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Background: There has been a steady increase in the number of primary care patients receiving long-term maintenance antidepressant treatment, despite limited evidence of a benefit of this treatment beyond 8 months., Objective: The ANTidepressants to prevent reLapse in dEpRession (ANTLER) trial investigated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antidepressant medication in preventing relapse in UK primary care., Design: This was a Phase IV, double-blind, pragmatic, multisite, individually randomised parallel-group controlled trial, with follow-up at 6, 12, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. Participants were randomised using minimisation on centre, type of antidepressant and baseline depressive symptom score above or below the median using Clinical Interview Schedule - Revised (two categories). Statisticians were blind to allocation for the outcome analyses., Setting: General practices in London, Bristol, Southampton and York., Participants: Individuals aged 18-74 years who had experienced at least two episodes of depression and had been taking antidepressants for ≥ 9 months but felt well enough to consider stopping their medication. Those who met an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems , Tenth Revision, diagnosis of depression or with other psychiatric conditions were excluded., Intervention: At baseline, participants were taking citalopram 20 mg, sertraline 100 mg, fluoxetine 20 mg or mirtazapine 30 mg. They were randomised to either remain on their current medication or discontinue medication after a tapering period., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was the time, in weeks, to the beginning of the first depressive episode after randomisation. This was measured by a retrospective Clinical Interview Schedule - Revised that assessed the onset of a depressive episode in the previous 12 weeks, and was conducted at 12, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. The depression-related resource use was collected over 12 months from medical records and patient-completed questionnaires. Quality-adjusted life-years were calculated using the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version., Results: Between 9 March 2017 and 1 March 2019, we randomised 238 participants to antidepressant continuation (the maintenance group) and 240 participants to antidepressant discontinuation (the discontinuation group). The time to relapse of depression was shorter in the discontinuation group, with a hazard ratio of 2.06 (95% confidence interval 1.56 to 2.70; p  < 0.0001). By 52 weeks, relapse was experienced by 39% of those who continued antidepressants and 56% of those who discontinued antidepressants. The secondary analysis revealed that people who discontinued experienced more withdrawal symptoms than those who remained on medication, with the largest difference at 12 weeks. In the discontinuation group, 37% (95% confidence interval 28% to 45%) of participants remained on their randomised medication until the end of the trial. In total, 39% (95% confidence interval 32% to 45%) of participants in the discontinuation group returned to their original antidepressant compared with 20% (95% confidence interval 15% to 25%) of participants in maintenance group. The health economic evaluation demonstrated that participants randomised to discontinuation had worse utility scores at 3 months (-0.037, 95% confidence interval -0.059 to -0.015) and fewer quality-adjusted life-years over 12 months (-0.019, 95% confidence interval -0.035 to -0.003) than those randomised to continuation. The discontinuation pathway, besides giving worse outcomes, also cost more [extra £2.71 per patient over 12 months (95% confidence interval -£36.10 to £37.07)] than the continuation pathway, although the cost difference was not significant., Conclusions: Patients who discontinue long-term maintenance antidepressants in primary care are at increased risk of relapse and withdrawal symptoms. However, a substantial proportion of patients can discontinue antidepressants without relapse. Our findings will give patients and clinicians an estimate of the likely benefits and harms of stopping long-term maintenance antidepressants and improve shared decision-making. The participants may not have been representative of all people on long-term maintenance treatment and we could study only a restricted range of antidepressants and doses. Identifying patients who will not relapse if they discontinued antidepressants would be clinically important., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15969819 and EudraCT 2015-004210-26., Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 25, No. 69. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: In the predictD-intervention, GPs used a personalised biopsychosocial programme to prevent depression. This reduced the incidence of major depression by 21.0%, although the results were not statistically significant., Aim: To determine whether the predictD-intervention is effective at preventing anxiety in primary care patients without depression or anxiety., Design and Setting: Secondary study of a cluster randomised trial with practices randomly assigned to either the predictD-intervention or usual care. This study was conducted in seven Spanish cities from October 2010 to July 2012., Method: In each city, 10 practices and two GPs per practice, as well as four to six patients every recruiting day, were randomly selected until there were 26-27 eligible patients for each GP. The endpoint was cumulative incidence of anxiety as measured by the PRIME-MD screening tool over 18 months., Results: A total of 3326 patients without depression and 140 GPs from 70 practices consented and were eligible to participate; 328 of these patients were removed because they had an anxiety syndrome at baseline. Of the 2998 valid patients, 2597 (86.6%) were evaluated at the end of the study. At 18 months, 10.4% (95% CI = 8.7% to 12.1%) of the patients in the predictD-intervention group developed anxiety compared with 13.1% (95% CI = 11.4% to 14.8%) in the usual-care group (absolute difference = -2.7% [95% CI = -5.1% to -0.3%]; P = 0.029)., Conclusion: A personalised intervention delivered by GPs for the prevention of depression provided a modest but statistically significant reduction in the incidence of anxiety., (© The Authors.)

Background: Antidepressants are used both for treating acute episodes and for prophylaxis to prevent future episodes of depression, also called maintenance treatment. This article describes the protocol for a randomised controlled trial (ANTLER: ANTidepressants to prevent reLapse in dEpRession) to investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in UK primary care of continuing on long-term maintenance antidepressants compared with a placebo in preventing relapse of depression in those who have taken antidepressants for more than 9 months and who are currently well enough to consider stopping maintenance treatment., Methods/design: The ANTLER trial is an individually randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in which participants are randomised to remain on active medication or to take an identical placebo after a tapering period of 2 months. Eligible participants are those who: are between the ages of 18 and 74 years; have had at least two episodes of depression; and have been taking antidepressants for 9 months or more and are currently taking citalopram 20 mg, sertraline 100 mg, fluoxetine 20 mg or mirtazapine 30 mg but are well enough to consider stopping their medication. The participants will be followed up at 6, 12, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. The primary outcome will be the time in weeks to the beginning of the first episode of depression after randomisation. This will be measured using a retrospective version of the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised administered at 12, 26, 39 and 52 weeks. Secondary outcomes will include depressive and anxiety symptoms, adverse effects, withdrawal symptoms, emotional processing tasks, quality of life and the resources and costs used. We will also perform a cost-effectiveness analysis based on results of the trial., Discussion: The ANTLER trial findings will inform primary care prescribing practice by providing a valid and generalisable estimate of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of long-term maintenance treatment with antidepressants in UK primary care., Trial Registration: Controlled Trials ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN15969819. Registered on 21 September 2015.

Background: Depression is viewed as a major and increasing public health issue, as it causes high distress in the people experiencing it and considerable financial costs to society. Efforts are being made to reduce this burden by preventing depression. A critical component of this strategy is the ability to assess the individual level and profile of risk for the development of major depression. This paper presents the cost-effectiveness of a personalized intervention based on the risk of developing depression carried out in primary care, compared with usual care., Methods: Cost-effectiveness analyses are nested within a multicentre, clustered, randomized controlled trial of a personalized intervention to prevent depression. The study was carried out in 70 primary care centres from seven cities in Spain. Two general practitioners (GPs) were randomly sampled from those prepared to participate in each centre (i.e. 140 GPs), and 3326 participants consented and were eligible to participate. The intervention included the GP communicating to the patient his/her individual risk for depression and personal risk factors and the construction by both GPs and patients of a psychosocial programme tailored to prevent depression. In addition, GPs carried out measures to activate and empower the patients, who also received a leaflet about preventing depression. GPs were trained in a 10- to 15-h workshop. Costs were measured from a societal and National Health care perspective. Qualityadjustedlife years were assessed using the EuroQOL five dimensions questionnaire. The time horizon was 18 months., Results: With a willingness-to-pay threshold of €10,000 (£8568) the probability of cost-effectiveness oscillated from 83% (societal perspective) to 89% (health perspective). If the threshold was increased to €30,000 (£25,704), the probability of being considered cost-effective was 94% (societal perspective) and 96%, respectively (health perspective). The sensitivity analysis confirmed these results., Conclusions: Compared with usual care, an intervention based on personal predictors of risk of depression implemented by GPs is a cost-effective strategy to prevent depression. This type of personalized intervention in primary care should be further developed and evaluated., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01151982. Registered on June 29, 2010.

Objective: Psychological distress, defined as symptoms of depression and anxiety, is an increasingly important public health issue in developing countries. Little is known about the extent to which adverse dietary factors are associated with psychological distress in South Asians. Our aim was to compare the associations of diet and psychological distress in men and women in Goa, India., Design: Cross-sectional study of consecutive attendees in nine urban and rural general practices in Goa, India in 2004-2005. All participants completed an FFQ on their dietary intake in a typical week. Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10), a WHO-validated screening instrument., Results: Consecutive attendees (n 1512; 601 men and 911 women) aged 30 to 75 years participated. Moderate and high scores of psychological distress were detected in significantly more women than men (eighty-eight men v. 264 women, unadjusted OR = 0·39; 95 % CI 0·29, 0·52). Those who ate one or more portions of fish weekly had nearly half the prevalence of distress in both sexes (women, OR = 0·52; 95 % CI 0·29, 0·91; men, OR = 0·50; 95 % CI 0·25, 0·99) and this was independent of age, marital status, education, income, religion and living alone., Conclusions: Psychological distress is significantly lower with fish intake in both sexes. Further longitudinal work is needed to establish temporal relationships. Addressing psychological distress is becoming an increasingly significant public health priority in both high- and low-income countries.

Background: The predictD study developed and validated a risk algorithm for predicting the onset of major depression in primary care. We aimed to explore the opinion of patients about knowing their risk for depression and the values and criteria upon which these opinions are based., Methods: A maximum variation sample of patients was taken, stratified by city, age, gender, immigrant status, socio-economic status and lifetime depression. The study participants were 52 patients belonging to 13 urban health centres in seven different cities around Spain. Seven Focus Groups (FGs) were given held with primary care patients, one for each of the seven participating cities., Results: The results showed that patients generally welcomed knowing their risk for depression. Furthermore, in light of available evidence several patients proposed potential changes in their lifestyles to prevent depression. Patients generally preferred to ask their General Practitioners (GPs) for advice, though mental health specialists were also mentioned. They suggested that GPs undertake interventions tailored to each patient, from a "patient-centred" approach, with certain communication skills, and giving advice to help patients cope with the knowledge that they are at risk of becoming depressed., Conclusions: Patients are pleased to be informed about their risk for depression. We detected certain beliefs, attitudes, values, expectations and behaviour among the patients that were potentially useful for future primary prevention programmes on depression.

Bereaved spouses or partners are thought to be at increased risk of morbidity and mortality. However, there are few large prospective studies and results are inconsistent. We estimated the relative mortality, prescription of psychotropic medication and use of primary medical care services in adults whose cohabitee died of cancer. To do this, we undertook a cohort study using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) UK primary care database. Participants were 1) people aged over 40, who were registered with general practices and had been exposed to the death of a cohabitee from cancer; and 2) a comparison cohort frequency matched on five year age bands and sex who were cohabiting with a living partner. The baseline was chosen as six months before the date of the cancer death for the exposed group and a random date for the unexposed group. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using random effects Poisson regression to account for clustering within general practices and adjusting for other key variables. 92,129 patients were studied for a median follow up of 4 years. Cohabitees of patients who died of cancer were less likely to die of any cause (IRR 0.71, CI 0.68-0.74) after adjustment for age, gender, number of non-psychotropic prescriptions 6 months before the cancer death/index date, use of psychotropic medication 6 months before the cancer death/index date, smoking, alcohol and area deprivation score. Exposed patients were more likely to receive a prescription for antidepressant or hypnotic medication and to attend their GP both before and after the death of the cohabitee. In conclusion, we did not confirm increased mortality in cohabitees of people dying from cancer.

Background: Depression, anxiety and physical function may be bi-directionally related. We aim to estimate the strength of the longitudinal associations between depression, anxiety and physical function., Methods: Prospective cohort study of general practice attendees across Europe (N=4757) assessed at baseline, 6, 12 and 24 months. Main outcome measures were Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV major depression, Patient Health Questionnaire anxiety and Short Form 12 physical function. Complete-case analyses using random coefficient models and logistic regression models were performed., Results: Those with depression (β=-1.90, 95% CI -3.42 to -0.39), anxiety (β=-4.12, 95% CI -5.39 to -2.86) or depression and anxiety (β=-5.74, 95% CI -7.38 to -4.10) had lower levels of physical function at baseline and over time compared with no diagnosis after adjustment for potential confounders. Physical function increased over time, but the rate of increase was not different between the groups. When compared with depression, those with anxiety (β=-2.22, 95% CI -4.08 to -0.36) or depression and anxiety (β=-3.83, 95% CI -5.95 to -1.71) had significantly lower levels of physical function at baseline. Lower levels of physical function at baseline were associated with onset of depression (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.10) but even stronger with anxiety (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.52 to 5.12) or depression and anxiety (OR 5.05, 95% CI 2.55 to 9.99) during 24 months compared with no dysfunction, after adjustment for potential confounders., Conclusion: It is essential to prevent lower levels of physical function as this is likely to lead to onset of depression and anxiety over time.

Background: In 2003, the Committee on Safety of Medicines (CSM) advised against treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) other than fluoxetine in children, due to a possible increased risk of suicidal behaviour. This study examined the effects of this safety warning on general practitioners' depression diagnosing and prescription behaviour in children., Methods and Findings: We identified a cohort of 1,502,753 children (<18 y; registered with GP for >6 m) in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) UK primary care database. Trends in incidence of depression diagnoses, symptoms and antidepressant prescribing were examined 1995-2009, accounting for deprivation, age and gender. We used segmented regression analysis to assess changes in prescription rates. Overall, 45,723 (3%) children had ≥ 1 depression-related entry in their clinical records. SSRIs were prescribed to 16,925 (1%) of children. SSRI prescription rates decreased from 3.2 (95%CI:3.0,3.3) per 1,000 person-years at risk (PYAR) in 2002 to 1.7 (95%CI:1.7,1.8) per 1,000 PYAR in 2005, but have since risen to 2.7 (95%CI:2.6,2.8) per 1,000 PYAR in 2009. Prescription rates for CSM-contraindicated SSRIs citalopram, sertraline and especially paroxetine dropped dramatically after 2002, while rates for fluoxetine and amitriptyline remained stable. After 2005 rates for all antidepressants, except paroxetine and imipramine, started to rise again. Rates for depression diagnoses dropped from 3.0 (95%CI:2.8,3.1) per 1,000 PYAR in 2002 to 2.0 (95%CI:1.9,2.1) per 1,000 PYAR in 2005 and have been stable since. Recording of symptoms saw a steady increase from 1.0 (95%CI:0.8,1.2) per 1,000 PYAR in 1995 to 4.7 (95%CI:4.5,4.8) per 1,000 PYAR in 2009., Conclusions: The rates of depression diagnoses and SSRI prescriptions showed a significant drop around the time of the CSM advice, which was not present in the recording of symptoms. This could indicate caution on the part of GPs in making depression diagnoses and prescribing antidepressants following the CSM advice.

Background: Serotonin 1-A receptors are key regulators of serotonin activity and their dysregulation might be implicated in the emergence of both major depression (MD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Previous studies have yielded inconclusive results as to whether the 5-HT1A receptor gene (HTR1A) has a role in the aetiology of MD and no study up to date has analysed this polymorphism on either pure MD or MD comorbid with GAD., Methods: In this study, 1059 patients taking part in the PREDICT-Gene study were ascertained for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV MD and GAD diagnoses using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview and the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders questionnaire, respectively. They were also genotyped for the C(-1019)G functional polymorphism at the promoter region of HTR1A gene., Results: Genetic variability at HTR1A was significantly associated with MD [odds ratio (OR) = 1.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.14-2.44; P = 0.008], although this effect disappeared after adjusting for GAD (OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 0.96-2.14; P = 0.080). Similarly, a crude association between C(-1019)G polymorphism and GAD was found (OR = 2.54; 95% CI = 1.28-4.86; P = 0.003), but these results became no longer significant after adjusting for MD (OR = 1.97; 95% CI = 0.99-3.91; P = 0.050). However, a main effect of HTR1A G(-1019) allele on comorbid MD-GAD was found (OR = 3.41; 95% CI = 1.44-8.05; P = 0.005) and it remained robust and statistically significant after adjusting by sex, age and family history of psychological problems (OR = 2.82; 95% CI = 1.18-6.77; P = 0.020)., Conclusion: In our study, the HTR1A C(-1019)G polymorphism was found to be associated to the frequent clinical presentation of comorbid MD and GAD, suggesting a common genetic background for mixed depression and anxiety states. These findings should be considered as preliminary. Future replications in independent samples would be needed to confirm or discard such association.

Objective: To examine incidence, trends, and correlates of parental depression in primary care from 0 to 12 years of child age., Design: Prospective cohort study., Setting: Primary care records from more than 350 general practices in The Health Improvement Network database from 1993 to 2007., Participants: A total of 86 957 mother, father, and child triads identified in The Health Improvement Network database by linking mothers and babies and then identifying an adult household man. Depressed parents were identified using Read code entries for depression and antidepressant prescriptions., Main Exposures: Child age, parental age at the birth, and area deprivation quintile., Main Outcome Measures: Incidence rates for maternal and paternal episodes of depression., Results: Overall incidences of depression from the birth of the child up to age 12 years were 7.53 per 100 person-years for mothers and 2.69 per 100 person-years for fathers. Depression was highest in the first year post partum (13.93 and 3.56 per 100 person-years among mothers and fathers, respectively). By 12 years of child age, 39% of mothers and 21% of fathers had experienced an episode of depression. A history of depression, lower parental age at the birth of the child, and higher social deprivation were associated with a higher incidence of parental depression., Conclusions: Parents are at highest risk for depression in the first year after the birth of their child. Parents with a history of depression, younger parents, and those from deprived areas are particularly vulnerable to depression. There is a need for appropriate recognition and management of parental depression in primary care.

Context: Current evidence suggests that depression is much more prevalent among those with chronic medical conditions compared to the general population. Depression will rank second to cardiovascular disease as a global cause of disability by 2020. With ageing of the population physicians are called upon to treat a higher percentage of patients with chronic medical illness., Objective: To assess the prevalence and incidence of depression and likelihood for new-onset depression in patients with self-reported longstanding disease, disability or infirmity in the sample of primary care attendees., Method: Consecutive family medicine practice attendees aged 18 to 75 years were recruited and followed up after six months. Presence of longstanding disease, disability or infirmity was recorded., Results: Prevalence of major depression was 8.9% in the group of patients reporting longstanding disease compared to 3.1% in the group without longstanding disease. Incidence of major depression after 6 months was 2.7% in the group with longstanding disease and 0.9% in the group without longstanding disease. For the patients with longstanding disease at the baseline it was almost 4 times more likely to have major depression after 6 months than for patients who did not report any longstanding disease at the baseline., Conclusion: The associations between longstanding disease and depression are important in primary care setting.

Studies on the association between the functional uMAOA polymorphism and depression have yielded non-conclusive results up till now. One thousand two hundred twenty eight consecutive Spanish primary care attendees, participating in the PREDICT study, agreed to take part in this genetic PREDICT-Gene study. We explored the association between depression and either high-activity uMAOA alleles or genotypes. Depression was diagnosed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) to establish three different depressive outcomes (ICD-10 Depressive Episode (DE), ICD-10 Severe Depressive Episode (SDE) and DSM-IV Major Depression (MD)). uMAOA genetic variation was determined by PCR amplification and subsequent electrophoresis. Crude and adjusted (gender and/or age) odds ratios, with 95% confidence intervals, were calculated for the associations between allele or genotype frequencies and all three depressive outcomes. We found associations between all three depressive phenotypes and either high-activity alleles or high-activity genotypes in both sexes. The associations were statistically significant for females but not for males. Testing the same associations on the entire sample (males and females) also yielded significant associations between depression and either high-activity alleles or high-activity genotype distribution that were independent of age and/or gender (ICD-10 DE: OR = 1.98; 95% CI: 1.42-1.77; P = 0.00002; ICD-10-SDE: OR = 2.05; 95% CI: 1.38-3.05; P = 0.0002; DSM-IV MD: OR = 1.91; 95% CI: (1.26-2.91); P = 0.0014). Our results provide fairly consistent evidence that high-activity variants of the MAOA promoter polymorphism confer a modestly higher risk for depression., ((c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Previous reports and meta-analyses have yielded inconclusive results as to whether the s/s genotype at the 5-HTTLPR serotonin transporter polymorphism confers increased risk for depression. We tested the association between s/s genotype and depression in a large cohort (n = 737) of Spanish primary care consecutive attendees participating in a European study on predictors for depression in primary care (PREDICT study). Participants were administered the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) depression subscale allowing diagnoses using ICD-10 criteria for depressive episodes. Participants were genotyped to establish 5HTTLPR genotype. Both univariable and multivariable associations between the s/s genotype and depression were tested twice using two different depressive outcomes (ICD-10 depressive episode and ICD-10 severe depressive episode). We found an association between the s/s genotype and both depressive outcomes that was independent of age, sex, family history of psychological problems among first degree relatives and presence of comorbid generalized anxiety disorder. When comparing s/s homozygous versus the rest, the adjusted odds ratio for any ICD-10 depressive episode and for severe ICD-10 depressive episode were 1.50 (95% CI: 1.0-2.2; P = 0.045) and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.1-2.8; P = 0.016), respectively. The association was significantly stronger with increasing severity of depression (chi2 for linear association=6.1; P = 0.013) suggesting a dose-dependent relationship. Our results are consistent with previous reports suggesting a small but independent effect by the s/s 5-HTTLPR genotype increasing the risk for depression., ((c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

Fathers are underrepresented in research on mental health and child outcome. We tested a range of methods of recruitment of fathers to establish feasibility and recruitment rates to obtain a sample for a study on paternal depression and child development. The study took place in North London. Fathers of children aged 6 years and under were approached via: general practice surgeries by post and by face-to-face contact with attendees; child health surveillance clinics face-to-face or via their partners and via hospital postnatal wards face-to-face or by post. Researcher time and associated costs were monitored for each method, and symptoms of depression and anxiety measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Face-to-face recruitment of fathers on the postnatal ward generated the highest return rate of HADS (28/37; 76%), followed by postal recruitment through general practice (41%;124/303). Lower response rates were observed with postal recruitment via postnatal wards (31%), recruitment in child health surveillance clinics (20%) and approaching attendees in general practice (16%). Twelve percent (23/194) and 30% (58/194) of fathers respectively reported depression and anxiety above the cut-off for case-definition. Costs were calculated on pro-rata researcher time. Costs of recruiting one participant ranged from 3 pounds sterling (general practice postal) to 11.75 pounds sterling (child health surveillance clinics), however the general practice attender method was disproportionately expensive (52.50 pounds sterling). This feasibility study shows that it is possible to recruit fathers to mental health studies and provides clear guidance on planning, costing and the expected levels of recruitment for future studies on fathers of young children.

BackgroundThe prevention of depression is a key public health policy priority. PredictD is the first risk algorithm for the prediction of the onset of major depression. Our aim in this study was to model the cost-effectiveness of PredictD in depression prevention in general practice (GP).MethodA decision analytical model was developed to determine the cost-effectiveness of two approaches, each of which was compared to treatment as usual (TAU) over 12 months: (1) the PredictD risk algorithm plus a low-intensity depression prevention programme; and (2) a universal prevention programme in which there was no initial identification of those at risk. The model simulates the incidence of depression and disease progression over 12 months and calculates the net monetary benefit (NMB) from the National Health Service (NHS) perspective.ResultsProviding patients with PredictD and a depression prevention programme prevented 15 (17%) cases of depression in a cohort of 1000 patients over 12 months and had the highest probability of being the optimal choice at a willingness to pay (WTP) of £20 000 for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Universal prevention was strongly dominated by PredictD plus a depression prevention programme in that universal prevention resulted in less QALYs than PredictD plus prevention for a greater cost.ConclusionsUsing PredictD to identify primary-care patients at high risk of depression and providing them with a low-intensity prevention programme is potentially cost-effective at a WTP of £20 000 per QALY. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

BackgroundPredictD is a risk algorithm that was developed to predict risk of onset of major depression over 12 months in general practice attendees in Europe and validated in a similar population in Chile. It was the first risk algorithm to be developed in the field of mental disorders. Our objective was to extend predictD as an algorithm to detect people at risk of major depression over 24 months.MethodParticipants were 4190 adult attendees to general practices in the UK, Spain, Slovenia and Portugal, who were not depressed at baseline and were followed up for 24 months. The original predictD risk algorithm for onset of DSM-IV major depression had already been developed in data arising from the first 12 months of follow-up. In this analysis we fitted predictD to the longer period of follow-up, first by examining only the second year (12–24 months) and then the whole period of follow-up (0–24 months).ResultsThe instrument performed well for prediction of major depression from 12 to 24 months [c-index 0.728, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.675–0.781], or over the whole 24 months (c-index 0.783, 95% CI 0.757–0.809).ConclusionsThe predictD risk algorithm for major depression is accurate over 24 months, extending it current use of prediction over 12 months. This strengthens its use in prevention efforts in general medical settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundThe different incidence rates of, and risk factors for, depression in different countries argue for the need to have a specific risk algorithm for each country or a supranational risk algorithm. We aimed to develop and validate a predictD-Spain risk algorithm (PSRA) for the onset of major depression and to compare the performance of the PSRA with the predictD-Europe risk algorithm (PERA) in Spanish primary care.MethodA prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multi-level logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the PSRA. In Spain (4574), Chile (2133) and another five European countries (5184), 11 891 non-depressed adult primary care attendees formed our at-risk population. The main outcome was DSM-IV major depression (CIDI).ResultsSix variables were patient characteristics or past events (sex, age, sex×age interaction, education, physical child abuse, and lifetime depression) and six were current status [Short Form 12 (SF-12) physical score, SF-12 mental score, dissatisfaction with unpaid work, number of serious problems in very close persons, dissatisfaction with living together at home, and taking medication for stress, anxiety or depression]. The C-index of the PSRA was 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79–0.84]. The Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) was 0.0558 [standard error (s.e.)=0.0071, Zexp=7.88, p<0.0001] mainly due to the increase in sensitivity. Both the IDI and calibration plots showed that the PSRA functioned better than the PERA in Spain.ConclusionsThe PSRA included new variables and afforded an improved performance over the PERA for predicting the onset of major depression in Spain. However, the PERA is still the best option in other European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]