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Abstract: This study of the relation of social problems to mortality in the context of growth and decline in 50 New York counties is guided by an ecological framework that sees communities depending on their many agencies and services for maintaining and improving the well-being of residents despite external problems/threats. Two all-purpose measures of threats are community growth and decline, especially the latter. If the specialized agencies typical of more urbanized places are weak, threats generate internal social problems like crime and unemployment and these lower population health. Findings: when urbanization is held constant, growth is negatively associated with poverty-related problems while decline predicts deviance. Both poverty and deviance problems, in turn, predict mortality. The applied implications of this model are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]