and dehydration embrittlement at depth, along with the temperature differences caused by variant slab geometry, are conjectured to greatly influence the occurrence of fast and slow earthquakes in Sumatra. Key Points: Sumatran earthquakes are likely under control, and they occur in or close to the area transitioning from petrological metamorphismSlab dehydration of the water‐rich rocks in the oceanic lithosphere release a large amount of fluid to the continental wedgeBrittle failure and dehydration embrittlement have greatly influenced the occurrence of fast to slow earthquakes in Sumatra [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In repeating seismic event sequences within a specialized horizontal area, the moment magnitude is usually scaled with the recurrence interval. In addition to two horizontal dimensions, the vertical dimension plays a certain role in affecting the scaling law. However, whether and how the changing depth influences the scaling law remain enigmatic. Based on a large number of earthquake records with high-resolution epicenter locations in recent decades in Japan, we focus on a comparison between the 3-D seismic moment and seismic interval, which recognize the vertical dimension as the same dimension as the horizontal distances. The results show that (1) the seismic moment scaling law is applicable in the multiparameter 3-D models by visiting the 1.8 million events collected during a period of 15 years; (2) the vertical dimension of depth plays an important role in the Mo–SI relationship as well as in the variance in the 3-D seismic moment–interval magnitudes; and (3) the seismic moment rate, attributable to the plate convergence rate, varies with area and depth in influencing the regional earthquake recurrence frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We performed 2‐D high‐resolution thermomechanical numerical simulations associated with subduction of the Philippine Sea (PHS) plate in central Japan, where a well‐defined gap of low‐frequency earthquakes (LFEs) and tectonic tremors (TTs) is observed. We investigate the complex relationships among megathrust earthquakes, LFEs, TTs, and interplate temperature distributions and dehydrations caused by phase transformations of hydrous mid‐ocean ridge basalt (MORB) of the oceanic crust and ultramafic rock of the slab mantle. Our models predict a temperature range of 480–600 °C corresponding to both active LFEs and TTs regions and their gap region located on the upper surface of the PHS plate. A moderate amount of fluids (<0.8 wt%) is released due to phase transformations of the hydrous MORB near the thermally estimated seismogenic zone on the upper surface of the PHS plate. Hydrous MORB was found to transform from greenschist to epidote amphibole, releasing a small amount of fluids (>0.3 wt%) near the belt‐like form regions of LFEs and TTs. We found that the total amount of dehydrated water near the active region of LFEs and TTs is larger than that near the gap of LFEs and TTs. Our modeling results show that this difference stems from the presence of the phase transformation from epidote amphibole to eclogite in the former, and it may play a significant role for the occurrence of LFEs and TTs. The difference in the amount of released fluid between the active and gap regions of LFEs and TTs may be related to their generation mechanism. Key Points: We performed 2‐D thermal modeling to investigate relations among several seismic events, interplate temperature, and dehydration processIn our model, dehydration gradient near the active region of LFEs and TTs is different from that near the gap region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We extracted tectonic crustal deformation caused by the interplate coupling between the Pacific and North American plates from GNSS time series data at land-based stations in the Tohoku district, northeastern Japan, during the period from 21 March 1996 to 7 March 2011. Next, we estimated the spatiotemporal distributions of the slip deficit rates between the two plates prior to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake for the 1997–2010 period by performing time-dependent inversion analysis. As a result, two strongly coupled regions were identified. One is located off the coast of Iwate Prefecture, whose reliability may not be high, where coseismic slip of the Tohoku-oki earthquake was small, indicating that this area may be a source region for a future megathrust earthquake. The other is a region with strong and continuous interplate coupling of more than 8 cm/yr from 1997 to 2010 in and around the epicenter of the Tohoku-oki earthquake. This area coincides with the area where coseismic slip greater than 20 m was estimated. Decrease of interplate coupling by approximately 0.4 cm/yr was identified at the downdip side of the region during the period from 2003 to 2008, reaching a coupling of 1.5 cm/yr in 2008, which would yield an increase in shear stress at its shallower strongly coupled region. We also identified that in 2010, the strongly coupled region rapidly expanded in southwestern and downdip directions. These results suggest that the shear stressing rate in the strongly coupled region might be accelerated, reaching rupture strength because of these two effects, thereby causing the main shock. • Strong coupled region was identified near the epicenter of the Tohoku-oki earthquake. • Decrease in coupling at the downdip of the coupled region was found before the event. • The coupled region rapidly expanded in southern and downdip directions in 2010. • Another possible coupled region was unruptured by the event, being a possible future large event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To clarify differences in the maximum magnitude of interplate earthquakes offshore of Shikoku (≈ M 8) and in the western adjacent Hyuganada region (≤ M 7.5), southwest Japan, where the oceanic Philippine Sea (PHS) plate subducts beneath the continental Amuria plate along the Nankai Trough, we calculated the temperature distribution for the plate interface using a three-dimensional thermal convection model. We attribute the observed very low heat flow values (less than approximately 45 mW/m2) in the southern part of the Hyuganada region to the subduction of the Kyushu–Palau Ridge, which is presumably older than the adjacent Shikoku Basin to the east. Trial and error methods suggest an age difference of about 20 Myr between these two areas. The heat flow calculated from the temperature distribution fits the observed heat flow in the Hyuganada region well. The results show that Hyuganada earthquakes may take place in the newly proposed “Hyuganada triangle,” bounded by a southeastern isotherm of about 200 °C on the plate interface, a northwestern boundary between the upper surface of the subducting PHS plate and the continental Moho discontinuity, a northern isotherm of about 350 °C, and a northeastern margin-normal zone with a possible barrier or large friction parameter L. Interplate earthquakes in such a limited seismogenic zone may reach a maximum magnitude of M 7.5. Our results also suggest that a seismic gap seaward of the Hyuganada region may be caused by stable sliding arising from low temperature, resulting in a deeper updip limit than that offshore of Shikoku. The seismic gap offshore southwest of southern Kyushu along the Ryukyu Trench may result from the overlapping of two stable sliding regimes on the plate interface: one with low temperature at shallower depths caused by the subduction of the old PHS plate and the other a serpentinized mantle wedge at deeper depths. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Nankai subduction fault in southwest Japan is a plate boundary along which large megathrust earthquakes have repeatedly occurred. A previous 2-D thermal model suggested that the updip and downdip limits of the seismogenic zone are closely related to the temperature of the plate interface. We estimated a new temperature distribution for the plate interface based on a 3-D thermal convection model that incorporates revised governing equations, temporal changes in relative plate motion, the shape of the subducted slab, temperature variations related to basin evolution and more heat flow data and model regions than have been used in previous models. The margin-parallel spatial variation in the temperature of the plate interface was caused by spatio-temporal changes associated with the cooling of the Shikoku Basin. The updip limit of the thermally delineated seismogenic zone (thermal seismogenic zone) was approximately parallel to the trough axis due to a spreading rate that increased with distance from a fossil ridge, although the margin-parallel age dependency of the subducting plate was taken into account. The downdip limit of the thermal seismogenic zone was determined by temperature, except in eastern Kyushu, where it was determined by a boundary between the continental Moho depth and the upper surface of the subducting plate. The maximum coseismic slip associated with the 1944 Tonankai ( M 7.9) and the 1946 Nankai ( M 8.0) earthquakes, and a strongly coupled region estimated from GPS data inversion obtained by previous studies, were both located in the thermal seismogenic zone on the plate interface. Low-frequency earthquakes located at the downdip of the thermal seismogenic zone took place at temperatures of about 400–500 °C. This may be related to the phase transformation of hydrous minerals in oceanic crust from lawsonite + blueschist + jadeite to amphibole + eclogite and the associated decreases in water content of approximately 2.4 wt%. The thermal seismogenic zone is narrowest off the Kii Peninsula, where the hypocentres of the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes were located. The narrow seismogenic zone may have determined the rupture initiation points for these earthquakes, as was previously demonstrated by numerical simulations of the earthquake cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From June 26, 2000, an earthquake swarm started in Miyakejima, about 50 km south off Honshu, central Japan. Eruptions of Miyakejima and five large earthquakes with magnitudes 6.0 and above occurred for the following 2 months together with a large number of smaller earthquakes over 100,000. In this study, we focused on spatio-temporal crustal deformation observed at GPS stations in this area. In order to explain the seismicity and the crustal deformation, we considered a dike intrusion model placed between Miyakejima and Kozushima. Then, we attempted to obtain spatio-temporal distributions, the amount of the dike intrusion, deflation beneath Miyakejima, and fault slips of the seven large events by geodetic data inversion. For this purpose, we divided the time series of GPS data from June 12 to August 27 into 10 periods, which are related to significant events. In order to find location, depth, strike and dip of the dike plane and a depth of deflation beneath Miyakejima, we used the Monte Carlo method and tested 10,000 models for each period. As a result, we estimated that the total amount of the dike intrusion and the deflation beneath Miyakejima reached about 1.1×109 and 5.4×108 m3, respectively. The maximum amount of the dike intrusion and the deflation beneath Miyakejima reached over 3.5×108 m3 during the period from July 20 to July 28, 2000, and over 1.7×108 m3 during the period from June 15 to June 28, 2000, respectively. Temporal change of the amount of the dike intrusion corresponds well to that of the deflation beneath Miyakejima until the middle of July. However, since large amount of the dike intrusion from July 20 to 28 did not correspond to that of the deflation beneath Miyakejima, we deduced that the magma source changed from Miyakejima to Kozushima and the magma might come from sub-crustal magma pockets from the middle of July. If we assume the open crack associated with the dike intrusion and the deflation beneath Miyakejima are filled with magma with a density of 2500 kg/m3, the mass would be about 2.75×109 and 1.35×109 tons, respectively. We deduced that at least 1.4×109 tons of magma came from sub-crustal magma pockets. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We introduced a novel approach to produce a 3D heterogeneous viscosity distribution model of the upper mantle below Northeast Japan. The viscoelastic relaxation constitutes a significant portion of the postseismic deformation associated with a megathrust earthquake. Our viscosity distribution was based on a 3D simulation of thermomechanical modeling with realistic 3D oceanic plate geometry and subduction velocity of the Pacific plate in the upper mantle. After obtaining the thermal and strain-rate distributions obtained from the thermomechanical modeling, 3D viscosity distribution was calculated. We used the resulting viscosity distribution in a viscoelastic relaxation model to calculate the viscoelastic response associated with the M W 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, using a finite element method. We found it necessary to include an elastic cold nose in the mantle wedge and a low-viscosity layer at the subducted lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary to reproduce the observed onshore uplifts and landward horizontal displacements of the seafloor, respectively. We then divided the calculated viscoelastic displacements into 7 one-year intervals and subtracted them from the corresponding observed postseismic displacements to obtain yearly residual displacements. Assuming the residual displacements were the result of afterslip and subduction fault locking on the plate interface, we employed a time-dependent inversion to estimate the spatiotemporal distributions of afterslip and subduction fault locking. Our results showed decrease in the afterslip amount and extent over time, which primarily occurred during the first two years following the 2011 event, which is followed by gradual extension of the subduction fault locking region. We concluded that the plate interface off Northeast Japan is gradually entering an interseismic stage of interplate coupling and elastic strain accumulation within several years after the occurrence of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. [Display omitted] • The viscosity distribution was calculated from thermal structure and strain rate. • Effects of thermal regime and strain rate on viscoelastic response were discussed. • Postseismic displacement fields for various viscosity structures were examined. • A gradual transition to an interseismic phase after the 2011 event was identified. • Preferable temperature- and strain rate-dependent viscosity models were proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]