1. A validation of models for prediction of pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes.
- Author
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Shyr C, Blackford AL, Huang T, Ke J, Ouardaoui N, Trippa L, Syngal S, Ukaegbu C, Uno H, Nafa K, Stadler ZK, Offit K, Amos CI, Lynch PM, Chen S, Giardiello FM, Buchanan DD, Hopper JL, Jenkins MA, Southey MC, Win AK, Figueiredo JC, Braun D, and Parmigiani G
- Subjects
- Germ-Line Mutation genetics, Heterozygote, Humans, Mismatch Repair Endonuclease PMS2 genetics, MutL Protein Homolog 1 genetics, Colorectal Neoplasms, Hereditary Nonpolyposis diagnosis, Colorectal Neoplasms, Hereditary Nonpolyposis genetics, DNA Mismatch Repair genetics
- Abstract
Purpose: Models used to predict the probability of an individual having a pathogenic homozygous or heterozygous variant in a mismatch repair gene, such as MMRpro, are widely used. Recently, MMRpro was updated with new colorectal cancer penetrance estimates. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of MMRpro and other models for individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer., Methods: We performed a validation study of 4 models, Leiden, MMRpredict, PREMM
5 , and MMRpro, using 784 members of clinic-based families from the United States. Predicted probabilities were compared with germline testing results and evaluated for discrimination, calibration, and predictive accuracy. We analyzed several strategies to combine models and improve predictive performance., Results: MMRpro with additional tumor information (MMRpro+) and PREMM5 outperformed the other models in discrimination and predictive accuracy. MMRpro+ was the best calibrated with an observed to expected ratio of 0.98 (95% CI = 0.89-1.08). The combination models showed improvement over PREMM5 and performed similar to MMRpro+., Conclusion: MMRpro+ and PREMM5 performed well in predicting the probability of having a pathogenic homozygous or heterozygous variant in a mismatch repair gene. They serve as useful clinical decision tools for identifying individuals who would benefit greatly from screening and prevention strategies., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest G.P. is a cofounder and equity holder in Phaeno Inc., a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of Konica Minolta Precision Medicine, Inc (which includes Ambry Genetics and Invicro), and a consultant for Delfi Diagnostics and Foundation Medicine, Inc. D.B. and G.P. colead the BayesMendel lab, which develops and maintains the BayesMendel software package. This includes a variety of risk assessment tools including BRCAPRO, PancPRO, MelaPRO, MMRpro, and PanelPRO and is licensed for commercial use. All licensing revenues are used for software maintenance and upgrades. Neither BayesMendel lab leaders nor members derive personal income from BayesMendel licenses. D.B. and G.P. are coinventor of the Ask2me tool, which is commercially licensed. D.B.’s conflicts of interest are managed by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. S.S. has been a consultant for Myriad Genetics, Inc and has rights to the inventor portion of licensing revenues for the PREMM model. Z.K.S.’s immediate family member serves as a consultant in Ophthalmology for Alcon, Adverum Biotechnologies, Gyroscope Therapeutics Limited, Neurogene Inc, and REGENXBIO Inc, outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2022 American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)- Published
- 2022
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