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• SWAT-C predicts dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export from variable source areas. • Remotely sensed data reduced uncertainty in model predictions. • DOC predictions are sensitive to soil properties. • DOC flux is more sensitive to increases in precipitation than air temperature. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface water influences the global carbon cycle, ecosystem productivity, and water quality in potable water supply systems. Few physically based watershed models can simulate carbon cycling and predict DOC in surface waters under the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers. In this work we transform the SWAT-Carbon (C) model to simulate DOC from variable source runoff areas in a humid forested watershed in the northeastern United States. Remotely sensed data were used to parameterize and simulate forest growth and evapotranspiration. The calibrated model accurately simulated streamflow and DOC flux at six sites across the watershed compared to measured data. The DOC predictions across sites showed model sensitivity to soil properties, particularly soil depth and available water capacity. The spatial distribution of DOC export across the watershed followed the pattern of surface runoff from variable source areas. Model sensitivity of DOC flux showed greater sensitivity to changes in precipitation than temperature. The overall good performance of the model makes it a valuable tool for watershed-scale modeling of DOC to understand the influence of climate and watershed management towards developing mitigation strategies. The methods presented in this study can be used in forested watersheds in regions where runoff from variable source areas is important for water quality predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]