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Probabilistic seismic hazard models (PSHM) are used for quantifying the seismic hazard at a site or a grid of sites. In this study, a methodology is proposed to compare the distribution of the expected number of sites with exceedance with the observed number considering an acceleration threshold at a set of recording sites. The method is applied to France and Turkey. The French accelerometric database is checked to produce a reliable accelerometric data set. In addition, we also used a synthetic data set inferred from an instrumental catalogue combined with a ground-motion prediction equation. The results show that the MEDD2002 and AFPS2006 PSH models overestimate the number of sites with exceedance for low acceleration levels (below 40 cm s−2) or short return periods (smaller than 50 yr for AFPS2006 and 475 yr for MEDD2002). For larger acceleration levels, there are few observations and none of the models is rejected. In Turkey, the SHARE hazard estimates can be tested against ground-motion levels of interest in earthquake engineering. As the completeness issue is crucial, the recorded data at each station is analysed to detect potential gaps in the recording. As most accelerometric stations are located on soil, accelerations at rock are estimated using a site-amplification model. Different minimum intersite distances and station configurations are considered. The observed numbers of sites with exceedance are well within the bounds of the predicted distribution for accelerations between 103 and 397 cm s−2. For higher levels, both the observed number and the predicted percentile 2.5 are zero, and no conclusion can be drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) are essential in probabilis-tic seismic hazard studies for estimating the ground motions generated by the seismic sources. In low-seismicity regions, only weak motions are available during the life-time of accelerometric networks, and the equations selected for the probabilistic studies are usually models established from foreign data. Although most GMPEs have been developed for magnitudes 5 and above, the minimum magnitude often used in probabilistic studies in low-seismicity regions is smaller. Disaggregations have shown that, at return periods of engineering interest, magnitudes less than 5 may be contri-buting to the hazard. This paper presents the testing of several GMPEs selected in current international and national probabilistic projects against weak motions re-corded in France (191 recordings with source-site distances up to 300 km, 3.8< Mw ≤4.5). The method is based on the log-likelihood value proposed by Scher-baum etal. (2009). The best-fitting models (approximately 2.5 ≤ LLH ≤ 3.5) over the whole frequency range are the Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008), Akkar and Bommer (2010), and Abrahamson and Silva (2008) models. No significant regional variation of ground motions is highlighted, and the magnitude scaling could be the predominant factor in the control of ground-motion amplitudes. Furthermore, we take advantage of a rich Japanese dataset to run tests on randomly selected low-magnitude subsets, and confirm that a dataset of ~190 observations, the same size as the French dataset, is large enough to obtain stable LLH estimates. Additionally we perform the tests against larger magnitudes (5-7) from the Japanese dataset. The ranking of models is partially modified, indicating a magnitude scaling effect for some of the models, and showing that extrapolating testing results obtained from low-magnitude ranges to higher mag-nitude ranges is not straightforward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]