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The GPS-signals recorded as the ionospheric response to the transition of the acoustic waves after a series of the strongest (with magnitude M ≥ 8.2) seaquakes are analyzed. It is shown that the signals may contain information about the energy characteristics of these seismic events. The seismic energy estimates for such events based on the shape of the characteristic perturbation in the ionospheric total electron content (the duration of the compression phase of the shock wave) agree with the estimates inferred from the seismic data and can be obtained within 15 min after the event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard analysis requires knowledge of the recurrence rates of large magnitude earthquakes that drive the hazard at low probabilities of interest for seismic design. Earthquake recurrence is usually determined through studies of the historic earthquake catalogue for a given region. Reliable historic catalogues generally span time periods of 100-200 years in North America, while large magnitude events (M ≥ 7) have recurrence rates on the order of hundreds or thousands of years in many areas, resulting in large uncertainty in recurrence rates for large events. Using Monte Carlo techniques and assuming typical recurrence parameters, we simulate earthquake catalogues that span long periods of time. We then split these catalogues into smaller catalogues spanning 100-200 years that mimic the length of historic catalogues. For each of these simulated 'historic' catalogues, a recurrence rate for large magnitude events is determined. By comparing recurrence rates from one historic-length catalogue to another, we quantify the uncertainty associated with determining recurrence rates from short historic catalogues. The use of simulations to explore the uncertainty (rather than analytical solutions) allows us flexibility to consider issues such as the relative contributions of aleatory versus epistemic uncertainty, and the influence of fitting method, as well as lending insight into extreme-event statistics. The uncertainty in recurrence rates of large (M > 7) events is about a factor of two in regions of high seismicity, due to the shortness of historic catalogues. This uncertainty increases greatly with decreasing seismic activity. Uncertainty is dependent on the length of the catalogue as well as the fitting method used (least squares vs. maximum likelihood). Examination of 90th percentile recurrence rates reveals that epistemic uncertainty in the true parameters may cause recurrence rates determined from historic catalogues to be uncertain by a factor greater than 50. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The M 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent dramatic increase in seismicity in the midwestern United States may be related to increases in deep wastewater injection. Here, we demonstrate that areas with suspected anthropogenic earthquakes are also more susceptible to earthquake-triggering from natural transient stresses generated by the seismic waves of large remote earthquakes. Enhanced triggering susceptibility suggests the presence of critically loaded faults and potentially high fluid pressures. Sensitivity to remote triggering is most clearly seen in sites with a long delay between the start of injection and the onset of seismicity and in regions that went on to host moderate magnitude earthquakes within 6 to 20 months. Triggering in induced seismic zones could therefore be an indicator that fluid injection has brought the fault system to a critical state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY The 1909 April 14 Taiwan earthquake caused significant damage in Taipei. Most of the information on this earthquake available until now is from the written reports on its macro-seismic effects and from seismic station bulletins. In view of the importance of this event for assessing the shaking hazard in the present-day Taipei, we collected historical seismograms and station bulletins of this event and investigated them in conjunction with other seismological data. We compared the observed seismograms with those from recent earthquakes in similar tectonic environments to characterize the 1909 earthquake. Despite the inevitably large uncertainties associated with old data, we conclude that the 1909 Taipei earthquake is a relatively deep (50-100 km) intraplate earthquake that occurred within the subducting Philippine Sea Plate beneath Taipei with an estimated MW of 7 ± 0.3. Some intraplate events elsewhere in the world are enriched in high-frequency energy and the resulting ground motions can be very strong. Thus, despite its relatively large depth and a moderately large magnitude, it would be prudent to review the safety of the existing structures in Taipei against large intraplate earthquakes like the 1909 Taipei earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in observational, laboratory, and modeling techniques open the way to the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with potentially predictive power. To explore that possibility, we developed an integrative and fully dynamic model of the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault. The model succeeds in reproducing a realistic earthquake sequence of irregular moment magnitude (Mw) 6.0 main shocks—including events similar to the ones in 1966 and 2004—and provides an excellent match for the detailed interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic observations collected along this fault during the most recent earthquake cycle. Such calibrated physical models provide new ways to assess seismic hazards and forecast seismicity response to perturbations of natural or anthropogenic origins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study investigates which geological and seismicity covariates are most related to the hazard rate along active faults within mainland Japan. The hazard rate is defined to be the rate of M≥4 earthquakes occurring around the fault. To investigate the relationship between the hazard rate and the covariates we use Cox proportional hazards models. Each model makes use of all available data by including repeat events (large earthquakes) that have occurred along the same fault, and adjusts for the correlation resulting from the recurrent nature of the data. All models show that the recent seismicity rate and length of the fault significantly increase the hazard rate of M≥4 earthquakes. Furthermore, we illustrate how the estimated model can be extended to potentially forecast other periods of interest. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Seismotectonics of the two recent earthquakes, one Mw 6.3 in the Bhutan Himalaya on 21 September 2009 and the other Mw 5.1 in the Assam valley on 19 August 2009, are examined here. The recent seismicity and fault plane solutions of these two felt earthquakes suggest that both the events occurred on the Kopili fault zone, a known active fault zone in the Assam valley, about 300 km long and 50 km wide. The fault zone is transverse to the east-west Himalayan trend, and its intense seismicity indicates that it transgresses into the Himalaya. The geologically mapped curvilinear structure of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) in the Himalaya, where the epicentre of the Bhutan earthquake is located, is possibly caused by the transverse Kopili fault beneath the MCT. This intensely active fault zone may be vulnerable to an impending larger earthquake (M > 7.0) in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) forms the northern boundary of the Anatolian plate and is characterized by a right-lateral strike slip motion. The fault extends between 26° and 40° E longitudes and forms a broad arc roughly parallel to the coast of the Black Sea following a former suture zone. The only visible perturbations to the smooth geometry of the NAF are, at around 34-37°E longitude, two main splay faults named Ezinepazar-Sungurlu Fault and Suluova Fault with several related minor fault segments that bifurcate from the main fault line, possibly due to the convexity of the NAF geometry. These secondary fault structures show remarkable morphological expressions accompanied with elongated basin formations and significant microseismicity. The NAF, together with these splay faults, form a broad wedge-shaped shear zone called Amasya Shear Zone (ASZ) where major growing cities of central Anatolia such as Amasya, Çorum and Tokat are located. These cities, which today have total a population close to 500000 with significant industrial infrastructure, were subject to destructive earthquakes during both historical (such as 1579, 1794 and 1668) and instrumental (such as 1939, 1942a, 1942b, 1943 and 1996) seismic periods. Recent paleoseismological studies revealed the rupture history of NAF in a time span of 2000 years (for a review see Hartleb et al. 2006). However, the historical earthquake database of the study area contains unlocated destructive earthquakes (such as 1579 and 1794 events) which are proposed to be nucleated on the splay faults of the ASZ. This statement reveals that there is an unevaluated seismic hazard potential of the region. In this work, a 6 step procedure is followed for a complete earthquake hazard assessment for the study area: (1) First, the faults of ASZ are mapped in detail with field studies to understand the behavior and segmentation of the major fault systems (SuFS and EzSFS). (2) A detailed catalogue of instrumental seismic activity is prepared to understand the seismicity of the region and to define the local clusters concentrated on the fault segments. (3) Information of historical earthquakes are investigated through the literature and field study in major cities to identify the possible related fault segment, this is accomplished by comparing intensity distributions based on historical data and modeled scenarios. (4) The results of recently published analysis of a local GPS campaign (Yavasoglu et. al., 2009) is used to determine the annual slip rate resolved on the overall shear zone to estimate the earthquake recurrence interval. (5) For each active fault segment, the maximum magnitude of a possible earthquake is calculated with the relations between the rupture length and magnitude (Wells and Coppersmith, 1994). (6) GIS based earthquake scenarios based on attenuation relations (Tüysüz, 2003) are prepared to model the geographic intensity distribution for each calculated earthquake. … [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Seismic hazard is associated with recent and present fault activity in mountain ranges. In the Betic-Rif alpine mountain chain, tectonic activity started in the Cretaceous, and topographic uplift continues since Tortonian times as a consequence of the NW–SE oblique convergence between Africa and Eurasia. The deformation is active and produces seismicity that sometimes has catastrophic consequences. The Al Hoceima earthquake (February 24, 2004), considered one of the largest earthquakes ever recorded instrumentally in the westernmost Mediterranean (M =6.3), caused great damage in the region. Seismological studies agree that the main shock was situated on land, at the limit between the External and Internal Zones of the Rif, at a depth of 10–14 km. The focal mechanism points to a strike-slip solution with a NW–SE oriented P axis, quite similar to those of the significant 1994 earthquake swarm located to the north. The epicenter aftershocks distribution would signal the presence of a N–S oriented sinistral fault, activated by the NW–SE regional compression associated to plate boundary convergence. In this setting, the seismogenic fault ruptures related to these seismic events are expected to have reached the Earth''s surface. However, detailed field work carried out 1 month after the earthquake does not evidence any N–S strike-slip coseismic fault in the epicentral area. The main observed effects were landslides, damages to constructions, and locally open cracks indicating an unexpected NW–SE extension. Scarce N–S faults are normal, the main ones being located several kilometers away from the epicentral area. To explain this apparent contradiction between geological and seismological observations, we propose a decoupled tectonic model with crustal detachments that separate a deep brittle crust from an upper crust undergoing uplift, and the development of large folds and normal faults. This geological setting, common to internal zones of cordilleras, may need to be taken into account in future paleoseismicity studies and in the assessment of seismic hazard. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

There are two models in use today to analyze structural responses when subjected to earthquake ground motions, the Displacement Input Model (DIM) and the Acceleration Input Model (AIM). The time steps used in direct integration methods for these models are analyzed to examine the suitability of DIM. Numerical results are presented and show that the time-step for DIM is about the same as for AIM, and achieves the same accuracy. This is contrary to previous research that reported that there are several sources of numerical errors associated with the direct application of earthquake displacement loading, and a very small time step is required to define the displacement record and to integrate the dynamic equilibrium equation. It is shown in this paper that DIM is as accurate and suitable as, if not more than, AIM for analyzing the response of a structure to uniformly distributed and spatially varying ground motions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new filtering method for the attenuation of ground-roll. The method is based on the application of a bi-dimensional filter for obtaining the time-derivative of the seismograms. Before convolving the filter with the input data matrix, the normal moveout correction is applied to the seismograms with the purpose of flattening the reflections. The method can locally attenuate the amplitude of data of low frequency (in the ground-roll and stretch normal moveout region) and enhance flat events (reflections). The filtered seismograms can reveal horizontal or sub-horizontal reflections while vertical or sub-vertical events, associated with ground-roll, are attenuated. A regular set of samples around each neighbourhood data sample of the seismogram is used to estimate the time-derivative. A numerical approximation of the derivative is computed by taking the difference between the interpolated values calculated in both the positive and the negative neighbourhood of the desired position. The coefficients of the 2D time-derivative filter are obtained by taking the difference between two filters that interpolate at positive and negative times. Numerical results that use real seismic data show that the proposed method is effective and can reveal reflections masked by the ground-roll. Another benefit of the method is that the stretch mute, normally applied after the normal moveout correction, is unnecessary. The new filtering approach provides results of outstanding quality when compared to results obtained from the conventional FK filtering method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current practice uses predictive models to extrapolate long-period response spectra based on far-field recordings in moderate and weak earthquakes. However, the spectra are not long enough and the data are often not reliable, which means that the seismic design code cannot accurately define seismic design requirements for long-period structures. The near-field recordings in the main-shock of the Chi-Chi earthquake have a large signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), which makes them suitable for studying the long-period acceleration response spectrum up to 20 sec. The acceleration response spectra from 246 stations within 120 km of the causative fault are statistically analyzed in this paper. The influence of distance and site conditions on long-period response spectrum is discussed, and the shapes of the amplification spectra are compared with the standard spectra specified in the seismic design code of China. Finally, suggestions for future revisions to the code are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard estimations are compared using two approaches based on two different seismicity models: one which models earthquake recurrence by applying the truncated Gutenberg-Richter law and a second one which smoothes the epicentre location of past events according to the fractal distribution of earthquakes in space ( Woo 1996 ). The first method requires the definition of homogeneous source zones and the determination of maximum possible magnitudes whereas the second method requires the definition of a smoothing function. Our results show that the two approaches lead to similar hazard estimates in low seismicity regions. In regions of increased seismic activity, on the other hand, the smoothing approach yields systematically lower estimates than the zoning method. This epicentre-smoothing approach can thus be considered as a lower bound estimator for seismic hazard and can help in decision making in moderate seismicity regions where source zone definition and estimation of maximum possible magnitudes can lead to a wide variety of estimates due to lack of knowledge. The two approaches lead, however, to very different earthquake scenarios. Disaggregation studies at a representative number of sites show that if the distributions of contributions according to source–site distance are comparable between the two approaches, the distributions of contributions according to magnitude differ, reflecting the very different seismicity models used. The epicentre-smoothing method leads to scenarios with predominantly intermediate magnitudes events (5 ≤ M≤ 5.5) while the zoning method leads to scenarios with magnitudes that increase with the return period from the minimum to the maximum magnitudes considered. These trends demonstrate that the seismicity model used plays a fundamental role in the determination of the controlling scenarios and ways to discriminate between the most appropriate models remains an important issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses how research facilitating the increased understanding of slow earthquakes may provide a more complete understanding of the processes associated with ordinary earthquakes. The term slow earthquake encompasses a number of phenomena, including slow-slip events and very-low-frequency earthquakes. Slow earthquakes are typically accompanied by deep tremor and occur as shear slip events of tectonic plates. These tremors can be sensitive to small variations in geophysical stress, as they have been triggered by lunar tides. Monitoring of tremor phenomena via seismic stations is discussed, and peculiarities associated with the San Andreas Fault are elucidated.

The article reports on a study which analyzes the aerial photograph of the Mw 7.6 Kashmir earthquake that struck northern Pakistan on October 8, 2005. The authors of the study note that the rupture broke through the surface. The displacement was evident in Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer images of the region that were taken a week after the event. The rupture surface was confined to a strip a few hundred meters wide in which horizontal slip along the faults measured ∼4 m on average. The authors point out that because of the shallow compact of the earthquake, it can cause intense but localized destruction.