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Aim: To estimate the number of children living with cerebral palsy (CP) in England and Wales in 2013 by severity, and to extrapolate this figure to 2020.Method: Data from the North of England Collaborative Cerebral Palsy Survey for births during the period 1991 to 2000 were restricted to individuals aged at or above 3 years to estimate the prevalence of CP and to calculate 15-year survival by severity according to the number of severe impairments and lifestyle assessment score. The number of 3- to 15-year-olds with CP of different severity in England and Wales was estimated in 2013 and 2019 using actual and nationally projected births.Results: Cumulative survival estimates up to the age of 16 years in children with CP differ significantly by severity, ranging between 97 per cent and 100 per cent for children with non-severe CP, and between 64 per cent and 67 per cent for those with the most severe CP. By the end of 2013, the estimated number of children aged 3 to 15 years living with CP in England and Wales will be about 20 500 rising to approximately 22 100 by 2020, a 7.5 per cent increase.Interpretation: Owing to an increasing population, the number of children living with CP in England and Wales will increase by 2020. This will have significant implications for health and social care service planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To estimate the risk of developing cancer in relation to the typical radiation doses received from a range of X-ray guided cardiac catheterisations in children, taking variable survival into account.Methods: Radiation doses were estimated for 2749 procedures undertaken at five UK hospitals using Monte Carlo simulations. The lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer incidence was estimated using models developed by the Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation committee, based on both normal life expectancy, and as a function of attained age, from 20 to 80 years, to take reduced life expectancy into account.Results: The radiation-related risks from these procedures are dominated by lung and breast cancer (for females). Assuming normal life expectancy, central LAR estimates for cancer incidence, based on median doses, ranged from <1 in 2000 for atrial septal defect occlusions to as high as 1 in 150 for valve replacements. For a reduced life expectancy of 50 years, estimated risks are lower by a factor of around 7. For conditions with especially poor survival (age 20 years), such as hypoplastic left heart syndrome, estimated cancer risks attributable to radiation were <1 in 20 000.Conclusions: Based on recent UK radiation dose levels, the risk of cancer following cardiac catheterisations is relatively low and strongly modified by survival and the type of procedure. The risk of breast cancer, especially following pulmonary artery angioplasty and valve replacements, is the greatest concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]