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To independently validate the negative predictive value of the Tanta University risk model for intensive care requirements in poison center telephone consultations with other physicians. This study included 400 consecutive patients with acute poisoning. Clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded during the initial consultation with the poison center. Patients who were already ventilated or on vasopressors at the time of consultation were excluded. The Tanta University risk model score was calculated from the data according to the following equation: Tanta University risk model score = 1.966*Glasgow Coma Scale + 0.329*oxygen saturation (percent) + 0.212*diastolic blood pressure (mmHg) − 0.27*respiratory rate (breaths/minute) + 0.33*standard bicarbonate (mmol/L). Twenty-four hours later, the patients' courses were followed up by telephone. The Tanta University risk model was then compared to a composite endpoint indicating the requirement for admission to an intensive care unit (vasopressors, need for intubation, or death). Four hundred patients with acute poisoning were included. Thirty-seven patients had a complicated clinical course as defined by the composite endpoint. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed the area under the curve to be 0.87 (95 percent confidence interval 0.83–0.90). An unfavorable Tanta University risk model score was defined as less than 73.46, using a cut-off derived from a previous study of an unrelated series of patients with acute poisoning admitted to our service. Thirty-one of 37 patients with complicated courses had an unfavorable Tanta University risk model score compared to six patients with complicated courses among 306 patients with a favorable Tanta University risk model score (P < 0.0002, Fisher's exact test). Sixty-three patients had an unfavorable Tanta University risk model score but an uneventful course. The negative predictive value of the Tanta University risk model was 0.98 (95 percent confidence interval 0.96–0.99), sensitivity was 0.84, and specificity 0.83. In the present study of poison center telephone consultations, the Tanta University risk model was significantly related to the outcomes in patients with acute poisoning. Patients with a favorable Tanta University risk model score (greater than or equal to 73.46) were unlikely to need intensive care unit level of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To independently validate the predictive value of the Tanta University Risk Model for intensive care requirement in unselected poisoned patients. Retrospective chart review of 293 poisoned patients. The Tanta University Risk Model was calculated as follows: Tanta University Risk Model = −1.966*Glasgow Coma Scale − 0.329*oxygen saturation − 0.212*diastolic blood pressure + 0.27*respiratory rate − 0.33*standard bicarbonate. It was then compared to a composite endpoint indicating an intensive care unit requirement (death in hospital, vasopressors, need for intubation). Nineteen of 293 patients had a complicated clinical course as defined by meeting the primary endpoint definition. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed the area under the curve to be 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.73–0.83). A positive Tanta University Risk Model was defined >−73.46. Fifteen out of 84 patients with a positive Tanta University Risk Model had a complicated course, while four of 209 patients with a negative Tanta University risk model had a complicated course (P<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). The negative predictive value of the Tanta University Risk Model was 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.95–0.99), the sensitivity was 0.79 and that specificity was 0.75. Poisoned patients with a negative Tanta University Risk Model score are unlikely to need an intensive care unit level of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]