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A Bayesian statistical approach for determining the parameter uncertainty of a storm-water treatment model is reported. The storm-water treatment technologies included a sand filter and a subsurface gravel wetland. The two field systems were loaded and monitored in a side-by-side fashion over a two-year period. The loading to each system was storm-water runoff generated by ambient rainfall on a commuter parking lot. Contaminant transport is simulated by using a one-dimensional advection-dispersion model. The unknown parameters of the model are the contaminant deposition rate and the hydrodynamic dispersion. The following contaminants are considered in the study: total suspended solids, total petroleum hydrocarbons-diesel range hydrocarbons, and zinc. Parameter uncertainties are addressed by estimating the posterior probability distributions through a conventional Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Results indicate that the posterior distributions are unimodal and, in some instances, exhibit some level of skewness. The Bayesian approach allowed the estimation of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of the posterior probability distributions. The prediction capabilities of the model were explored by performing a Monte Carlo simulation using the calculated posterior distributions and two rainfall-runoff events not considered during the calibration phase. The objective is to estimate effluent concentrations from the treatment systems under different scenarios of flow and contaminant loads. In general, estimated effluent concentrations and the total estimated mass fell within the defined uncertainty limits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a complete Bayesian methodology for analyzing spatial data, one which employs proper priors and features diagnostic methods in the Bayesian spatial setting. The spatial covariance structure is modeled using a rich class of covariance functions for Gaussian random fields. A general class of priors for trend, scale, and structural covariance parameters is considered. In particular, we obtain analytic results that allow easy computation of the predictive distribution for an arbitrary prior on the parameters of the covariance function using importance sampling. The computations, as well as model diagnostics and sensitivity analysis, are illustrated with a set of precipitation data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we present an improved procedure for collecting no or little atmosphere- and snow-contaminated observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. The resultant time series of daily MODIS data of a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest (the Bartlett Experimental Forest) in 2004 show strong seasonal dynamics of surface reflectance of green, near infrared and shortwave infrared bands, and clearly delineate leaf phenology and length of plant growing season. We also estimate the fractions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by vegetation canopy (FAPARcanopy), leaf (FAPARleaf), and chlorophyll (FAPARchl), respectively, using a coupled leaf-canopy radiative transfer model (PROSAIL-2) and daily MODIS data. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method (the Metropolis algorithm) is used for model inversion, which provides probability distributions of the retrieved variables. A two-step procedure is used to estimate the fractions of absorbed PAR: (1) to retrieve biophysical and biochemical variables from MODIS images using the PROSAIL-2 model; and (2) to calculate the fractions with the estimated model variables from the first step. Inversion and forward simulations of the PROSAIL-2 model are carried out for the temperate deciduous broadleaf forest during day of year (DOY) 184 to 201 in 2005. The reproduced reflectance values from the PROSAIL-2 model agree well with the observed MODIS reflectance for the five spectral bands (green, red, NIR1, NIR2, and SWIR1). The estimated leaf area index, leaf dry matter, leaf chlorophyll content and FAPARcanopy values are close to field measurements at the site. The results also showed significant differences between FAPARcanopy and FAPARchl at the site. Our results show that MODIS imagery provides important information on biophysical and biochemical variables at both leaf and canopy levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]