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Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of 'Drought-Net', a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites - a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences.

We review results from field experiments that simulate drought, an ecologically impactful global change threat that is predicted to increase in magnitude, extent, duration and frequency. Our goal is to address, from primarily an ecosystem perspective, the questions 'What have we learned from drought experiments?' and 'Where do we go from here?'.Drought experiments are among the most numerous climate change manipulations and have been deployed across a wide range of biomes, although most are conducted in short‐statured, water‐limited ecosystems. Collectively, these experiments have enabled ecologists to quantify the negative responses to drought that occur for most aspects of ecosystem structure and function. Multiple meta‐analyses of responses have also enabled comparisons of relative effect sizes of drought across hundreds of sites, particularly for carbon cycle metrics. Overall, drought experiments have provided strong evidence that ecosystem sensitivity to drought increases with aridity, but that plant traits associated with aridity are not necessarily predictive of drought resistance. There is also intriguing evidence that as drought magnitude or duration increases to extreme levels, plant strategies may shift from drought tolerance to drought escape/avoidance.We highlight three areas where more drought experiments are needed to advance our understanding. First, because drought is intensifying in multiple ways, experiments are needed that address alterations in drought magnitude versus duration, timing and/or frequency (individually and interactively). Second, drivers of drought may be shifting—from precipitation deficits to rising atmospheric demand for water—and disentangling how ecosystems respond to changes in hydrological 'supply versus demand' is critical for understanding drought impacts in the future. Finally, more attention should be focussed on post‐drought recovery periods since legacies of drought can affect ecosystem functioning much longer than the drought itself.We conclude with a call for a fundamental shift in the focus of drought experiments from those designed primarily as 'response experiments', quantifying the magnitude of change in ecosystem structure and function, to more 'mechanistic experiments'—those that explicitly manipulate ecological processes or attributes thought to underpin drought responses. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the frequency and severity of drought increase in many regions around the globe, quantification of key drought tolerance traits and the intraspecific variability of these traits will improve predictions of the vulnerability of a species to novel drought conditions. The objective of this study was to quantify the variability in drought tolerance traits and correlate this to the sensitivity of plant growth to different soil moisture levels across populations of Bouteloua gracilis. Fourteen populations of B. gracilis were sampled along one local elevation‐aridity gradient in northern Colorado and one latitude‐aridity gradient from South Dakota to New Mexico. Individuals from each population were clonally propagated and subjected to high and low soil moisture treatments in a greenhouse and were measured for gas exchange, midday water potential (Ψmid), osmotic potential (Ψosm), biomass production, and morphological traits. Under water‐abundant conditions, plants from the most arid region produced more total biomass (67%) than plants from the most mesic system, yet experienced the greatest sensitivity (−34%) when subjected to water limitation. Productivity was strongly and negatively correlated with the magnitude of osmotic investment across all populations: each megapascal of osmotic potential was correlated with a decrease of 2.3 g of biomass under water‐limited conditions. Gas‐exchange and leaf morphological measurements did not explain these patterns. Unlike plants from the mesic regions, plants from the most arid regions did not adjust Ψosm. This lack of plasticity may be a local adaptation and the likely source of increased sensitivity in these populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Drought is intensifying globally with climate change, creating an urgency to understand ecosystem response to drought both during and after these events end to limit loss of ecosystem functioning. The literature is replete with studies of how ecosystems respond during drought, yet there are far fewer studies focused on ecosystem dynamics after drought ends. Furthermore, while the terms used to describe drought can be variable and inconsistent, so can those that describe ecosystem responses following drought. With this review, we sought to evaluate and create clear definitions of the terms that ecologists use to describe post‐drought responses. We found that legacy effects, resilience and recovery were used most commonly with respect to post‐drought ecosystem responses, but the definitions used to describe these terms were variable. Based on our review of the literature, we propose a framework for generalizing ecosystem responses after drought ends, which we refer to as 'the post‐drought period'. We suggest that future papers need to clearly describe characteristics of the imposed drought, and we encourage authors to use the term post‐drought period as a general term that encompasses responses after drought ends and use other terms as more specific descriptors of responses during the post‐drought period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought, defined as a marked deficiency of precipitation relative to normal, occurs as periods of below-average precipitation or complete failure of precipitation inputs, and can be limited to a single season or prolonged over multiple years. Grasslands are typically quite sensitive to drought, but there can be substantial variability in the magnitude of loss of ecosystem function. We hypothesized that differences in how drought occurs may contribute to this variability. In four native Great Plains grasslands (three C4- and one C3-dominated) spanning a ~ 500-mm precipitation gradient, we imposed drought for four consecutive years by (1) reducing each rainfall event by 66% during the growing season (chronic drought) or (2) completely excluding rainfall during a shorter portion of the growing season (intense drought). The drought treatments were similar in magnitude but differed in the following characteristics: event number, event size and length of dry periods. We observed consistent drought-induced reductions (28–37%) in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) only in the C4-dominated grasslands. In general, intense drought reduced ANPP more than chronic drought, with little evidence that drought duration altered this pattern. Conversely, belowground net primary production (BNPP) was reduced by drought in all grasslands (32–64%), with BNPP reductions greater in intense vs. chronic drought treatments in the most mesic grassland. We conclude that grassland productivity responses to drought did not strongly differ between these two types of drought, but when differences existed, intense drought consistently reduced function more than chronic drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme drought decreases aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in most grasslands, but the magnitude of ANPP reductions varies especially in C3‐dominated grasslands. Because the mechanisms underlying such differential ecosystem responses to drought are not well resolved, we experimentally imposed an extreme 4‐yr drought (2015–2018) in two C3 grasslands that differed in aridity. These sites had similar annual precipitation and dominant grass species (Leymus chinensis) but different annual temperatures and thus water availability. Drought treatments differentially affected these two semiarid grasslands, with ANPP of the drier site reduced more than at the wetter site. Structural equation modeling revealed that community‐weighted means for some traits modified relationships between soil moisture and ANPP, often due to intraspecific variation. Specifically, drought reduced community mean plant height at both sites, resulting in a reduction in ANPP beyond that attributable to reduced soil moisture alone. Higher community mean leaf carbon content enhanced the negative effects of drought on ANPP at the drier site, and ANPP–soil‐moisture relationships were influenced by soil C:N ratio at the wetter site. Importantly, neither species richness nor functional dispersion were significantly correlated with ANPP at either site. Overall, as expected, soil moisture was a dominant, direct driver of ANPP response to drought, but differential sensitivity to drought in these two grasslands was also related to soil fertility and plant traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In terrestrial ecosystems, climate change forecasts of increased frequencies and magnitudes of wet and dry precipitation anomalies are expected to shift precipitation–net primary productivity (PPT–NPP) relationships from linear to nonlinear. Less understood, however, is how future changes in the duration of PPT anomalies will alter PPT–NPP relationships. A review of the literature shows strong potential for the duration of wet and dry PPT anomalies to impact NPP and to interact with the magnitude of anomalies. Within semi‐arid and mesic grassland ecosystems, PPT gradient experiments indicate that short‐duration (1 year) PPT anomalies are often insufficient to drive nonlinear aboveground NPP responses. But long‐term studies, within desert to forest ecosystems, demonstrate how multi‐year PPT anomalies may result in increasing impacts on NPP through time, and thus alter PPT–NPP relationships. We present a conceptual model detailing how NPP responses to PPT anomalies may amplify with the duration of an event, how responses may vary in xeric vs. mesic ecosystems, and how these differences are most likely due to demographic mechanisms. Experiments that can unravel the independent and interactive impacts of the magnitude and duration of wet and dry PPT anomalies are needed, with multi‐site long‐term PPT gradient experiments particularly well‐suited for this task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing intensification of the hydrological cycle is altering rainfall regimes by increasing the frequency of extreme wet and dry years and the size of individual rainfall events. Despite long‐standing recognition of the importance of precipitation amount and variability for most terrestrial ecosystem processes, we lack understanding of their interactive effects on ecosystem functioning. We quantified this interaction in native grassland by experimentally eliminating temporal variability in growing season rainfall over a wide range of precipitation amounts, from extreme wet to dry conditions. We contrasted the rain use efficiency (RUE) of above‐ground net primary productivity (ANPP) under conditions of experimentally reduced versus naturally high rainfall variability using a 32‐year precipitation–ANPP dataset from the same site as our experiment. We found that increased growing season rainfall variability can reduce RUE and thus ecosystem functioning by as much as 42% during dry years, but that such impacts weaken as years become wetter. During low precipitation years, RUE is lowest when rainfall event sizes are relatively large, and when a larger proportion of total rainfall is derived from large events. Thus, a shift towards precipitation regimes dominated by fewer but larger rainfall events, already documented over much of the globe, can be expected to reduce the functioning of mesic ecosystems primarily during drought, when ecosystem processes are already compromised by low water availability.Climate change is expected to increase the variability of precipitation, with uncertain consequences for ecosystem functioning. We experimentally removed variability in growing season rainfall patterns across a large gradient of total precipitation amounts in native grassland. On comparing levels of primary productivity with the removal of rainfall variability to productivity under naturally high rainfall variability using long‐term observational data, we discover that rainfall variability reduces ecosystem functioning primarily during dry conditions, and that the mechanism underpinning this is the presence of large rainfall events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought, widely studied as an important driver of ecosystem dynamics, is predicted to increase in frequency and severity globally. To study drought, ecologists must define or at least operationalize what constitutes a drought. How this is accomplished in practice is unclear, particularly given that climatologists have long struggled to agree on definitions of drought, beyond general variants of "an abnormal deficiency of water." We conducted a literature review of ecological drought studies (564 papers) to assess how ecologists describe and study drought. We found that ecologists characterize drought in a wide variety of ways (reduced precipitation, low soil moisture, reduced streamflow, etc.), but relatively few publications (~32%) explicitly define what are, and are not, drought conditions. More troubling, a surprising number of papers (~30%) simply equated "dry conditions" with "drought" and provided little characterization of the drought conditions studied. For a subset of these, we calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values for the reported drought periods. We found that while almost 90% of the studies were conducted under conditions quantifiable as slightly to extremely drier than average, ~50% were within the range of normal climatic variability. We conclude that the current state of the ecological drought literature hinders synthesis and our ability to draw broad ecological inferences because drought is often declared but is not explicitly defined or well characterized. We suggest that future drought publications provide at least one of the following: (a) the climatic context of the drought period based on long‐term records; (b) standardized climatic index values; (c) published metrics from drought‐monitoring organizations; (d) a quantitative definition of what the authors consider to be drought conditions for their system. With more detailed and consistent quantification of drought conditions, comparisons among studies can be more rigorous, increasing our understanding of the ecological effects of drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant traits can provide unique insights into plant performance at the community scale. Functional composition, defined by both functional diversity and community‐weighted trait means (CWMs), can affect the stability of above‐ground net primary production (ANPP) in response to climate extremes. Further complexity arises, however, when functional composition itself responds to environmental change. The duration of climate extremes, such as drought, is expected to increase with rising global temperatures; thus, understanding the impacts of long‐term drought on functional composition and the corresponding effect that has on ecosystem function could improve predictions of ecosystem sensitivity to climate change.We experimentally reduced growing season precipitation by 66% across six temperate grasslands for 4 years and measured changes in three indices of functional diversity (functional dispersion, richness and evenness), community‐weighted trait means and phylogenetic diversity (PD). Specific leaf area (SLA), leaf nitrogen content (LNC) and (at most sites) leaf turgor loss point (πTLP) were measured for species cumulatively representing ~90% plant cover at each site.Long‐term drought led to increased community functional dispersion in three sites, with negligible effects on the remaining sites. Species re‐ordering following the mortality/senescence of dominant species was the main driver of increased functional dispersion. The response of functional diversity was not consistently matched by changes in phylogenetic diversity. Community‐level drought strategies (assessed as CWMs) largely shifted from drought tolerance to drought avoidance and/or escape strategies, as evidenced by higher community‐weighted πTLP, SLA and LNC. Lastly, ecosystem drought sensitivity (i.e. relative reduction in ANPP in drought plots) was positively correlated with community‐weighted SLA and negatively correlated with functional diversity.Synthesis. Increased functional diversity following long‐term drought may stabilize ecosystem functioning in response to future drought. However, shifts in community‐scale drought strategies may increase ecosystem drought sensitivity, depending on the nature and timing of drought. Thus, our results highlight the importance of considering both functional diversity and abundance‐weighted traits means of plant communities as their collective effect may either stabilize or enhance ecosystem sensitivity to drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ContentsSummary52I.Introduction52II.The Community Response to Extreme Drought (CRED) framework55III.Post‐drought rewetting rates: system and community recovery61IV.Site‐specific characteristics influencing community resistance and resilience63V.Conclusions64Acknowledgements65References66 Summary: As climate changes, many regions of the world are projected to experience more intense droughts, which can drive changes in plant community composition through a variety of mechanisms. During drought, community composition can respond directly to resource limitation, but biotic interactions modify the availability of these resources. Here, we develop the Community Response to Extreme Drought framework (CRED), which organizes the temporal progression of mechanisms and plant–plant interactions that may lead to community changes during and after a drought. The CRED framework applies some principles of the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH), which proposes that the balance between competition and facilitation changes with increasing stress. The CRED framework suggests that net biotic interactions (NBI), the relative frequency and intensity of facilitative (+) and competitive (−) interactions between plants, will change temporally, becoming more positive under increasing drought stress and more negative as drought stress decreases. Furthermore, we suggest that rewetting rates affect the rate of resource amelioration, specifically water and nitrogen, altering productivity responses and the intensity and importance of NBI, all of which will influence drought‐induced compositional changes. System‐specific variables and the intensity of drought influence the strength of these interactions, and ultimately the system's resistance and resilience to drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought impacts to plant growth can be indicated by changes in key functional traits. However, previous research has focused on aboveground trait responses to precipitation deficits, with less emphasis on concomitant belowground impacts and deep soil drought from groundwater depletion. We assessed changes in a suite of aboveground and belowground traits of a dominant plant, Phragmites communis, in response to an experimental gradient of underground watertable depth. Our study occurred within the northeastern Inner Mongolia region, where changes to groundwater tables have been pervasive in recent years. In general, the results indicate that both aboveground and belowground traits responded positively, yet eventually negatively, to continual increases in watertable depth, indicative of reduced access to soil moisture as watertable depths increased. Key adjustments include changes to the ratio of coarse roots to fine roots, and the distribution of fine roots within the soil profile. These changes in belowground traits had strong correlations with changes in aboveground traits. In particular, specific root length of fine roots was positively correlated with leaf area, height, and aboveground biomass, whereas root biomass was linked to leaf area, specific root length of coarse roots, and root length density. Fine and coarse root production also had positive and negative relationships with aboveground biomass, respectively, suggestive of biomass allocation tradeoffs. We suggest that biomass production responses of this species to changes in watertable depths may largely be driven by interactions between the distribution of fine and coarse roots in the soil profile and changes to leaf area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The effects of short‐term drought on soil microbial communities remain largely unexplored, particularly at large scales and under field conditions. We used seven experimental sites from two continents (North America and Australia) to evaluate the impacts of imposed extreme drought on the abundance, community composition, richness, and function of soil bacterial and fungal communities. The sites encompassed different grassland ecosystems spanning a wide range of climatic and soil properties. Drought significantly altered the community composition of soil bacteria and, to a lesser extent, fungi in grasslands from two continents. The magnitude of the fungal community change was directly proportional to the precipitation gradient. This greater fungal sensitivity to drought at more mesic sites contrasts with the generally observed pattern of greater drought sensitivity of plant communities in more arid grasslands, suggesting that plant and microbial communities may respond differently along precipitation gradients. Actinobateria, and Chloroflexi, bacterial phyla typically dominant in dry environments, increased their relative abundance in response to drought, whereas Glomeromycetes, a fungal class regarded as widely symbiotic, decreased in relative abundance. The response of Chlamydiae and Tenericutes, two phyla of mostly pathogenic species, decreased and increased along the precipitation gradient, respectively. Soil enzyme activity consistently increased under drought, a response that was attributed to drought‐induced changes in microbial community structure rather than to changes in abundance and diversity. Our results provide evidence that drought has a widespread effect on the assembly of microbial communities, one of the major drivers of soil function in terrestrial ecosystems. Such responses may have important implications for the provision of key ecosystem services, including nutrient cycling, and may result in the weakening of plant–microbial interactions and a greater incidence of certain soil‐borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extremes in climate, such as heat waves and drought, are expected to become more frequent and intense with forecasted climate change. Plant species will almost certainly differ in their responses to these stressors. We experimentally imposed a heat wave and drought in the tallgrass prairie ecosystem near Manhattan, Kansas, USA to assess transcriptional responses of two ecologically important C4 grass species, Andropogon gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans. Based on previous research, we expected that S. nutans would regulate more genes, particularly those related to stress response, under high heat and drought. Across all treatments, S. nutans showed greater expression of negative regulatory and catabolism genes while A. gerardii upregulated cellular and protein metabolism. As predicted, S. nutans showed greater sensitivity to water stress, particularly with downregulation of non-coding RNAs and upregulation of water stress and catabolism genes. A. gerardii was less sensitive to drought, although A. gerardii tended to respond with upregulation in response to drought versus S. nutans which downregulated more genes under drier conditions. Surprisingly, A. gerardii only showed minimal gene expression response to increased temperature, while S. nutans showed no response. Gene functional annotation suggested that these two species may respond to stress via different mechanisms. Specifically, A. gerardii tends to maintain molecular function while S. nutans prioritizes avoidance. Sorghastrum nutans may strategize abscisic acid response and catabolism to respond rapidly to stress. These results have important implications for success of these two important grass species under a more variable and extreme climate forecast for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flower production can comprise up to 70% of above-ground primary production in grasslands. Yet we know relatively little about how the environment and timing of rainfall determine flower productivity. Evidence suggests that deficits or additions of rainfall during phenlologically relevant periods (i.e. growth, storage, initiation of flowering and reproduction) can determine flower production in grasslands., We used long-term data from the Konza Prairie LTER to test how fire, soil topography and precipitation amounts during four phenologically relevant periods of the growing season constrain three aspects of flowering in three dominant C4 grass species. Specifically, we examined the probability of flowering, flowering stalk density and individual flowering stalk biomass for Andropogon gerardii, Schizachyrium scoparium and Sorghastrum nutans., We found that each of the three species responded to the amount of precipitation during phenologically relevant periods in unique ways. All aspects of A. gerardii flowering were sensitive to precipitation during the flowering stalk elongation period (20 June - 3 August). The probability of S. nutans flowering was partly determined by precipitation during the rapid growth phase (21 April - 4 June), whereas flowering stalk density of this species depended on rainfall during flowering stalk elongation (20 June - 3 August). In contrast, all aspects of flowering of S. scoparium were relatively independent of rainfall during any period., Our results demonstrate that three functionally similar, co-dominant C4 grass species respond differently to phenologically relevant precipitation periods. As a result, drought during any phenological window during the growing season can adversely impact biomass and flowering production of grasslands via species-specific reductions in flowering stalk density and biomass., A is available for this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contents41I.41II.42III.43IV.44V.45Acknowledgements46References46 Summary: Precipitation (PPT) is a primary climatic determinant of plant growth and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) over much of the globe. Thus, PPT–ANPP relationships are important both ecologically and to land–atmosphere models that couple terrestrial vegetation to the global carbon cycle. Empirical PPT–ANPP relationships derived from long‐term site‐based data are almost always portrayed as linear, but recent evidence has accumulated that is inconsistent with an underlying linear relationship. We review, and then reconcile, these inconsistencies with a nonlinear model that incorporates observed asymmetries in PPT–ANPP relationships. Although data are currently lacking for parameterization, this new model highlights research needs that, when met, will improve our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics, as well as forecasts of ecosystem responses to climate change. See also the Commentary on this article by Luo et al., 214: 5–7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. World-wide, climate change is altering precipitation amounts, variability and extremes ( e.g. droughts), and these changes are altering ecosystem structure and function. Precipitation manipulation experiments in terrestrial ecosystems around the world have identified many consequences of altered precipitation regimes, but a lack of standardized protocols has complicated attempts to synthesize results from these studies. Thus, there is a clear need to identify standard, ecologically relevant treatments that can be more easily compared across systems. Tools that facilitate comparisons of precipitation statistics across sites would allow researchers to (1) optimize treatments for multi-site precipitation studies and (2) place past and current experiments in the context of historical precipitation patterns. 2. To address these needs, we created the Terrestrial Precipitation Analysis package. This package is comprised of the Precipitation Trends ( P-Trend), Precipitation Attributes ( P-Att) and Precipitation Manipulation ( P-Man) tools. Combined, these web tools allow researchers to easily calculate fundamental precipitation statistics for past, present and projected future precipitation regimes for any terrestrial location in the world. 3. The P-Trend tool allows researchers to visualize and download long-term precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and drought index records derived from a global gridded data set for any study location. The P-Att tool allows researchers to characterize the general precipitation regime (including extreme events) at any study site and obtain estimates of precipitation under a severe climate change scenario. The P-Man tool calculates the proportional change in precipitation required to achieve any level of precipitation extremity based on either long-term interpolated data or user-provided long-term, site-based precipitation records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why some species are consistently more abundant than others, and predicting how species will respond to global change, are fundamental questions in ecology. Long-term observations indicate that plant species with high stoichiometric homeostasis for nitrogen (HN), i.e., the ability to decouple foliar N levels from variation in soil N availability, were more common and stable through time than low-HN species in a central U.S. grassland. However, with nine years of nitrogen addition, species with high HN decreased in abundance, while those with low HN increased in abundance. In contrast, in climate change experiments simulating a range of forecast hydrologic changes, e.g., extreme drought (two years), increased rainfall variability (14 years), and chronic increases in rainfall (21 years), plant species with the highest HN were least responsive to changes in soil water availability. These results suggest that HN may be predictive of plant species success and stability, and how plant species and ecosystems will respond to global-change-driven alterations in resource availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grazing and fire are disturbances integral to the evolution and maintenance of savanna grasslands. Humans are altering or completely eliminating these disturbance regimes at a global scale, with important consequences for savanna ecosystem structure and function. It is unknown whether the alteration of these disturbance regimes will have similar effects on grass communities of savanna grasslands in different geographic regions that vary in their biogeographic and evolutionary histories, as well as in the diversity of extant grazers., Here, we examined the effects of large herbivore loss on different aspects of grass community structure - taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional - across a range of fire frequencies in C4-dominated mesic savanna grassland sites of North America (Konza Prairie Biological Station, Kansas, USA) and South Africa (Kruger National Park). The goal of the study was to determine whether the loss of large herbivores exerted a consistent effect on the grass communities of two physiognomically similar grasslands with different biogeographic and grazing histories., The removal of large herbivores resulted in divergent responses in the grass communities at Konza and Kruger that was consistent across fire treatments. At Konza, there was a rapid and significant response to grazing exclusion while the response was muted and transient at Kruger. Functional syndromes associated with grazing resistance were generally conserved across sites, and it was the functional strategies of the dominant species at each site that drove the divergent responses. Further, our study supports the hypothesis that grazing and aridity may be selective forces that act in parallel as those species that were grazing resistant also occupied drier niches., Synthesis. Our study demonstrates that savanna grassland communities with different biogeographic and grazing histories respond differently to the removal of large herbivores and that climate, fire and grazing are interactive forces in maintaining savanna grassland diversity and function. We show that the functional attributes of the dominant grasses, which are in part driven by the biogeographic and grazing history experienced, are the most relevant in predicting the response of savanna ecosystems to the loss of large herbivores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amplification of the hydrological cycle as a consequence of global warming is forecast to lead to more extreme intra-annual precipitation regimes characterized by larger rainfall events and longer intervals between events. We present a conceptual framework, based on past investigations and ecological theory, (or predicting the consequences of this under- appreciated aspect of climate change. We consider a broad range of terrestrial ecosystems that vary in their overall water balance More extreme rainfall regimes are expected to increase the duration and severity of soil water stress in xeric ecosystems as intervals between rainfall events increase, in contrast, xeric ecosystems may exhibit the opposite response to extreme events, larger but less frequent rainfall events may result in proportional reductions in evaporative losses in xeric systems, and thus may lead to greater soil water availability. Hydric (wetland) ecosystems are predicted to experience reduced periods of anoxia in response to prolonged intervals between rainfall events. Understanding these contingent effects of ecosystem water balance is necessary for predicting how more extreme precipitation regimes will modify ecosystem processes and alter interactions with related global change drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We review current understanding of plant responses to climate extremes. [•] Various mechanisms underlying plant responses to climate extremes are summarized. [•] We propose future research effort in extreme event research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]