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Neuroanatomical pattern classification using support vector machines (SVMs) has shown promising results in classifying Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients based on individual structural magnetic resonance images (MRI). To determine whether pattern classification using SVMs facilitates predicting conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). We used baseline MRI data from 364 patients with CIS, randomised to interferon beta-1b or placebo. Non-linear SVMs and 10-fold cross-validation were applied to predict converters/non-converters (175/189) at two years follow-up based on clinical and demographic data, lesion-specific quantitative geometric features and grey-matter-to-whole-brain volume ratios. We applied linear SVM analysis and leave-one-out cross-validation to subgroups of converters (n = 25) and non-converters (n = 44) based on cortical grey matter segmentations. Highest prediction accuracies of 70.4% (p = 8e-5) were reached with a combination of lesion-specific geometric (image-based) and demographic/clinical features. Cortical grey matter was informative for the placebo group (acc.: 64.6%, p = 0.002) but not for the interferon group. Classification based on demographic/clinical covariates only resulted in an accuracy of 56% (p = 0.05). Overall, lesion geometry was more informative in the interferon group, EDSS and sex were more important for the placebo cohort. Alongside standard demographic and clinical measures, both lesion geometry and grey matter based information can aid prediction of conversion to CDMS.

Background: Long-term follow-up from the randomized trial of interferon beta-1b (IFNB-1b) permitted the assessment of different definitions of no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) for predicting long-term outcome in multiple sclerosis (MS)., Objective: To examine the predictive validity of different NEDA definitions., Methods: Predictive validity for negative disability outcomes (NDOs) at 16 years and survival at 21 years post-randomization were assessed. NEDA in the first 2 years was defined as follows: clinical NEDA: no relapses or Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression from baseline to Year 2; NEDA-3a: no relapses, no confirmed ⩾1-point EDSS progression, and no new T2-active lesions; NEDA-3b: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2 burden of disease (T2-BOD); and NEDA-4: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2-BOD or atrophy. NDOs were defined as death, need for wheelchair, EDSS ⩾6, or progressive MS., Results: A total of 245 and 371 patients were evaluated at 16 and 21 years, respectively. Clinical NEDA predicted NDOs ( p = 0.0029), as did baseline EDSS ( p < 0.0001), baseline T2-BOD ( p < 0.0001), and change in T2-BOD ( p = 0.0033). IFNB-1b treatment ( p = 0.0251), relapse rate in the 2 years before study start ( p = 0.0260), T2-BOD at baseline ( p = 0.0014), and change in T2-BOD ( p = 0.0129) predicted survival at 21 years., Conclusion: Clinical NEDA predicted long-term disability outcome. By contrast, definitions of NEDA that included on-therapy changes in magnetic resonance imaging variables did not increase the predictive validity.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment intervention with immunomodulating therapy at early disease stage improves short term clinical outcomes. The objective of this study is to describe the long-term outcomes and healthcare utilization of patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) included in the Betaferon®/Betaseron® in Newly Emerging MS for Initial Treatment (BENEFIT) randomized, parallel group trial. In BENEFIT patients were assigned to "early" IFNB-1b treatment or placebo ("delayed" treatment). After 2 years or conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS), all patients were offered IFNB-1b and were reassessed 15 years later. Of 468 patients, 261 (55.8%) were enrolled into BENEFIT 15 (161 [55.1%] from the early, 100 [56.8%] from the delayed treatment arm). In the full BENEFIT analysis set, risk of conversion to CDMS remained lower in the early treatment group (– 30.5%; hazard ratio 0.695 [95% CI, 0.547–0.883]; p = 0.0029) with a 15.7% lower risk of relapse than in the delayed treatment group (p = 0.1008). Overall, 25 patients (9.6%; 9.9% early, 9.0% delayed) converted to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Disability remained low and stable with no significant difference between groups in Expanded Disability Status Scale score or MRI metrics. Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task-3 scores were better in the early treatment group (p = 0.0036 for treatment effect over 15 years). 66.3% of patients were still employed at Year 15 versus 74.7% at baseline. In conclusion, results 15 years from initial randomization support long-term benefits of early treatment with IFNB-1b. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]