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ObjectiveTo evaluate the associations between long-term change and variability in glycemia with risk of heart failure (HF) among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).Research design and methodsAmong participants with T2DM enrolled in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial, variability in HbA1c was assessed from stabilization of HbA1c following enrollment (8 months) to 3 years of follow-up as follows: average successive variability (ASV) (average absolute difference between successive values), coefficient of variation (SD/mean), and SD. Participants with HF at baseline or within 3 years of enrollment were excluded. Adjusted Cox models were used to evaluate the association of percent change (from baseline to 3 years of follow-up) and variability in HbA1c over the first 3 years of enrollment and subsequent risk of HF.ResultsThe study included 8,576 patients. Over a median follow-up of 6.4 years from the end of variability measurements at year 3, 388 patients had an incident HF hospitalization. Substantial changes in HbA1c were significantly associated with higher risk of HF (hazard ratio [HR] for ≥10% decrease 1.32 [95% CI 1.08-1.75] and for ≥10% increase 1.55 [1.19-2.04]; reference

Following regulatory guidance set forth in 2008 by the US Food and Drug Administration for new drugs for type 2 diabetes mellitus, many large randomized, controlled trials have been conducted with the primary goal of assessing the safety of antihyperglycemic medications on the primary end point of major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Heart failure (HF) was not specifically mentioned in the US Food and Drug Administration guidance and therefore it was not a focus of these studies when planned. Several trials subsequently showed the impact of antihyperglycemic drugs on HF outcomes, which were not originally specified as the primary end point of the trials. The most impressive finding has been the substantial and consistent risk reduction in HF hospitalization seen across 4 trials of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. However, to date, these results have not led to regulatory approval of any of these drugs for a HF indication or a recommendation for use by US HF guidelines. It is therefore important to explore to what extent persuasive treatment effects on nonprimary end points can be used to support regulatory claims and guideline recommendations. This topic was discussed by researchers, clinicians, industry sponsors, regulators, and representatives from professional societies, who convened on the US Food and Drug Administration campus on March 6, 2019. This report summarizes these discussions and the key takeaway messages from this meeting.

ObjectiveTo develop and validate a novel, machine learning-derived model to predict the risk of heart failure (HF) among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).Research design and methodsUsing data from 8,756 patients free at baseline of HF, with

In patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI), therapies that could further reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes are needed. In this international registry-based, randomized, double-blind trial, patients without prior diabetes or chronic heart failure, presenting with acute MI and impaired left ventricular systolic function, were randomly assigned 10 mg of dapagliflozin or placebo, given once daily. The primary outcome was the hierarchical composite of death, hospitalization for heart failure, nonfatal MI, atrial fibrillation/flutter, type 2 diabetes mellitus, New York Heart Association Functional Classification at the last visit, and body weight decrease of 5% or greater at the last visit using the win ratio analysis method. The key secondary outcome was the same hierarchical composite excluding the body weight component. We enrolled 4017 patients of whom 2019 were assigned to dapagliflozin and 1998 to placebo. The analysis of the primary hierarchical composite outcome resulted in significantly more wins for dapagliflozin than for placebo (win ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20 to 1.50; P<0.001). The win ratio outcome, which was adopted in a change of analysis during trial performance because of low event accrual, was mainly driven by the added cardiometabolic outcomes. The composite of time to cardiovascular death/hospitalization for heart failure occurred in 50/2019 (2.5%) patients assigned to dapagliflozin and 52/1998 (2.6%) patients assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.64 to 1.40). The rates of other cardiovascular events were low, with differences between the groups not reaching nominal statistical significance. No safety concerns were identified. In patients with acute MI as noted above, after approximately 1 year of treatment with dapagliflozin there were significant benefits with regard to improvement in cardiometabolic outcomes but no impact on the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure compared with placebo. (Funded by AstraZeneca; ClinicalTrial.gov number, NCT04564742.) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims To evaluate the performance of the WATCH-DM risk score, a clinical risk score for heart failure (HF), in patients with dysglycaemia and in combination with natriuretic peptides (NPs). Methods and results Adults with diabetes/pre-diabetes free of HF at baseline from four cohort studies (ARIC, CHS, FHS, and MESA) were included. The machine learning-[WATCH-DM(ml)] and integer-based [WATCH-DM(i)] scores were used to estimate the 5-year risk of incident HF. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) statistic. Improvement in model performance with the addition of NP levels was assessed by C-index and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI). Of the 8938 participants included, 3554 (39.8%) had diabetes and 432 (4.8%) developed HF within 5 years. The WATCH-DM(ml) and WATCH-DM(i) scores demonstrated high discrimination for predicting HF risk among individuals with dysglycaemia (C-indices = 0.80 and 0.71, respectively), with no evidence of miscalibration (GND P =0.10). The C-index of elevated NP levels alone for predicting incident HF among individuals with dysglycaemia was significantly higher among participants with low/intermediate (<13) vs. high (=13)WATCH-DM(i) scores [0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.68-0.74) vs. 0.64 (95% confidence interval 0.61-0.66)]. When NP levels were combined with the WATCH-DM(i) score, HF risk discrimination improvement and NRI varied across the spectrum of risk with greater improvement observed at low/intermediate risk [WATCH-DM(i)<13] vs. high risk [WATCH-DM(i) =13] (C-index = 0.73 vs. 0.71; NRI = 0.45 vs. 0.17). Conclusion TheWATCH-DM risk score can accurately predict incident HF risk in community-based individuals with dysglycaemia. The addition of NP levels is associated with greater improvement in the HF risk prediction performance among individuals with low/intermediate risk than those with high risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2008, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a guidance to industry statement concerning evaluation of the cardiovascular (CV) safety of new antihyperglycaemic therapies for type 2 diabetes. Fifteen CV outcome trials assessing three novel classes of antihyperglycaemic therapies, DPP‐4 inhibitors, GLP‐1 receptor agonists and SGLT‐2 inhibitors, were completed by the end of 2018 and several others are ongoing. In addition, one comparative insulin trial also has been completed. None of these trials reported an increase in risk for major adverse CV events (MACE), and six agents have demonstrated CV benefits. This experience has led to the first FDA‐approved indications for antihyperglycaemic medications to reduce the risk of CV death (empagliflozin) and to reduce the risk of MACE (liraglutide, canagliflozin), both indications specific to patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Because of the aggregate results from dedicated CV outcomes trials conducted in response to the FDA guidance statement, the contemporary paradigm for treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes has evolved substantially. However, the guidance has substantially increased the cost of developing new medications to address this important disease that afflicts hundreds of millions of adults worldwide, with reduction in quality of life as well as in life expectancy. The cost burden of drug development of medications proven effective that may directly impact cost to patients and to their insurers might be alleviated by modifications to the present guidance statement. These include areas of trial design, aspects of trial operation, expansion of composite outcomes to include broader component CV outcomes and continued evolution of analytic methodology. The guidance statement will benefit from consideration of a number of modifications to support continued innovation and, of course, the safety of marketed medications for type 2 diabetes. However, the requirement to assess each new antihyperglycaemic medication in at least one large‐scale standard randomized clinical outcomes trial should remain, so that clinicians can be reassured about the favourable efficacy/safety profiles of the medications they prescribe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) exhibit an increased risk for cardiovascular (CV) events. Hyperglycaemia itself contributes to the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis and heart failure (HF) in these patients, but glucose-lowering strategies studied to date have had little to no impact on reducing CV risk, especially in patients with a long duration of T2D and prevalent CV disease (CVD). Sodium glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are a novel class of anti-hyperglycaemic medications that increase urinary glucose excretion, thus improving glycaemic control independent of insulin. The recently published CV outcome trial, EMPA-REG OUTCOME, demonstrated in 7020 patients with T2D and prevalent CVD that the SGLT2-inhibitor empagliflozin significantly reduced the combined CV endpoint of CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke vs. placebo in a population of patients with T2D and prevalent atherosclerotic CVD. In addition and quite unexpectedly, empagliflozin significantly and robustly reduced the individual endpoints of CV death, overall mortality, and hospitalization for HF in this high-risk population. Various factors beyond glucose control such as weight loss, blood pressure lowering and sodium depletion, renal haemodynamic effects, effects on myocardial energetics, and/or neurohormonal effects, among others may contribute to these beneficial effects of SGLT2-inhibition. The present review summarizes known and postulated effects of SGLT2-inhibition on the CV system and discusses the role of SGLT2-inhibition for the treatment of high-risk patients with T2D and CVD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Metformin is first-line therapy for type 2 diabetes mellitus, although its effects on the cardiovascular system are unproved.Methods: In this post hoc analysis, patients in SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus) with baseline biomarker samples (n=12 156) were classified as ever versus never taking metformin during the trial period. Associations between metformin exposure and outcomes were estimated with inverse probability of treatment weighting Cox modeling for the composite end point of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke, as well as cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality, with biomarkers included as covariates. Additional sensitivity analyses included propensity score matching and Cox multivariable models.Results: Of the 12 156 patients with baseline biomarker samples, 8971 (74%) had metformin exposure, 1611 (13%) had prior heart failure, and 1332 (11%) had at least moderate chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤45 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2). Metformin use was associated with no difference in risk for the composite end point (hazard ratio for inverse probability of treatment weighting, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.76-1.11]) but lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for inverse probability of treatment weighting, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.59-0.95]). There was no significant relationship between metformin use and these end points in patients with prior heart failure or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease.Conclusions: In a cohort of 12 156 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk, metformin use was associated with lower rates of all-cause mortality, including after adjustment for clinical variables and biomarkers, but not lower rates of the composite end point of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke. This association was most apparent in patients without prior heart failure or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease.Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01107886. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We appreciate the letter written by Drs Mordi, Mohan, and Lang describing their findings of reduced left ventricular mass index in patients with coronary artery disease and insulin resistance or pre-diabetes mellitus randomized to 12 months of treatment with metformin compared with placebo. 2019, 140, 1004-1014, doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.119.040144 2 Sambe T, Mason RP, Dawoud H, Bhatt DL, Malinski T. Metformin treatment decreases nitroxidative stress, restores nitric oxide bioavailability and endothelial function beyond glucose control. [Extracted from the article]

Background: The strength of association and optimal levels for risk factors related to excess risk of death and cardiovascular outcomes in type 1 diabetes mellitus have been sparsely studied.Methods: In a national observational cohort study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1998 to 2014, we assessed relative prognostic importance of 17 risk factors for death and cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus. We used Cox regression and machine learning analyses. In addition, we examined optimal cut point levels for glycohemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus were followed up until death or study end on December 31, 2013. The primary outcomes were death resulting from all causes, fatal/nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, fatal/nonfatal stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure.Results: Of 32 611 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, 1809 (5.5%) died during follow-up over 10.4 years. The strongest predictors for death and cardiovascular outcomes were glycohemoglobin, albuminuria, duration of diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Glycohemoglobin displayed ≈2% higher risk for each 1-mmol/mol increase (equating to ≈22% per 1% glycohemoglobin difference), whereas low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with 35% to 50% greater risk for each 1-mmol/L increase. Microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria was associated with 2 to 4 times greater risk for cardiovascular complications and death. Glycohemoglobin <53 mmol/mol (7.0%), systolic blood pressure <140 mm Hg, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <2.5 mmol/L were associated with significantly lower risk for outcomes observed.Conclusions: Glycohemoglobin, albuminuria, duration of diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol appear to be the most important predictors for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Lower levels for glycohemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol than contemporary guideline target levels appear to be associated with significantly lower risk for outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing rates of obesity and diabetes have driven corresponding increases in related cardiorenal and metabolic diseases. In many patients, these conditions occur together, further increasing morbidity and mortality risks to the individual. Yet all too often, the risk factors for these disorders are not addressed promptly in clinical practice, leading to irreversible pathologic progression. To address this gap, we convened a Task Force of experts in cardiology, nephrology, endocrinology, and primary care to develop recommendations for early identification and intervention in obesity, diabetes, and other cardiorenal and metabolic diseases. The recommendations include screening and diagnosis, early interventions with lifestyle, and when and how to implement medical therapies. These recommendations are organized into primary and secondary prevention along the continuum from obesity through the metabolic syndrome, prediabetes, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and heart failure (HF). The goal of early and intensive intervention is primary prevention of comorbidities or secondary prevention to decrease further worsening of disease and reduce morbidity and mortality. These efforts will reduce clinical inertia and may improve patients' well-being and adherence. • Diabetes, obesity and cardiorenal/metabolic disease often occur in the same patient. • Suboptimal metabolic control has not improved in past 20 years despite new medications. • Traditional, stepwise treatment often leads to inertia and morbidity and mortality. • Early intensive combination intervention can prevent disease progression and events. • Recommendations cover early intervention in both primary and secondary prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) have a high risk of cardiovascular complications, but it is unknown to what extent fulfilling all cardiovascular treatment goals is associated with residual risk of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in those with T1DM compared with the general population.Methods: We included all patients ≥18 years of age with T1DM who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2014, a total of 33 333 patients, each matched for age and sex with 5 controls without diabetes mellitus randomly selected from the population. Patients with T1DM were categorized according to number of risk factors not at target: glycohemoglobin, blood pressure, albuminuria, smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Risk of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure hospitalization, and stroke was examined in relation to the number of risk factors at target.Results: The mean follow-up was 10.4 years in the diabetes group. Overall, 2074 of 33 333 patients with diabetes mellitus and 4141 of 166 529 controls died. Risk for all outcomes increased stepwise for each additional risk factor not at target. Adjusted hazard ratios for patients achieving all risk factor targets compared with controls were 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-1.85) for all-cause mortality, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.15-2.88) for acute myocardial infarction, 1.97 (95% CI, 1.04-3.73) for heart failure hospitalization, and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.51-2.68) for stroke. The hazard ratio for patients versus controls with none of the risk factors meeting target was 7.33 (95% CI, 5.08-10.57) for all-cause mortality, 12.34 (95% CI, 7.91-19.48) for acute myocardial infarction, 15.09 (95% CI, 9.87-23.09) for heart failure hospitalization, and 12.02 (95% CI, 7.66-18.85) for stroke.Conclusions: A steep-graded association exists between decreasing number of cardiovascular risk factors at target and major adverse cardiovascular outcomes among patients with T1DM. However, risks for all outcomes were numerically higher for patients with T1DM compared with controls, even when all risk factors were at target, with risk for acute myocardial infarction and heart failure hospitalization statistically significantly higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background--Diabetes mellitus and heart failure frequently coexist. However, few diabetes mellitus trials have prospectively evaluated and adjudicated heart failure as an end point. Methods and Results--A total of 16492 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and a history of, or at risk of, cardiovascular events were randomized to saxagliptin or placebo (mean follow-up, 2.1 years). The primary end point was the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke. Hospitalization for heart failure was a predefined component of the secondary end point. Baseline N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide was measured in 12301 patients. More patients treated with saxagliptin (289, 3.5%) were hospitalized for heart failure compared with placebo (228, 2.8%; hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence intercal, 1.07-1.51 ;P=0.007). Corresponding rates at 12monthswere 1.9% versus 1.3% (hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.88; P=0.002), with no significant difference thereafter (time-varying interaction, P=0.017). Subjects at greatest risk of hospitalization for heart failure had previous heart failure, an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤60 mL/min, or elevated baseline levels of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. There was no evidence of heterogeneity between N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide and saxagliptin (P for interaction=0.46), although the absolute risk excess for heart failure with saxagliptin was greatest in the highest N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide quartile (2.1 %). Even in patients at high risk of hospitalization for heart failure, the risk of the primary and secondary end points were similar between treatment groups. Conclusions--In the context of balanced primary and secondary end points, saxagliptin treatment was associated with an increased risk or hospitalization for heart failure. This increase in risk was highest among patients with elevated levels of natriuretic peptides, previous heart failure, or chronic kidney disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response from the author of the article "Heart Failure, Saxagliptin, and Diabetes Mellitus: Observations From the SAVOR-TIMI 53 Randomized Trial" in the previous issue is presented.