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Geographically large climatic hazard events are occurring more frequently, and with this increase, more research emphasis is being placed on their impact. However, a metrology for selecting which communities to survey following an event is not frequently discussed and as a result does not effectively incorporate all relevant disciplines in disaster research. This article provides a method for selecting communities for inclusion in field studies not only based on anticipated damage but also community-level social factors that show predictive power in long-term analyses. Due to the perishable nature of disaster data, this social metric and the field study decision tool were developed with the intent of being as rapidly implementable as possible while still providing insight regarding long-term post-event community trends. The community-level social metric was developed using a hindcasting technique for hazard events in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013. Thresholds for stability and decline were established for both the predicted and the actual community outcomes. Of the communities that the model predicted would recover, 73% recovered using the definition provided. Meanwhile 74% of the communities predicted to decline did indeed decline, again using the definition provided. To enhance operability of this social metric, a decision-making tool for community selection was also formalized and implemented in a field study conducted following the December 2021 quad-state tornado outbreak in the United States. The lessons learned from this first implementation were used to inform a refined version of the decision-making tool that is presented herein., (© 2024 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.)

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity owing to climate change. Individual-level behavioural responses-notably, disaster preparedness and community helping actions (such as donating and volunteering)-supplement government efforts to respond to such phenomena, but rarely have they been explored together. Using data from a survey administered soon after the 2020 Oregon wildfires, this paper compares a range of socio-demographic, experiential, attitudinal, and communication-related factors associated with these two individual-level behavioural responses. Findings indicate that respondents who reported experiencing a higher degree of harm and heightened concern about climate change after the wildfires were more likely to report disaster preparedness and community helping actions. Those who reported more frequent informal discussions about the wildfires, consulting more sources to seek information on them, and higher percentages of friends, neighbours, and community members taking actions to prepare for future wildfires also reported more disaster preparedness and community helping actions. Disaster preparedness actions were also positively associated with seeking information from formal/official sources., (© 2023 The Authors Disasters © 2023 ODI.)

Background: Coinciding with the rising non-communicable disease (NCD) prevalence worldwide is the increasing frequency and severity of natural hazards. Protecting populations with NCDs against natural hazards is ever more pressing given their increased risk of morbidity and mortality in disaster contexts. This investigation examined Hurricane Maria's impacts across ten lower SES municipalities in Puerto Rico with varying community characteristics and hurricane impacts to understand experiences of supporting individuals with NCD management in the six-month period following the hurricane., Methods: We conducted 40 qualitative interviews with mayors, first responders, faith leaders, community leaders, and municipal employees from 10 municipalities in Puerto Rico. Using QSR NVivo software, we deductively and inductively coded interview transcripts and undertook thematic analysis to characterize community-level hurricane impact and consequences for NCD management, and to identify convergent and divergent themes., Results: Damages to infrastructure, including healthcare facilities and roadways, complicated the provision of timely health care for NCDs, patient transport, and pharmaceutical/medical supply chain continuity. Lengthy power outages at both healthcare facilities and private residences were barriers to healthcare service delivery, use of medical equipment, and storage of prescription medications with refrigeration, and led to a widespread mental health crisis. Cascading failures such as fuel shortages further compounded these challenges. The consequences of these impacts included the reported exacerbation of health conditions and loss of life among NCD patients., Conclusions: Study findings identify contributors to morbidity and mortality among individuals with NCDs following Hurricane Maria. With the growing frequency of catastrophic disasters from natural hazards, the experiences of communities that endured these impacts offer important lessons regarding policies and practices to better support community disaster resilience and address the evolving preparedness needs of NCD patients., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

In times of crisis, working equids can play a pivotal role in supporting vulnerable people in lower middle income countries. However, their contributions are rarely acknowledged in academic research, media reporting, international policy, and development initiatives. This paper explores the involvement of working equids in humanitarian emergencies, notably those pertaining to conflict, drought, climate change, and natural hazards. It presents 'critical cases', informed by document analysis of policy papers, historical texts, and academic publications. In addition, it includes the findings of semi-structured interviews with key informants, primarily field staff working for frontline services in crisis zones, conducted in mid 2020. The paper develops evidence on the role of working equids in crisis situations-expanding the concept of 'resilience' to include working animals and contributing to recent academic discussions in the fields of disaster and development studies-highlighting their importance for global policy, resilience programming, and disaster risk reduction, including efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals., (© 2021 The Authors Disasters © 2021 ODI.)

Schools have a significant role in disaster education to children. This study investigates the research works about school-based education programs in order to discover challenges and best practices. We conducted a systematic review of English language papers published in peer-review journals.The search identified 2577 publications and 61 articles meeting selection criteria and included in the review. Reviewed studies indicated that disaster education in schools is effective but yet insufficient in many countries. Lack of equipment, financial resources, policy gaps, and teachers' knowledge are common problems in programs. Main outcomes of this systematic review are showing methods used for health emergency preparedness of children of different ages and gender differences in school-based disaster preparedness, as well as the difference in their lifesaving skills in disasters.This study shows that some disaster education programs reported in the papers reviewed were not high-quality enough, which may lead to insufficient preparedness of children in disasters and consequently may put their health at risk, considering the increasing number of natural hazards.

Understanding and modelling future risks from natural hazards is becoming increasingly crucial as the climate changes, human population grows, asset wealth accumulates, and societies become more urbanised and interconnected. This need is recognised by the 2015-2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which emphasises the importance of preparing for the disasters that our world may face tomorrow through strategies/policies that aim to minimise uncontrolled development in hazardous areas. While the vast majority of natural-hazard risk-assessment frameworks have so far focused on static impacts associated with current conditions and/or are influenced by historical context, some authors have sought to provide decision makers with risk-quantification approaches that can be used to cultivate a sustainable future. This Review documents these latter efforts, explicitly examining work that has modelled and quantified the individual components that comprise tomorrow's risk, i.e., future natural hazards affected by climate change, future exposure (e.g., in terms of population, land use, and the built environment), and the evolving physical vulnerabilities of the world's infrastructure. We end with a discussion on the challenges faced by modellers in determining the risks that tomorrow's world may face from natural hazards, and the constraints these place on the decision-making abilities of relevant stakeholders., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Volunteers play a crucial role in post-disaster situations, providing resources, emotional support, and labour when local and national government capacity may be diminished. The number of volunteers who assist can range from dozens to more than one million. Yet, little is known about the broader conditions that result in more (or fewer) of them heading to disaster sites. Using a new dataset of 57 disasters in Japan between 1995 and 2019, this study analyses the factors influencing volunteer turnout. Controlling for a number of aspects, three are found to correlate most strongly: the number of dead and missing; the size of the population affected by the shock; and the time period of the year. Moving beyond tables of regression coefficients, simulations and graphics are used to illustrate the relationship between key variables of interest as well as uncertainty about the predictions. The study's findings-robust across multiple model types-have important policy and practical implications., (© 2020 The Authors Disasters © 2020 ODI.)

Small businesses are critical to community recovery from disasters. However, factors that affect outcomes (such as planning, information needs, and responses to warnings) are understudied. To address the research record's focus on policy that favours disaster mitigation rather than response, this project applied a two-phased, mixed-method approach. The first study comprised interviews with businesses to elucidate disaster planning approaches, knowledge and information needs, and current warning system adequacy. It revealed opportunities to build knowledge and add business-specific content to agency-issued warnings. The second study used an online survey to examine how disaster knowledge, planning, and experience are related to existing bushfire warnings and those modified with business-relevant content. The findings show that planning is associated with experience and knowledge but not with business-related protective action intentions. Modified messages were perceived as more effective and resulted in greater action intentions among those with bushfire experience. In sum, the paper highlights implications for small business-oriented disaster risk communication., (© 2021 The Authors Disasters © 2021 ODI.)

This paper aims to provide preliminary evidence on the degree of consensus on the approach to long-term mental health and psychosocial support after a natural hazard event. We conducted an online survey among mental health experts in Japan. The questionnaire was divided into five categories: (A) terminology setting definition of "long-term", (B) priority in activity for long-term mental health support, (C) system and preparedness for better support, (D) transition from acute support to long-term support, and (E) actions to improve preparedness for future disasters. Invitations to participate in the survey were sent by e-mail in November 2017 to mental health experts in Japan, who had participated in workshops related to disaster mental health or trauma care organized by the National Institute of Mental Health over the last 15 years. Out of 1385 experts who received the invitation, a total of 305 participants responded to the survey. Participants were for the most part in agreement regarding focuses and required preparedness and actions for long-term support. There was still low consensus especially on defining the timeframe "long-term". The acute phase and long-term phase were identified as being different in dimension rather than category. Although caution is necessary around the representativeness of these findings, they will provide important scientific evidence for the development of future plans for a qualitative improvement in long-term mental health support.

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: With natural hazards increasing in frequency and severity and global population aging, preparedness efforts must evolve to address older adults' risks in disasters. This study elucidates potential contributors to the elevated older adult mortality risk following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico through an examination of community stakeholder preparedness, response, and recovery experiences., Methods: In April 2018, qualitative interviews (n = 22) were conducted with stakeholders in 7 Puerto Rican municipalities. Interview transcripts were deductively and inductively coded and analyzed to identify salient topics and themes representing participant response patterns., Results: The hurricane's detrimental impact on older adult health emerged as a prominent finding. Through 6 months post-hurricane, many older adults experienced unmet needs that contributed to declining physical and emotional health, inadequate non-communicable disease management, social isolation, financial strain, and excess morbidity and mortality. These needs were predominantly consequences of lengthy public service gaps, unsafe living conditions, interrupted health care, and the incongruence between preparedness and event severity., Conclusions: In a landscape of increasing natural hazard frequency and magnitude, a pattern of older adult risk has become increasingly clear. Study findings compel practitioners to engage in natural hazard preparedness planning, research, and policy-making that considers the multiple facets of older adult well-being.

Background: Individuals affected by disasters are at risk for adverse mental health sequelae. Individuals living in the US Gulf Coast have experienced many recent major disasters, but few studies have explored the cumulative burden of experiencing multiple disasters on mental health., Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between disaster burden and mental health., Methods: We used data from 9278 Gulf Long-term Follow-up Study participants who completed questionnaires on perceived stress, anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 2011-2013. We linked 2005-2010 county-level data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States, a database of loss-causing events, to participant's home address. Exposure measures included total count of loss events as well as severity quantified as property/crop losses per capita from all hazards. We used multilevel modeling to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each exposure-outcome relationship., Results: Total count of loss events was positively associated with perceived stress (OR Q4 :1.40, 95% CI:1.21-1.61) and was inversely associated with PTSD (OR Q4 :0.66, 95% CI:0.45-0.96). Total duration of exposure was also associated with stress (OR Q4 :1.16, 95% CI:1.01-1.33) but not with other outcomes. Severity based on cumulative fatalities/injuries was associated with anxiety (OR Q4 :1.31, 95% CI:1.05-1.63) and stress (OR Q4 :1.34, 95% CI:1.15-1.57), and severity based on cumulative property/crop losses was associated with anxiety (OR Q4 :1.42, 95% CI:1.12-1.81), depression (OR Q4 :1.22, 95% CI:0.95-1.57) and PTSD (OR Q4 :1.99, 95% CI:1.44-2.76)., (© 2021. This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

Background: Although natural disasters can threaten health and well-being, some people show greater resilience to their effects than others. Identifying the characteristics related to resilience has important implications for reducing the health risks in the aftermath of a disaster., Objective: Using the Conservation of Resources Theory as a framework, we study the role of resources in moderating the adverse effects of natural disasters on people's health and coping behaviors., Method: We match 20,658 unique individuals aged 50 or older from the 2012-2016 waves of the Health and Retirement Study to the county-level annual natural hazard data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Using individual-fixed effect models, we first model whether the experience of natural disasters can predict people's health and coping behaviors. We then explore heterogeneity in such effects by interacting individual- and county-level resilience resources with the number of natural disasters., Results: The results show that with increased exposure to natural disasters, older adults are more likely to experience difficulties performing instrumental daily activities. They also tend to have fewer overnight hospital stays, higher out-of-pocket medical expenses, and increased alcohol dependency. However, older adults with certain socio-economic characteristics ‒ white, higher education, higher income, and homeownership ‒ are better able than others to mitigate any adverse health effects of natural disasters. One significant community-level resource is a robust healthcare capacity in a county with a high ratio of healthcare practitioners, where older adults are more likely to seek hospital care and have lower alcohol dependency., Conclusions: Health resilience can be improved by strengthening community-level healthcare capacity, with a particular focus on residents with lower socio-economic resources. Failing to address healthcare provision inequalities may exacerbate health disparities., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Natural hazards can be prominent and powerful mechanisms that impact the remediation and restoration of contaminated sites and the revitalization of communities associated with these sites. The potential for hazardous material releases following a natural disaster can exacerbate the impact of contaminated sites by causing the release of toxic or hazardous materials and inhibiting the restoration of the site as well as altering the long-term sustainable revitalization of adjacent communities. Disaster-related hazardous releases, particularly in population-dense areas, can create problems as difficult as the original site clean-up. Similarly, exposure of contaminated sites to natural hazards can enhance the probability of future issues associated with the site. This manuscript addresses the co-occurrence of 12 natural hazards (singly and in combination) and individual Superfund sites.

Social vulnerability indicators are a valuable tool for understanding which population groups are more vulnerable to experiencing negative impacts from disasters, and where these groups live, to inform disaster risk management activities. While many approaches have been used to measure social vulnerability to natural hazards, there is no single method or universally agreed approach. This paper proposes a novel approach to developing social vulnerability indicators, using the example of flooding in Aotearoa New Zealand. A conceptual framework was developed to guide selection of the social vulnerability indicators, based on previous frameworks (including the MOVE framework), consideration of climate change, and a holistic view of health and wellbeing. Using this framework, ten dimensions relating to social vulnerability were identified: exposure; children; older adults; health and disability status; money to cope with crises/losses; social connectedness; knowledge, skills and awareness of natural hazards; safe, secure and healthy housing; food and water to cope with shortage; and decision making and participation. For each dimension, key indicators were identified and implemented, mostly using national Census population data. After development, the indicators were assessed by end users using a case study of Porirua City, New Zealand, then implemented for the whole of New Zealand. These indicators will provide useful data about social vulnerability to floods in New Zealand, and these methods could potentially be adapted for other jurisdictions and other natural hazards, including those relating to climate change.

This study aimed to assess the multi-level effects of natural hazards on trust in Chinese society. Drawing on the Chinese General Social Survey conducted in 2012 and provincial disaster damage records, it examined the association between individuals' past experiences of disasters and province-level damage (measured by the number of affected people, deaths, and economic loss) and various forms of trust: in-group; out-group; generalised; and political. The findings indicate that Chinese individuals with experience of disasters have higher levels of out-group trust but lower levels of political trust. Similarly, at the province level, damage owing to disasters over the past three years (2009-11) positively impacted on residents' out-group trust while negatively affecting their political trust. However, when provincial damage was aggregated for disasters over the past five years (2007-11), which included the devastating Sichuan earthquake on 12 May 2008, only total deaths had a positive effect on generalised trust., (© 2019 The Authors Disasters © 2019 Overseas Development Institute.)

Background: Humanitarian settings often present unique scientific challenges and conditions that distinguish them from standard research settings. While a number of these challenges are faced in both standard settings and humanitarian settings, factors unique to humanitarian settings such as inaccessibility and time sensitivities further exacerbate the effects of these challenges. This analysis focuses on experiences in post-disaster contexts such as Indonesia and India following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, and Nepal following the 2015 earthquake., Discussion: Particular issues that we faced in undertaking research in post-disaster settings include challenges with uncharted ethical and cultural considerations, non-standardised administrative methods for record keeping, data sharing and dissemination. While these issues are not unique to post-disaster humanitarian settings, the time-sensitive nature of our work exacerbated the effects of these concerns. Relying on local partners and making quick decisions to tackle issues is imperative for navigating both foreseen and unforeseen challenges. While pre-emptive action to address these concerns is the most efficient means to expedite research protocols, adaptability and contingency planning are key components of practical research implementation in dynamic situations., Conclusions: Research is not always a priority in humanitarian settings, so innovative methods are necessary to conduct meaningful and situationally appropriate research in these venues. By understanding available resources, local culture, and political considerations and working efficiently and decisively, we can begin to jump hurdles associated with epidemiologic research in humanitarian settings.

As projections about the number and scale of natural hazard events and their impact on human populations grow, increasing attention is being paid to developing effective means for preparing for and mitigating those impacts. At the same time there is an emerging understanding that gradual and incremental changes in disaster risk reduction (DRR) will not adequately meet the future needs of vulnerable populations. Transformational changes have been identified as a necessary requirement to avoid ongoing large-scale losses of life and property and models have been proposed to recalibrate DRR strategies to achieve transformative changes. One cited example of a transformative change in DRR is that of Simeulue Island. Simeulue Island suffered two tsunamis approximately 100 years apart (1907, 2004) with markedly different impacts. This paper looks in detail at the cognitive and developmental mechanisms Simeulue co-opted to sustain the transformational change throughout the 20th century. Information from interviews and observation identified the role of grandmothers have in the effective communication of risk as well as motivating appropriate action to save lives. The possibility of similarly overlooked, local, and pre-existing community capacities for transformative change in DRR is then discussed.

This case study outlines the actions of Cuba's Veterinary Service, as part of the country's disaster risk reduction and management system, in response to Hurricane Irma. The phenomenon affected ten of Cuba's 15 provinces and caused significant damage in 53 of its municipalities (29.6%). During the response effort, the pre-established measures for the various phases (warning, alert and emergency) were deployed according to the disaster reduction plans for each level. In all provinces, animals were protected by moving them to safer locations, allowing for pre-established sanitary measures and technical assistance. Nonetheless, damage was incurred, mainly to the roofs of some animal housing. The following deaths were recorded: 210,150 poultry, 2,752 cattle (of which 73.8% were calves) and 866 pigs (of which 68% were young animals). In addition, 7% of the inventory of hives was damaged and 3.3% of hives were lost. Damage to infrastructure included: 466 poultry houses, 1,422 cattle houses, 431 pig houses, 1,200 wind pumps and 13 of the country's 17 feed concentrate plants. As no major damage was reported to the Veterinary Service's facilities (laboratories and offices), its viability was guaranteed at all times. Rapid damage assessment enabled priorities for rehabilitation and recovery actions to be set, with the result that, just three months after the hurricane had struck, 67% of the poultry houses and 33% of the pig houses had been restored. This article focuses on preparedness, response and lessons learned.

Building disaster resilience is a stated goal of disaster risk reduction programs. Recent research emphasizes a need for a greater understanding of community disaster response and recovery capacity so that communities can absorb shocks and withstand severe conditions and progress through the recovery period more efficiently. Nepal, which is prone to a multitude of hazards and having recently experienced a large earthquake in 2015, provides a unique opportunity for exploring disaster resilience in the developing world context. To date, no study investigating community disaster resilience across the entire country of Nepal exists. This study quantifies disaster resilience at Nepal's village level, primarily using census data. Guided by the Disaster Resilience of Place (DROP) model, 22 variables were selected as indicators of social, economic, community, infrastructure, and environmental resilience. Community resilience was assessed for 3971 village development communities (VDCs) and municipalities while using a principal component analysis. Additionally, a cluster analysis was performed to distinguish spatial patterns of resilience. Analyses reveal differential community disaster resilience across the country. Communities in the capital city Kathmandu and in the western and far western Hill are relatively resilient. While the entire Tarai region, which holds the greatest proportion of Nepal's population, exhibits relatively low levels of resilience when compared to the rest of the county. The results from this analysis provide empirical evidence with the potential to help decision-makers in the allocation of scarce resources to increase resilience at the local level.

The uncertainty and complexity of natural hazards put forward new requirements for emergency management systems. In order to deal with natural hazards effectively, it is important to build a cooperative network between government organizations and social organizations. The social network analysis method is adopted, the April 2013 Ya'an China earthquake is taken as a case study, the institutionalized emergency organization network before the disaster and the actual response organization network after the disaster are analyzed, and centrality, between centrality, closeness centrality and core-periphery are calculated. Through qualitative and quantitative research, the functions of social organization in the process of natural hazards emergency relief are revealed, the role orientation of social organization in the emergency management network is analyzed, and the influence factors of the social organization participation in the natural hazards relief is pointed out. Research results will help to promote the cooperation between social organization and government, and improve the efficiency of natural hazards emergency relief.

How livelihoods determine vulnerability to disasters is a recent topic of inquiry. Few quantitative works have been produced to date. The empirical analysis that follows draws on household-level data available for Nicaragua, preceding and following Hurricane Mitch, a devastating Category 5 storm that made landfall in Central America in October 1998, to examine differentials in disaster recovery outcomes vis-à-vis household livelihood profiles. Livelihoods are distinguished according to economic sector along with ownership of productive means, a central mechanism of vulnerability under sociological labour frameworks. The findings indicate uneven recovery outcomes in relation to livelihoods. During the year immediately following the event, agricultural wage earners and agricultural owner-producers experienced marked losses owing to the disaster, whereas business owners saw an improvement in condition. Analysis of long-term recovery reveals that households reliant on agricultural wage employment exhibit lagged recovery relative to other livelihood profiles. The findings are discussed with respect to the dynamic pressures posed by contemporary developmental processes., (© 2019 The Author Disasters © 2019 Overseas Development Institute.)

New multidimensional indicators of vulnerability to disaster from external shocks were constructed using survey data covering 1750 respondents from rural Nigeria. Simple ordinary least squares and decomposition analysis were then used to examine the effect of recurrent shocks on livelihood diversification. The results elicited several findings. Although findings from the constructed vulnerability indices revealed overall high risks of disasters, females were disproportionally more vulnerable to cattle rustling. Conversely, both natural hazard-induced and cattle rustling-driven shocks have a strong negative impact on livelihood diversification. This effect is invariant regardless of the perceived gender of the respondents. Decomposition results show that recurrent shocks have moderate influences on inter-gender income disparities, as a larger proportion of the inequalities are explained by demographic characteristics. The findings point to a number of policy recommendations, most notably that the disaster prevention and management strategies should prioritise interventions that have a direct bearing on an individual's economic, human, and social capitals.

Post-catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004-with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases-regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric-based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives-based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability., (© 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.)

Achieving the policy and practice shifts needed to secure ecosystem services is hampered by the inherent complexities of ecosystem services and their management. Methods for the participatory production and exchange of knowledge offer an avenue to navigate this complexity together with the beneficiaries and managers of ecosystem services. We develop and apply a knowledge coproduction approach based on social-ecological systems research and assess its utility in generating shared knowledge and action for ecosystem services. The approach was piloted in South Africa across four case studies aimed at reducing the risk of disasters associated with floods, wildfires, storm waves, and droughts. Different configurations of stakeholders (knowledge brokers, assessment teams, implementers, and bridging agents) were involved in collaboratively designing each study, generating and exchanging knowledge, and planning for implementation. The approach proved useful in the development of shared knowledge on the sizable contribution of ecosystem services to disaster risk reduction. This knowledge was used by stakeholders to design and implement several actions to enhance ecosystem services, including new investments in ecosystem restoration, institutional changes in the private and public sector, and innovative partnerships of science, practice, and policy. By bringing together multiple disciplines, sectors, and stakeholders to jointly produce the knowledge needed to understand and manage a complex system, knowledge coproduction approaches offer an effective avenue for the improved integration of ecosystem services into decision making.

People are more concerned about the negative consequences of human hazards compared with natural hazards. Results of four experiments show that the same negative outcome (e.g., number of birds killed by an oil spill) was more negatively evaluated when caused by humans than when caused by nature. Results further show that when identical risk information was provided, participants evaluated nuclear power more negatively compared with solar power. The affect associated with the hazard per se influenced the interpretation of the new information. Furthermore, the affect experienced in the situation fully mediated the evaluation of the negative outcomes of a hazard. People's reliance on the affect heuristic is a challenge for acceptance of cost-benefit analyses because equally negative outcomes are differently evaluated depending on the cause. Symbolically significant information and the affect evoked by this information may result in biased and riskier decisions., (© 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.)

With the burgeoning threats from natural hazards and extreme weather events driven by climate change in every section and sector of society, building resilience against disasters and risks posed by climate change has become an unescapable discourse. The study's main thrust is to establish the determinants of resilience building in Zimbabwe's rural communities. The study adopted the qualitative constructivist grounded theory approach in conjunction with participatory action research to gain insights from community members and traditional leaders. A total of forty-six participants from Chimanimani District, Zimbabwe participated in the study. The findings revealed that the availability of natural and human resources, collective efficacy, government and development agency support systems, indigenous knowledge systems, and livelihood diversification were crucial determinants of resilience building for rural communities in Zimbabwe. The identified determinants for resilience building signal that these determinants need to be harnessed to inform policy and practice interventions. Furthermore, the availability of the identified determinants implies that rural communities can minimise, and prevent losses, reduce exposure to natural hazards, disasters and climate change risks and manage the impacts of natural hazards whenever they emerge. The study recommends that these determinants be complemented by access to technology, resilient community infrastructures, robust social protection systems, and hazard risk assessment participatory processes by rural communities. In addition, effective emergency and health services, among other contingent measures essential to improve community resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the rainy season in Brazil, landslides can have catastrophic consequences, including loss of life, damage to urban infrastructure and significant economic impacts. Now, more than eight million people in Brazil live in disaster-prone areas. The objective of this article is to present a chronological review of the principal policies and programmes at the national, state, and municipal levels, with an emphasis on their key actions aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters related to natural hazards, particularly landslides. Our analysis was based on official records of public policies from the national, state, and municipal governments. The results show that several initiatives were initially developed at the local and regional level. However, it was not until the late 1980s that a comprehensive organisation of civil protection at the national level emerged as a response measure. It is possible to highlight three phases (understanding, coexistence, and prevention) of institutional action focused on risk management in the face of disasters. Despite the growing knowledge of risk scenarios, disasters continue to occur in Brazil on an annual basis, revealing several obstacles to reducing their impact, particularly given the social and economic disparities between Brazilian regions and the applicability of public policies that must overcome the limitations of each municipality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social vulnerability approaches seek to identify social, economic, and political drivers that exacerbate environmental risks, and inform adaptation strategies that redress uneven vulnerabilities. Social Vulnerability Indices (SVIs), one such approach, have exponentially increased in use since their inception in 2003. This paper contributes the most comprehensive and rigorous systematic assessment of SVIs to date, as applied in hazard and disaster contexts. We evaluate how 246 peer-reviewed articles, published online between 2003 and 2021, conceptualized, constructed, and applied SVIs across 20 distinct hazard and disaster contexts in 91 countries. Our review extends previous assessments, not only by analyzing a larger diversity and volume of burgeoning scholarship, but by linking the content, method, and objectives of SVIs to synthesize their strengths and limitations for addressing social vulnerability. Three overarching results are reported. First, we find indicators used to assess social vulnerability across hazards, spatial scales, and geographical contexts, were relatively homogenous. Most articles (81%) drew indicators and theories from already existing SVIs. While such replication is not inherently problematic, and to some extent, reflects established risk factors associated with hazards globally, the epistemological and methodological processes through which SVIs are readily reproduced and replicated warrant serious deliberation. Second, and relatedly, articles commonly used deductive, a priori approaches to identify indicators from secondary datasets, often at the expense of inductively derived representations of vulnerability. Most articles exclusively relied upon quantitative and/or spatial methods (94%) and used secondary or tertiary data alone (80%), without validation and ground-truthing processes (76%). Together, the replication of previous SVIs through deductive research approaches, and their wide application across diverse hazards and geographies, undermines the ability to capture vulnerability as a place-based and context-specific phenomena. Third, and compounding potential ineffectiveness, SVIs appear most often as reactive and post-hazard risk mitigation instruments, with data and findings rarely applied for policy change to address socioeconomic and political causes of vulnerability. Overall, SVIs are an increasingly used instrument; however, their replication without evolving epistemic and methodological approaches, combined with their constrained focus on reactive policy measures, hamper novel and necessary research for countering social vulnerability to increasingly severe socio-environmental and public health risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on disaster damage estimation for buildings has gained extensive attention due to the increased number of disastrous events, facilitating risk assessment, the effective integration of disaster resilience measures, and policy development. A systematic mapping study has been conducted, focusing on disaster damage estimation studies to identify trends, relationships, and gaps in this large and exponentially growing subject area. A novel approach using machine learning algorithms to screen, categorise, and map the articles was adopted to mitigate the constraints of manual handling. Out of 8608 articles from major scientific databases, the most relevant 2186 were used in the analysis. These articles were classified based on the hazard, geographical location, damage function properties, and building properties. Key observations reveal an emerging trend in publications, with most studies concentrated in developed and severely disaster-affected countries in America, Europe, and Asia. A significant portion (68%) of the relevant articles focus on earthquakes. However, as the key research opportunities, a notable research gap exists in studies focusing on the African and South American continents despite the significant damage caused by disasters there. Additionally, studies on floods, hurricanes, and tsunamis are minimal compared to those on earthquakes. Further trends and relationships in current studies were analysed to convey insights from the literature, identifying research gaps in terms of hazards, geographical locations, and other relevant parameters. These insights aim to effectively guide future research in disaster damage estimation for buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale disasters cause a wide variety of disruptions across impacted communities. Existing research has broadly addressed the ways in which both social norms and physical features constrain and dictate everyday life. During disasters, vast disruptions occur to both social and physical norms, which can have negative impacts on people's sensemaking processes. This study uses transcripts from 24 semi-structured interviews conducted with people from Paradise several months after they survived the Camp Fire – at the time, California's most destructive wildfire. Drawing on Durkheim's classical theory of anomie along with extensive work done by environmental sociologists about the importance of place, I introduce the concept of environmental anomie. This recognizes the ways in which sudden changes to the physical landscape can upend the established order and can undermine people's ability to comprehend, relate to, and function within their environment. Expectations from the physical environment are a taken-for-granted authority that guide and constrain the routines of daily living and enable people to locate themselves spatially and temporally. The Camp Fire challenged this authority in a way that mirrors Durkheim's socially conceived idea of normlessness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the granite regions of southern China, benggang poses a substantial threat to the ecological environment due to significant soil erosion. This phenomenon also imposes constraints on economic development, necessitating substantial investments in restoration efforts in recent decades. Despite these efforts, there remains a notable gap in comprehensive risk assessment that integrates both the erosion risk and disaster risk associated with benggang. This study focuses on a representative benggang area in Wuhua County, Guangdong province, employing transformer methods and high-resolution imagery to map the spatial pattern of the benggang. The integrated risk of benggang was assessed by combining soil-erosion risk and disaster risk, and cultivated land, residential land, and water bodies were identified as key disaster-affected entities. The machine-learning Segformer model demonstrated high precision, achieving an Intersection over Union (IoU) of 93.17% and an accuracy (Acc) of 96.73%. While the number of large benggang is relatively small, it constitutes the largest area proportion (65.10%); the number of small benggang is more significant (62.40%) despite a smaller area proportion. Prioritization for benggang management is categorized into high, medium, and low priority, accounting for 17.98%, 48.34%, and 33.69%, respectively. These priorities cover areas of 30.27%, 42.40%, and 27.33%, respectively. The findings of this study, which offer benggang management priorities, align with the nature-based solutions approach. Emphasizing the importance of considering costs and benefits comprehensively when formulating treatment plans, this approach contributes to sustainable solutions for addressing the challenges posed by benggang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial and temporal changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards in Mexico are analyzed. To this end, using census data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, and a statistical method, different indices were computed, and with a GIS-based approach, patterns of social vulnerability are examined. In addition, a risk assessment test for severe weather (thunderstorms, hailstorms, and tornadoes) is made out. The results show different common social vulnerability driving factors in the 3 analyzed years, with root causes that have not been addressed since the beginning of the century. Likewise, a wider gap between Mexico's most and least vulnerable populations is identified. The changes in spatial patterns respond to different historical situations, such as migration, urbanization, and increased population. Also, poverty, ethnicity, and marginalization factors located in very particular regions in Mexico have remained relatively the same in the last 20 twenty years. These situations have strongly influenced the spatial–temporal distribution of vulnerability in the country. The role of social vulnerability in the disaster risk to extreme events such as thunderstorms, hailstorms, and tornadoes in Mexico is fundamental to understanding changes in disaster distribution at the national level, and it is the first step to generating improvements in integrated risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mountain state of Uttarakhand constitutes a part of the North-western Indian Himalayan region and is inherently vulnerable to natural disasters. It is witnessing faster melting of glaciers and increased occurrences of disasters like cloudbursts, flash floods, landslides, landslide/glacial lake outburst floods, rock–ice avalanches, and debris flows. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the influence of changing climate on the occurrence of natural hazards. It assesses the status of two major rapidly developing infrastructures in the state (viz., hydropower plants and transportation network) under climate variability. Detailed causative analysis of two major disaster events (in Kedarnath and Chamoli in 2013 and 2021, respectively) and associated destruction is presented to understand the vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to hazards. Based on the challenges identified, a unique two-fold framework is proposed, and recommendations are articulated for building resilient and sustainable mountain infrastructures and communities in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Planning Education & Research is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The foremost priority of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) is the increased understanding of disaster risk and strengthening its management. Detailed insights into African disaster risk drivers and assessment of policies for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) are sparse, hence this study. Using the Index for Risk Management (INFORM) data for 2022, this study determines important disaster risk drivers in Africa using a random forest machine learning model. Violent conflicts, current and projected, emerge as the only hazard factor significantly predictive of disaster risk in Africa, from the analyzed data. Other factors are mostly the sub-components of lack of coping capacity. Furthermore, 25 policies of the 10 countries of very high disaster risk were analyzed to evaluate their inclusion of pre-identified disaster risk factors. The findings of this study depart from the viewpoint of giving natural hazards greater attention in African disaster risk literature. Moreover, identified disaster risk drivers in Africa coincide with the social dimension of disasters, and broader continental developmental and policy issues. As Africa grapples with the complex interplay of environmental, socioeconomic, and conflict-related factors shaping disaster risk, the imperative arises for the development and implementation of comprehensive policies aimed at poverty and vulnerability-reduction to foster resilience across the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corruption is widely believed to contribute to homelessness following a disaster triggered by natural hazards, as it is known to weaken resilience, deplete resources and stifle recovery. We test the association between corruption and post‐disaster homelessness using data from the Emergency Events Database and data on corruption in the construction sector from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys. Using instrumental variables and other estimation techniques, we find that corruption is associated with significantly more people left homeless following disasters. Corruption in the construction sector appears to be driving this result. These findings underline the importance of tackling corruption and poor construction practices in vulnerable communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Desacatos is the property of Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios Superiores en Antropologia Social and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Deriving timely natural disaster information is critical in emergency risk management and disaster recovery efforts. Due to the limitation of data availability, such information is difficult to obtain in a timely manner. In this research, VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) image time series from January 2014 to July 2019 were employed to reflect key changes between pre- and post-disasters. The Automated Valley Detection (AVD) model was proposed and applied to derive critical disaster indicators in the 2017 Hurricane Maria event in Puerto Rico. Critical disaster indicators include outage duration, damage degree, and recovery level. Two major findings can be concluded. First, the AVD model is a robust and useful approach to detecting sudden changes in NTL in terms of their location and duration at the census tract level. Second, the AVD-estimated disaster metrics are able to capture disaster information successfully and match with two types of reference data. These findings will be valuable for emergency planning and the energy industry to monitor and restore power outages in future natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2015, the U.S National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) funded the Center of Excellence for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning (CoE), a fourteen university-based consortium of almost 100 collaborators, including faculty, students, post-doctoral scholars, and NIST researchers. This paper highlights the scientific theory behind the state-of-the-art cloud platform being developed by the CoE - the Interdisciplinary Networked Community Resilience Modeling Environment (IN-CORE). IN-CORE enables communities, consultants, and researchers to set up complex interdependent models of an entire community consisting of people, businesses, social institutions, buildings, transportation networks, water networks, and electric power networks and to predict their performance and recovery to hazard scenario events, including uncertainty propagation through the chained models. The modeling environment includes a detailed building inventory, hazard scenario models, building and infrastructure damage (fragility) and recovery functions, social science data-driven household and business models, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of local economies. An important aspect of IN-CORE is the characterization of uncertainty and its propagation throughout the chained models of the platform.Three illustrative examples of community testbeds are presented that look at hazard impacts and recovery on population, economics, physical services, and social services. An overview of the IN-CORE technology and scientific implementation is described with a focus on four key community stability areas (CSA) that encompass an array of community resilience metrics (CRM) and support community resilience informed decision-making. Each testbed within IN-CORE has been developed by a team of engineers, social scientists, urban planners, and economists. Community models, begin with a community description, i.e., people, businesses, buildings, infrastructure, and progresses to the damage and loss of functions caused by a hazard scenario, i.e., a flood, tornado, hurricane, or earthquake. This process is accomplished through chaining of modular algorithms, as described. The baseline community characteristics and the hazard-induced damage sets are the initial conditions for the recovery models, which have been the least studied area of community resilience but arguably one of the most important. Communities can then test the effect of mitigation and/or policies and compare the effects of “what if” scenarios on physical, social, and economic metrics with the only requirement being that the change much be able to be numerically modeled in IN-CORE.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching impacts on every aspect of human life since the first confirmed case in December 2019. Costa Rica reported its first case of COVID-19 in March 2020, coinciding with a notable correlation between the occurrence of disaster events at the municipal scale over the past five decades. In Costa Rica, over 90% of disasters are hydrometeorological in nature, while geological disasters have caused significant economic and human losses throughout the country's history. To analyze the relationship between COVID-19 cases and disaster events in Costa Rica, two Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) were used to statistically evaluate the influence of socio-environmental parameters such as population density, social development index, road density, and non-forested areas. The results showed that population and road density are the most critical factors in explaining the spread of COVID-19, while population density and social development index can provide insights into disaster events at the municipal level in Costa Rica. This study provides valuable information for understanding municipal vulnerability and exposure to disasters in Costa Rica and can serve as a model for other countries to assess disaster risk.

On September 2nd, 2022, an intense and prolonged rainfall event caused severe flooding, landslides, debris flows, and groundwater rise, resulting in substantial damage, particularly in the northern slopes of Sredna Gora Mountain in Central Bulgaria. Various methodologies, including field analysis, remote sensing, and GIS tools, were employed to analyze the disaster's causes and field conditions. Active sediment sources, deposition patterns, and mapping techniques were used to document the disaster's impact. The results showed that the disaster resulted from the formation of numerous landslides, and rapid hydrological response led to riverine flooding, high-speed flows, and sediment deposition. An important contribution of this study is the generated landslide inventory map, that can be used for mountain road reconstruction and the planning of mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of disasters on consumption in Thailand and the Philippines, using three major natural hazards for each country, including the 2004 tsunami, the 2011 and 2016-17 floods in Thailand, and typhoons Bopha, Haiyan and Meranti in the Philippines. To examine the effects of a disaster on total consumption, this study uses an interrupted timeseries analysis. A decline in consumption is observed after a disaster in Thailand, stemming from a reduction in expenditure of the services sector including recreation, restaurants, and hotels, though the decline is partially offset by increased spending on non-durable goods. For the Philippines, declines in overall consumer spending are observed in response to these disasters with no specific sectoral responses in the sample. When a disaster hits, reactions from governments are crucial to providing immediate help to victims, which could have an impact on consumption and overall economic activity. These reactions take the form of emergency relief and assistance including compensation schemes, as well as helping with reconstruction. However, developing longer-term disaster mitigation and resilience policies is also crucial to prevent or prepare for future disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Coinciding with the rising non-communicable disease (NCD) prevalence worldwide is the increasing frequency and severity of natural hazards. Protecting populations with NCDs against natural hazards is ever more pressing given their increased risk of morbidity and mortality in disaster contexts. This investigation examined Hurricane Maria’s impacts across ten lower SES municipalities in Puerto Rico with varying community characteristics and hurricane impacts to understand experiences of supporting individuals with NCD management in the six-month period following the hurricane. Methods We conducted 40 qualitative interviews with mayors, first responders, faith leaders, community leaders, and municipal employees from 10 municipalities in Puerto Rico. Using QSR NVivo software, we deductively and inductively coded interview transcripts and undertook thematic analysis to characterize community-level hurricane impact and consequences for NCD management, and to identify convergent and divergent themes. Results Damages to infrastructure, including healthcare facilities and roadways, complicated the provision of timely health care for NCDs, patient transport, and pharmaceutical/medical supply chain continuity. Lengthy power outages at both healthcare facilities and private residences were barriers to healthcare service delivery, use of medical equipment, and storage of prescription medications with refrigeration, and led to a widespread mental health crisis. Cascading failures such as fuel shortages further compounded these challenges. The consequences of these impacts included the reported exacerbation of health conditions and loss of life among NCD patients. Conclusions Study findings identify contributors to morbidity and mortality among individuals with NCDs following Hurricane Maria. With the growing frequency of catastrophic disasters from natural hazards, the experiences of communities that endured these impacts offer important lessons regarding policies and practices to better support community disaster resilience and address the evolving preparedness needs of NCD patients.