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In this paper, we tackle the problem of the intensity attenuation at Ischia, a critical parameter in a high seismic risk area such as this volcanic island. Starting from the new revised catalogue of local earthquakes, we select a dataset of 118 macroseismic observations related to the four main historical events and analyse the characteristics of the intensity attenuation according to both the deterministic and probabilistic approaches, under the assumption of a point seismic source and isotropic decay (circular spreading). In the deterministic analysis, we derive the attenuation law through an empirical model fitting the average values of ΔI (the difference between epicentral intensity I0 and intensities observed at a site IS) versus the epicentral distances by the least-square method. In the probabilistic approach, the distribution of IS conditioned on the epicentre-site distance is given through a binomial-beta model for each class of I0. In the Bayesian framework, the model parameter p is considered as a random variable to which we assign a Beta probability distribution on the basis of our prior belief derived from investigations on the attenuation in Italy. The mode of the binomial distribution is taken as the intensity expected at that site (Iexp). The entire calculation procedure has been implemented in a python plugin for QGIS® software that, given location and I0 (or magnitude) of the earthquake to be simulated, generates a probabilistic seismic scenario according to the deterministic or probabilistic models of attenuation. This tool may be applied in seismic risk analyses at a local scale or in the seismic surveillance to produce real-time intensity shake-maps for this volcanic area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project, a seismic hazard assessment has been undertaken in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna as a first step in studies aimed at evaluating the risk on an urban scale. The analysis has been carried out with the SASHA code which uses macroseismic data in order to calculate, starting from the site seismic history, the maximum intensity value expected in a given site with a probability of exceedance of 10 % (I), for a fixed exposure time. Depending on the aims of the project, hazard is estimated for local volcano-tectonic seismicity and short exposure times (10 and 30 years), without taking into account the contribution of 'regional' events characterized by much longer recurrence times. Results from tasks A, B and D of the project have produced an updated macroseismic dataset, better performing attenuation models and new tools for SASHA, respectively. The maps obtained indicate that the eastern flank of Etna, the most urbanized sector of the volcano, is characterized by a high level of hazard with I values up to degree VIII EMS, and even IX EMS locally. The disaggregated data analysis allows recognizing the 'design earthquake' and the seismogenic fault which most contribute to the hazard at a site-scale. The latter analysis is the starting point to select the scenario earthquake to be used in the analyses of tasks C and F of the project dealing with, respectively, synthetic ground motion simulations and the evaluation of the Disruption Index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake. The tool used is based on the Disruption Index as a concept implemented in Simulator QuakeIST, which defines urban disruption following a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is computation of seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the area considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organise the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., building stock, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is identification and evaluation of the impact on a target community through the physical elements that most contribute to severe disruption. The procedure applied in this study (i.e., software and data) constitutes a very useful operational tool to drive the development of strategies to minimise risks from earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this work, we tackle the problem of seismic hazard at Etna deriving from the recurrent seismogenic activity of local faults, by adopting two independent methods based on probabilistic approaches. We assess the hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity and represent the occurrence probability calculated for different exposure times both on maps and at fault scale. Seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the “site approach” through the SASHA code and a new probabilistic attenuation model, indicate the eastern flank of the volcano as the most hazardous, with expected intensity (I exp) in 50years (i.e. the standard exposure time adopted in the seismic regulations) ranging from degrees IX to X EMS. In shorter exposure periods (20, 10, 5years), values of I exp up to IX are also reached in the same area, but they are clearly determined by the earthquakes generated by the Timpe fault system. In order to quantify the contribution of local seismogenic sources to the hazard of the region, we reconstruct the seismic history of each fault and calculate with SASHA the probability that earthquakes of a given intensity may be generated in different exposure times. Results confirm the high level of hazard due to the S. Tecla, Moscarello and Fiandaca faults especially for earthquakes of moderate intensity, i.e. VI≤ I 0 ≤VII, with probabilities respectively exceeding 50% and 20% in 10years, and 30% and 10% in 5years. Occurrence probability of major events (I 0 ≥VIII) at the fault scale has also been investigated by statistics on intertimes. Under stationary assumptions we obtain a probability of 6.8% in 5years for each structure; by introducing the time-dependency (time elapsed since the last event occurred on each fault) through a BPT model, we identify the Moscarello and S. Tecla faults as the most probable sources to be activated in the next 5years (2013–2017). This result may represent a useful indication to establish priority criteria for actions aimed at reducing seismic risk at a local scale. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We investigated the seismic potential of a given set of faults in the Etna region, by analysing the inter-event times of major earthquakes as given by the earthquake catalogue. Among the active structures of the volcano, the Timpe fault system in the eastern flank is responsible for the largest earthquakes occurred in historical times, with long-term behaviour characterised by earthquake mean recurrence times of ∼ 20 years for severe/destructive events (epicentral intensity I0 ≥ VIII EMS). By means of coseismic effect analyses and thanks to the peculiarity of the earthquake source in this volcanic district, we associated the seismic events to the individual seismogenic sources, obtaining the seismic history of each fault. Mean recurrence time of major events referred to a specific fault can therefore be defined. Then, we calculated the probabilities of occurrence of destructive events both with Poisson and Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models. A time-dependent BPT distribution function has been used to calculate the conditional occurrence probability for each structure of the Timpe seismogenic zone. In a memoryless perspective, the probability of having a major earthquake on individual faults is about 7% in 5 years, while it changes from fault to fault if the probability is conditioned to the time elapsed since the last event. As a result, impending earthquakes are expected on the S. Tecla fault (11%), and on the Moscarello and Fiandaca faults (∼ 6-9%), all involved in the complex dynamics of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. These results are consistent with those obtained independently through the site approach, calculated by the SASHA code. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study aimed at evaluating earthquake damage scenarios and seismic hazard of Messina using historical data, is presented. The analysis of coeval reports allowed us to reconstruct the seismic history of the city and to obtain a homogeneous earthquake site catalogue based on intensity assessed by the European Macroseismic Scale 1998. In the last 1200 years Messina was destroyed once (1908, intensity X-XI EMS) and suffered effects estimated between intensities VII and IX EMS many times (e.g. 853, 1169, 1494, 1509, 1599, 1693, 1783, 1894, 1909). Destruction or severe damage which affected the city are mainly related to earthquakes occurring in the Messina Straits and Southern Calabria, while slighter, moderate effects are usually due to shocks taking place in the seismogenic sources of SE Sicily, Gulf of Patti and Northern Calabria. The damage scenarios of the most relevant events, delineated using coeval urban plans of the city, showed that damage distribution is strongly conditioned by the different soil response. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was obtained by using site observed intensities: The expected intensity in a time span of 50 years (i.e. maximum intensity characterised by at least 10% exceedance probability in 50 years) is IX EMS; the expected intensity in a time span of 300 years (10% exceedance probability in 300 years) is X EMS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In active volcanic zones, fault dynamics is considerably fast but it is often difficult to separate the pattern of nearly continuous large-scale volcanic processes (inflation/deflation processes, flank instability) from impulsive episodes such as dyke intrusions or coseismic fault displacements. At Etna, multidisciplinary studies on active faults whose activity does not strictly depend on volcanic processes, are relatively few. Here we present the case-study of the San Leonardello fault, an active structure located in the eastern flank of Mt. Etna characterised by a well-known seismic history. This fault saw renewed activity in May 2009, when pre-seismic creeping along the southern segment preceded an M W 4.0 earthquake in the northern segment, followed by some twenty-five aftershocks. Later, in March–April 2016, creep events reactivated the southern section of the same fault. Both the seismic and aseismic phenomena were recorded by the seismic and GNSS networks of INGV-Osservatorio Etneo, and produced surface faulting that left a footprint in the pattern of ground deformation detected by the InSAR measurements. We demonstrate that the integration of multidisciplinary data collected for volcano surveillance may shed light on different aspects of fault dynamics, and allow understanding how coseismic slip and creep alternate in space and time along the strike. Moreover, we use findings from our independent datasets to propose a conceptual model of the San Leonardello fault, taking into account behaviour and previous constraints from fault-based seismic hazard analyses. Although the faulting mechanisms described here occur at a very small scale compared with those of a purely tectonic setting, this case-study may represent a perfect natural lab for improving knowledge of seismogenic processes, also in other fault zones characterised by stick slip vs. stable-sliding fault behaviour. • Faults display stick-slip and stable-sliding behaviour at Etna. • Earthquake-related slip and aseismic creep affect different fault segments. • Segments are separated by a barrier hampering earthquake ruptures to propagate. • Observed fault displacements mimic the long-term process of fault growth. • Length of the seismogenic segment is consistent with maximum expected magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]